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Simon Poll: Pritzker leads by 22 points, Raoul up by 10, Dems more enthusiastic

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* Press release…

Democrat J. B. Pritzker holds a comfortable lead in the race for Governor of Illinois, with GOP incumbent Bruce Rauner and other candidates trailing. The number of undecided voters is relatively small with one month left to go in the campaign for governor. That is the major conclusion of a statewide poll of likely voters released today by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

The poll was conducted September 24-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point for the entire sample. The poll covered a sample of 1,001 registered voters. The election analysis presented here is based on 715 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.7 percentage points.

When asked, “If the election were held today…who would you vote for?” Forty-nine percent chose Pritzker; 27 percent chose Rauner with 4 percent who selected the conservative Sam McCann and 4 percent who selected Libertarian Kash Jackson. The remaining 17 percent were undecided.

Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

In the other high-profile statewide race for a constitutional office, Attorney General, State Senator Kwame Raoul held a 36 percent to 26 percent lead over Champaign attorney Erika Harold with 39 percent undecided. Raoul led in Chicago by 50 percent to 23 percent with 26 percent undecided. He also led in the Collar Counties by 41 percent to 25 percent with 34 percent undecided; Harold led downstate by 27 percent to 19 percent with 53 percent undecided.

“There is an unusually large percentage of undecided voters in this race perhaps reflecting the low level of attention it has received compared to the high-profile governor’s race”, said Institute Director John Shaw. “This indicates that this race is still very much dependent on the late deciders.”

The voters were also asked “Are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic? The results showed that the Democrats are 19 percent more enthusiastic than the Republicans. Seventy percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic while 51 percent of Republicans said they are more enthusiastic about going to vote in the November elections. Independents trailed with 50 percent saying they were more enthusiastic and 26 percent saying they were less enthusiastic about voting this year.

Conservative voters chose more enthusiastic compared to less enthusiastic by 61 percent to 24 percent while liberal voters chose more enthusiastic by 73 percent to 14 percent.

“Illinois Democrats are displaying greater enthusiasm about this midterm election than are Republicans or Independents. The so-called “enthusiasm gap” is comparable to what we have been seeing across the country for some time” said Simon Institute Visiting Professor Charlie Leonard. “If it holds up and is reflected in comparable turnout numbers, it will be a major advantage for the Democrats.

Summarizing these results, John Jackson, one of the directors of the poll said, “While the Democrats clearly have an advantage in both of these high-profile races at this point, November 6th is still one month away. The campaigns and the candidates’ closing arguments and get out the vote efforts can still make a significant difference by then. [Emphasis added.]

A sitting governor polling at 27 percent in late September.

Twenty-seven. Unheard of.

More info is here.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:22 pm

Comments

I wonder how the “scheme” will affect this. I doubt much, especially since the inspector is hanging a lot on their interpretation of the affidavit. And frankly, if they are anything like me people will vote more for “Not-Rauner” than vote for JB.

Comment by Perrid Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:25 pm
He’s at the Keyes line! 27 percent!

I mean he’ll beat that in the end, but that’s not good.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:28 pm
Rauner failed.

Barely one in 4… are voting Rsuner.

I’m old enough to remember 2 in 5 union households vote Rauner.

Now Rauner sits at 27.

More important… for me…

Pritzker at 49… with a 22 point lead.

That’s 49, in a blue state, in a red POTUS midterm… and Rauner as a failure, polling a meager 27%.

Wow… Rauner is so unlikable

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:32 pm
===McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters===

Exactly where McCann needs to be.

Looking good.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:33 pm
Registered voters? Come on people.
35 days out from Election Day and early voting has already started in parts of the state including Chicago.

Don’t get me wrong, I want to like the numbers.

Comment by Anonish Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:33 pm
Rauner at 22% in Chicago would actually be an improvement over 2014.

Comment by Grand Avenue Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:33 pm
==Registered voters? Come on people.==

A lot of pollsters are having trouble modeling the electorate this year- it’s a midterm, but Dems seem energized, but maybe Kavanaugh is waking the Republicans up, but…

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:36 pm
===Rauner at 22% in Chicago would actually be an improvement over 2014.===

While very true… statistically tied downstate is an abysmal failure.

Rauner is not a Republican. Rauner should do better in Chicago, not being a Republican.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:37 pm
==Twenty-seven. Unheard of.==

So unheard of, in fact, that I remain a little suspicious of it, even though that number is pretty consistent across polls. An incumbent Governor hasn’t lost re-election since 1972. An incumbent Governor hasn’t lost re-election by more than 10 points since 1960. It’s really rare.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:39 pm
Does this create problems for democrats down ticket. With the big race presumably in the bag, do folks stay home?

Trumpers are voting and voting republican. Regionally this could create a big problem if the polls tell democrats turnout won’t matter we win anyway.

Comment by the Patriot Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:40 pm
Rahm decided running for re-elect was too much.

Wonder if Rauner thinks that now.

Barely one in 4 are choosing Rauner.

It’s not like one in 3, or knocking on the door to 40%… we’re looking at a governor so unlikable, with no constituency, where can Rauner find enough voters to avoid uttter embarrassment?

As a white male, Bruce Rauner has to be missing the Superstars.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:42 pm
In 14 the poling for the Gov race was margin of error the entire time. Rauner pulled it out but he was always within in the MOE. I don’t think this will be the same.
Still a lot of time until November 6.
Another bad poll today. Folks aren’t listening to this race anymore.

Comment by DuPage Bard Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:43 pm
===With the big race presumably in the bag, do folks stay home? ===

The main voting motivation as far as I can tell at the moment is the national scene.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:46 pm
I coach for a spring sport in central illinois. We travel all over illinois for contests. Not seen one Rauner sign that I can remember. He is toast. A lot of McCann signs. Or more than I expected.

Comment by Sparky791 Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:46 pm
===Not seen one Rauner sign===

Signs don’t vote. And, by the way, I’ve seen plenty of BVR signs.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:46 pm
At least here in Jackson/Williamson, the core Democratic infrastructure is all but ignoring the gov race to concentrate on Brendan Kelly. The fact that Rauner has seemed like a dead man walking for so long I think meant that the year’s energy never really got connected to that race.

Comment by LXB Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:47 pm
===It’s really rare.===

Well, Bruce is a rare guy. /s

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:48 pm
The Governor is Toast. We will see in the next 6 weeks if he leaves with dignity, or as much collateral damage as possible.

Comment by Retired Educator Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:48 pm
Agree with Rich, Rauner signs far outweigh JB and in Springfield area I have not seen one Sam sign. I’m sure they are around, just sayin.

This race is not going to be anywhere near a 22 point blowout.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:50 pm
Kash Jackson is as close to Rauner, as Rauner is to Pritzker. Let that sink in.

Comment by Saluki Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:52 pm
Where can Rauner find enough voters to avoid uttter embarrassment?

I for one am hoping for utter embarrassment. When a person is as cocksure as our Governor, it takes a pretty strong message to get through to them. I, however, hold no false delusions that Rauner would accept any personal blame in his failure, even then. His ego will require a narrative that paints him as the tireless crusader for good, and the voters as hopelessly unable to understand the wisdom of the plan he tried to enforce.

Comment by Ole' Nelson Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:52 pm
@ retired…
My money is on the latter.

Comment by Former Hillrod Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:53 pm
–A sitting governor polling at 27 percent in late September.–

That’s what you get for being too courageous all the time.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:53 pm
I’m Republican and not voting for Rauner. Why? I heard stories that meetings wouldn’t start until his wife arrived, even if the Governor was already there. This makes my head explode. Not a fan of Diana Rauner’s very liberal politics. In fact, every time I see her in a Rauner ad, it solidifies my vote for McCann.

Comment by BHW Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:53 pm
One out of three Republicans don’t support him and he is statistically tied downstate? Yikes.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:54 pm
This poll illustrates why JB could take the hit of IG report. Toni Preckwinkle support of Berrios could impact her run for Mayor of course. Berrios and his cozy relationship with property tax attorneys might stick on her if the County wasn’t “defrauded” by scheme mastermind Mrs. Pritzker…LOL!

Comment by qualified someone nobody sent Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:54 pm
Arch, I remember the lone Alan Keyes sign I saw in 04 like it was yesterday. It was like seeing a unicorn.

Oh the dreams we’d give life if Rauner didn’t hit the Keyes margin.

Comment by lakeside Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:55 pm
Pritzker did well downstate in the primary. Downstate should be fertile ground, based on Rauner’s unprecedented damage to higher ed and social services. The Pritzker camp should really press that.

This poll seems so unrealistic based on the humongous lead, but aggregating polls still shows a massive lead.

“Twenty-seven. Unheard of.”

Be consumed by hatred of Madigan, get miserable approval numbers and enter Madigan unpopularity territory. That’s very ironic but not surprising.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 1:58 pm
==Well, Bruce is a rare guy. /s==

He is the .01%…

Not saying he’s gonna win, necessarily, tho I still see the path. Just saying a 22 point win for JB would be practically unprecedented, and we should treat it as such.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:00 pm
We are at Peak Pugsley.
After today, he’ll start sliding.
He won’t slide 22 points, but he’s crashing to Earth.

Lex Luther is at rock bottom with nowhere to go but up.

Pugsley = 50
Lex Luther = 29
McCann’t = 20
JackWho = 1

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:01 pm
“Lex Luther is at rock bottom with nowhere to go but up.”

Get back to me after Pritzker’s Quincy and Sterigenics ads go wall-to-wall.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:09 pm
And the burrowing down of rauner staff started months ago. His staff supported anti-union measures now his staff is wrapping itself in union-protected roles.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:09 pm
Third place finish for Rauner. Going to be a fun night.

Comment by Trapped in the 'burbs Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:12 pm
“or as much collateral damage as possible.” Well, considering AFSCME was supposed to have been made whole as of yesterday (Roberta Lynch sent out an email about that this morning), that’s a pretty darned good bet.

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:15 pm
–Arch, I remember the lone Alan Keyes sign I saw in 04 like it was yesterday. It was like seeing a unicorn.

LOL–you must have been in the Chicago area. They certainly weren’t common, but you’d run into them from time to time downstate.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:18 pm
===With the big race presumably in the bag, do folks stay home?===

It’s never in the bag until it’s actually in the bag. Though unlikely, this election is still Pritzker’s to lose.

Comment by Nick Name Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:20 pm
JB’s #’s may plunge a little with the rebranding of an old scandal, but his lead is so flush I believe he’ll still be afloat at the end.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:21 pm
—JB’s #’s may plunge a little with the rebranding of an old scandal

If anything, his numbers will go up slightly—he’s below the generic Dem numbers. He’ll also hit Rauner on Quincy and Sterigenics.

All that said, I’d expect Rauner to hit in the mid-30s. McCann will give social conservatives/Trumpers somewhere to go out of anger.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:23 pm
==Get back to me after Pritzker’s Quincy and Sterigenics ads go wall-to-wall.==

OK, but I’m a little surprised they haven’t started by now.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:24 pm
“Erika Harold is a rock star and I’m qualified to tell you this because so am I”- Bruce Rauner

Comment by wakeup Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:33 pm
Apparently the elusive independent suburban woman vote couldn’t be reached.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:34 pm
Wait, have the pollsters talked to LP yet?

That could change the numbers./s

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:34 pm
Kudos to the Simon Institute for shortening the timespan the poll is in the field.

Rauner below 30 is absolutely mind boggling, and yet Pritzker still can’t seem to break the 50 ceiling?

Comment by Dirty Red Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:34 pm
Don’t think of it as a vote for Bruce/Sam/Kash as much as a non-vote for JB.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:36 pm
Diana Rauner’s rebranding of Bruce is up there with “New Coke”

Diana’s BTIA(tm) is looking more and more as a large mitigating factor… and signing HB40… and giving Bruce no constituency…

Maybe Diana Rauner is a Democrat after all?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:39 pm
– An incumbent Governor hasn’t lost re-election since 1972.–

Quinn, 2014.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:42 pm
==Get back to me after Pritzker’s Quincy and Sterigenics ads go wall-to-wall.==

==OK, but I’m a little surprised they haven’t started by now.==

If I’m JB, I want this information as fresh in people’s minds as possible when they head to the polls. Six weeks out is too far IMO. I’d run it two-three weeks out on a continuous loop.

Comment by Cubs in '16 Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:44 pm
Seems to me his PR campaign is limited to schmoozing & slapping backs at Obed & Isaac’s and the State Fair Farmers’ Market, costume changes and using his pocket change to become a weekend “biker”.

Too little, too late.

Besides, it was a matter of time before those folks figure out that what he’s doing in his official capacity is toxic to their well-being.

Comment by Stumpy's bunker Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:46 pm
–you must have been in the Chicago area. They certainly weren’t common, but you’d run into them from time to time downstate.–

Oh yes. It was the 2800 block of N. Damen to be specific. West side of the street. Here, let me get out google maps…..

Comment by lakeside Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:55 pm
There’s nothing for Rauner to hang his hat on here. He absolutely needs to win the collars and he’s down 30 there. He’s not even winning downstate. Even a decent showing in Chicago can’t save him from that. He’s losing among nearly every demographic, usually quite badly even with GOP-leaning groups. Any thoughts that these polls will depress Democratic turnout are pure fantasy as long as Donald Trump is in the White House.

The soundbites from the recent toilet story are certainly bad for Pritzker, but that’s a huge margin to make up with what’s ultimately an old story.

Comment by Nacho Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:03 pm
“Get back to me after Pritzker’s Quincy and Sterigenics ads go wall-to-wall.”

THIS

Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:36 pm
Dear Rauner Campaign,

When I ask, “What’s your plan to get to 20?” I am referring to within the City of Chicago - not statewide. My apologies for the confusion.

- DR

Comment by Dirty Red Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:39 pm
53% undecided downstate in the AG’s race … which candidate will go after and win that huge block?

Comment by west wing Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:47 pm
I think this poll is off. Don’t get me wrong, JB is going to win and it will be double digits but he won’t beat him by 20% IMO. Seriously by any historical standard this guy is really unpopular.
I think Bruce needs to break out that old van though. It will come in handy when he moves out in January.

Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:53 pm
With Harold closing in, I hope Kwame doesn’t lose his Kool.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 4:05 pm
Thanks, Word. I thought for a hot second that I had fallen into an alternative timeline (not that there might not be an upside…)

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 5:17 pm
Drop a few g’s when you talk & wear plaid shirts and everybody forgets that Rauner’s a billionaire from Wilmette.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 5:29 pm
Really? 27%? I don’t think Gov. C. Montgomery Burns has hit bottom yet- though it’s close.

Comment by West Sider Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 6:20 pm
Rauner’s crew lookin for protection in hnion positions. Funny thing, I thought no one needed unions anymore.

Comment by Generic Drone Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 8:12 pm