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So far, Bruno’s prediction is holding up for AFSCME

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Illinois

* The Sun-Times looks at the immediate aftermath of the Janus ruling…

As a result of that ruling, [labor expert Robert Bruno’s] research has predicted an 8 percent loss for Illinois’ total public sector unions, with teachers’ unions faring slightly better. […]

The American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees said “several dozen” former members had dropped out. Spokesman Anders Lindall said just 10 percent of the 75,000 public service workers represented by the union were fair-share payers.

Lindall, too, said “more than 1,000” fee-payers signed up as new dues-paying union members.

So, they had a net loss of about 6,500 people who were paying fair share fees and didn’t join the union. That’s about an 8.7 percent drop, which is darned close to Bruno’s prediction, particularly since teachers’ unions are expected to fare better.

But the loss could be higher if those “several dozen” card-carrying union members who dropped out actually number in the hundreds.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:07 am

Comments

Honestly I’m not worried about it.
Everyone gets in trouble at work at some point.
Management gonna be management
They’ll come running back at that point.
It’s inexorable.
It may take some time
But in the meantime
The assault on labor
Is s powerful motivator
Unifying and strengthening

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:18 am
I expect the number of members to continue to uptick — the 8% is a good projection, but in some cases it can take folks a bit of time to come around or take a bit of time for them to have a chat with the right person, or to have the experience in the work place.

Comment by Anon Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:23 am
For every 1 fair share payer that drops out completely, the union needs to convert 4 fair share payers to new dues-paying union members to break even.

Comment by City Zen Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:35 am
Those “Weak Sticks” that sold out and want to leach have to look in the mirror everyday. That feeling cant be worth a few bucks a week to know you didnt stand tall with your Union brethren

Comment by DeseDemDose Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:37 am
Janus himself paid $47/month X 6500 that equals approx $3.6 million/year

Comment by Texas Red Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:40 am
2 of of 5 union households. Wonder…..

Comment by BlueDogDem Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:42 am
Our staff was 98% union before Janus. This year they are 100% union which would be a gain of 12 full members.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:43 am
“the union needs to convert 4 fair share payers to new dues-paying union members” Or get one more fair-share member.

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:43 am
Maybe we’ll see if unions still have he value to retain members. It’s really about choice and I remain surprised by good Americans,in the unions that don’t want to support freedom of choice.

Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:47 am
==Those “Weak Sticks” that sold out…==

Guessing you’re not in Recruiting.

Comment by City Zen Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 11:50 am
Neverpoliticallycorrect - its not about choice. Its a political naked political moved to place a greater financial burden on dues paying members to cover those who want the benefits of there job, but don’t want to pay for it. Carry on with the wilful ignorance.

Comment by Ike Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 12:05 pm
Are fee payers considered “members”? How many fair share fee payers are continuing paying the fair share fee, but are not paying the full share fee. This article is a little confusing

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 12:15 pm
No one is paying a fair share for anymore. You are either a full member or a freeloader.

Comment by Raccoon Mario Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 12:44 pm
That should say “fair share fee anymore”

Comment by Raccoon Mario Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 12:45 pm
==6,500 people who were paying fair share fees and didn’t join the union.==

Will those names be posted in the shop? You know, free speech and all that. /s

Comment by Jocko Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 1:07 pm
Thanks Racoon Mario. I didn’t know that.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 1:13 pm
A non dues paying member is essentially a scab now. That’s what the Janus vs Afsme outcome determined. Shame on scabs

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 1:17 pm
My believe is that the main assault on labor Anders refers to will
Never come.
The corporate supremacists have gotten
way out over their skis.
They’ve got the Blue Tsunami to worry about.
They could lose it all.
wait…..
They will lose it all.
Dude…they wacked the wasp nest.
Labor ground game has
never
and I mean never
been more united and coordinated.
Door to door
Neighbor to neighbor
The anti union forks are the ones
Who have to worry.
Politician can’t be bought
that can’t be elected.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 1:33 pm
In the last 35 years, union membership has shrunk by half. That’s with Janus in place. What’s the problem. I’ll tell ya. Everybody wants union bennies,wages and protections. Nobody, including union folks, wanna pay for em.

Comment by BlueDogDem Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 1:45 pm
The unions have options if the loss of fees become an issue. They can consolidate with other unions. They can charge non-members fees for representation in grievances. The union also currently doesn’t charge retirees any fees. They can drop retiree representation or charge them a small fee. Retirees may see a small fee as insurance for there benefits.

But since the problems that caused public employees to unionize in the first place still largely exist, I think they will continue to have a strong membership.

Comment by A Jack Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 1:46 pm
I personally think AFSCME and SEIU consolidation would be of great benefit. They would no longer have to compete against each other for members and could possibly drop the need for exclusive bargaining. And think of the strength in numbers they would have.

So if the loss of fair share becomes a big issue, I hope they consider consolidation.

Comment by A Jack Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 2:00 pm
==Will those names be posted in the shop?==

“She named name.”

Hop Sing - Seinfeld

Comment by City Zen Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 2:05 pm
If it wasn’t for afscme those union members would already be paying triple for healthcare and possibly be let go due to outsourcing

I think it’s terrible the fair share people would drop and let their fellow coworkers / union members pay their way.

Afscme has saved your behinds these last 4 years

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 2:26 pm
I once worked for a school district that did not have fair share. Consequently, union officials had to work hard to recruit new employees by showing them membership was worth it. That system worked well. We had freedom of choice, and we also had a responsive, active union, representing the lion’s share of staff. Though I was Republican, I signed up.

Comment by anon2 Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 3:01 pm
It seems that more former fair share feepayers are joining the union than union members dropping out. That’s a bit of a silver lining at this point, considering the overall loss via ending fair share fees.

The unions don’t want to lose exclusive representation, which is a more than fair trade off for freeloading. The way to win over some or many nonmembers is to service them, rather than reject them and burn down bridges. The last thing unions ought to want is giving bosses like Bruce an inside track to bribe and union-bust.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 3:07 pm
Not paying union dues and paying a union carpenter,electrician or plumber cash on the side are the same thing. Who out there is guilty?

Comment by BlueDogDem Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 3:19 pm
BlueDog— I have been known to use a Plumber and an Electrician and paid them in 12 packs or cases depending on the job they were doing for me. Does that count?

Comment by SOIL M Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 3:44 pm
Soil. Let your conscience be your guide. But if they are union and you believe in the cause. Then yup. Guilty as mark janus.

Comment by BlueDogDem Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 3:46 pm
So if lower priced fair share fees are no longer an option, I guess the 6500 breaks down like this: a percentage of people are philosophically opposed to union and will just drop out. Another percentage got used to paying the fair share fees and now have to figure out how to pay for the bump. Another percentage is neither philosophically opposed nor financially strapped, but are procrastinators. Their union membership application is in a pile on their messy desk under some water bills and parking tickets.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 4:58 pm
If Pritzker ends up as bad as Rauner, there will be growth.

Or JB lets non union get no raises or promotions.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 6:14 pm
Missouri just passed a referendum against so-called “right to work”, so there’s hope.

Comment by Yu2 Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 6:51 pm
Missouri union numbers from 1983 to present. Approx 360,000 down to approx 225,000. As a percentage of total employed. From 20% down to 8%.Yu2, why the euphoria?

Comment by BlueDogDem Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 7:31 pm
Just a question. Any of you AFSCME members out there have Oreos in your closet?

Comment by blue dog dem Monday, Aug 27, 18 @ 8:36 pm
Hope and euphoria are two different things. I hope I get an A on the test. Yay. I got an A on the test.

The promising thing about the Missouri right to work vote is all the nonunion friends of labor who voted against it.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 6:57 am