Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Hultgren’s first TV ad is unusual and emotional
Next Post: *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
Posted in:
* ABC 7…
Democratic candidate for Illinois governor JB Pritzker and Democratic candidate for Illinois attorney general Kwame Raoul lead their opponents by a wide margin in a new poll released late Thursday by the Illinois Broadcasters Association.
Asking 1,024 respondents who they’d choose for governor if the election were held today, the IBA poll showed Pritzker leading Republican governor Bruce Rauner 44 percent to 27.1 percent. Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann got 6.4 percent and Libertarian Party candidate Kash Jackson got 4.3 percent, and 12.6 percent said they didn’t know or hadn’t decided.
In the attorney general race, 43.4 percent of respondents said they’d vote for Raoul if the election were held today, while 31.7 percent said they’d vote for Republican candidate Erika Harold, and 20 percent said they didn’t know or hadn’t decided. […]
The poll found 23.9 percent of respondents had an overall favorable view of Rauner and 52.4 percent had an overall unfavorable view of him. Only 3.1 percent of respondents had never heard of the governor, and 3.8 percent said they had no opinion.
24 percent favorable. Whew. The report implies these were registered voters, however. Those results tend to skew more toward the Dems.
More here at NBC 5.
…Adding… Yep…
The CapFax/WAA poll in June had Rauner at 27:https://t.co/PcrzuJU3Ec
The NBC News/Marist poll in August had him at 30:https://t.co/qnjh8vrIAs
The latest Illinois Broadcasters Association poll has him at 27:https://t.co/A2i4K6PKsI
For an incumbent that is … not good.— Scott Kennedy (@ScottTKennedy) September 13, 2018
…Adding… Complete results are here.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:16 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Hultgren’s first TV ad is unusual and emotional
Next Post: *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Yeah, unless Rauner has a bombshell on Pritzker, I think I’d call it a day and save my money. Even with a bombshell, I don’t know if he’d make up the difference. People may point to Trump winning down in the polls, but Rauner is no Trump.
Comment by Snapper Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:24 pm
-24 percent
I guess that explains all the mea culpa, I’ve-learned-my-lesson stuff today.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:31 pm
I think these leads are outside the margin of error…
Rauner is unlikable… Rauner is a failure.
That’s 27%… for an incumbent governor.
Wow
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:35 pm
This comes under the heading, “All of the people all of the time”…bye bye Brucey
Comment by wondering Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:03 pm
As I view J.B. and Raoul as near certain winners, I’m curious about the Rauner-Harold spread — 6 points. If Harold can widen that to 10, she should feel great about her effort.
Comment by DarkHorse Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:10 pm
Snapper - Trump was never down by double digits.
Comment by TominChicago Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:12 pm
–People may point to Trump winning down in the polls, but Rauner is no Trump.–
The popular vote spread in the polls and the actual vote were within one percentage point.
I’m pretty sure there ain’t an electoral college among the 102 counties.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:20 pm
Sounds like Rauner is going to need a lot more incremental improvement between now and November.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:24 pm
DarkHorse,Pritzker and Raoul’s numbers are nearly identical. Sam McCann is polling at 6.4% in the governor’s race. That probably explains much of the difference between Rauner and Harold. With this, it appears McCann is drawing very little from the union vote, but is drawing heavily from conservative GOP voters.
Comment by Cyprian Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:33 pm
24%? Oof. That’s deep yogurt.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:35 pm
McCann at 6.4%… Rauner has to be wondering how different these numbers would be…
McCann over 5%… Rauner can’t find a constituency…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:35 pm
As I told a good friend today: the jury has made up its mind.
The. verdict is not gonna go Rauner’s way.
The question now is how harsh the sentence will be.
That’s what was bizarre about today’s speech: we are in the sentencing phase of the Trial of Bruce Rauner. JB Pritzker is arguing to lock him up and throw away the key. And Rauner - much like Rod Blagojevich - is refusing to offer a genuine apology. Never says he is sorry or specifically did anything wrong. Instead he argues everyone is to blame.
He is actually making himself less likeable. Nonapologies are infuriating.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:37 pm
9%. Just be smoking something.
Comment by BlueDogDem Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:38 pm
McCann over 5% gives Dan Proft an entirely new party, with ballot access, to play with in 2020.
Go long, on popcorn.
Comment by Hamlets Ghost Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:50 pm
–McCann over 5% gives Dan Proft an entirely new party, with ballot access, to play with in 2020.–
Presuming he keeps Sugar Daddy Dick happy. He’s the money, Proft is the help.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:55 pm
Gop candidates will regret their picture with Rauner
Comment by Rabid Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:59 pm
I somehow don’t feel at ease with such a lopsided result. It seems unreal, but then again Trump lost by a lot in Illinois. But it is what it is.
If the true lead really is 9-10 points, then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:20 pm
===then again Trump lost by a lot in Illinois===
17 points. Notice any similarities? Oof
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:22 pm
===Notice any similarities?===
Performing to Clinton/Duckworth spreads, outpacing Mendoza…
A good place to be in the polling.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:26 pm
Would love to see the breakdown by party, including independents.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:34 pm
Rauner can hope (1) history of 3rd party candidates fading on election day holds true for McCann and Libertarian and (2) he picks up those votes. That still leaves Rauner down, but in single digits.
Comment by #1 Anon Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:54 pm
===then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.===
With respect,
You can run a perfect campaign… and lose.
That is true. This is also true…
… you can run mediocre aspects and fundamental miscues in a campaign… and win.
The result isn’t always an indicator of the game played.
Such is life, as it is in campaigns.
With respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:31 pm
Aug 1974 - 24% approval rating.
who did it better?
Comment by Baloneymous Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:41 pm
===then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.===
Further? Sure…
You have an incumbent polling 26 points under water, under 30% in polling…
… it’s like watching bad baseball, for me, bad politics…. you can have a team win 7-3, but commit 3 errors, mishandle a bull pen, and the score… never ferrets out more than a box score showing resounding victory.
What really, really, *really* cool about this place Rich let’s us hang out in? It’s watching a 7-3 ball game, but seeing the missed signals and base runners thrown out. It’s seeing double plays turned because a table was set to turn two. It’s pitch sequences to strikeouts, and working counts to get hitters’ pitches… it’s home runs, it’s overmatched teams, it’s overcoming manager mistakes.
That’s the point, it’s another way to see the game everyone is watching. That’s another really cool thing, among many, about this place.
Respectfully,
OW
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:41 pm
But your still going to send us millions of dollars, right Governor?
Signed,
Jim Durkin, Bill Brady, Tim Schneider and Erika Harold
Comment by Red Ranger Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:44 pm
The “are u registered as a rep dem or Indy” question is odd
Comment by Question Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:46 pm
OW I’m with you. I hate the mistakes too, because oppo against Rauner is bountiful. There’s so much bad that he’s done, and to not utilize it is malpractice. We can’t guarantee outcomes but it’s owed to supporters to campaign the right way.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:55 pm
I’m not great at math but all those added up plus undecideds still leaves 5.6%. am I missing something. or someone?
Comment by Baloneymous Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:59 pm
JB really doesn’t have to campaign at all….
Comment by Steve Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:05 pm
At some point Rauner is going to reconcile himself to reality, that may have already happened, once it does it gets a lot less likely he keeps sending millions to other Republicans just so they can have a slightly less terrible night than him in November. Either we’ve already seen the last of the big money movements on the Republican side or we’re getting awfully close to it.
Comment by The Captain Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:06 pm
Most voters don’t know much about Raoul. I for one. Perhaps it is a party advantage, especially for that position.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:10 pm
This is truly bad.
53 days out and the other side has a sizable money advantage.
This polling is probably pretty close or we don’t have today’s bended knee speech from the Governor. If he were close or was up he’d be playing this much different.
The key now for the Pritzker crew, to prove their worth, is to bury him.
Keep excitement and motivation high among your voters, make sure everyone comes out to vote and then take away his voters will to even show up.
Comment by DuPage Bard Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:13 pm
“… you can run mediocre aspects and fundamental miscues in a campaign… and win.
The result isn’t always an indicator of the game played.”
True. Or, maybe they’re smarter than you give them credit for even though they’re not doing it the way you would do it.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:34 pm
===…maybe they’re smarter than you give them credit for even though they’re not doing it the way you would do it.===
It’s their race to run and win.
They’re leading in the polls.
Criticism is rarely a true or honest lone measure of how one may feel about anything.
It’s not personal, it’s business.
They can care less what I think.
They are going about *their* business. As it should be.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:44 pm
Does the Accused have any last words before being sentenced?
Meh, who cares. Let’s move on, wiser for having learned our lesson about teaching Pat Quinn a lesson.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Bruce. On second thought,..
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 6:35 am
Keep in mind this is also a registered voter poll, which typically skews 2-4 points towards Democrats. Also, poll had 45% Democrats responding, which seems high even if party affiliation is fluid.
Comment by #1 Anon Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:00 am
Given the consistency of poll results across June, August and September, how’d you like to be the poor campaign schmuck who has to tell Rauner when it’s time to write another multi-million-dollar check for the effort?
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:20 am
An opportunity lost, all because Rauner thought his money would be enough to overcome politics. All he accomplished was the eroding of Mike Madigan’s reputation.
Comment by Saluki Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:22 am
–An opportunity lost, all because Rauner thought his money would be enough to overcome politics.–
I wonder what that word salad is supposed to mean?
An “opportunity” to “overcome politics” for what?
Reward the hostage-taker by passing RTW and a prevailing wage repeal, something that a substantial majority of Illinois legislators –elected by the citizens — opposed?
Rauner get just a touch over 50% of the vote against Pat Quinn. He didn’t have any popular mandate for such things. The GA, a co-equal branch of government, performed their checks-and-balances function, as envisioned by the Constitution.
Rauner has to answer in November for the damage he caused in the zealous pursuit of his personal agenda to the detriment of his gubernatorial responsibilities.
Hence the 30% approval rating, and the whiny “I’m sorry” speech.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:42 am
When I heard the Governor’s apology speech yesterday I wondered if they had done some more recent internal polling that indicated that they hadn’t made much headway cutting into the Pritzker lead.
Listening to the speech, which started out as an apology, evolved into Rauner patting himself on the back, mentioning compromise with Democrats then proceeding to tear down Democrats and blaming them for the last four years.
I agree with an earlier post by Yellow Dog. His apology wasn’t sincere. It was an apology that really wasn’t one. I concur that a majority of voters have had their fill of this man and have made up their minds, they just want him gone. There are GOP leaning voters who remember the Rauner ad aligning Ives with Madigan. They know that was a lie and they now question the truthfulness in the most recent ads attacking Pritzker. That might explain why the recent ads about the graduated income tax and the mileage tax apparently aren’t moving the needle. His lies have caught up to him.
Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:55 am
For some of us, Mike Madigan’s reputation has improved because he stood up for workers against Rauner.
Indeed, after four years of Bruce Rauner, I would like to shake Mike Madigan’s hand and tell him what a fine job he has done as Speaker.
Comment by A Jack Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:14 am
One thing that worries me is that the Cubs are the best team in the National League, and should end up in the World Series.
The last time the Cubs won the World Series Trump was elected President.
Maybe the Cubs should take a dive to make sure something odd doesnt happen again this year.
Comment by SOIL M Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:31 am
A Jack, where are you coming from. MJM has decimated this state, sky high real estate taxes, sky high sales taxes, obligations ranging from $150 billion to $250 billion, depending on who does the calculations.
C’mon man
Comment by Pick a Name Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:57 am
===MJM has decimated this state===
… and yet, it’s Rauner himself admitting he’s a failure, trailing by 17 points, polling at 24% approval, and in that race, as the incumbent, polls a weak 27%…
Madigan is running unopposed.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:03 am
=All he accomplished was the eroding of Mike Madigan’s reputation.=
I’d say it’s a push on that front. Madigan wasn’t exactly popular when Rauner was elected. In fact Rauner was able to use the contempt AFSCME had for Quinn and Madigan to peel off enough votes to get himself elected. Now that they’ve seen the alternative Madigan might not look that bad in their eyes.
If anything Rauner has set Republican efforts back years. He had an opportunity to change the course of this state and squandered it. And he did it in such a way that he left the party weakened and it will make it that much more challenging for the next Republican who runs for governor.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:19 am
Willy, has MJM decimated this state or not? That is what I posted, if you want to refute it, fine, but saying MJM is running unopposed is the ultimate strawman.
Comment by Pick a Name Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:35 am
lol, - Pick a Name -… you’re such a piece of work.
Asked and answered, probably a dozen times.
I refer you to McKinney, arguably the best one stop look at Illinois finances, and Rich, whose body of work captures the real time issues how “we got here”, and Daniel Vock, in “Governing” who recently looked at Illinois and the financial issues.
See… I actually cited works where not only research happened, but all three see Madigan’s role… and Pate’s, Lee’s, Edgar’s… even Thompson’s…let alone Rod’s…
Your distain… or actual works addressing how we ALL got here…
Hmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:42 am
===MJM is running unopposed is the ultimate strawman.==
… but “ackurate”… ask Peraica and Gonzo about the running unopposed business, they deposed MJM for 5 hours.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:47 am
Willy, it will be fascinating to see your gleeful posts once JB is in office.
Comment by Pick a Name Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 12:36 pm
===it will be fascinating to see your gleeful posts once JB is in office.===
… like when Rod or Quinn were in office?
You go with that.
Why do you make it about me when you only look foolish doing so?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 12:38 pm