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The reordering of Illinois

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Illinois

* Not all that many years ago, the Democrats dominated Chicago and southern Illinois. The Republicans dominated the suburbs (including much of suburban Cook County) and the non-urbanized Downstate areas. Nowadays, the Democrats (particularly at the presidential top of the ticket) are doing much better in suburbia and not so well in southern Illinois. Some of this, particularly in southern Cook and eastern DuPage, can be explained by black and Latino migration out of the city. But that’s not all of it. Here’s Ted McClelland…

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Illinois by an even larger margin than her husband, but she won only 12 counties, most of them in the Chicago area. She won DuPage County 53%-38%, and lost Williamson County 67%-28%.

Since 2000… the Democrats have become the party of urbanized, well-educated voters, which has made them much more appealing to suburbanites. Today’s suburbanites are more likely than the previous generation to be pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-environment, pro-gun control, and pro-government, willing to tax themselves for schools and libraries — all values associated with the Democratic Party. When the Republican Party was dominated by moderates in the Midwest and Northeast, it won the suburbs comfortably. But as the party is increasingly led by conservative partisans, suburbanites are shying away. Even the Chicago Tribune, once the voice of Midwestern Republicanism, has not endorsed a Republican presidential nominee since 2004.

The same qualities that have made the Democrats so popular in the suburbs have repelled rural voters. In May, I visited Williamson County for the Old King Festival in West Frankfort, which celebrates the area’s biggest industry. The local state representative, Dave Severin, who took office after defeating a Democratic incumbent in 2016, began his speech by shouting “Gods, Guns and Coal!” Then he cracked, “In Chicago, they don’t even know how to spell ‘coal.’ ” In socially conservative Williamson County, the Democrats are seen as hostile to Christian teachings on abortion and homosexuality, and to the coal industry, which Donald Trump promised to revive and protect. […]

In this reordering of political allegiances, the Illinois Republican Party traded the Chicago suburbs for Southern Illinois, the Democratic Party vice versa. The Democrats got the better end of that deal, because the suburbs are far more populous.

The Democrats did get the better end of that deal, but most of it was at the very top of the ticket in presidential years. There are still a lot of suburban Republican state legislators, for example. And some urbanized Downstate areas did see a spike for President Trump in 2016. We’ll see if that holds, but the suburban trend is certainly not all that friendly to the GOP.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 1:53 pm

Comments

Never have been able to figure out that ‘well educated’ term.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 1:57 pm
give me the thousands of moderate suburban women over the few hundred Trumpsters in a small downstate area any day

Comment by Not Rich Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 1:59 pm
Severin believes in multiple Gods?? Think he is forgetting a Commandment there. At least in Chicago they only worship one God. And by the way bumpkins, Muslims and Christians share the same God. We just have different prophets. Heads exploding in 3 2 1..

Comment by y Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:03 pm
–“Gods, Guns and Coal!” –

Is polytheism really a thing down south? Roman? Greek? Hindu?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:03 pm
==Never have been able to figure out that ‘well educated’ term.==

Democratic policies are often empirically bases; I think welfare and tax policies are good examples of this. Republican tend to support the same tried policies with the same tired rhetoric, even when empirical evidence contravenes these policies. Think trickle-down. Going to school often implies learning these things-taught as “facts” at university-meaning those who have attended university often support values often seen as Democratic. This of course open up a broadside of Republicans-universities are too “liberal,” my retort being that academic empiricism knows no party.

Comment by DarkDante Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:03 pm
West Frankfort is in Franklin County, not Williamson.

Comment by RICO Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:04 pm
I’m well educated and am quite conservative. I attended flamingly liberal universities in two countries and regirgitated the liberal pap I was required to believe to get my degrees. But I never believed the unrealistic tripe shoved at me and today I believe that my stands on issues would ban me from these same universities. Thank goodness I attended when differing opinions were celebrated.

Traditional values are time-tested values. Voters want results, not feel good platitudes. Voters want results. It doesn’t matter party.

There’s nothing wrong with Southern Illinois.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:06 pm
And D’s have some solid women in the downstate cities

Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:07 pm
*Gods*?

I think he missed the memo on the monotheism Christianity thing…they wouldn’t like that down there…or…?

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:10 pm
Andersson (R) up here in Kane County was run out because he’s moderate. Not sure why McConnaughay retired–too moderate too?

And Casten and Underwood look primed to join the US House. A sea change from the 1990s.

Comment by Lefty Lefty Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:10 pm
–…I believe that my stands on issues would ban me from these same universities. –

What universities are those that you went to, that are banning students based on their stands on issues?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:14 pm
Certainly not for national candidates but for state reps and senators you cannot over estimate the harm re districting did to the Republican party in the collar counties. DuPage was cut up like a jigsaw puzzle. That is why when Pritzker wins and the Democrats retain house and senate Republicans will shrink even more. Unless the Democrats screw up something fierce it will be a long time before Republicans are anything but a rump party. And that is with or without Madigan Bruce

Comment by DuPage Saint Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:14 pm
I doubt Severin said “Gods” more likely the quote is incorrect. After all, it is the “Old King Coal” festival not “Old King” Festival.

Comment by sonny chiss Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:16 pm
The GOP is hurting big time in the suburbs…At the beginning of the 2000s, there were 9 GOP Senators who lived in Cook County (Walter Dudycz, Kathy Parker, Bill Maher, Dave Sullivan, Tom Walsh, Wendell Jones, Steve Rauschenberger, Pat O’Malley and Chris Radogno) but after this election there might not be any if Rooney loses!
And if things really go bad, Nybo, Curran and Connelly could all lose in DuPage!

Comment by Suburbs Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:18 pm
Democratic policies are often empirically based. WOW.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:21 pm
“…today I believe that my stands on issues would ban me from these same universities.”

So Vanillaman wants us to believe he knows everything. He knows why liberal arguments are “pap”. And he knows he went to school in a better time. He also knows he’s be banned from even thinking his way today.

VM, you sound like a good cult member of team Trump. You might even think Fox News is a real news source. You might want to check it out.

Comment by 33rd ward Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:23 pm
==Gods, Guns and Coal==

A: What are three things important in the 1930s that have limited use in a multicultural, pluralistic society, Alex.

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:30 pm
One of these days, my neighbors are gonna have a “come to Jesus” moment and realize that coal is never coming back. Until then, the facts don’t really mean too much to the, “God, guns and Trump” crowd.

Comment by Deep South Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:34 pm
The Republican party will rise again in Illinois, but not as long as Trump is its public face and everyone in the state party is afraid to offer more than token criticism of him.

Trump is just too toxic to too many Midwesterners. He -barely- won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, because voters didn’t like Hillary and wanted to give the new guy a chance. You see that pendulum swinging back across the Midwest, and it’s especially bad in IL, because IL was more Democratic than the rest of the Midwest to begin with.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:34 pm
OK Vanilla seriously. I went to one of the most liberal universities in the country. You can tell after all these years where I’m at politically. I was much the same at this university in the 80s.

My professor for an International Relations class tried to sell us on the efficacy of mutual assured destruction (MAD). Another TA gave me a C- because my compare-and-contrast final paper wasn’t conservative enough (topic was the National Review v. The Economist v. The Progressive on a political issue of the day).

I also took a Comp Lit class that the feminist professor retitled “Literature and Politics” on the first day. I survived and learned. Oh and my TA for the IR class above didn’t know who the Secretary of State was at the time. Yikes.

College is where you sort stuff out. It’s supposed to be complicated, and the more complicated the better. You “regurgitating liberal pap” did you and your classmates a huge disservice. You also seem to not have learned much during that time.

Comment by Lefty Lefty Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:37 pm
==give me the thousands of moderate suburban women over the few hundred Trumpsters in a small downstate area any day==

What makes you think they’re yours to have?

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:40 pm
==today I believe that my stands on issues would ban me from these same universities==

Really? What a crock. You certainly have your victimhood down today.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:43 pm
===today I believe that my stands on issues would ban me===

VM, you need to step away from some of those looney tunes websites you’re visiting.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:45 pm
===Andersson (R) up here in Kane County was run out because he’s moderate====

By Lefty’s statement some of Kane County is far right Republican and up here in McHenry County it is mostly far right Republican. A lot of Jeanne Ives signs here during the primary. So I am not sure how much Illinois is being reordered.

Yes DuPage County has become heavily Democrat BUT Wheaton is Jeanne Ives turf. And Jeanne Ives did better than expected in the primary. And from the Helene Miller Walsh recent post Lake Cty has it’s enclave of Republicans.

As for downstate, I went to Illinois State in the mid 1980’s and the students I talked to that were from the middle and southern part of the state were too put it nicely “very conservative” and as the John S. Jackson post mentions were similar to the “Deep South”.

Comment by Big Jer Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 2:54 pm
The political realignment in Illinois is part of a national trend — suburbs turning blue, smaller industrial towns and coal country turning red. It’s telling that none of the remaining coal mines in Illinois is a union shop.

Of course, coal’s decline is much more attributable to free market economics (primarily cheap natural gas) than it is to tree-hugging regulators. But dissertations on supply and demand don’t tend to fire up political rallies.

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 3:00 pm
My lifelong GOP-voting suburban parents have shifted to the Democratic party in the last decade, and very definitively since Trump. My mom really resisted changing her registration (she HATES Democrats), but she quit the party when it nominated Trump, and won’t vote for Illinois Republicans either, because she doesn’t believe a person of good conscience can remain in the party of Trump. She’s also FURIOUS about the GOP’s immigration stance, believing it goes against everything she believes as an American and a conservative. So she votes Democrat, and then is grumpy about it for days, since she’s pretty sure Democrats are evil … but she thinks they’re definitely the lesser of two evils these days.

Comment by Suburban Mom Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 3:07 pm
“…regirgitated the liberal pap I was required to believe to get my degrees. But I never believed the unrealistic tripe shoved at me.”
That’s a shame you spent all that money and time on something so worthless. It’s a good thing all those liberal math problems and progressive chemistry labs are behind you.

Comment by 17% Solution Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 3:13 pm
When’s the last time you’ve heard the term “Poshard Democrat”? Much like southern U. S. Dixiecrats, they are gone, having flung themselves into the arms of salivating Republicans some time ago, due to the effects of lost good jobs in the region.

Comment by Stumpy's bunker Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 3:21 pm
==One of these days, my neighbors are gonna have a “come to Jesus” moment and realize that coal is never coming back. Until then, the facts don’t really mean too much to the, “God, guns and Trump” crowd.==

DS - since you mentioned Jesus, if those folks believe He is coming back, then maybe believing coal is coming back isn’t much of a stretch.

Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 3:35 pm
Polytheism is bedrock (so to speak) in nearly all Christian traditions. Father, son, holy ghost, and Mary in some cases. To say otherwise is to ignore what is preached and taught in their houses of worship.

Comment by The Bashful Raconteur Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 3:52 pm
===Father, son, holy ghost, and Mary in some cases.===

Where did you get your theology degree, from a box of Cracker Jacks? You’re way, way off base.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 4:02 pm
Coal jobs are no longer a huge percentage of the workforce. It makes for a good populist slogan, but ignores the reality.

Comment by dr. reason a, goodwin Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 4:48 pm
“There’s nothing wrong with Southern Illinois.”

VM, you’re absolutely right. There’s a lot of great people in Southern Illinois. I’m proud of the diversity of my state and proud to have lived in all parts of this great state. However, the nonstop drumbeat out of some in Southern Illinois that Chicagoland is the root of all of Illinois’ problems gets old, especially when Southern Illinois gets a lot of money from Chicagoland. Blaming all the problems that part of the state has on a red herring does nothing to help solve the problems that region is facing.

Comment by SIUEalum Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 4:56 pm
–When’s the last time you’ve heard the term “Poshard Democrat”? –

I think that was the first time, actually.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 5:03 pm
Williamson County has been corrected to Franklin. Thanks for the catch, CapFax commenters. I should have known better, since I was just there.

Comment by Ted McClelland Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 5:39 pm
Maybe it was supposed to be a possessive series of two, as in “God’s guns and coal”

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 5:55 pm
@Suburban Mom
Sorry your mom has to experience the change the Republican party is going through. You might point out to your mom the Democratic party is a big tent and there are quite a few conservatives in it.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Aug 29, 18 @ 8:54 pm
When I read the post from “Suburban Mom” about her mom, I think that mom was never REALLY a Republican. I also wonder how “educated” is that mom.

Comment by GOP Forever Thursday, Aug 30, 18 @ 9:14 am