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Rate the governor’s new TV ad

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* Press release…

Today, the Rauner Campaign is launching a new statewide TV ad titled “Tax Hiker.”

The ad tells the story of Mike Madigan’s 32% income tax hike last year, and how his handpicked candidate for governor, JB Pritzker, is calling for yet another tax hike on every single Illinoisan. The ad then cites a Chicago Tribune editorial that says Pritzker’s plan would “punish” taxpayers, the same plan that Pritzker calls the “theme” of his campaign.

The Pritzker-Madigan agenda is clear: higher taxes, more corruption.

* The spot…

* Script…

Mike Madigan just raised your taxes thirty-two percent over Bruce Rauner’s veto. Now JB Pritzker wants to raise your taxes again. Pritzker and Madigan want to raise taxes on every middle class Illinoisan. And increase tax rates… another twenty…six… percent. The Chicago Tribune says Pritzker’s plan will punish Illinoisans. But JB Prtizker calls it the central theme of his campaign.

JB Pritzker and Mike Madigan. Higher taxes. More corruption.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:19 am

Comments

It’s like watching a replay of 1994. Having said that it worked in 1994 but in a political environment that was running strongly in the opposite direction.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:24 am
The talk about raising taxes by 32 percent or 26 percent is disingenuous and intellectually dishonest. And I’m sure it works. But trying to give people the impression that the state income tax rate is over 50 percent is absurd. The visual of a teddy bear abandoned in a puddle really takes the cake too. That kid must have really been upset about the state of affairs in Springfield.

Comment by TopHatMonocle Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:26 am
I’m going to repeat this every time Rauner complains about the tax hike: Rauner spent every dollar of it. Heck, he was spending every dollar of the tax hike even before it happened (during the impasse). So he should thank Madigan for coming up with (most) of the money that Rauner evidently wants to spend.

Obviously knowing this truth colors my opinion of the ad, but I would give it a C at best, just because I know it is complete and utter BS.

Comment by Perrid Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:28 am
It’s a good ad. At some point, JB is going to have to explain his tax plan with specifics about rate structure.

Comment by Birdseed Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:29 am
The teddy bear in the rain is a nice touch. It is an appropriate description of Illinois.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:32 am
It’s a “B-“

It keeps what few Rauner has left with him. While Rauner signed a budget that verified the need of the 32% tax increase, Rauner certified the 32% tax increase was not frivolous, but a necessity for Rauner.

Rauner is still unlikable. This ad doesn’t address that.

This ad does nothing to make Rauner seem important, if anything, Rauner isn’t in charge is the theme of this ad. How can Rauner stand up to Madigan if the tax happened over the Rauner veto?

It’s a “B-“…

You’d think Pritzker would’ve already done an ad on how Rauner raised taxes 32% after destroying social services and higher education. Rauner has a lone signed budget with a 32% tax increase to make it work.

That’s why this is a “B-“… Rauner again owns the messaging.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:36 am
Falls flat. Why? The Fair/Graduated/Progressive tax advocates, led by JB, will cut tax rates for 90+ percent of taxpayers.

If I were JB I’d release a few possible structures that could work and say “I’d support at least these - or others, as long as they guarantee that no one making less than $XXX thousand/year will pay more.

Bruce Rauner is lying, again.”

Comment by Sugar Corn Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:39 am
Run-of-the-mill, generic negative spot in style and execution. Not particularly memorable, except….

….what’s with the abandoned Teddy Bear out on the street in the rain? Is that a “Breaking Bad” reference? Is the message that JB is Heisenberg?

Strange image. What is it supposed to communicate?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:39 am
With sales tax in many locales at 9-10+ percent, with ever increasing already sky high real estate taxes and the 32% income tax rate, it is easy to hammer this message. R’s need to do it every day until the election.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:40 am
I have to find myself wondering - Will Rauner ever run a campaign ad that does not mention Madigan and “Tax Hikes” and “corruption”?

It appears that every ad I have seen is a slightly different version of the same message. But then, when you have no positive accomplishments to tout that would warrant your reelection, I guess it is reasonable to continue using the same tired message.

Comment by illini Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:41 am
“Is that a “Breaking Bad” reference?” No floating eyeball though.

To the Post: What, no toilets?

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:42 am
–The teddy bear in the rain is a nice touch. It is an appropriate description of Illinois.–

Go on.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:42 am
If I was JB I would say I am lowering taxes to 4% (which I would frame as a 25% decrease) and then for ridiculously rich people like me that earn over $1M, it is going up to 7%. I don’t care if it is a lie and that is what he is doing or not. But if he does not say something that counters these things from Rauner, then he will have trouble and may lose to the worse governor … that I think will get worse in his second term.

Comment by I Miss Bentohs Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:43 am
F for failure. Rauner has failed. I dont even watch his ads anymore. It’s just too much to ask.

Comment by Generic Drone Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:43 am
Taxes, Madigan, corruption. Ok, got it.

What is with the teddy bear in the rain? Obviously I am not the target audience for this ad - can someone explain just what that is supposed to symbolize?

Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:43 am
It’s got holes you could drive a truck through, and Rauner signing a budget that relies on the tax hike weakens the message, but for selecting facts carefully and presenting them clearly, this is a pretty good ad and may work with low information voters.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:45 am
- wordslinger -
–-The teddy bear in the rain is a nice touch. It is an appropriate description of Illinois.-–

-Go on.-

…the Chicago Bears are terrible?

Comment by Don Gerard Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:45 am
==What, no toilets?==

We are left to assume that even an abandoned, decrepit apartment has working plumbing. Unlike some more opulent residences…

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:46 am
Not sure about the statement in ad which says JB is raising taxes on entire middle class. But until JB releases his tax plan Rauner will keep running ads like this. What’s the plan JB ?

Comment by Silicon Prairie Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:46 am
zzzzzz , I suppose a C for ad. It’s not a bad ad, but unbelievable in the face of reality.

Tax hike we had never should have been let expire. Evil Madigan might ‘play’ to some crowds, but it’s growing very old very fast. Something along the lines of people in glass houses shouldn’t..

Comment by Cindy Lou Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:47 am
I’d give it a B on the basis that it will resonate with the 26% who approve of Governor’s performance and it builds on the only strategy that Rauner has which is to drag Pritzker’s approval down to his level. I don’t know if it’s a winning strategy but it’s clearly all that Rauner has.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:49 am
This ad is also something a challenger would run, as Rauner, who is the sitting governor, couldn’t stop the tax increase, later used the tax increase, and while governor could take show the cuts necessary to keep taxes lower or give the rebuttal to the 32% tax increase he himself as governor used in his lone signed budget.

It’s like an alternate universe.

If you believe Rauner is not the incumbent, or that being grossly inept is a good reason for a Rauner second term, or worse, Rauner purposely hurting Illinois, and blaming Madigan for it is a reward in of itself… this ad is for you.

…

That’s why Rauner is unlikable and it won’t move numbers to make Rauner the choice of voters still undecided.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:51 am
B it’s a little creepy, but it will resonate, especially with those whose property taxes were just hiked. a tax is a tax and people don’t like them even if they are needed to fund things people want. Rauner’s ads are imprinting the Madigan Pritzker pairing at every turn. the repetition will be helpful to him. and the debates will be important because Pritzker will have to make people like him to overcome the pairing and I don’t believe it will be that easy for him.

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:52 am
==I don’t care if it is a lie and that is what he is doing or not.==

Guessing JB won’t be using your sound bite in his commercials.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:52 am
For the intended audience, it works. Raising taxes is bad. It will be spent on corrupt things. It hurts our children and their teddy bears. (I just watched Deadpool 2 so I thought it was the bear Cable carries).

I give it a solid B. It helps scare voters into voting for Rauner, which is his best hope.

Comment by Montrose Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:55 am
Rauners veto failed, reelect a failure for the future

Comment by Rabid Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:56 am
===What’s the plan JB ?===

Shake up the Koch Bros. Bring back Illinois.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:57 am
Madigan did not do this alone …

https://tinyurl.com/yavmzttw

Rauner was not in control of the party he bought, and as others have said, Rauner spent that return to less than 5% anyway.

Team Pritzker could try countering with those facts.

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:00 am
The ad will resonate with people who don’t like taxes, and those that don’t want to pay additional taxes to a state government that can’t manage its finances. As long as that is the minority, the JB fans have nothing to worry about.

Anyone who thinks JB is going to lower taxes for the middle class is not thinking clearly. He knows the math doesn’t work. That’s why he won’t provide any details for his tax plan.

I still think JB wins, but he isn’t very impressive as a candidate.

Comment by SSL Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:05 am
“Bruce Rauner has failed Illinois.

After 3 years of never signing a budget, running up state debts and watching social services close, Rauner signed his first budget, raising taxes 32% for everyone.

Higher taxes, closed social services, Illinois can’t afford Rauner failures anymore.“

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:07 am
Yes, Same-o same-o. However, Lake County property tax assessed valuation notices (higher of course) just arrived in mail. Amalia is right– taxes are taxes. Timing of the ad is good. JB’s evasion of disclosing any details of his tax plan concerns many voters. Grade B.

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:11 am
Before Labor Day I would be expecting both
Candidates to be trying to appeal to voters outside
their “small tents”. Rauner needs suburban women and anti- Rham voters who may not like Pritzker’s female hiring practices or failure to speak out against Rham’s failure to deal with the violence problem in a lot of poorer communities in Chicago.
Instead of going after voters that might be on the fence or even in favor of Pritzker, Rauner is trying to appeal to a “no tax increases” crowd that he will get for free.
Good Ad to get out the vote in October or November, but a waste of money in August.
Yet another example of both candidates having too much money and too little focus.

Comment by Back to the Future This Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:13 am
==the math doesn’t work==

Excuse me?

For example:

“…a 4.5 percent tax on income up to $100,000;
4.95 percent on income between $100,000 and $300,000;
8 percent on income between $300,000 and $500,000;
9.25 percent on income between $500,000 and $1 million;
and 9.85 percent on income of $1 million or more.”

Source:

http://files.constantcontact.com/ea9ddc33001/dddcda6c-2cc8-4c1b-a0c1-3d5c13517504.pdf

Comment by Sugar Corn Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:13 am
I give Willie’s Ad an A. Perfect OW. You oughta think about making a living at this sorta thing…/s

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:13 am
- PublicServant -

Appreciate that, thanks.

The next call I get to do that will be the first. No one is looking.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:17 am
== You’d think Pritzker would’ve already done an ad on how Rauner raised taxes 32% after destroying social services and higher education. Rauner has a lone signed budget with a 32% tax increase to make it work.

That’s why this is a “B-“… Rauner again owns the messaging. ==

This is the crux of what I was trying to say in my post … OW conveyed my disbelief of the JB team better than my effort

Comment by I Miss Bentohs Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:18 am
C-

The ad speaks to the “higher taxes” portion of the message in its entirety. It says nothing about “more corruption.” Is the viewer suppose to know that higher taxes leads to more corruption?

If so, why hasn’t Bruce Rauner done nothing to address the corruption? Why hasn’t Rauner called for AG Madigan, the FBI, or any investigative body to look into these corrupt matters?

Why hasn’t he put on the table tougher laws to curb the corruption? I get that term limits would certainly rid the state of Madigan in the house (he could always run for something else), but what about corruption? Where’s the proof? And where is all of this in the ad besides the tag line?

Lastly, this ad only highlights Rauner’s runaway spending without a budget. He’s a kid with his parents’ credit card and Pritzker could make the counterargument that Dems will have to clean up his mess of a hopefully one term. Rauner could have argue that a large chunk of that tax increase could have been put to paying down the debt. He didn’t. He took the cash.

He doesn’t get a failing grade because of the filmography. Whoever he paid to put the ad together didnt use a shaky phone for its video shots. That’s gotta count for somethin’.

Comment by MG85 Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:19 am
=The ad will resonate with people who don’t like taxes, and those that don’t want to pay additional taxes to a state government that can’t manage its finances.-

As OW pointed out it’s the perfect ad to run against an incumbent. The problem is that after 4 years Bruce Rauner is now “state government.” The things he’s rallying against all occurred on his watch.

Now you might argue that Rauner wasn’t responsible for all of this occurring but he was clearly incapable of preventing it. And part of the state’s responsibility in “managing its finances” is paying its bills and Rauner wasn’t able to do that either.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:20 am
“Hi, I’m Bruce Rauner. I spent nearly two and a half years fighting to ensure that the income tax ended up being 0.05% lower than it was before I took office. And it only cost Illinois taxpayers $1 billion, decimated social services and nearly put our state colleges out of business.

I’m Bruce Rauner and I’m fightin’ Illinois.”

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:23 am
=At some point, JB is going to have to explain his tax plan with specifics about rate structure.=

At some point, the sitting governor is going to have to explain his tax plan with specifics about rate structure.
There, fixed it.

Comment by Suet Cake Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:24 am
=== No one is looking. ===

JB might want to start, based on his team’s failure to highlight both his obvious advantages, and Rauner’s enormous negatives.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:24 am
===It is an appropriate description of Illinois.===

Illinois or Toy Story 3? I guess Madigan is Lotso then, right?

“We were lost, cast-off, unloved, unwanted. Then we found Sunnyside. But Lotso wasn’t my friend anymore. He wasn’t anyone’s friend. He took over Sunnyside and rigged the whole system.”

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:35 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89MihWd6zKk

Comment by Saluki Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:35 am
It’s decent. It covers the bases and reinforces the narrative he’s pushing. It really isn’t memorable, but it’s staid, measured and consistent. It’s keeping the beat til the next one. It’s a pass, but as stated a number of times, not particularly memorable.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:35 am
Sugar Corn - That progressive tax plan generates maybe $2B in new revenue. That seems like a lot, until you remember the state’s new education funding formula requires $3B in new revenue. How then does JB pay for the dozen or so other expensive promises he’s made when the new revenue has already been spent?

This is why folks say the math doesn’t work.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:39 am
The elephant in the room is that neither Rauner or Pritzker are particularly likable or appealing to voters outside their immediate constituencies and their campaign staffs who are being paid to make them more likable (but don’t have a lot to work with).

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:40 am
- PublicServant -

You’re very kind. Sincerely.

They have good people doing some fine work. I’m looking forward to after Labor Day and see what they may have ready to roll out.

Back to the Post… it’s these ads that signal to me that Rauner’s Crew can’t figure out a way to make a positive incumbent pitch to marry with the ominous negative ads. It’s telling that the ad touts the veto, but glosses over the override, as that would be opening the door to an admitted failure.

My point is… Rauner is owning a failure as a successful reason to think Rauner can succeed where he’s already failed?

The sitting governor has given up on trying to sell himself, so it’s repackaging a failure as a reason to vote for that sitting governor again?

The psychology to it… fascinating insight to where they are.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:41 am
===But until JB releases his tax plan Rauner will keep running ads like this.==

And well after he releases a plan, too.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:44 am
Clearly I’m not the target audience!

This is a great closing argument for why IL needs to ditch Rauner and to elect JB.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:47 am
Sugar Corn, the CTBA isn’t an unbiased, non partisan group, despite their claims. They have an agenda, and are selective in their use of data. You can believe everything they put out, but that doesn’t make it right.

Comment by SSL Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:50 am
Everyone but the most gullible rube knows Rauner wanted the tax increase and his own bloated, out of balance budget left no option. F minus.

Comment by get real Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:50 am
Nobody leaves Illinois because of high taxes right JB?

https://capitolfax.com/2018/04/05/pritzker-hit-for-tax-comments/

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:54 am
Dance Band, technically it cost us $12 Billion, not one billion. Went from 4 and a half to 16 before the tax increase was passed. Not that republicans have ever been the party that cared about government debt, of course, but it’s noteworthy.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:02 am
Where is corruption, much less “more corruption” in the ad…not putting Teddy in the washing machine?

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:02 am
I’m gonna grade it a D because the people on here who generally really like Rauner’s ads are all kinda “meh” on it.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:18 am
I see Pritzker himself in positive spots on Chicago broadcast to go with the Rauner failed theme. Rauner is as missing from his own ad campaign as he is from doing public events.

Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:39 am
It’s a terrific ad if people view Rauner as a credible messenger. It’s also terrific if people saw Rauner as a good manger. As I think neither is the case, I give it a C+.

Comment by DarkHorse Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:42 am
== the CTBA…have an agenda, and are selective in their use of data.==

Actually, their progressive tax plan is refreshingly unbiased. It clearly shows that taxing only the rich will not work and just the first step towards hiking taxes on working families. I’m surprised they showed their hand so early.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:44 am
B. The ad is correct. That is JB’s theme. But it won’t matter. Pritzker by 9%.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:55 am
I give the ad a “Rauner A+” which relative to a normal scale is a “C-”.

For the Rauner crew this is clearly as creative as they get. They have no successes to celebrate so they have to consistently go negative, and the ads are not real honest.

Mike Madigan handpicked Pritzker? I don’t think so.

=Sugar Corn, the CTBA isn’t an unbiased, non partisan group, despite their claims. They have an agenda, and are selective in their use of data. You can believe everything they put out, but that doesn’t make it right.=

Prove it. To date, I have never seen anyone with an honest refutation of their numbers which they get from reliable sources.

Put up or take it on the heel and toe…

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:57 am
=working families=

You mean “taxpayers”?

Or “job creators”?

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 11:58 am
Successful reelection campaign ads don’t show children’s toys left in rain because it tells viewers that the incumbent is a helpless child unable to stop the bad men he’s supposed to stop.

Rauner is a victim? We’re all victims? We’re all helpless? He’s helpless?

Who thinks sympathy and wet teddies are any message for a future?

Sick and sad all around.

Grade D

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 12:19 pm
—Falls flat. Why? The Fair/Graduated/Progressive tax advocates, led by JB, will cut tax rates for 90+ percent of taxpayers.–

Theres a reason he isn’t doing what you suggested….

—The talk about raising taxes by 32 percent or 26 percent is disingenuous and intellectually dishonest. And I’m sure it works. But trying to give people the impression that the state income tax rate is over 50 percent is absurd..–

math is hard

Comment by ughh Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 12:24 pm
This is an echo chamber spot for his base, who are already predisposed to want to believe what the spot is saying. I don’t think it gains any new voters for him. And it doesn’t really say anything positive Bruce can or would do.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 1:01 pm
===working families. You mean “taxpayers”? Or “job creators”?==

A household unit where one or more members provide income to said household by working. What else would it mean?

==I have never seen anyone with an honest refutation of their numbers which they get from reliable sources.==

Dollar amount * higher tax rate = higher dollar amount. Check.
Loan amount / larger amount of payments = smaller loan payment. Check.

You’re right, their math certainly checks out.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:15 pm
BTIA: “Alright Governor. In our next series of ads we will be showing the Teddy Bear in the toilet. Get it? The Teddy Bear and the toilet, and the Teddy Bear is in the toilet.
Rauner: What’s that supposed to mean?
BTIA: Darned if we know. Does it matter? Oh, and the toilet will say “Standard Madigan” instead of “American Standard.” Still nothing?

Comment by 37B Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 3:00 pm
@CZ, sounds more like a working Family member, unless you are a fan of child labor (yikes).

===I have never seen anyone with an honest refutation of their numbers which they get from reliable sources.==

Dollar amount * higher tax rate = higher dollar amount. Check.
Loan amount / larger amount of payments = smaller loan payment. Check.

You’re right, their math certainly checks out.=

Huh? Maybe you should get a C-scan or something?

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 3:04 pm
==sounds more like a working Family member==

We Are One.

==Maybe you should get a C-scan or something?==

When doing CTBA math, a lower GI test is the recommended medical procedure.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 3:52 pm
=When doing CTBA math, a lower GI test is the recommended medical procedure.=

Ok, that is pretty funny.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 4:49 pm