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Um, this was not why Roskam lost

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Illinois

President Donald Trump on Wednesday is scorching House Republicans who did not embrace him and lost election bids on Tuesday, including Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill.

“Peter Roskam didn’t want the embrace,” Trump said.

Democratic first-time candidate Sean Casten beat Roskam to represent the Illinois 6th congressional district. Roskam kept his distance from Trump in a district that went for Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. Casten linked Roskam to Trump throughout his campaign.

At a White House news conference, Trump noted the contenders who ran with him and won, including Illinois GOP Reps. Michael Bost and Rodney Davis.

Every Republican congressional candidate lost in DuPage County, the heart of Roskam’s district. It was a no-brainer for Bost and Davis to embrace the president because they represent Trump Countr. Roskam does not. The area is historically Republican, but it’s not “Trump Republican.” No disrespect intended, but it just doesn’t make much logical sense to equate those districts.

* And then there were these Illinois election day poll results…

As voters cast ballots for governor and members of Congress in Tuesday’s elections, AP VoteCast found that 33 percent of Illinois voters said the country is on the right track, compared with 67 percent who said the country is headed in the wrong direction. […]

A majority of voters in Illinois had negative views of Trump: 62 percent said they disapprove of how he is handling his job as president, while 38 percent said they approve of Trump.

And that’s statewide, so those results are diluted by the more rural areas that support the POTUS. Imagine what they’re like in the suburbs, most of which turned pretty darned “blue” this week.

Roskam had his own issues, but a failure to embrace the president wasn’t one of them.

* Related…

* How the SALT tax doomed Peter Roskam: Two key authors of the GOP tax overhaul—Illinois’ Peter Roskam and Minnesota’s Erik Paulsen—were among the casualties as voters vented frustration over a new cap on state and local tax deductions.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:10 pm

Comments

Is 2018 a harbinger of 2020 for the Trump administration?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:12 pm
when you govern like the Godfather, you use terms like “the embrace.”

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:13 pm
Being the chief sponsor of a tax bill that raises taxes substantially on the upper middle class to give huge tax breaks to millionaires was not the smartest play for his Suburban District.

Comment by Fax Machine Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:15 pm
Didn’t Hultgren embrace Trump immediately before the election?

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:16 pm
@Amalia….or horse head.

Comment by Flynn's Mom Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:16 pm
–Every Republican congressional candidate lost in DuPage County, the heart of Roskam’s district. –

Yeah, but if you eliminate Chicago, the suburbs, the university towns, Rock Island County, St. Clair County, Peoria County, Rockford and Galesburg, Illinois really is a crimson state.

That kind of logic gets you a deep-thinker gig in troncslyvania.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:16 pm
===No disrespect intended, but it just doesn’t make much logical sense to equate those districts.===

Yeah, Trump and Logical Sense: Never the twain shall meet.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:17 pm
The Trump message and governing philosophy favors red states over blue. It’s all about picking winners and losers and unfortunately Trump has deemed the people in their respective district losers.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:22 pm
–Didn’t Hultgren embrace Trump immediately before the election?–

Sure did. Went hundreds of miles away from his district in the final days to do so.

Did he even use it in anyway on TV or lit? How were people supposed to know?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:27 pm
You are simplifying things re: Davis and Trump.

Davis may have showed up with Trump at some rallies south of I-72 (after having asked him to step down in 2016 after Access Hollywood) but as recently as July he would not say he voted for Trump and his ads were not linking him to Trump the way Bost’s were. As in all things, Davis was trying to have it both ways instead of full-throated support like Bost.

Given the anti-Trump turnout in Champaign County you can make the case that Davis supporting Trump hurt him as much as it may have helped him with Trump voters in Decatur or Edwardsville.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:29 pm
eta: Just realized my quibble is with Lynn Sweet’s paraphrasing of Trump and not Rich. My bad.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:31 pm
I predict that Trump being at the top of the ballot in 2020, and demanding that the entire GOP embrace him, will be a serious impediment to the IL GOP being able to reorganize itself, in a viable way.

Loyalty to Trump would seem the obvious issue for contested 2020 IL GOP primaries.

And, can anyone confirm whether Jeanne Ives lives in IL-6?

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:33 pm
Oh believe me IL14 knew he went downstate to stand with the president. Terrible idea under the circumstances.

I just caught some of the president’s news conference. Nothing–and I’m not exaggerating–nothing I witnessed was logical. It would be logical to allow a reporter to finish a question, at least sort of answer the question, or to not lie. None of that happened.

Comment by Lefty Lefty Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:36 pm
Trump is up to 30 provable lies per day.

Why stop now? Roskam lost because he supported Trump, not because he ran from him.

Trump will never accept that.

And, scene.

Comment by Go Illini Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:48 pm
Now that Tuesday’s over, will Trump follow through on the middle-class tax cut, declare war on the immigrant caravan, and end birthright citizenship?

Thank goodness Illinois voters can see through Trump (and Roskam).

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:48 pm
Most of the areas where Trump “won” were rural and the brown invaders stuff gets a lot of traction there as well.

Why rural America is afraid of a handful of South Americans looking for a better life is a mystery to me, but that message was effective.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:55 pm
I’d say he lost due to the constant barrage of text messages and calls. He was worse than Lisa from Card Services.

Comment by SKI Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Rubbing SALT in the wound.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:22 pm
Illinois is no longer bipartisan. It’s bluer than Massachusetts. Roskam lost because he wasn’t a Democrat, and after redistricting, Illinois may not have any GOP representatives in Congress.

A better question is: “How does living in a one-party state helps Illinois?”

Seriously, single party rule isn’t a good thing.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:25 pm
Js mill- let me help you out. Additional unskilled hands reduce wages of our unskilled citizens. Go read ANY Labor peer review article published in the last 45 years.

Comment by Al Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:35 pm
–…and after redistricting, Illinois may not have any GOP representatives in Congress.–

Not that grim. But the GOP is going to eat the lost seat or two. It’s a good bet that at least two GOP incumbents will be thrown into large-by-territory solid GOP districts.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:40 pm
Hoping Ives runs against Casten. He doesn’t actually represent the views of most of the people in the district - they just don’t realize it yet.

Comment by Hysteria Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 3:50 pm
–Hoping Ives runs against Casten. He doesn’t actually represent the views of most of the people in the district - they just don’t realize it yet.–

Good thing “most of the people” have you around to tell them what they think.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:06 pm
===“How does living in a one-party state helps Illinois?”===

Your whining is misplaced VMan. Casten and Underwood campaigned on protecting health care in the face of repeated GOP attempts to gut the ACA.

Republicans responded with “Madigan.”

Don’t complain about one-party rule when your team can’t put forward a coherent reason for voters to elect them.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:11 pm
ACA can’t be gutted because it’s already taxidermed.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:21 pm
I’m not whining.
Single party rule doesn’t work.
No matter the party, no matter the state.
Fact.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:23 pm
===ACA can’t be gutted because it’s already taxidermed.===

That’s the kind of bumper-sticker sloganeering masking as public policy that results in your waking up to a single party state.

Offer some ideas. Get in the game. If you can’t, then please be quiet. Because whatever you call the noise you’re making, it sounds like whining to me.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:29 pm
–ACA can’t be gutted because it’s already taxidermed.–

What motivates a pointless and meaningless comment?

Lack of knowledge, perhaps?

https://www.statista.com/topics/3272/obamacare/

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:35 pm
=Roskam lost because he wasn’t a Democrat, and after redistricting, Illinois may not have any GOP representatives in Congress.=

No. Roskam lost because he supported the President’s agenda even when it wasn’t in the best interests of his constituents. A district by the way that was drawn to favor his party. He compounded matters by refusing to talk with the people he represented. It doesn’t matter what party you belong to, you make those kinds of mistakes the voters will notice. Ignoring the people that elected you never works.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:51 pm
Roskam didn’t lose for one reason and many good reasons are identified above, but most important is a combination of party realignment and demographic change. This was a safe R district when it was created and that has changed having nothing to do with Roskam himself. He might have been able to counter that, but these changes were coming regardless of the candidate. It’ll be a swing district for a while, but it’s not Safe R territory anymore.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 5:32 pm
==Why rural America is afraid of a handful of South Americans looking for a better life is a mystery to me, but that message was effective.==

If you check the actual U.S. statistics from the cbp.gov website there have been roughly 500,000 apprehensions per year at the border for the past several years. That’s the equivalent of the entire population of Downers Grove illegally crossing every month or the entire population of Peoria crossing every few months. I can’t speak to any fear but the characterization that this issue is over a “handful” of migrants is disingenuous.

Comment by CrazyHorse Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 5:49 pm
@CrazyHorse - What’s also disingenuous is failing to tell the whole story when it comes to immigration numbers. Since you’re a stickler for facts you might want to google “net migration” and then tell us why this issue is one of the centerpieces of the President’s platform. I think even the rural areas get google these days.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 7:04 pm
.5 million divided by 325.7 million is .0015, or .15%, so that’s a handful.

From the Cambridge English Dictionary: handful: noun: very few,especially when compared to a larger group.

Of course people shouldn’t overstay their visas and they should enter legally. But I believe J.S. Mill was referring to the Central American caravan that was used to scare people this previous month. The people are planning to apply for refugee status, and that is legal. They can work and live in an apartment until their day in court according to the US Department of State.

I’m not sure why Al thinks they are all unskilled. I’m sure a lot of them had occupations before their country became a failed state.

https://www.state.gov/j/prm/ra/receptionplacement/index.htm

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 7:05 pm
–If you check the actual U.S. statistics from the cbp.gov website there have been roughly 500,000 apprehensions per year at the border for the past several years.–

Based on that, what’s disingenuous and obviously partisan, despicably racist rhetoric is the president of the United States declaring a few thousand poor, unarmed Honduran men, women and children wandering around on foot in Mexico are a threat to national security that requires deployment of the most powerful military in history to the border.

And declare, as commander-in-chief, to shoot anyone who throws a rock, in violation of U.S. law and the armed forces rules of engagement and all morality.

The “carvan” hasn’t made it to Mexico City, yet. They’re weeks from Brownsville.

I think they’ve lost the element of surprise to their invasion.

L’Chaim, scaredy-cat. See you in church.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 8:56 pm
SALT may have contributed to Roskam’s loss but it’s really tough for a “R” to win in Blue IL.

Comment by justacitizen Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 10:41 pm
Justaciticzen - I take it you’re not aware of Roskam’s history in prior elections. He won all of them easily. The district was drawn for a Republican. The people didn’t change his party did. And when faced with the choice Roskam put the party above those people.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 6:19 am
–SALT may have contributed to Roskam’s loss but it’s really tough for a “R” to win in Blue IL.–

LOL, after beating Duckworth in a close race the first time, he won by 18 to 34 points in every election until this one.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:04 am