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More on Pritzker’s revenue guesstimate as he launches new TV ad

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Reporters including from POLITICO have been pressing Democratic gubernatorial candidate J.B. Pritzker for weeks to cough up some details about his preferred graduated income tax rates. We’ve heard over and over that wealthy people like him and Bruce Rauner would be taxed more. And that he wants to negotiate with lawmakers before coming up with a rate. Yadda, yadda, yadda. Again and again. Capitol Fax’s Rich Miller finally threw up his hands and called Pritzker on the carpet for being “stuck firmly to this script.” Miller went on to speculate his own numbers. But that’s not going to make Pritzker any more forthcoming. And here’s why: Putting out any kind of number would only be political ammunition for his opponent. Rauner would clog the airwaves with ads about the rate number, the same way he did with those toilets.

First, reporters have been asking for those rates for more than just weeks. It’s been months. Maybe even a year or more.

And, yes, I agree that the Pritzker campaign likely isn’t going to release its numbers because doing so would give the other side some big ammo. Duh. That’s why I decided to do it myself. Unlike the rate issue, needed revenue is a question I could answer myself, but I had to ask them first just to see if they wanted to stick their necks out. We’ll just have to see if Team Rauner uses that back of the envelope guesstimate I published yesterday.

* Meanwhile, the Pritzker campaign has a new TV ad on this very topic. Rate it…

* Transcript…

When you’re a failure, you lie. Bruce Rauner is intentionally misquoting newspapers to lie about JB Pritzker. The very same articles make clear Pritzker only wants to raise taxes on wealthy people. Most people would see a tax reduction. Lower and middle income taxpayers would not pay more. And JB’s plan increases funding for schools and reduces property taxes on local homeowners. Four years of failure and lying is enough.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 9:41 am

Comments

I was waiting on an ad like this from Pritzker.

Rate = A

Comment by Real Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 9:46 am
Omitting key facts can also be a lie in today’s political environment. His attempts at a lateral pass on letting the legislature decide how the new taxes will hit including a definition of middle class or working class fall flat and open him up to justifiable criticism. He needs to wear his big boy pants and own up to his own proposals, like everyone else, and like he has demanded of Rauner.

Speaking of big boy pants and costumes, what is interesting about the new Pritzker ad posted here, is him wearing six different costumes in those visuals. After running that Rauner costume ad? I don’t have time to rewatch the latest Pritzker ad this morning, so feel free to correct me.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 9:50 am
This really works only if people have seen the Rauner ad to compare. I do like it, and it needed to be done to point out the lies and misdirection from BTIA, but I have to go B+ at this time. Keep using the positives and full color, though, to counter the apocalyptic tones from BTIA.

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 9:53 am
Bruce Rauner ran for governor promising to roll back the income tax and increase spending on education. He never detailed the cuts to state spending he would need to enact to pay for those things — which, coincidentally, would have added up to about the same $6.1 billion Rich estimated Pritzker’s promises would cost. What’s good for the goose…..

Comment by Roman Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 9:55 am
I’d give it a C. It doesn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know.

Now if JB would tell us his proposed progressive tax rates and the corresponding income tiers, I would give it an A.

Comment by SSL Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 9:57 am
Agree with Real, good response ad. Team Pritzker will end up regretting it if they give in to the one sided demands of the pro-Rauner media. Notice nobody is asking about Bruce’s plan to fix the financial dumpster fire he created, should he get re-elected. Maybe Illinois media types are looking forward to four more years of total war? Certainly would provide them with more click bait than dems passing legislation and Pritzker signing it into law without all the insults and accusations we’ve become used to.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:06 am
Putting out rates now doesn’t make sense because those will have to be negotiated with the GA after the graduated tax amendment passes. Those rates will depend on a number of revenue enhancers that could be approved well before the graduated tax.

We will likely have legal Marijuana well before the graduated tax and the revenues from that will affect the income tax rates needed. So why guess at rates at this point when you are running ahead by 16 points?

But the ad should calm some middle class fears.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:10 am
Sounds great in the abstract, but if there is a plan to do all those things, there must be numbers. Makes me harken back to Sen. Paul Tsongas accusing his opponents of wanting to be Santa Claus. Santa ain’t visiting Springfield.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:11 am
Very good ad. It calls out Rauner and positions Pritzker as raising taxes on the wealthy, cutting them for others and reducing property taxes. It’s a strong, simple and clear beginning for the conversations we need to have about our fiscal future. It sets Pritzker apart from Rauner, who wants to gouge workers for big savings and rabidly refuses paying more.

A

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:12 am
I’d give it a C. It doesn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know.

-The ad is targeted towards the average person that’s not into politics as much as you are so they might not know Rauner is lying about JB raising taxes.

Comment by Real Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:13 am
High on production quality, but the message is problematic. He’s saying I have this plan that I want to sell you, but no you cant see the details. Overall a C.

Comment by Texas Red Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:18 am
A-
Good use of quotes from those newspapers to both counter Rauner’s lies and subtly sell his plan. Love the “4 years of failure AND LYING is enough” tagline.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:20 am
The ad. B. Pritzker, like Rauner. Like Republican,like Democrat. Make habits out of lying to us simpletons.

Comment by BlueDogDem Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:30 am
Rich, Link above is going to Frerichs-Dodge QOTD thread.

Comment by Responsa Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:40 am
Well, it comes out and says he wants to raise taxes…
on wealthy people. Now, besides JB and Bruce, we’re not sure just who else is in the category of the wealthy. So it’s left to the voter to figure it out themselves.

It’s why JB is NOT winning in the collars. Even the most middle class people living in those counties have been told they are wealthy. They pay very heavy property taxes there…because, they’re told; they’re wealthy.

When they see and hear this ad; they’ll interpret themselves to be among the wealthy. We’ll see how it plays out, but this ad made be a big problem. If it isn’t, I don’t see it helping too much. A big risk to answer the question Rich and others are asking.

Comment by A guy Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:48 am
Wearing different normal clothing at different events strung together in an ad isn’t pretending to be a cowboy one day and a farmer whose jacket never gets dirty are not the same thing.

Comment by Cheryl44 Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:54 am
A++
All it lacks is laughing — aka Lyin’Laugh
Let’s be honest nothing GovJunk does or sez is truthful. He talks about cuttin’ prop taxes but wants to push state pension costs to local. he talks about rollin’ back state tax hike, but SPENDS EVERY DIME.
He pretends he has no blame in the death of the Quincy vets.
The best ad is really GovJunk’s costume closet

Comment by Annonin' Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 10:59 am
The ad is all fluff and empty calories. Lots of candidates make grand promises. I’ll believe them when I see an actual framework.

Will JB raise taxes? Yes. What are the buckets? Dunno yet. How much? Dunno yet. How will this affect me? Dunno yet.

So JB is essentially saying that we have to vote for his plan before we know what’s in it? Great message. That’s never backfired before.

C-

Comment by ChrisB Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:09 am
==Now if JB would tell us his proposed progressive tax rates and the corresponding income tiers==

He doesn’t have to tell us that. All we need to know is the break-even point where everyone below pays less and everyone above pays more.

JB obviously feels millionaire’s should pay more. Maybe he should guarantee only millionaires will ever pay more while he is governor. Or maybe it’s $50,000. Hard to tell.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:20 am
A guy - Exactly. Those collar counties already send a disproportionate amount of revenue to Springfield. I’m guessing their take home pay net expenses don’t make them feel all too wealthy.

It’s been said there are people who are against raising taxes on the wealthy because they too imagine they will be equally wealthy someday. I can guarantee you the amount of people who think they’ll be hundred-thousandaires is exponentially higher. Which is why JB is walking on eggshells with these rates.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:30 am
Easy ad to rebut…

A woman looks at the camera:
JB Pritzker says he wants to only increase taxes on the “wealthy”. Some estimates put the amount of new taxes at 5.6 billion dollars. How are you going to define “wealthy” to come up with 5.6 billion dollars?
JB hasn’t said. He hasn’t said who is going to pay or how much more they are going to pay.
Now he complains that Governor Rauner is misrepresenting JB’s plan, a plan with no details.

He wants to give you the impression that his tax increase isn’t going to impact you…
Do you trust him?”

Comment by OneMan Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:32 am
==they’ll interpret themselves to be among the wealthy==

There’s a ton of socioeconomic research that says this goes the other way, that most people, even when fairly wealthy, consider themselves middle class. That, in part, is why the collar counties are so enraged about their property taxes, they believe that they are unjust.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:36 am
JB’s progressive income tax makes it easier to raise taxes in future years, by adjusting the rates. No person with even half a brain could believe JB will only raise taxes on the rich, to pay for all our debt and his new spending.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:46 am
Is it effective? The JB ad definitely tries to project a reassuring “don’t worry, be happy” vibe to voters that his tax increases won’t impact them. For me it carried the echo of “if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor”. I think many cynical Illinoisans will interpret it that same way, which is why I give it a C-.

Comment by Responsa Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 11:56 am
Annonin’ points out a potential goldmine. Pritzker should run ads pointing out how Rauner laughs before lying or avoiding answering a question in the week leading up to each debate. Then, when Rauner laughs at a question, JB can channel Ronald Reagan with “there you go again”.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 12:03 pm
Ars, 1:36. I believe you are precisely correct. They don’t consider themselves wealthy; because they really aren’t. They may live a bit more nicely than other regions, but they’re spending as fast as they’re earning.

Self identified, they consider themselves middle class. Externally they’re perceived as wealthy. And they know it.

Comment by A guy Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 1:03 pm
Here’s some added color to the Chicago Pension Bonds concept:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2018/08/24/why-chicagos-pension-obligation-bond-plan-is-even-worse-than-it-seems/#5d2c29297e5b

Comment by Occam Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 1:57 pm
==For me it carried the echo of “if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor”.==

Heh, if voters think of Obama/Obamacare when they see a JB commercial, he’ll do another stiff dance.

==Self identified, they consider themselves middle class. Externally they’re perceived as wealthy.==

And I think they default to their self-identification when they’re assessing a political ad.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 2:06 pm
===Omitting key facts can also be a lie in today’s political environment.===

- Louis G Atsaves -

You figure out where Rauner graduated high school, or…

To the Ad,

The best part is JB in the ad.

The rest is selling policy without anything to show an actual grasp of policy.

If you want to make him look ridiculous, run ads on policy so the questions keep coming.

It’s like an old Rauner ad…

It’s a B on execution…

It’s a… “yikes” on actually being about substance to policy.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 2:19 pm
He need about 2 to 3% of the income of those over 100k a year to get 6 billion . So some combo of rates above 100k will get there but that can’t happen until 2020 so some things clearly will wait.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Friday, Aug 24, 18 @ 3:52 pm