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Ives and Axelrod on Rauner

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Illinois
Polls

State Rep. Jeanne Ives, the Wheaton Republican who came within 3 percentage points of knocking off GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner in the March primary, said she’s not surprised by poll results showing the governor with weak support from conservatives.

Ives also acknowledged she has not spoken to Rauner about the election since the primary. Asked if he had reached out to her, Ives said, “Not that I know of.” […]

“I’m not surprised by the poll results. I travel the state still. I’m asked to speak around the state at various functions and I hear directly from Republican voters and so I’m not surprised by any of this,” Ives said at an unrelated downtown Chicago news conference. […]

Asked by a reporter if the meager showing for Rauner among conservatives was indicative of the conservative split, Ives said, “I think that is what the poll would indicate.” Still, Ives said she intended to stick to her commitment to “vote for the Republican nominee” on Nov. 6.

Yeah, that poll just doesn’t have a whole lot of good news for Rauner. The thing that jumped out at me the most was that 20 percent of registered voters who self-identified as conservative/very conservative said they were voting for Pritzker, while 55 percent were with Rauner.

* Politico talked to David Axelrod about the race…

“Any consultant would say you’ve got to take the other guy down. It may be too late for him to project any sense of why the next four years would be any different than the last four years. That’s the question,” Axelrod said.

“If he were to come back under these conditions, it would be one of the greatest political rehabilitation stories in Illinois history,” said Axelrod, who expects Rauner “to run brutal negative ads and hope he can knock Pritzker down to the point to pass him.”

Axelrod said Rauner’s favorability numbers also need to rise in order for him to get out of his funk. The poll shows voters have a negative opinion of him by a 2-to-1 margin. Those numbers seem “almost impossible to surmount,” said Axelrod. “But impossible things happen in politics.”

Told of Axelrod’s comments, Rauner spokesman Alex Browning responded, “Pundits and public polling were wrong about Bruce Rauner in 2014 and they’ll be wrong again in 2018. With Illinois’ future on the line, voters care about lowering taxes and fighting corruption, not polling and prop bets.”

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:08 am

Comments

===“…It may be too late for him to project any sense of why the next four years would be any different than the last four years. That’s the question,”===

Bret Baier understood this too… when Rauner blew his FoxNews softball interview by being… the worst Republican Governor in America.

===Axelrod said Rauner’s favorability numbers also need to rise in order for him to get out of his funk. The poll shows voters have a negative opinion of him by a 2-to-1 margin. Those numbers seem “almost impossible to surmount,” said Axelrod. “But impossible things happen in politics.”===

All I’m going to say…

… I agree with this part, especially.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:14 am
==Pundits and public polling were wrong about Bruce Rauner in 2014==

This is wrong, right? There was the Trib’s bad poll, but the totality of the CW was that it was going to be a very close race and Rauner has a definite chance, if not an edge.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:19 am
Running toward Trump demonstrates Rauner’s desperation. Even the Trump bubble folks understand massive failure when they see it.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:26 am
September and October have always been known to have big turn in events concerning elections.

Comment by Long Time R Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:31 am
===This is wrong, right?===

FiveThirtyEight predicted Quinn would win, as did others. I think many pundits, national especially, assumed the Democratic tilt of the electorate would give Quinn the edge in an otherwise close race.

Comment by People Over Parties Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:32 am
Alex Browning misspoke about the 2014 polls. Final Rasmussen poll had Rauner +1 and Tribune had Rauner +2. Sun Times had Quinn +3. The polls predicted a close race. At least right now the polls aren’t even close to those of 2014. An incumbent GOP Governor trailing even by a little downstate is astonishing and can only be explained by a sitting Governor doing a really poor job.

Comment by The Dude Abides Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:38 am
==“Pundits and public polling were wrong about Bruce Rauner in 2014 and they’ll be wrong again in 2018. ==

Well, Bruce didn’t have a record to run on in 2014, now he does.

Comment by Henry Francis Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:39 am
==FiveThirtyEight predicted Quinn would win, as did others==

Hmm. RCP had it as a toss up. And I remember Rich had almost no idea what would happen.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:41 am
Long Time R, typically, yes. This year though? Who knows?

Comment by Fixer Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:42 am
===FiveThirtyEight predicted Quinn would win===

“The fight between an incumbent people don’t approve of and a challenger with his own flaws has resulted in a close race, but one in which Quinn is a favorite. The FiveThirtyEight model gives him a 66 percent chance of winning.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-day-left-the-most-competitive-races-for-governor/

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:44 am
==FiveThirtyEight predicted Quinn would win, as did others. ==

Depends on what point in the race you’re talking about. This far out, most polls did have Quinn winning by anywhere from 4-11 points. By the beginning of October they were all very close, if not within the MOE. That final two weeks most polls had it as a dead heat, a few with Rauner leading.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:45 am
Cook and Rothenberg had it as a toss-up, too. Sabayon had it as only Lean D. This is revisionist history.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 10:45 am
–This is revisionist history.–

That’s the best kind. Because you can shape it to make any nonsensical point you want to.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 11:09 am
In 14 Rauner didn’t have a record to run against and Quinn did. This year Rauner is running against himself first and Pritzker has no record. Turn about is fair. If Rauner loses (and no reason to think he’ll win) he has no one to blame but himself. People wanted something different but still wanted state government to work. His approach was to go all in from the first hand and he lost. I still think people would vote for someone who was willing to make change that helps people, stands up against all the entrenched special interests and is willing to work collaboratively. Will JR, I don’t see reasons to believe that but I think we’ll find out.

Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 11:13 am
The story of Quinn losing as a very mild favorite should not be read as “Rauner is a skilled politician who’s really good at closing,” it should be read as “Undecideds break against unpopular incumbents when their party is on the bad side of a wave.”

Comment by LXB Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 11:20 am
LXB is probably right.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 11:21 am
== I still think people would vote for someone who was willing to make change that helps people, stands up against all the entrenched special interests and is willing to work collaboratively. ==

Too bad that candidate isn’t on the ballot from either of the major parties.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 11:44 am
Lots of us knew Rauner would probably beat Quinn, as far back in the primary, which is why we pulled Republican ballots to vote against him.

Comment by Who Knew? Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 1:09 pm
So here’s a question: Do you think Rauner has been dragging his feet when it comes to funding HRO because it kills him to give money to people who supported Ives?

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 3:35 pm
Lets face it Rauner is history

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 23, 18 @ 7:44 pm
Ives is traveling Illinois and meeting conservatives because everyone assumes that Rauner is out. He most likely is.

Unless Harold wins and no GOP congressmen are interested in state offices, Ives is all that’s around.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 6:25 am