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Simon Poll: 34 percent would consider voting for a candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people

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* Press release with emphasis added and in the original…

According to recent polling by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, Illinoisans believe that there is a better understanding of sexual harassment (51 percent) and that those accused of sexual harassment are more likely to be held accountable (59 percent). Yet, there are significant partisan differences in these views and 34 percent of the 1,001 respondents sampled for the poll say that they would still consider voting for a candidate accused of sexual harassment. […]

The issue has resurfaced at the national level with the hearings for the Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. The Kavanaugh hearings began Thursday, September 27th, addressing allegations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh. The poll was in the field during the week of the hearing, making it especially timely to look at this national issue.

Fifty-one percent of voters surveyed agreed that people have a better understanding of sexual harassment given recent allegations of harassment in the news; 41 percent said no, there is not a better understanding. One in 14 voters, 7 percent, did not know or declined to answer.

Democrats Believe People Have Better Understanding of Sexual Harassment. Higher proportions of Democrats (59 percent) and Independents (48 percent) said that people have a better understanding of sexual harassment. Republicans were least likely to agree that people have a better understanding of sexual harassment at 41 percent.

Among political parties, Republicans were most likely to believe that people do not have a better understanding of sexual harassment given the recent allegations in the news these days – 52 percent. Nearly half, 45 percent, of the Independents said that people do not have a better understanding of sexual harassment. Democrats followed the Independents with 35 percent believing people do not have a better understanding.

Despite significant differences emerging by political party, there were no difference across region or gender. […]

When asked if people were more likely to be held accountable now for sexual harassment than they were before, 86 percent of voters said that people were more likely or just as likely. One in 12, 8 percent, did not know or declined to answer. Six percent volunteered that individuals are less likely to be held accountable for sexual harassment than they were before.

There were no major differences across party, region, or gender.

Overall, 34 percent of respondents said that they would consider voting for a candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people, while 38 percent said that they definitely would not. Significant differences emerged across region, gender, and political party.

Downstate Voters More Likely to Consider Voting for Accused Candidates. Voters in the downstate regions of Illinois, 41 percent, were most inclined to say that they would consider voting for a candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people. This was followed by 33 percent of voters in the city of Chicago and 31 percent of voters in the Chicago suburbs. A similar pattern emerged where 18 percent of respondents in the downstate regions of Illinois said that they would strongly consider voting for a political candidate with multiple allegations of sexual harassment. This compared to only 10 percent of voters in the city of Chicago and 9 percent of voters in the Chicago suburbs.

Voters in the city of Chicago, 43 percent, were the most likely to believe that they would definitely not vote for a candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people. Voters in the Chicago suburbs responded similarly at 41 percent. Downstate voters, at 30 percent, were the least likely to say that they would definitely not vote for a candidate facing multiple sexual harassment allegations.

Republicans More Likely to Consider Voting for Accused Candidates. Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, Republicans were most likely, at 60 percent, to say that they would consider voting for a political candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people if they agreed with the candidate on the issues.

Thirty percent of Independents said that they would consider voting for a political candidate who had been accused of sexual harassment by multiple people, followed by 21 percent of Democrats.

Republicans were most likely to say that they would strongly consider voting for a political candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people at 24 percent. This was followed by only 5 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Independents.

Lastly, over half of the Democrats (51 percent) said that they definitely would not vote for a candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people regardless of if they agreed with the candidate on the issues at. This was followed by 38 percent of Independents, and only 16 percent of Republicans.

Men More Likely to Consider Voting for Accused Candidates. Forty percent of men said that they would consider voting for a candidate that multiple people accused of sexual harassment. This is compared to 28 percent of women. Men were also more likely to say that they would strongly consider voting for an accused candidate.

According to the crosstabs, 15 percent of men, 9 percent of women, 24 percent of conservatives, 12 percent of whites, 7 percent of African-Americans, 13 percent of those making under $50K and 14 percent of union members said they would “strongly consider” voting for a political candidate accused of sexual harassment by multiple people if they agreed with the candidate on the issues.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 1:19 pm

Comments

Meanwhile, skillicorn tweets a meme comparing kavanaugh to Jesus…https://twitter.com/allenskillicorn/status/1048218294581448704

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 1:21 pm
OK. So that means a candidate so accused would get crushed by about two to one at the ballot box. I can live with that. I wish it was ten to one, but hey, this is where we’re at.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 1:24 pm
I’ll vote for Jerry Long.

Comment by Lasalle County Viter Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 1:31 pm
Depends on the accusations and their credibility. Son of a college team mate was falsely accused in the Duke rape case. That colors my thinking.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 1:39 pm
Context matters. Does “consider” simply mean the voter is willing to look at context before writing off a candidate? Also, is “accused…by multiple people” intended to be a proxy for “guilty” without actually using the term?

While some of the respondents may accept that equation, plenty would not. And, if a respondent rejects that equation, then to “consider” the candidate in context to actual accusations is pretty rational. Indeed, one may “consider” and decide there is a problem–which is what a good number of Republicans did in Alabama.

Based on that, I’m not really sure this poll illuminates much. Sure, a downstater could look at this and call Chicago more self-righteous and close-minded, or a Chicagoan could look at this and say a downstater is more boorish. But all I see is a weird, flawed poll trying to capture a moment, but not quite getting it right.

Comment by Liandro Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 2:10 pm
I think the key distinction is “multiple people”. I suppose there can always be a he said/she said dispute. But when it becomes he said/they said it’s much harder to refute.

Comment by Pundent Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 2:23 pm
Horrifying that the number is so low.

Accused =\= convicted.

This is the new McCarthyism, where an accusation is proof of guilt.

Comment by Phil King Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 2:37 pm
“This is the new McCarthyism, where an accusation is proof of guilt.”

What part of the phrase “multiple people” did you find confusing?

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 2:59 pm
That’s about the percentage that voted for Trump. Sound right to me.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 3:00 pm
Regardless of the crosstabs, the reality is that such an accused candidate will get a much higher percentage of the vote - otherwise there would be a different #45.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 5, 18 @ 3:02 pm