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Down, but far from out

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

If you were wondering whether the latest NBC/Marist poll showing Gov. Bruce Rauner trailing J.B. Pritzker by 16 points was enough to take the wind out of the incumbent, you only had to look to an event last week for an answer.

Rauner, along with other major statewide candidates, spoke to the Illinois Agricultural Legislative Roundtable near Normal. It’s a rite of passage for statewide hopefuls. They speak and take questions under a large, open-sided tent next to a cornfield. The event is not easy to get to and even more difficult to endure because the August heat is rarely kind.

But the context and conditions didn’t seem to faze Rauner. “Everything is on the line in this election,” he told attendees.

And as he has for months on end, Rauner warned of Pritzker’s ties to Chicago’s “corruption” and Speaker Madigan, which are basically two sides of the same coin to this governor. It was as clear as ever that he truly believes this stuff. He’s the good guy on the white horse (or motorcycle, if you prefer) who was born to save the state from the “evil” machine.

Rauner also unveiled a new TV ad last week with the tag line: “J.B. Pritzker and Mike Madigan. Higher taxes. More Corruption.”

He may very well go down in flames this November, but he and his people have long made it clear that Pritzker’s win won’t come without a steep price. He appears ready to battle all the way through, even if he isn’t thrilled about the billionaire Pritzker’s ability to outspend him.

Rauner admitted during the Illinois State Fair that Pritzker is outspending him 3-to-1. The dollar margin may narrow a bit, but I doubt that the overall gap will ever be closed. He’ll have to make up for the cash disadvantage by going over the top with his negative attacks.

Rauner’s tenure as governor and the national political climate have combined to just about destroy his reputation (his unfavorable rating is twice as high as his favorable rating in that NBC/Marist poll). It’s far too late and the national headwinds are far too strong to totally rehabilitate his image with the general public. So Rauner’s best path to victory appears to be to drag Pritzker down as far as he possibly can.

By contrast, “this guy Pritzker,” as the governor likes to refer to him, came across last week as a happy warrior when it was his turn to speak. Few in that heavily Republican Farm Bureau audience will be voting for him come November, but he didn’t behave as if he was in hostile territory. The man has skills.

In person, Pritzker comes across as genuine and accessible, two traits you don’t usually associate with billionaires who are allegedly tied at the hip to a corrupt political machine. He just doesn’t match up with the governor’s negative hype.

He parried Rauner’s attacks with a believable smile and got in some solid jabs of his own as he recounted pieces of the now-familiar story of the years-long governmental impasse. He admitted his ignorance on certain topics instead of trying to bluff his way through and promised to listen and learn, which are not things the governor does on a regular basis.

One concern I’ve heard since the last poll came out is about voter complacency. If the polling continues to show large Pritzker leads, will his campaign lay back and will Democratic voters stay home?

I don’t think the campaign will let up. To illustrate my point, Pritzker’s campaign manager tweeted in all caps the night the NBC/Marist poll was published: “DON’T GET COMPLACENT, PEOPLE.” And in a year like this, defined mainly by opposition to what’s happening in and around the White House, people are probably gonna vote no matter what. Things can always change, but this trend shows no signs of abating soon.

Pritzker’s candidacy is basically billed as the antidote to Raunerism and a protective wall against President Trump. And that’s not a bad idea when every poll including this last one has Rauner doing worse than Trump.

But a win also has to have some meaning outside of “I’m not him.” If he does win, he’ll have to govern.

Pritzker has to show legislators that he took some risks with policy ideas so that they will, too. Otherwise, they’ll behave in Springfield next year the way he’s been on the campaign trail this year and stick to only poll-tested ideas that won’t rock the boat.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:03 am

Comments

Great coverage of the upcoming election. This draws a sharp contrast between the two candidates. Well Done.

Comment by Retired Educator Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:10 am
It’s just very hard to believe that Rauner can win if his only strategy is an ongoing full throated attack on Pritzker.

Rauner is the incumbent. At some point, he has to give people a reason to want to give him 4 more years.

Comment by slow down Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:16 am
The Democrats staying home issue is a valid concern, but I think for the first time in a long time (probably since ‘08??) Dems are going to be the more fired up party going to the polls.

Trump has lit a fire underneath Democrats and I think that energy is going to remain extremely high until Trump is gone.

Comment by Zeep Bow Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:20 am
Pritzker’s apparent humility is great and such a contrast to Rauner, who spews out robotic talking points of blaming Madigan and others.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:32 am
Between hostility toward Trump and hostility toward Rauner, I don’t think too many Democrats will be staying home. At least I hope not.

Comment by Nick Name Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:33 am
I was a little surprised last week by Rauner’s strong tilt to the Trump true-believers in his shameless rhetoric on Mollie Tibbetts and how he loves what’s going on in DC, in effect praising Trump without saying “Trump.”

Obviously, he’s concerned about his far-right flank. But there is not a path to victory in Illinois going in that direction this late in the game.

Maybe that’s just who he really is. Could it be that Rauner will be honest and authentic for the next couple of months? How refreshing.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:35 am
Every democrat I’ve spoken to remembers the shock of Trump’s election and the confidence going into election night. With that feeling of ‘how could this happen’ still fresh, I don’t think complacency will be a problem this year. I wonder though if Republicans will come out to vote or instead stay home thinking what’s the point our guy is gonna lose regardless.

Comment by James from Lakeview Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:36 am
==Rauner’s best path to victory appears to be to drag Pritzker down as far as he possibly can.==

You forgot to add, “while hoping that Illinois residents have been in a coma and have no recollection of Bruce’s actions while in office.”

Comment by Jocko Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:38 am
Democrats are going to be tripping over each other trying to get to the polls. They won’t be complacent at all. Rauner has no path to victory. I don’t mean that in a snarky drive-by way either. He just doesn’t. Angry Ives voters haven’t forgotten about HB 40. Democrats, on the other hand, are as united and fired up as I’ve ever seen. That’s quite a combination considering we’re in a blue state.

Comment by Can Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:44 am
But the context and conditions didn’t seem to faze Rauner.

-It wouldn’t faze me or many others either if we were in those conditions and knowing we had 9 homes and hundreds of millions of dollars in the bank.

Comment by Real Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 9:54 am
Blagojevich did it to Topinka, Quinn did it to Brady - there’s recent history of unpopular incumbents winning by going hypernegative.

Also like those examples Rauner has a third party candidate who despite 150’s intentions will get none of the above votes that should be going to the challenger.

Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:05 am
Rauner may not be down, but he sure seems to be out. While recent elections across the globe have demonstrated that polls aren’t very good predictors of close elections, I don’t know of a case where a poll was wrong when there was a double digit deficit.

As for the opinion expressed by some that democrats can’t wait to flock to the polls, I’m not sure about that one. I don’t think either one of these candidates inspires hope or confidence in a better tomorrow for Illinois.

Comment by SSL Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:06 am
Rauner better be glad it’s not a 1 on 1 race because he’ll never make it to 50 percent let alone 50 percent plus one. Scorched earth and kamikaze tactics are the only things he has.

Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:09 am
we are sure the GovJunk team appreciates the compassionate effort to heimlich the campaign.
Too little too late.

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:18 am
–Rauner better be glad it’s not a 1 on 1 race…–

I doubt that very much. The great majority of the votes that McCann and Jackson will get would most certainly be Rauner’s in a one-on-one race.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:20 am
== wonder though if Republicans will come out to vote or instead stay home ==

I don’t think you can assume anything this election cycle. Trump supporters are also fired up. They will turn out for the few national races in Illinois where they might make a difference.

The big question, though, is will they vote for Rauner, the conservative candiate McCann, or JB? I still think the Ives’ voters will end up in McCann’s camp because they have no where else to go.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:24 am
@Fax In the example you gave the unpopular incumbents were Democrats, unlike Rauner. JB doesn’t have a negative record that can be attacked either like the two examples you gave and Rauner’s negatives are higher than Brady’s and Topinka.

Comment by The Dude Abides Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:45 am
==Blagojevich did it to Topinka, Quinn did it to Brady==

Yes. But, otoh, those are examples of Democrats using cash advantages to bury Republicans.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:47 am
Dear Wordslinger,

Re: McCann and Jackson votes going to Rauner if they weren’t running, do you think this means the AG race will be close, because those voters won’t go for Raoul?

Comment by DarkHorse Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:48 am
JB doesn’t have a negative record that can be attacked?

Well I guess if you are all right with a billionaire trying to get himself appointed state treasurer by a corrupt Governor he made contributions to , removing toilets from a spare mansion to save 250K in property taxes and parking the vast majority of his billions in the Cayman Islands.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 10:54 am
==JB doesn’t have a negative record that can be attacked?==

I think he meant a public record.

But it’s interesting that Rauner has pretty much given up trying to attack JB on the things you listed and has just collapsed into ranting about Madigan.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:14 am
I think all of the usual subgroups will break away from rauner, to the benefit of JB, by at least a majority. Union support for rauner. Ives voters. Undecideds. Repubs who gave rauner the benefit of the doubt first time around.

If negative ads were going to move the needle for rauner, i think we would be seeing some movement by now. I am wondering what each side has in store for the last two months.

Comment by Langhorne Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:20 am
How about a public record of supporting and having zero daylight between him and the the most unpopular politician in Illinois- Mike Madigan?

The man who thinks all Illinois needs is more tax revenue, not reform of our government, property tax system and business environment.

Not a great public record if you want to lead a state that has the highest distrust of state government in America.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:36 am
Too early for a solid prediction. Mistakes with big impact can still be made.

Comment by walker Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:38 am
@wordslinger, I’m with you. Rauner’s right shift on immigration is really interesting.

You might be on to something about him just going with what he believes instead of concentrating on middle-of-the-road image making — because it doesn’t make a ton of political sense for him to go hard right. It’s certainly not how he got elected. And there are even fewer conservative votes for him to mine with McCann on the ballot.

Then again, I thought he was a traditional Reagan/Bush, big business, pro-immigration Republican. Who knows what he truly believes. Maybe he looks at the polling and sees that despite HB 40 and the Trust Act he’s not attracting any moderate and Latino support, so he’s changing positions out of anger as much as anything else.

Comment by Roman Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:45 am
I love the point about listening and learning. JB seems actually capable of doing that — and if he did, that would make him the first governor to be good at that since whom? George Ryan? (Ryan had other shortcomings for sure, and he was before my time, but I am told he was good at this.) It’s an incredibly important governing skill and not one that our governors of either party have been known for since at least the Blagojevich years.

Comment by WKJ Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 12:20 pm
==Not a great public record==

Lol. Says the guy defending a Governor with a dismal record.

And stop being a victim for crying out loud. All you do is play the victim.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 28, 18 @ 8:13 am