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* More from the Belleville News-Democrat…
Despite being down in the polls, including a poll showing Pritzker leading 49 percent to 27 percent, Rauner remained confident, at least publicly.
“Those polls are absolutely wrong. Those are by registered voters. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a lot,” Rauner said. “When you look at who’s actually going to vote, we’re very close.”
Um, the last Reuters/Ipsos poll was of 968 likely voters. It had Pritzker ahead by 20 points.
The Simon Poll surveyed 715 likely voters and it had Pritzker ahead by 22 points.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:04 pm
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“Don’t believe the polls,” said every losing candidate ever.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:05 pm
“The polls only look bad because the other guy has a lot more supporters than I do.”
“Touché.”
Comment by LXB Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:08 pm
@47th Ward, I agree, but at the same time Donald Trump had “no path to victory” right up until Election day.
That being said, the odds that all the polls have got it wrong are not in Rauner’s favor.
Comment by Perrid Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:11 pm
This is a sad commentary of a man who believes he can save the world, but the world thought about it, and decided to take a pass.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:11 pm
Rauner is one step away from full blown Trump:
“I’m afraid the election’s going to be rigged. I have to be honest,” August 1, 2016
Comment by don the legend Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:12 pm
===…but at the same time Donald Trump had “no path to victory” right up until Election day.===
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan won’t be helping Bruce Rauner.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:12 pm
===“no path to victory” right up until Election day===
There were no polls showing him leading by an 18.2 percent average nationwide.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:13 pm
The world still needs him, it just doesn’t know it. That’s why the messaging needs to improve. /s
Comment by Cubs in '16 Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:14 pm
“we’re very close.”
I suppose in terms of astronomical distances 1.4% is probably correct.
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:16 pm
Given the past 4 years, why would anyone expect the Guv NOT to lie to us?
Fish gotta swim birds gotta fly.
Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:16 pm
“It’s not a lie, if you believe it.” George Costanza
Comment by Trapped in the 'burbs Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:17 pm
@Perrid:
https://www.rollcall.com/news/rothenblog/six-things-losing-candidates-say
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:17 pm
Well, just the “other day” - Norseman- told me we’re “really close” to Pritzker too.
Now, I’ll grant you - Norseman - doesn’t have polling to refute his statement, like Rauner does…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:19 pm
All in all, its going to be an up day.
Comment by Rod Blagojevich Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:20 pm
47th
Could #7 be:
This is the most important election of my life.
Comment by Ole' Nelson Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:20 pm
– but at the same time Donald Trump had “no path to victory” right up until Election day.–
That was wishful thinking by some prognosticators, but it was not supported by an objective reading of battleground state polls.
On election day, Nate Silver’s 538 have Trump a 30% chance of winning the electoral college. That is a far cry from “no path to victory.”
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:22 pm
Rich, it’s a rare politician who will admit defeat before election day. why do you and your equally unrealistic Rauner commentators keep suggesting that Rauner should? The election will come soon enough — be patient.
Comment by jim Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:22 pm
Punt on first down, much better strategy
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:23 pm
===who will admit defeat===
He shouldn’t. He also shouldn’t just flat-out lie.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:25 pm
===He also shouldn’t just flat-out lie.===
You expect him to stay silent for the next three weeks?
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:27 pm
===He also shouldn’t just flat-out lie.===
That’s where I ask “Lucky Pierre”
===Punt on first down, much better strategy===
I agree, play out the game.
“LP”, do you think Rauner is trailing Pritzker?
It’s a yes or no, thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:27 pm
Rauner’s fantasy logic, ===“Democrats outnumber Republicans by a lot, ….when you look at who’s actually going to vote, we’re very close”.===. So more Republicans are going to vote and vote for Rauner than Democrats are going to vote for Pritzger in a blue wave Illinois mid-term, got it.
Comment by XDNR Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:32 pm
I can’t wait for the election night speech. Or post election interview ( provided he can be found). It will be everyone else’s fault. Maybe he will even throw Mrs R under the bus. Sad, I feel sorry for Jim Durkin & Bill Brady.
Comment by Wow Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:32 pm
What’s he supposed to say? Something to deflate his base further?
Comment by Shemp Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:33 pm
It will be interesting to see when he stops throwing good money after bad.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:33 pm
LP hasn’t said boo about Quincy, why would you expect it on this? Plenty to say about toilets though.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:35 pm
That being said, the odds that all the polls have got it wrong are not in Rauner’s favor.
-Unfortunately, there is no electoral college in Illinois to save Rauner whereas it saved Trump… Because looking at the popular vote Trump lost that. And I’m not sure you can compare national polling to state polling since again there is no electoral college in Illinois.
Comment by Real Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:35 pm
“And what about all the candidates I’m *not* trailing by twenty points? Huh? How come you never talk about *them*?? No. Wait… Please don’t talk about them…”
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:36 pm
“Punt on first down, much better strategy”
Telling the refs the game is tied when your team is actually down by three touchdowns in the forth quarter?
Bestest strategy.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:43 pm
Meant to quote this
no path to victory” right up until Election day.
-Unfortunately, there is no electoral college in Illinois to save Rauner whereas it saved Trump… Because looking at the popular vote Trump lost that. And I’m not sure you can compare national polling to state polling since again there is no electoral college in Illinois.
Comment by Real Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:44 pm
OW, I’m sure your numbers are surging, given the antics of these other yahoos.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:46 pm
Maybe he’s trying to avoid the inevitable landslide if his disgruntled supporters decide to sit this one out.
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:47 pm
Does the fact that Brucie isn’t putting any more of his own $$ into the campaign tell us his real prognostication?
Comment by d.p.gumby Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:49 pm
OW, we’re close. I can feel it in my bones. Rob Silver’s 539, which specializes in write-in polling says it’s a horse race.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:51 pm
-What’s he supposed to say? Something to deflate his base further?-
That doesn’t mean us Pritzker supporters can’t make fun of him.
Comment by Illinois Resident Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:54 pm
- AA -, your support has been instrumental.
- Norseman -,
Whew, I was worried. You have things well in hand.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:54 pm
===What’s he supposed to say?===
Lying on easily checkable things like this is never the right thing to say.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:56 pm
So even Nate Silver (who warned about a possible Trump upset) is calling it for Pritzker:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/illinois/
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:56 pm
I can’t wait until Nov 7 when the Governor admits that he hasn’t been successful at everything he’s ever done.
Comment by Stones Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:57 pm
===calling it for Pritzker===
No he’s not.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 4:57 pm
Notice how Gov Rauner has tried to make term limits an issue?
His term will be limited. After 4 years. Term limits done the correct way. Voted out, not by some artificial construct.
Comment by low level Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:03 pm
This just shows the type of people Raymer surrounds himself with. They don’t live in reality.
Comment by The Dude Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:06 pm
“He also shouldn’t just flat-out lie.”
At this point, why would anybody suddenly expect 1.4% to tell the truth?
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:12 pm
=punt on first down=
Except for the fact that this is the ninth inning, there are two outs, and your down five runs with nobody on.
LP, you and your guy aren’t even playing the right game.
With regard to Trump’s “non oath to victory” that is all swell. But the pollsters got Illinois right. Illinois went big for HRC exactly as predicted.
What else do you have?
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:28 pm
“He also shouldn’t just flat-out lie.”
1.4%’s term in office has been marked by his lying about easily verified facts and events. It started on election night when 1.4% claimed that he spoke to the Speaker and President.
The expectation that 1.4% is capable of or willing to tell the truth is misguided. He has a tendency to utter remarks, regardless of the truth, that he perceives as favorably to his administration and himself.
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:32 pm
===When you look at who’s actually going to vote, we’re very close.”===
I have spent a ton of money to dirty up pritzker w madigan, blago, race, toilets—his supporters bekieve my ads and will stay home like crazy, or vote for me. I also did a number on
mcann—his supporters will stay home, or vote for me. I am your last chance to save us all. You have no choice but to vote for me. Tahts my path to victory.
Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:37 pm
“Tahts my path to victory.”
Primrose lane?
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:42 pm
I can find polls of registered voters. I can find polls of likely voters. Where can I find the poll of “who’s actually going to vote” that Rauner wants me to look at?
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 5:56 pm
This headline is everyone’s plea.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 6:32 pm
either
1) he really believes what he says
or
2) he’s thinks the rubes will buy it
There is nothing to indicate he will reform his honesty till the moment he has to go away.
Trump would love to have this guy at the podium for him.
Comment by Stumpy's bunker Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 6:46 pm
I know there will be much euphoria over the Pritzker victory. Me. I don’t get it. Why be in such a rush to be the governor who gets to raise income tax to 6%. To be the governor who tries to establish the middle class. To be the governor who cuts spending by $1 billion. To be the governor who has to draw new congressional districts when it looks like we will lose two seats. To be the governor who has to tell southern Illinois that they have to replace two brand new coal fired power plants with lean energy. To be the governor that SIUE gets 1/2 the money.
I don’t get it. If your worth $3 billion , why.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 7:48 pm
@Blue Dog
Any euphoria over Pritzker is because of Bruce Rauner. If you are worth $3 billion, why? Bruce Rauner, that’s why. And because money=speech according to the Supreme Court. So only the ultra-wealthy will hold positions of extreme power because they can buy it. If you’re worth $3 billion, why not?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 8:43 pm
-who gets to raise income tax to 6%-
Are you just making this tax rate up? Whatever the income tax rates turn out to be, they will be progressive, not regressive like the flat tax. Rauner who made $53 million in 2017 should not pay a flat tax that someone who made $30,000 also pays.We will have a chance for lower real estate taxes as well which is regressive.
Comment by Illinois Resident Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 9:28 pm
==I can’t wait for the election night speech.==
Will he be delivering it from a villa in Italy?/s
Comment by G'Kar Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 9:50 pm
–I don’t get it.–
Yeah, that should be your t-shirt
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 17, 18 @ 1:11 pm