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Another look at that NBC/Marist poll

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Illinois
Polls

* Never make assumptions based on just one poll in August. Or at any time for that matter. For instance, a Tribune poll in September of 2014 had Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner by eleven points. That didn’t work out too well.

While those Tribune poll results went against the national pro-GOP tide four years ago, this new NBC/Marist poll seems to go right along with the national “blue wave” predictions. JB Pritzker leads Gov. Rauner by 16 and the Democrats have a huge ballot advantage in congressional races.

Even so, the poll has some very puzzling results in the crosstabs.

It’s not weighted too heavily for Democrats (38 percent), but polls of registered voters will tend to skew a bit more Democratic than polls of likely voters, and this one is of registered voters. It’s close enough on the geographical and racial splits, but it does look a bit on the young side.

* For me, anyway, the really odd results are in the collar counties and in central/southern Illinois. As you know, Hillary Clinton won every collar county except McHenry and Donald Trump did really well in Downstate.

Yet, when asked if they preferred a Republican or Democratic Congress, the collars chose the Republican Party 45-40 and central/southern Illinoisans chose the Democrats 44-40. The partisan margins in both regions were even more pronounced when asked which party they intended to vote for in the congressional elections.

Same for the governor’s race. The collars chose Rauner 40-34, while central/southern Illinoisans preferred Pritzker 43-33. A ten-point winning margin in that region would be an absolutely stunning upset for Pritzker and would reverse decades of trends.

* Now, even if the poll is dead wrong about those two regions, the overall results could be close to right. I’ve seen plenty of polls with some questionable crosstabs that wound up mirroring the final overall result. Also, Clinton won Illinois by 17 points and this poll has Pritzker ahead by 16. Another wave is almost assuredly heading our way. Etc., etc.

All I’m saying here is that either a couple of this poll’s regional results are off or are expectations are off. We’ll find out in November.

Also, for the small number of you who think that Pritzker should be leading by even more than 16 points, I’d point you to the very similar 2016 presidential results and the fact that the last time a sitting governor lost reelection by double-digits was 1960, when Otto Kerner clobbered GOP Gov. Bill Stratton by 11 points.

* Coverage roundup…

* Poll: Democrat leads expensive race for Illinois governor: And 57 percent of voters say their choice for Congress in November will be a message for more Democrats to “check and balance” Trump, while 32 percent say it will be a message for more Republicans to help pass the president’s agenda.

* NBC/Marist poll: Pritzker up by 16, Rauner 2-to-1 unfavorable rating: The poll showed Pritzker ahead of Rauner among self-described independent voters 43 percent to 25 percent and among those with a moderate ideology, 50 percent to 25 percent. Rauner had the advantage among self-described conservatives 55 percent to 20 percent and was backed by 71 percent of supporters of Donald Trump despite the governor’s aversion to speaking about the controversial president.

* Poll: Democrat leads expensive race for Illinois governor: With the state hosting at least four competitive U.S. House races this November, the poll also shows Democrats enjoying a 14-point advantage in congressional preference, with 49 percent of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 35 percent wanting Republicans in charge. Inside those numbers, Democrats lead among women (54 percent to 30 percent) and men (44 percent to 39 percent); among voters in populous Cook County (59 percent to 23 percent); among independents (43 percent to 32 percent); and among whites with college degrees (54 percent to 34 percent).

* TV news poll shows Pritzker leading Rauner by 16 points: Poll takers were also asked about how President Donald Trump is doing. Of registered voters, 56 percent said they disapproved of his performance, with 32 percent saying they approved.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:05 am

Comments

I thought the support for Pritzker among self-described Trump supporters was surprisingly high:

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:14 am
The approval/disapproval of Rauner and Trump are interesting by how far the spread is.

If those numbers are an accurate measure, it would be tough to see how Rauner couldn’t be at least double digits behind.

That’s where I am.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:21 am
Nothing you don’t know, but subsamples of polls are a lot more volatile because the sample size is so much smaller. That explains the regional numbers, and definitely explains the Trump voters in Cook County numbers.

That being said, I’ve heard that internal polls do have Rauner surprisingly weak downstate.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:24 am
=== thought the support for Pritzker among self-described Trump supporters was surprisingly high:===

Those are not Trump supporters. That’s the regional overall breakdown.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:25 am
Your points are well taken Rich. But however you slice it, this poll is nothing but bad news for Governor Rauner.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:27 am
–Those are not Trump supporters. That’s the regional overall breakdown.–

I see my mistake now. Mea culpa. Thanks.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:30 am
— For instance, a Tribune poll in September of 2014 had Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner by eleven points —

It is much more logical for an incumbent, no matter how unpopular, to be ahead of the challenger at this early stage. Yes, poll are snapshots and can be wrong, but for the 2014 script to be flipped in 2018 is all kinds of bad for Brucey

Comment by Hyperbolic Chamber Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:35 am
== It is much more logical for an incumbent, no matter how unpopular, to be ahead of the challenger at this early stage. ==

Yep, that’s what stuck out to me. Part of it is attributable to the state’s partisan lean, but really bothersome for Rauner. And, he won’t be able to catch up by outspending his opponent this year.

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 10:50 am
I have a feeling (maybe it is the new meds kicking in?) and have had it for a while that people are messing with the polsters. If I am Pritzker, I do not want too much attention paid to a lead. He needs to get the vote out and, please correct me if I am wrong other here understand this far better than I do, but stories about a large lead can reduce turn out since some may take it for granted that the election is in the bag.

Rauner has to go, McCann needs to kick this thing into high gear, I would like to see him with a much higher percentage than the poll showed. He can serve as a cautionary tale for vendetta seeking future governors.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 11:03 am
I keep thinking if Biss or Kennedy was the candidate, Rauner would be crushing them with a massive money advantage.

Borrowing from the pro gun crowd:

The only way to stop a bad governor with a loaded bank account is a good candidate with a more loaded bank account.

Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 11:33 am
Following up on what JS Mill says - not only do polls showing a big lead this early cause worry for turnout numbers, but also worry about Caprara/Pritzker getting complacent and taking their foot off the gas. Spending reductions and less focus on Rauner/more focus on Trump will be a bad sign going forward. Hopefully they know better, but it wouldn’t shock me if it happens.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 11:42 am
Interesting — unless I’m misreading it, it looks like their script described McCann as a “Constitution Party” candidate. I wonder if he would have snared a few more of Rauner’s preference leaners if he’d been described as the “Conservative Party” candidate, which I thought he was(?)

Comment by Math(usually)Doesn’tLie Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 12:56 pm
Kerner beat Stratton by 11 in 1960.
Gee that was a genius move, said no Illinois historian, ever.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 1:04 pm
== McCann needs to kick this thing into high gear ==

Sam has been doing the one on one campaigning every day and a bunch of social media stuff. I see something on Facebook every day. All of that is low dollar but can have a large impact for the cost.

Let’s face it; Sam can’t outspend Rauner and JB, so you won’t see a lot of large media buys from him right now. Might be some a bit later in the campaign if he gets some big donations.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 2:09 pm
in terms of probabilities, one out of 20 or so polls is likely to be a “bad poll.”

Comment by Jim the ruralist Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 3:45 pm
If Governor Walker had won his re-nomination in 1976, he, instead of Governor Stratton, would have been the last IL Governor defeated by double-digits, but yes it is a rare event.

Comment by K Man Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 3:53 pm