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* Fox News on January 12, 2011…
That sucking sound you hear in Illinois might be jobs and moving vans leaving the state.
In the wee hours of Wednesday morning, Illinois lawmakers squeaked in a massive tax increase at the end of its session before a new legislature, that is unlikely to pass tax increases in a down economy, started Wednesday. Some lawmakers say the increase was desperately needed to balance the state’s fledgling budget. Now both residents and business owners in the “Land of Lincoln” are threatening to move out.
But that’s good news for Illinois’ neighbors to the north in Wisconsin, and they are laying out the welcome mat.
Better Government Association…
Illinois hiked the state income tax rate by 66 percent in 2011 and three years later, according to revised census estimates, the state’s population had grown by more than 20,000. The tax rate dropped down again in 2015 and, since then, the census estimate has plunged 60,000.
* Tribune editorial entitled “‘The Illinois Exodus’: A black comedy or disaster movie?”…
In 2017, a net of 33,703 people departed, dropping the state to sixth-largest, behind Pennsylvania.
What the Tribune doesn’t mention is that these estimates are often revised. Back to the BGA…
The instinct to pounce obscures a statistical quirk of the census: population estimates decried as disastrous on first blush often get revised upwards, sometimes significantly, to little fanfare. That clearly has been the case for Illinois, where a numbers downturn is troubling but far from the freefall some media reports and partisans suggest.
In 2016, for example, the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey population estimate for Illinois was initially listed as 12,801,539 and said to reflect a drop of more than 37,000 from the previous year. In 2017, the initial estimate was pegged at 12,802,023 and said to be down more than 33,000.
The glaring problem, of course, is that the first estimates released for both years were almost identical, so the big back-to-back declines in population that stirred sky-is-falling headlines don’t add up. What got buried in the analysis was that the 2016 estimate was later increased significantly from its original value.
* You also see a lot of this stuff…
Wheeler says progressive tax would 'accelerate' exodus of Illinois citizens https://t.co/sF9aIbw9vF
— McHenry Times (@McHenryTimes1) June 2, 2018
BGA…
The Tax Foundation ranked Minnesota’s overall business tax climate among the nation’s worst. Even so, the state was among Midwestern leaders in population growth, with a 5.1 percent gain since 2010 and a 13.3 percent jump since 2000. The state also has the highest median household income and the lowest poverty rate. […]
When Minnesota imposed its upper-tax bracket in 2013, critics warned it would prompt the affluent to flee. But in the year after the tax was enacted, the number of people filing tax returns showing income in excess of $1 million grew by 15 percent.
* And while most of the stories, columns and editorials in the Tribune about the exodus focus on white, suburban, middle-class people, this is also a hard reality…
Illinois is more reliant on agriculture, construction and mining machinery manufacturing, as well as management, technical consulting and securities and investments. Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin are as much as five times above the national average in terms of motor vehicle-related manufacturing. In a touch of political irony, the controversial federal bailout of the auto industry during the Obama administration appears to have helped prop up population in those Republican-leaning states. […]
“If you look at a rural county in Illinois, it’s almost like any other state, where they’re losing just like the Illinois county is,” [Chicago demographer Rob Paral] said. “Illinois, though, is both unique in its total population but with very different things going on.”
“Black population growth and immigration growth used to offset the white decline,” Paral said. “Not anymore.”
* And remember this from 2015?…
In per capita terms, Illinois’ gross out-migration rate ranks just 29th out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In other words, Illinois residents are actually less likely to move out than are residents of the median state.
But things don’t look so good when it comes to gross in-migration. Adjusted for population, Illinois attracts fewer newcomers than all but two other states: New York and Michigan.
That means Illinois’ migration problems are mostly about how few people come here, not how many people leave.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 10:47 am
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Compare and contrast the Crain’s BGA report and the tronc edit scribblings.
It’s the difference between thoughtful, thorough journalism and a rolling, willfully ignorant tantrum.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 10:53 am
==That sucking sound you hear in Illinois might be jobs and moving vans leaving the state.==
Does Fox not employ editors? “That sucking sound … might be jobs and moving vans”? Whoever wrote that needs to be in a different profession.
Comment by PJ Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 10:54 am
If we had a healthier economy and business could see the state was making an effort to reform our government and business environment, businesses might open more locations here to take advantages of all the positives Illinois has to offer. Why did Illinois used to be so much more competitive than it is today?
More people would then move here for better opportunities that can be found in other states.
Instead we watch as our problems get worse year after year while politicians claim there is more work to be done.
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2018/06/07/illinois_is_better_off_bankrupt_110660.html
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:00 am
Statewide perhaps not so many people come here but they seem to in the Chicago metropolitan area.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:01 am
Sorry; 11:01 was me.
Comment by JackD Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:02 am
===Why did Illinois used to be so much more competitive than it is today?===
You should ask the current governor.
His name is Bruce Rauner.
You can find him fairly easily, he’s the one in the costumes.
You want to know about “today”, ask the governor of “today”.
You’re welcome.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:05 am
This is a great compilation. Population change is a complex metric with many moving parts. To try and simplify it to a “People Flee Taxes” headline is more than a little misleading.
What is frustrating is that these counterpoints won’t matter to the people already predisposed to believe that headline.
And what is dangerous is the number of politicians citing this logic to fight for tax cuts that lead to service cuts. You want to run a population out of town quickly? Erode the services they rely on. And if you don’t think the affluent rely on services such as education, transportation, fire and rescue, etc., then you must live in a state that has already legalized recreational use.
*Snark on that last clause*
Comment by Chicago_Downstater Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:05 am
I hate it when experienced economists and demographers conspire with unbiased journalists to cloud the debate with actual facts.
Comment by Roman Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:08 am
Illinois had major economic problems before Bruce Rauner entered politics. He’s not the only person to blame. Rising taxes do hurt a lot of Illinois.
Comment by Steve Bartin Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:10 am
We may have to rely on “sometimes” the numbers get revised upwards later in order to rebut the flight of a number of residents out of Illinois?
Not all wishful thinking comes true. Let’s wait and see.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:12 am
It has never been true that a single factor drives migration. The only people who claim such things are those who are trying to build a political narrative. Taxes are but one of many factors that drive both personal and business decisions on whether to leave and on where to locate.
Comment by Demoralized Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:12 am
–I hate it when experienced economists and demographers conspire with unbiased journalists to cloud the debate with actual facts.–
Doesn’t happen very often, does it?
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:14 am
With all due respect to the great and powerful Oswego Willy, perhaps we should be asking Mr. Madigan and Mr. Cullerton. They have been the overseers of Illinois governance far longer than Mr. Rauner. But back to the main issue. Why should people move here? There has been little evidence of an ability to govern effectively for decades-look at any sector of Illinois: infrastructure, education, human services for example. What we pay for in taxes is so rarely worth it. Politicians spend more time on power structures and meaningless legislation such as Zombie Preparedness Day than real issues. Yes, the Chicago lakefront is lovely but only so many people can live there. Just seems like there are more than enough reasons to not join our little party.
Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:14 am
–If we had a healthier economy and business could see the state was making an effort to reform our government and business environment, businesses might open more locations here to take advantages of all the positives Illinois has to offer.–
You are way overdue for your election-year reboot. Steppin’ all over the Boss’ messages.
https://capitolfax.com/2018/03/05/rauner-admin-touts-positive-review-from-site-selection-magazine/
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:17 am
=Are we blaming the wrong thing?=
Yes.
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:18 am
===the great and powerful===
Again, a myth. I’m neither, and if anything I’m mockingly less.
To excuse the three years of Rauner, then you must agree that Rauner hasn’t been in charge, and why elect him again?
“Today” is Rauner, as yesterdays are Quinn, Blago, Ryan Edgar and Thompson.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:18 am
“If we had a healthier economy and business could see the state was making an effort to reform our government and business environment, businesses might open more locations here to take advantages of all the positives Illinois has to offer.”
I love that Lucky’s response to a piece that compares data-free speculation to a rationale analysis of the data that refutes said speculation is to offer more data-free speculation and a link to opining from the far right.
Comment by Montrose Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:21 am
Perhaps we should look at the dysfunction tax created as a result of the budget impasse. Smart people and businesses crave stability. Little in-migration? why move someplace where every headline blares dysfunction. I’d be curious about the demographic changes in other actual or perceived dysfunctional places. Detroit got hollowed out when the city couldn’t even change the street light bulbs. Cause or effect? I don’t know. I’d be interested in Kansas’ numbers at the height of their financial collapse. were people rushing to move there with their taxes unsustainably low? How about now that their taxes are higher, have the moving vans invaded like locusts? To appropriate a well worn truism, simple explanations are usually neither.
Comment by Undiscovered country Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:22 am
==If we had a healthier economy and business could see the state was making an effort to reform our government and business environment, businesses might open more locations here to take advantages of all the positives Illinois has to offer.==
Indeed. But instead, we have Bruce Rauner.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:25 am
The numbers may be quite inaccurate. Many people that have come to Illinois live and work here are not counted. They are in fear of being deported, so they try to avoid the census-takers.
Comment by DuPage Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:25 am
The current Governor would explain to you Willy that our debt crisis is what is hurting the Illinois economy and it did not begin 3 1/2 years ago no matter how you try to spin it. He has made countless proposals to improve Illinois and the Democrats have rejected all of them and failed to introduce any counter proposals. They believe we just need to raise taxes despite the fact they just did that a year ago. Why should we believe more of the same will somehow produce better results?
Why do the majorities in the legislature claim there is so much more work to be done but never seem to get around to doing it?
The state’s cookie cutter, Cook County Democrats know best approach to statewide competitiveness has had disastrous consequences.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:28 am
===they try to avoid the census-takers===
That’s not how estimates are made. They only go door to door every ten years. Try using the Google.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:28 am
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
The real problem is why those who push the hysteria think bad mouthing Illinois is the best thing to make our future better. Bruce Rauner is like a sort of anti-cheerleader for (against?) Illinois. How does running down our state help improve anything besides his poll numbers?
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:28 am
==Illinois had major economic problems before Bruce Rauner entered politics.==
Every problem that every state faces started, to one extent or another, before the incumbent Governor got there. That’s not the point. The point is how the incumbent Governor handles the problems. Rauner has done so extremely poorly.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:30 am
I wonder why the same people claiming a progressive income tax will result in an exodus say taxing retirement won’t.
Comment by wondering Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:33 am
–We may have to rely on “sometimes” the numbers get revised upwards later in order to rebut the flight of a number of residents out of Illinois?–
Why don’t you read the whole Crain’s piece? Answers a lot of questions with old-timey real journalism.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:34 am
=I’d be interested in Kansas’ numbers at the height of their financial collapse. were people rushing to move there with their taxes unsustainably low? How about now that their taxes are higher, have the moving vans invaded like locusts?=
Simple Google search:
“Kansas’ experiment with tax cutting failed spectacularly — on its own terms:”
http://www.businessinsider.com/kansas-experiment-with-tax-cutting-failed-on-its-own-terms-2017-6
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:50 am
===The current Governor would explain to you… that our debt crisis is what is hurting the Illinois economy and it did not begin 3 1/2 years ago no matter how you try to spin it.===
It’s about a governor bringing “fundamental change”… not having a governor, after 3+ years, explaining the situation that hasn’t changed since Rauner has been governor.
If Rauner can’t change it, why re-elect him?
This is why you fail in the message, but more importantly why Bruce Rauner is a failed governor… and you crystallized it in one sentence perfectly.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:50 am
Elephant in room, thy name is property taxes.
Comment by City Zen Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 11:56 am
If you have a product that needs to be on both east and west coasts of the US, you come to Illinois, halving your transportation costs. You built your manufacturing here.
We don’t have these kinds of business problems anymore. Manufacturing products is often not the highest cost of a product. Transporting products to both coasts isn’t a top priority anymore.
Illinois hasn’t moved from being halfway to where ever you need to go. The need isn’t a top priority as it once was.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:04 pm
–Transporting products to both coasts isn’t a top priority anymore.–
It’s still a huge deal, by truck and rail. Just In Time delivery for inventory and cost-control is the lifeblood of B-to-B commerce.
And I hear that B-to-C delivery is catching on, too.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:13 pm
===”–We may have to rely on “sometimes” the numbers get revised upwards later in order to rebut the flight of a number of residents out of Illinois?–
Why don’t you read the whole Crain’s piece? Answers a lot of questions with old-timey real journalism===
I did. Sorry to burst your bubble.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:16 pm
==Even so, Minnesota was among Midwestern leaders in population growth, with a 5.1 percent gain since 2010 and a 13.3 percent jump since 2000.==
Since 2000, Tennessee’s population is up 18%. Maybe the answer is no state income tax?
Comment by City Zen Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:17 pm
== The current Governor would explain to you Willy that our debt crisis is what is hurting the Illinois economy ==
So, if debt is bad, why did Rauner deliberately double the bill backload?
Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:24 pm
–Since 2000, Tennessee’s population is up 18%. Maybe the answer is no state income tax?–
Maybe it’s all the Meat and Three joints? Maybe it’s Marcus Mariotta?
The point of the Crain’s article was that simple-minded “answers” are just that
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:26 pm
L.p. it is true BR proposed some budget saving ideas. But like demagogue did not do the work to see them through
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:27 pm
–So, if debt is bad, why did Rauner deliberately double the bill backload?–
Way more than double — $4.5B to $16B.
While everyone else waited to get paid anything at all months late, bondholders got paid to the penny on right on the dot, every time, because of strong state law and exponential debt service coverage.
Yet the rating agencies will tell you the state is a bigger risk than AAA/AA corporate paper. Makes no sense.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:37 pm
Quinn had better job growth, debt reduction and population stats during his term than Rauner.
The right wing exodus scare tactic is a sham to protect certain rich people from paying more taxes. It’s to force cuts and the fixing of the state on the backs of unionized workers. Those pushing or supporting the sham live in high-income, low state income tax Illinois. Rauner makes hundreds of millions here, Griffin and Uihlein billions.
The sham needs to finally be put to rest. This state needs the wealthy to pay higher taxes and the middle class and lower income to pay lower taxes. I’m watching to see how Pritzker works the progressive income tax campaign issue and think he needs to really run on it. Rauner’s already backed into a corner, in his utter refusal to pay more, and the sham he’s pushin’ to stop it.
Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:41 pm
Simple sells.
Comment by walker Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 12:54 pm
https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/06/07/cities-americans-are-abandoning-3/11/
See who is #1 on the list. It’s not a good place to be. This is the type of initial brief for a Wall Street & a financing audience, and being #1-10 on this list tends to create lots & lots of additional questions. And not in a good way.
I can already hear the follow-up questions. “Ok, what’s the net fiscal assets change (by year) for both ‘adds’ and ’subtracts’ for each year, not just net numbers”. And for Residential only, arrange data by income strata. And then there will be more questions.
And eventually Chicago area SMSA gets moved to the bottom of the financing list.
See this number: Median home value: $229,900
One set of questions that aren’t answered is:
Percentage of foreclosures/short sales occurring over same time period? Also, because we don’t have “Mark to Market” anymore, what’s the amount of ‘dead money’ on the Median foreclosures/short sale? In other words, what’s going to happen to our collateral if our position goes into the porcelain convenience?
And then there’s property tax increases. If local property taxes go up, the increase is usually capitalized and then subtracted from the previous year’s ‘Median Home Value’ to establish a new (lower) ‘Median Home Value’. What’s that mean to our RE positions?
That’s a direct effect on RE financing - and not in a positive way.
Point is this. Are these situations happening in IL yet? Don’t know - YET. But it certainly appears to be happening in NJ.
Link is: http://insights.videntfinancial.com/blog/consultant-tells-wsj-my-clients-are-fleeing-new-jersey-like-its-on-fire?utm_campaign=Bowyer%20Research%20RCM%20Referrals&utm_source=RCM&utm_medium=NJ%20Fleeing
It can happen here.
“When They Say It’s Not About The Money, It’s ALWAYS About The Money”.
Comment by Anon Downstate Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 1:12 pm
you know what used to be big in Illinois? Printing. Think Sears catalogs and Yellow Pages. Those industries and their supporting infrastructure are gone and gone for good. Blame taxes and governors all you want, but some changes are structural. That is literally 100,000’s of jobs never to return. And Illinois specific, compared to our neighbors. For most businesses and industries, government and taxes barely operate at the margins. It’s mostly a sham. Same with Edge credits. This crap is great for talking points and political ads, but far removed from economic reality.
Infrastructure and Human Capital are Illinois’ best investments. Sadly, we haven’t done too well on either of those lately.
Comment by qwero;i Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 1:19 pm
I am moving not because of taxes but tired of social issues that are chicago based being forced statewide
Comment by Anon Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 1:21 pm
===tired of social issues that are chicago based being forced statewide===
Do you need help packing? Just kidding. Seriously, I wish you well and hope you find what you’re looking for, which sounds a lot like 1950s Alabama to me.
“There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of a comfortable past which, in fact, never existed.”
RFK
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 1:39 pm
==Quinn had better job growth…==
Both Quinn and Rauner have identical percentage drops in unemployment rates since both took office and both trailed the national average.
==Quinn had better job growth==
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 1:55 pm
==Quinn had better job growth…==
Both Quinn and Rauner have identical percentage drops in unemployment rates since both took office and both trailed the national average. Neither one deserves a prize.
==debt reduction…==
With an extra $10 billion from the tax hike, I would expect as much, which Rauner let expire. Neither one deserves a prize.
==… and population stats…==
You got me there, but Blago beats them both.
Comment by City Zen Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 2:00 pm
–You got me there, but Blago beats them both.–
There’s the point.
If you pay the troncs simple-minded and completely unsupported claim that state government drives the economy and growth, then the Team of Blago, Madigan and Jones were the bees-knees.
I doubt that they would claim that.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 2:41 pm
Why would anybody want to come to Illinois when the bad mouther in chief constantly says the state is broken?
Comment by Huh? Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 2:49 pm
You are all wrong. It is the lack of affordable housing in and around Chicago that is driving me out of state. I retire in a few months and can’t afford to live here anymore.
Comment by Chicago Barb Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 4:34 pm
“Why should we believe more of the same will somehow produce better results?” Why shouldn’t we believe that what Rauner wants to do is even worse?
Comment by Skeptic Friday, Jun 8, 18 @ 4:40 pm
–Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin are as much as five times above the national average in terms of motor vehicle-related manufacturing.–
Just a reminder that all of those places are ranked as better business climates, have lower property taxes and better workers comp insurance rates. The BGA is right, it’s not all about tax rates, it’s our bad laws and failed government.
Comment by Ahoy! Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 8:38 am