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No, that’s not what happened

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Illinois

* Some folks are still clinging to this narrative…

Democratic State Senator Kwame Raoul in the race of Illinois Attorney General Tuesday night. Republican challenger Erika Harold called him to concede the race about an hour and a half after the polls closed.

The two had been locked in a tight race, with polls narrowing in the days before the election.

You don’t go from being “locked in a tight race with polls narrowing in the days before the election” to an 11-point, 471-thousand-vote win on election day. C’mon. People got carried away with the rumors and now they’re standing by them. Buzz ain’t always what it appears to be.

I mean, not only did Raoul get more votes than JB Pritzker, he also won Harold’s home county of Champaign. Yes, she received 176,000 more votes than Gov. Rauner, but Sam McCann took 188,000 votes from Rauner. So there’s that.

* More…

Obliterating concerns from some Democrats that the race had tightened in the final days, Kwame Raoul cruised to an easy victory Tuesday over Republican Erika Harold to become Illinois’ first new attorney general in 16 years.

Top party officials reported that late polling showed Raoul with a much smaller lead over Harold than the double-digit advantages enjoyed by other statewide Democratic candidates, including governor front-runner J.B. Pritzker.

The most recent Democratic poll I was told about had Raoul winning by 9. He won by 11.

* More…

In a sign of how tight the race had become as Election Day neared, Raoul reported receiving a $1 million donation from House Speaker Michael Madigan’s campaign fund on Friday.

So, you’re saying that a million bucks received just a few days out took it from a “tight” race to a blowout?

* What happened here is that a few weeks ago or so, a Democratic tracking poll had Raoul trailing. But that’s a single one-day poll out of lots, and it’s a mathematically possible that it was an outlier. Scientific polls are accurate to a 95 percent confidence level, which means one in 20 are outliers. It happens.

The Republicans had some polling that showed Raoul with a smallish lead, so the buzz built over time. And, hey, you gotta have some drama, so just about everybody bought into it, even though the Harold campaign was all but dark on TV the final week while Pritzker and others were pumping in millions into Raoul’s effort over the last three weeks to help move his margin up from mid-to-high-single digits to low double-digits.

Raoul didn’t magically pull out a huge win at the 11th Hour “because Madigan.” It was built over time and he earned it. Yeah, I didn’t like his TV ads, but they got stronger toward the end.

The overwhelming media narrative did serve a purpose, however. The warnings of a super-duper close race for an important job probably helped the entire Democratic ticket by motivating some folks to vote.

* Having said all that, I think Harold deserves a lot of credit here. She’s a natural campaigner and had a good team. If the governor had come through with all the money he promised her, she probably would’ve made this a more competitive race. She got game. I hope she runs for something else.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 10:49 am

Comments

Rich - I agree with your sentiments about Harold’s talent. I thought her concession speech was really good. I do, however, wonder if she can get elected state wide being as socially conservative as she is. I thought her commercials were good but she still ended up getting shellacked. She has to be careful about her next race (as you and others have noted), lest she become a Harold Stassen or Lar “America First” Daly.

Comment by Paddyrollingstone Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 10:55 am
Maybe Harold could run for local office to get some experience.

Comment by 360 turn Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 10:58 am
Declarin’ her intention to investigate corruption was a bonehead move. As was GovJunk announcement that she would prosecute Madigan. Made her look like she was little more than another clown car co-pilot.
There may be 2 time losers who make comebacks, but it will be a big hill. Plus she will have to combat CommandoIves and her “salavation” crusade.

Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 10:58 am
I’ve watched Kwame for quite a while now. I was excited when he came out for the office back in the primary and my mind was made up who would get my vote all along.

Kwame worked for this and he earned it. I voted early a couple weeks ago just in case I couldn’t vote on the 6th.

Comment by Cindy Lou Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:02 am
I’ll tell you from a Democratic perspective though that the worry was real. And since “owning the libs” is a major motivator for Republicans, when they picked up on that their excitement was probably real, too.

In regards to Harold, she needs to get a W soon, or she’s going to be one of those “You’re the future of the party…and you always will be” types.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:02 am
Scott Bennett is up in 2 years. Run for that seat. Please.

Comment by Ric Flair Woo Chop Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:08 am
360, you mean like JB?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:08 am
Oh, I liked Raoul’s ads — they, along with Sean Casten’s, were almost the only ads I didn’t have to TURN OFF THE DANG TV when they came on and my kids were still awake.

Comment by Suburban Mom Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:10 am
Harold’s concession speech last night was very, very good. Aside from Stratton’s (which, whew), it was the best speech I heard all night.

Comment by lakeside Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:12 am
At some point, Harold needs to win. Something. Anything.

She’s skipped the GA.

Maybe running for a state House or Senate seat might be a place to actually begin a career outside just being a perennial candidate.

Build a winning streak.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:14 am
Kwame was able to keep his Kool.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:16 am
Unlike many of the other commenters, I respectfully must disagree that she ran a good campaign. I believe she could have won if she had a better campaign staff and she had listened to better advice.

Her messages were off point and she failed to build certain constituencies that could have made a huge difference, including in the black Chicago community. I am personally aware of four groups that tried to approach her and work with her and either she or her campaign manager didn’t bother to hook up with. This cost her thousands of votes and considerable money just from those groups and the leadership of those groups could have helped her with 20-30 other groups as well.

In the end, she did it to herself. She could have won.

Comment by ChanceMcCall Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:17 am
Harold is done.. or she should be. Two defeats don’t speak well. She couldn’t even win her hometown. She should look to join Fox News.

Comment by Southfarmllama Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:20 am
===this cost her thousands of votes and considerable money===

Harold lost by 471,000 votes.

You got 236,000 votes to flip? Can’t “hide” a quarter of a million votes with a bunch of words and a couple lines.

Your assessment makes no sense, given too that Raoul’s own raw total exceeeded Pritzker’s raw total.

Where are these 236,000 flipped votes.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:21 am
Again, because of the lopsided Governor’s race, there was no credible polling on anything during the final weeks in Illinois.

Comment by Maestro Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:27 am
An 11-point win is a blowout in any league. She performed better than the other GOP statewides. End result is the same as them.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:37 am
She needs to start small, like Oberweiss when he finally won something. Unfortunately, she lives in Urbana, where her social conservativism doesn’t play well. State senator maybe, depending on the boundaries. However, like Oberweiss, she seems to have a high opinion of her qualifications, which may not allow her to start small.

Comment by JIbba Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:42 am
“Where are these 236,000 flipped votes.” They work for the dozens of companies that are aching to come to Illinois as soon as we get term limits.

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:43 am
Very difficult to assess her future potential based on last nights results. She was a passenger on a sinking ship from the day she agreed to join the ticket. Top to bottom quite possibly worst ticket in republican party history. Rivals democrat ticket in ‘94.

Comment by Captain Ed Smith Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:48 am
She should go work for Dan Proft.

Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:48 am
- Jibba -

Or state Senator-Elect Jason Plummer…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:49 am
So the Dems had some polls showing that Raoul was closer than they wanted, and they responded, and he did fine And there were polls showing that Hultgren was tight, and the Republicans did nothing and nothing and more nothing and then the last weekend took action, and Lauren Underwood is going to Congress. That’s a lesson to learn from, not what the Trib says.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 11:53 am
A problem Harold has is that her talents are more applicable in a media driven statewide race than in a state senate race, for example. But her views make it hard for her to win statewide.

It’s very telling that she lost her home county. It’s an embarrassment. Having had one conversation with her, I find her very likable and not at all relatable. I wonder if that’s reflected in the Champaign county results.

I’m not sure I agree her campaign was a good one. Raoul’s attacks on social issues were entirely predictable, and her rebuttal that “my views don’t matter” was ridiculous.

Comment by DarkHorse Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:02 pm
===because of the lopsided Governor’s race, there was no credible polling===

That makes zero sense.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:04 pm
“I hope she runs for something else.”

I don’t. Her personal views are apparently so abhorrent that she won’t share them with voters.

Comment by Anon E Moose Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:09 pm
I disagree with “…but Sam McCann took 188,000 votes from Rauner. So there’s that.” as a blanket statement.
Sevrral folks that I know said they voted for McCann simply because he is not a millionaire/billionaire. McCann also apparently took some Pritzker votes, too.

Comment by My New Handle Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:20 pm
Well, there was a “poll” at the end showing Raoul up only 1, but it was a McCulloch Special so it proved to be about as accurate as one should expect.

I was skeptical of the potential for an upset as all the leaks to that effect were so consistent with “playing up a close race to drive fundraising.” Still it turns out I wasn’t skeptical enough. I had Raoul +6, figuring Harold would pick up some Pritzker voters who were frustrated with Rauner but would find her message of being a check on one-party rule. Given how closely the Raoul v. Harold numbers track to Pritzker v. Rauner+McCann, that doesn’t appear to be the case in any significant numbers.

Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:28 pm
Harold has talent, but her views just don’t fit the state. That’s the problem. And if she runs in a Champaign County-based legislative district she’ll be at an even greater ideological disadvantage.

If she wants to hold elected office, she probably has to move.

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:32 pm
DarkHorse, I have heard similar comments. She didn’t help herself with that “my views don’t matter” comment; it was at best ridiculous, at worst, it was seen as a clumsy attempt to hide her views. It will be interesting to see what she does in the coming year or two.

I get that people’s ideas evolve. But there are better ways of explaining that.

Comment by Mr. Smith Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:36 pm
**Scott Bennett is up in 2 years. Run for that seat. Please.**

Champaign County just crushed it for the Dems in an off year. The Dem got 45% of the vote in the very Republican side of the district. If Harold runs against Bennett in 2020, she’ll lose her 3rd race.

Comment by SaulGoodman Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 12:53 pm
I never saw this as being a close race but then again I didn’t see a lot of polling on it. Harold was up against a significant blue wave in this state and had to counter not only Raunerism but Trumpism as well. It was hard to see her overcoming that as I don’t think there were a lot of ticket splitters. You either bought into the Republican message or you rejected it. The statewide race results tell the story.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:32 pm
“Game” is all she’s got. Maybe she should try to accomplish something other than being a corporate lawyer in the next four years before her next run.

Comment by filmmaker prof Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:14 pm
I want whatever Pat Brady smokes…

Comment by wakeup Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 5:13 pm
In Champaign think students.

Comment by Hickory Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 7:57 pm
What Roman and Saul Goodman said.

Comment by Lynn S. Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:45 am