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Sunday was clearly a huge spike

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* All charts are from HeyJackass.com. Yearly Chicago homicides for the past 60 years, not including 2018, which so far is lower than 2017…

* Chicago homicides over the past decade, with a 2018 forecast…

* Chicago shootings resulting in wounds or death, plus other homicides in the past month…

My point here is that it’s important not to take or encourage rash actions based on what could turn out to be a one-time thing. That’s not to say nothing should be done. To suggest otherwise would be stupid. People are suffering regardless of Sunday’s spike, which was completely horrifying.

All I’m saying is people tend to overreact in the moment. And it helps in those moments to put things into some perspective.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 1:22 pm

Comments

The spike was so large that everybody felt compelled to talk about it, for a little while, anyway.

But after 30 years of observation living on the edge of Austin, rolling through K-Town twice a day, and seeing how parts of the city have flourished while others suffer, I expect a couple of things to continue:

–The unspoken policy of City Hall and Big Money will be to contain violence in “those neighborhoods” to allow for growth on the North Sides, Lakefront and expanding Greater Loop.–

– The people in “those neighorhoods” who can get out will continue to do so, as hundreds of thousands already have in recent decades. Those who can’t, carry a heavy load.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 1:48 pm
The FBI, the repeal of prohibition, and improvements in the job market helped stem the tide of violence in Chicago in the 20’s and 30’s.

Perhaps some combination of these factors can help now. There is a trust issue with the CPD right now, so the FBI could possibly be better suited for investigating these shootings.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:04 pm
It’d be interesting to see an overlay of the Temperature on those graphs.

Comment by ChrisB Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:08 pm
It’s worse than it looks:

1. The homicide rate in recent years would be much higher if the data were adjusted for population. As we all know, the city has been losing people for a long time and the trend of per capita homicide rate is worse than these charts show.
2. Some very good investigative journalism has demonstrated that in the past several years homicides have been undercounted based on questionable practices by the coroner and CPD.

Comment by Carl Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:09 pm
Sling is precisely right. It’s not just the politicos who will sheepishly acknowledge those observations…the cops will too.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:10 pm
But, Madigan… and Madigan.

Comment by Bruce (no not him) Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:12 pm
We need to also look at the number of shootings and where they are primarily occurring. The one thing we shouldn’t do is the same thing and hope for the best. I understand about the danger of overreacting but this latest surge has been going on for three years. Could we have saved some innocent lives if we had adopted a more assertive and targeted policing strategy 2 years ago. No one can know for sure but I would sure want to have tried.

Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:13 pm
@Carl re: point 1

The U.S. Census put Chicago’s population at 2,695,598 for 2010, and estimated its population last year to be 2,716,450.

Comment by GV Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:16 pm
–Some very good investigative journalism has demonstrated that in the past several years homicides have been undercounted based on questionable practices by the coroner and CPD.–

This is a good point. I have been a religious follower of Heyjackass since the dark days of 2016, and the site shares your wariness of officially reported numbers. As such, the site pulls all information from multiple sources, including CPD and local media sources. Cannot guarantee 100% accuracy of the numbers, but HeyJackass calls it as close as anyone can.

Comment by DarkDante Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:24 pm
Wow, 2016-2017 were the two years of the Rauner budget crisis. Is it just a total coincidence or not?

Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:25 pm
Hmmm seems like things were trending downward and then Rham became mayor and murders started going back up.

Dear Dude,
2016/2107 was when the ACLU decree was enacted and street stops by police plummeted, arrests also plummeted. Murders well the chart shows you what happened

Comment by just wondering Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:34 pm
I totally agree with you Word, it is a pattern I too have seen since my childhood in Chicago first with the development of Old Town in the early 1960s. It is also why I invested 35 years ago in large Victorian home at the far north end of Uptown. Sooner or later it would become a hot real estate market. The killing and depopulation will continue. But there will be higher and lower years over time. But elected officals can’t be as honest as you are Word, The lack of honesty includes some elected Black officals who have supported the basic strategy of urban redevelopment for many years.

As is also obvious from the murder and shooting data numerous parts of the City are not overly impacted by these killings, this includes communities that are overwhelmingly minority in composition but with somewhat higher average household incomes. But the fear of random shootings seems pretty pervasive in most of the African American community in the City, even those that are relatively safe. For the most part this fear has not infected whites living in higher income north side neighborhoods. Up here in gentrified Andersonville, parts of Edgewater, and parts of Uptown really very few are living in fear of randomly getting caught in the crossfire.

Comment by Rod Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:35 pm
Nearly 5000 murders since 2008. Sorry. It’s time to overreact. Complacency is what politicians are famous far.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:39 pm
@BlueDogDem, did you read this part, ” That’s not to say nothing should be done. To suggest otherwise would be stupid.” Rich wasn’t saying to be complacent, just trying to stop people from panicking and throwing something counterproductive together as fast as they can.

Comment by Perrid Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:42 pm
===It’s time to overreact.===

Chicagoans: You guys are right, could we get maybe some more money for our schools?

Right Wing Pundits: No

Chicagoans: Alright, maybe some better housing? More jobs nearby?

Right Wing Pundits: No

Chicagoans: So, could we get anything?

Right Wing Pundits: Ugh, fine. How about police stopping and searching you every day?

Chicagoans: Um…. No thanks?

Right Wing Pundits: WHY DON’T YOU WANT THIS PROBLEM SOLVED?

Comment by njt16 Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:43 pm
Njt. Please. This is such a problem that neither party has addressed it’s pitiful.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 2:48 pm
I’m normally with you Rich, but I think that Chris mentions a variable that wasn’t cited when CPD brass and their grand puppeteer the Mayor trotted out that shootings were down in the midst of the coldest winter we’ve had in four years. There is an absolute effect there, as just the other day, we were discussing AC units for those who typically don’t have it.

I also think that Wordslinger sums up a large part of the problem too.

And we can never forget where police distrust became a problem in Chicago. It wasn’t in that summer of 2014, but almost a year and a half later, which was after one of those elections for mayor that footage surfaced thanks to a good reporter who wouldn’t let city hall keep him locked out.

Coincidence? The statistics say, probably not. And there are no coincidences that Lollapalooza took up a great deal of police resources this weekend, and a consent decree started to make the rounds the day before.

The police are under fire for what really are a few bad apples. Our leaders chose to sacrifice the good men and women on the force for their own benefit.

In a perfect society, we wouldn’t need police. But we are far from a perfect society. Until we address the root causes of our minority communities,and we allow politicians to yank opportunity from them, we will be dealing with the same old song and dance.

It truly is a time for change, and that means that we embolden ourselves to make the changes necessary that give each and every person in our city an equal opportunity at a path forward. Neighborhoods are dying, and it’s not just the GOP who is responsible, but our 1% Mayor and his rubber stamp alderman.

Comment by DaleyMail Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 3:03 pm
Another reason for a drop in deaths related to shootings is better battlefield medical treatment. People in the 60s who would have died while being transported to hospitals in CFD Commissioner Quinn’s (he of the ‘59 White Sox sirens) Cadillac ambulances, now survive thanks to improved treatment both the the scene and at the hospital, unfortunately improvements due to wars.

Comment by West Side the Best Side Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 3:31 pm
I don’t want to hear the “bad apples” argument until I see “good cops” start calling out the bad ones. Until that happens they’re just as complicit. Period. Invest, invest, invest. But Rahm’s office will never allow the city to invest in the parts where it’s sorely needed, allow poverty and the violence it triggers in exaggerated temperatures to continue unabated. An absolutely solvable issue that will only continue to get worse with inaction, or placation of big donors development projects.

Comment by Stark Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 3:32 pm
@West Side the Best Side: thank you for bringing up the improved trauma care that has occurred with the trauma centers in the Chicago area; the drop in homicides should be in part attributed to doctors and paramedics simply innovating and improving their ability to keep multiple gunshot wound victims alive. Finally, my little soap box rant piggy backs on Wordslinger’s opening comment, which is that until our Mayor, City Council and the majority of Chicagoans want to get serious about confronting our city’s history of anti-Blackness (some also call it deep-seated institutional racism) and how we actually unroot this and fully repent from it, then this problem will persist. It all may have started before some of us became Chicagoans, but we are all still responsible for fixing the problem.

Comment by Veil of Ignorance Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 4:18 pm
The last 4 years have shown what happens when you cut the police force dramatically, take away their powers, catch and release all criminals, and stop enforcing the law. The more interesting chart is the LOL clearance rate….. A lot of killers walking around Chicago with no consequences.

Comment by 44th Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 4:39 pm
@stark

What percentage of bad police do you think there are?

I’ll give you a stat: of all the shootings in Chicago year to date, less than .7 involved police. Of those, how many were justified? You act like police misbehavior is some sort of epidemic when the fact is, the statistics don’t support that argument.

I agree there is a lot of systemic racism, and that we do need to invest, but the fact of the matter is that police are out there having to react to situations. If this past weekend is any indication (which it is), how would you deal with the situations they have to? Never mind how we got to where we are. We are in agreement. But when you’re in a life and death situation, how would you react?

I think I know the answer. And in a lot of situations in CPD, cops are going to IAD to report bad behavior. But the political element that exists within this department doesn’t always protect “beefers.” Don’t paint the department with one broad brush, the Finnigans and Abattes are few and far between. Usually, they are protected by their political sponsors.

Comment by DaleyMail Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 5:08 pm
Hiya 44th,
Senor Miller posted it just a day or two ago but even if you accept Chicago “cut the police force dramatically” the City still has more cops per capita than any big City outside of DC.

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/safety-justice/police-officers-per-capita-rates-employment-for-city-departments.html

And it appears the City has more cops now than it did in 2016 when that report was written.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/fewer-street-cops-in-chicago-more-than-year-into-rahm-emanuel-hiring-surge-the-watchdogs/

Somebody will probably get a Public Policy PhD id they can ever explain why homicides spike in a big city with a lot of cops per capita. All I know is it’s probably complicated.

Comment by Chicago Bars Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 5:11 pm
Veil of ignorance even if there was a miracle in Chicago and the African American community’s on going conflicts with the CPD were resolved, there will still be family units in Chicago with gang and drug crew affiliations going back in time. While some of the larger gang structures have been destroyed by police, hundreds of micro gangs and drug crews have replaced them. Some of the shooters of today had grandfathers who were shooters of the past.

We have a deep problem and many good members of those communities under fire who can’t afford a more middle class community are bailing out of Chicago all together as Word correctly pointed out. I really think urban depopulation of the poor and under educated is strategic in nature. Many thought Black activists who back in the 1960s said the Cabrini–Green projects were being targeted for removal so mass gentrification were laughed at by the media as exaggerating, today of course they are proven to have been spot on.

Comment by Rod Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 5:13 pm
Thank you for the perspective, Rich. I also heard on NPR this afternoon that Chicago is 9th when city homicide rates are ranked per capita (which is generally considered more informative). St. Louis is 1st. D.C., Detroit, New Orleans all outrank us. There is a real problem in Chicago that needs work, but it also needs honest conversation and not the fear-mongering rhetoric that so often surrounds the issue.

Comment by Leslie K Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 5:24 pm
Chicago’s bloody exceptionalism isn’t new. Papa Hemingway as a young man.

http://ehto.thestar.com/marks/the-wild-west-is-now-in-chicago

Comment by Chicago Bars Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 5:26 pm
Yeah, shootings might be the best metric to look at over a 40 year span of time because, as West Side notes, improvements in medicine have allowed a lot of people to survive shootings that in the past would have been fatal.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 5:50 pm
Pete is. I understand both you and Rich’s point. But these numbers are gross. This year. Last year. Ten years ago. Things can’t go on status quo. Not just Chicago. All over.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 6:07 pm
Doctors are saying gunshot wounds are MORE deadly than a decade ago, not less deadly. Guns are more powerful. And antibiotics are weaker.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/health/gun-injuries-more-deadly/index.html

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 7:54 pm
DaleyMail @ 5:08 pm- “What percentage of bad police do you think there are?” I can’t put into words how ignorant and offensive these constant excuses are for police who kill. There is no acceptable percentage of “bad” police (simplistic bad guys/good guys terminology) or “bad” prosecutors who cover up and fail to charge police when they commit crimes. Like when Richie Daley was Cook County State’s Attorney while C.P.D. detective Jon Burge was using torture, for instance. How about the “bad” judges that sent Burge’s victims to death row on false testimony in collusion with police, is that okay too, if there are only a few of them?

“I’ll give you a stat: of all the shootings in Chicago year to date, less than .7 involved police. Of those, how many were justified?” Right, that’s the point, 99% of police who kill are never charged with any crime whatsoever, because police “investigate” other police shootings, and prosecutors and judges cover up for them. Again, see Richie Daley during the Burge era.

“You act like police misbehavior is some sort of epidemic…” “Misbehavior.” “Misconduct.” Note how when police kill, it’s always a “mistake, they had to make a decision in an instant.” Police have such a hard job, we should just let them kill taxpayers without legal review, we’re hurting their self-esteem by questioning their job performance, Waaghhh.

Comment by Payback Thursday, Aug 9, 18 @ 1:09 am
–Nearly 5000 murders since 2008. Sorry. It’s time to overreact.–

BDD, Exhibit One of low-rent trash bot.

Seriously, do you think automations like you and LPs are clever; more than annoying?

You and your horses, un-Americqn commie c—-

s

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 9, 18 @ 1:39 am