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Question of the day

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Illinois

* Your final predictions?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:05 pm

Comments

Dems sweep statewide offices.

Roskam and Hultgren go down. Dems win the House in DC but lose a seat or two in the Senate.

Comment by slow down Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:08 pm
If vote turnout reported by Chicago also includes Early and Absentee, then the overall turnout will be 43-45%, not good for Dems in Suburbs. JB only wins by 12%, not 20% as predicted.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:10 pm
Pritzker wins.
Raoul wins.
Hammond re-elected.
Davis re-elected.

Comment by btowntruth from forgottonia Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:10 pm
JB +15
Kwame +6
SDems end up with 40 seats
HDems end up with 72 seats
Roskam, Hultgren and Davis lose

Comment by Juice Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:11 pm
Those crowds are huge at the trump rallies. Red wave going to sneak up on the country. Illinois sort of on its own.

Comment by 44th Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:12 pm
Harold defeats Raoul in a semi-upset.

Comment by Cubs in '16 Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:13 pm
Pritzker wins by 10%
Dems carry rest of Statewide offices
Hultgren/Roskam lose
David/Bost are close but win

Comment by Buford Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:14 pm
Dems sweep, though Raoul is closer than comfortable.
Underwood wins.
Roskam wins.
Bost wins.
Rodney Davis wins.
Dems take the US House - barely.
Mendoza finds a way the claim victory and declare her candidacy for Chicago mayor in one sentence.

Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:14 pm
JB wins by 14 points
Kwame by 6

House Dems net 4 seats
Senate Dems 2

Casten wins
Hultgren barely survives

Dems take US House
GOP holds US Senate

Comment by Roman Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:15 pm
I say no real big blue wave. The trend is on the Dem side but not a 1994 version.

But here it is (Illinois Centric):

-JB wins
-Harold wins
-D’s take all other statewide
-Madigan picks up Net 2
(Long, Breen, Morrison, Phelps lose)
-Cullerton loses 1 (Haine)
-Roskam wins (declared next week)
-Hultgren & Davis win

If the big blue wave materializes then the Republican party becomes the Proft party as Brandy & Durkin shuts off the lights.

Comment by Nagidam Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:16 pm
The Conservative Party gets “party” 5% plus status. Kelly and Londrigan edge out Bost and Davis.

Comment by Al Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:17 pm
A lot of crying and then the blame game starts.

Comment by Retired Educator Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:17 pm
Raoul wins by 7.
J.B. wins by 18.
McCann gets over 5 percent.
Roskam, Hultgren and Davis lose.
Hammond wins, but just barely.
Bost wins by 5.

Comment by Can Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:19 pm
Only three Republican seats left in the Illinois congressional delegation. Kwame only statewide race less than double digits.
Harold runs for congress in 2020 against Betsy.

Comment by Almost the weekend Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:20 pm
Blackhawks will miss the playoffs and go 25-45-13

Comment by Visual Manager Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:21 pm
Dems sweep statewides.
Roskam and Hultgren both lose.
Madigan gains 7 seats.
Cullerton gains 3 seats.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:21 pm
JB around 58, Rauner 35, McCann 5, etc
Raoul 55 Harold 45ish
Davis, Hultgren, and Roskam go down, but Bost does relatively well

Go with Juice on the final results in the Lege

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:21 pm
Rauner in an upset.

Comment by allknowingmasterofraccoodom Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:22 pm
I’m going to lose the last remnants of my mind.

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:25 pm
==A lot of crying and then the blame game starts.==

Agree, but seems like the crying and blaming have already started, preceded by a healthy dose of wishful thinking about crowd size, turnout, messaging, on and on.

But: State constitutional offices to Dems (AG race tight, look here for any upset); in my state House district, Hammond re-elected by slender margin; nationally the Dems have small House majority, Reps pick up two in Senate, Dems win back about seven governorships.

Comment by Flapdoodle Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:26 pm
Dems sweep statewide offices
AG race will be within 5%
JB wins by 12%.
McCann gets over 5%
Davis and Bost both win in close races.

Comment by Get it Solved Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:27 pm
Senate 59th (R)Fowler by 20
115 Bryant(R) by 30
117 Woolard (D) by 8
118 Phelps Finnie(D)by 2
Bost over Kelly by 2

Comment by Exit 59 Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:27 pm
Roskam loses.
Hultgen holds on.
JB wins by less than 10%
Dem’s take all statewide except AG. Harold wins by less that a point.
The sun rises tomorrow and Illinois is still in financial ruin.
White Sox fail to make playoffs in 2019.

Comment by Flat Bed Ford Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:30 pm
Also, I think Danny Davis might just squeak out a victory.

Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:31 pm
Ives claims that if Rauner were a real conservative he would have won.

Comment by Just Me Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:32 pm
I earlier predicted JB by 7, think he wins by 5.

Hultgren, Bost, Davis, Roskam R’s 3-1

Erica pulls out the victory.

GOP holds the Senate and I think they barely hold the House–barely.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:32 pm
Saline County Clerk is indicted.

Comment by siualum Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:32 pm
Jesse White will win re-election with a margin of one million votes.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:33 pm
Pritzker 51
Rauner 39
Other 9

Kwame in a squeaker with 52%

Hultgren, Roskam, and Davis lose.

Bost survives with 51%

Madigan nets 3
Cullerton nets 2

Comment by SW IL Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:33 pm
Dem rout nationally: House 45+ seats flip

Comment by Molly Maguire Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:33 pm
The nazi guy won’t win

Comment by Jose Abreu's next homer Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:35 pm
Pain. And then 4 years of working harder than I should have to for the same amount of pay.

Comment by Some Anonymous Dude (S.A.D.) Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:36 pm
Pritzker by double digits.
Raoul by 7
All statewides go blue
GA is Veto-Proof… in both chambers, Blue… with cushions
Roskam loses.
Hultgren barely hangs on.
Rodney gets a scare.

- Norseman - says I’m neck and neck, so I hope to have to wait longer to concede than the others.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:36 pm
Curtis beats Hammond

Comment by Stagman Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:36 pm
Dem sweep with the exception of AG

Comment by Mr Powell’s Shoebox Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:37 pm
Joe Quenneville receives numerous sympathy write-in votes, but fails to match those perennial favorites Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck.

Comment by Practical Politics Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:37 pm
For various reasons, a literal Illinois Nazi is going to pick up 15%-20% of the vote for a US Congress seat in 2018

Comment by Sox Fan Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:38 pm
Rauner blames Madigan for his loss.

Comment by Angry Republican Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:40 pm
The sun will come up tomorrow.

Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:43 pm
I predict imma be drunk later on tonight.

Comment by LoyalVirus Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:43 pm
Adding that the Proft/Rauner effect on the GOP will be full realized as they lose 2 out of 3 of the seats vacated by Andersson, Fortner and Harris.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:47 pm
I think J.B. and Kwame are only a couple of points off from each other. The difference will be Rauner will be in the low 40’s while Harold gets more.
J.B. 54% Rauner 40% McCann and others 6%
Kwame 52% Harold 46% other 4%

Comment by Been There Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:47 pm
Pritzker wins by a lot, more than 10. I revise my earlier prediction. Does anyone remember in 2014 We Ask America had a turnout model online? You could revise the turnout for the different regions in the state and see the results for the election based on historic voting patterns. Basically, any time you turned the Chicago turnout over like 52%-54% it became really hard for the Republicans to win anything statewide. That’s gonna happen in spades tonight.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:49 pm
Nothing changes, nothing ever changes.

Comment by Bruce (no not him) Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:51 pm
I like Susanna Mendoza. She is a great at her job but unfortunately she will run for Mayor. At least she will win but we will lose because her successor whoever that may be will not be as good.

Peter Roskam will win but it will be after a recount. JB wins by 22. Rauner goes mad on State workers until he is out for good. JB wins re-election in 2022 “bigley”.

Republicans pick up 5 seats in the US Senate. Republicans keep control of the US House by 2 seats.

Democrats win veto proof control of the Illinois General Assembly in both chambers but this will never be needed because JB with work closely with them and the State will be much better off four years from today.

Harold wins by 2. Jesse White gets 84% and is more popular then all other Illinois elected officials.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:54 pm
===Lucky Pierre’s resume gets a solid dusting.===

And new bot software to go full Fox news. Expect to hear more about the Caravan and how actually, Republicans had a great night.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:55 pm
Herold in a close one
Mendoza waits until Thursday to run her first ad for mayor
All of the WGN viewing community is happy to see the Tile Outlet spokesperson on TV again

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:56 pm
democrats will take control of the House and Senate, and Pritzker wins, Raoul wins, and the other statewide candidates win also. Democrats also win the governors mansions in Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Idaho, Wyoming, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Arizona, Nevada and Iowa. Also Democrats will pick up the Attorney General Offices in Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and etc.

Comment by The King Fish Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:57 pm
JB by 12
Kwame by 7
Other State wide Dems easily reelected.
Kelly and Londrigan by slim margins.
And Jason Plummer will become my State Senator. Willy and I will have some fun here.
I can’t understand why no one is making odds on the Shimkus race.

Comment by illini Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:59 pm
The political ads end and the holiday and bathroom remodelers pick up the slack.

Comment by Behind the Scenes Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:08 pm
I am no prognosticator, so I am simply going to predict that I will grade more than my share of poorly written papers tonight while watching the returns.

Comment by G'Kar Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:08 pm
Bruce does what mike Madigan had never been able to, makes Illinois all blue all over

Comment by Rutro Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:13 pm
Rauner loses, Illinois wins.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:13 pm
Dem’s sweep state level except AG where Harold squeaks it out. Rodney Davis hangs on to win by a fingernail.

Nationally, GOP hangs on to House by 1 or 2 seats, gains slightly in the Senate.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:14 pm
–All of the WGN viewing community is happy to see the Tile Outlet spokesperson on TV again–

And the Feldco windows man re-appears on TV, too.

Comment by Christopher Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:15 pm
Mendoza by a bunch. Jesse White by the same. That might be the only certainty.

Comment by 5-ohhhhh (ret) Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:17 pm
JB wins
I’m shocked that many of you think the avg voter is going to vote for JB then switch party and vote Harold. I don’t see enough people doing that for Harold to win.

Comment by Real Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:21 pm
Dems sweep statewide. Bost is the only competitive Republican to survive. Personally, I’d trade all three to get rid of Bost. Dems house nationally +36, Senate +1.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:37 pm
I predict I’ll be watching something on Amazon Prime this evening.

Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:42 pm
Dems sweep state races. JB by 9, the others by less.

Roskam wins by recount. Hultgren loses by 3.

Nationally, the team Red picks up 2 Senate seats.
Team blue picks up 40 House seats.

In case anyone doesn’t already know, https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/ has odds of all the races. Fascinating stuff there.

Comment by iThink Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:45 pm
===Jason Plummer will become my State Senator===

Hope there’s room for the Slurpee and pinball machines.

Jason won’t do much damage as a freshman. Thankfully

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:45 pm
JB wins by 15% - all other statewide Dems win too
Dems take House by 32 (including all four in IL) and Senate is even - with two contested races that won’t be decided until mid-December

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:48 pm
Rauner’s inbox fills up with Italian real estate spam.

Comment by JoanP Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:52 pm
Democrats sweep pretty much everything in Illinois. Pritzker wins by 12 and Raoul by 6.

Comment by Steve Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:57 pm
Illinois voters support the only term limits we’ll ever need. Buh bye, Bruce.

Democrat prevail in all statewide races, and pick up Congressional seats.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:02 pm
Pritzker by 12%
McCann gets 6% and dooms vulnerable R’s for the next two cycles
Kwame by 3%
All other Statewides to Dems by double digit margins

Bost survives, barely
Hultgren and Roskam fall
Davis edges out BDL in the overnight final tallying, despite the yutes coming out in droves

Total IL House = 71 Ds
Total IL Senate = 40 Ds
Total US House = 234 Ds
Total US Senate = 52 Rs

Trump will claim victory because “he saved” the Senate. Rauner will claim victory because “he saved” Illinois from four years of complete control by Madigan.

Comment by Chambananon Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:06 pm
== I’m shocked that many of you think the avg voter is going to vote for JB then switch party and vote Harold. ==

A lot of us vote for the person, not the party. My ballot had D, R, and marked on it. Obviously,the C was Sam because I couldn’t vote for JB or Bruce. At least I didn’t write in Mel O Creme like one person I know.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:08 pm
A lot of us vote for the person, not the party.

-Not enough voters vote that way. I too voted Green Party in the last presidential election bjt I voted dem down ballot. My green party candidate for President lost. I don’t see enough voters voting that way for Harold to win. I also think Raoul ran a campaign lacking in energy. His campaign was very dull but I think he wins.

Comment by Real Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:18 pm
Pritzker leads a Democratic sweep of statewide offices. Rauner claims to have called Madigan and Cullerton with congratulations.

Comment by Billinois Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:23 pm
JB wins big.

Erika Harold wins by 1%.

SGOP hold all their suburban seats AND pick up Haine’s seat.

Madigan’s caucus makes it to 70.

Mendoza runs her first ad on Sunday during the Bears-Lions game.

Comment by Ric Flair Woo Chop Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:37 pm
Saw a (presumably hopeful) post early in this thread speculating that if early voting/mail ballots are included in turnout numbers, the Dems’ expectations would not be met — but in Illinois, those ballots are not counted as part of election day turnout.

Comment by Flapdoodle Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:38 pm
Dems sweep statewide, though would not be surprised if Harold squeezes out the win. LP gets major party status due to pulling 5% in a down-the-ticket race. McCann adds to GOP pain coming in over 5%.

Comment by Downstate Libertarian Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:54 pm
===Erika Harold wins by 1%.===

I’ll eat my hat if Harold wins. I mean, I really don’t see it. 4 years of Rauner, 2 of Trump. Both horribly underwater in Illinois. I would say Illinois as a state is at about a D+14 at this point. I don’t see her overcoming it. I just don’t. Half that, maybe.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:56 pm
Dems take all statewide spots. Bost survives but Davis, Roskam and Hultgren all lose.

Rauner doesn’t give consolation speech but somebody else comes to the podium and says “Madigan” enough times until the room clears out.

Michigan becomes the first midwest state to legalize cannabis.

Turnout among young voters under 30 is the highest ever other than in 2008.

Comment by frisbee Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:12 pm
===I’ll eat my hat if Harold wins. I mean, I really don’t see it.

I don’t either. It’s a bad year for Rs in a state that is Democratic, she’s not outstanding in any way, and she doesn’t even have enough money to be up in Chicago.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:31 pm
== Rauner doesn’t give consolation speech ==

I just predicted to a friend that Rauner will call JB to concede right after cell calls and congratulates MJM.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:35 pm
Raoul is not exactly a dynamo either.

It will be MUCH closer than people on this site are predicting.

Comment by Ric Flair Woo Chop Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:35 pm
CommadoIves & Katrina new mid morning show on Proft-AM

Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:44 pm
Trump declares he won.

Comment by West Side the Best Side Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:44 pm
I’ve always voted for the person over the party. Most often with an R bent. This year is different. The Republican Party has lost its way and more importantly its moral compass. I might be an outlier but I felt the only way I could send a clear message was by voting straight D. It pained me to do so.

Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 7:32 pm