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A squeaker and a shocker

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Illinois

A north suburban Statehouse seat remains a tossup after Tuesday’s polling totals show the candidates are separated by just one vote.

Republican Helene Miller Walsh, who was appointed to the seat in August after her predecessor Nick Sauer’s abrupt resignation, garnered 25,106 votes, while her Democratic opponent Mary Edly-Allen’s total stands at 25,105. […]

The race now could hinge on remaining provisional ballots and mail-in ballots, and could take up to two weeks to decide.

Provisional ballots — those cast by voters whose eligibility is in question — will continue to be evaluated and, where found valid, counted until 14 days after the election. Mail-in ballots continue to arrive, and those postmarked by election day will also be counted, explained election officials in Lake County, where all but one precinct in the 51st House District is located.

There are actually three things to watch here: 1) Mail-in ballots that haven’t yet been received or counted; 2) Provisional ballots; 3) A large number of challenges to mail-in ballots (particularly of signatures), mainly by Republicans. Those signatures are a tough issue because getting them approved requires a signed and notarized affidavit.

Even so, the odds appear to be against Rep. Walsh at the moment. We’ll see. Up to the lawyers now.

* Meanwhile, this outcome was last night’s shocker…

Newcomer Democratic candidate Anne Stava-Murray narrowly beat incumbent Republican state Rep. David Olsen in the 81st House District race.

Unofficial counts of all precincts in DuPage and Will counties show Stava-Murray with 23,671 votes to Olsen’s 23,326 votes.

* Stava-Murray raised almost no money, and is repeatedly on record as opposing House Speaker Michael Madigan. From her Facebook page this past April…

Deeply disappointed in today’s vote that keeps Speaker Madigan the Chair of the (D) party of IL (DPI). I will not accept funding or staff from DPI while he remains the leader.

Some people say: why not? (R)s will still call you a puppet, might as well take the money. To that I say, 3 things…

ONE: for a party that claims to support #endcitizensunited; this (D) machine controls big money and campaign messaging. I refuse to sell out the voice of my district for the chance at a pyrrhic victory.

TWO: for a party that claims to support labor; this (D) machine provides staffers unacceptable wages/working conditions. #clipboardsandcontracts

THREE: for a party that claims to support women; this (D) machine allowed Springfield to remain rife with sexual harassment and retribution for reporting. Ongoing coverups silence real change being made. #TimesUp

Fear and intimidation are used by this machine to silence voices before they speak a word of dissent. I believe dissent is patriotic; we need change for IL and that change cannot be brought by Madigan as Chair of the party.

I will gladly face whatever consequences come my way as a result of speaking up; because the cost of staying silent is too great.

Plain and simple, Rep. Olsen blew it. The HGOPs made some last-minute expenditures there, but the candidate has to work. He was spotted planting yard signs for other Republican candidates the other day.

* Related…

* Democratic women make unprecedented gains in DuPage County

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:28 pm

Comments

Hadn’t seen it. That post of Anne Stava-Murray’s is awesome.

Best of luck to her in Springfield even if only for the next two years.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:36 pm
They should have put someone - anyone - on the ballot against Mike McAuliffe (unless the non-aggression pact is back), because the Republicans would have been forced to spend a million dollars and still might have lost in the blue wave.

Comment by Grand Avenue Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:37 pm
Hope that Olsen runs again in two years. It’s a shame that he goes down with this.

Comment by LC Illini Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:38 pm
“He was spotted planting yard signs for other Republican candidates the other day.”

Definitely seems like a guy who was trying to go too-fast-too-soon on climbing the ladder and seeming like a regional political leader. The good news for him is he’s young enough for a comeback…but how forgiving will the party be (what’s left of it)?

Comment by NIU Grad Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:39 pm
I guess David Olsen’s photo op at Omega w/ Rauner didnt help him.

Comment by PP Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:39 pm
Lake County GOP has no game. They continually get crushed in early voting. Picking Miller-Walsh was self serving by Chairman Shaw who by the way couldn’t win a race even if the Democrat opponent was a toss in with no political connections, no name idea, no money and didn’t work at all. Oh wait he lost one of those races this cycle for County Clerk. The only saving grace for Miller-Walsh could be that there is a military base up there and some of those late arriving ballots could be military. You would think those would favor her. Long shot but her only shot.

Comment by Baggs McCoy Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:42 pm
Too much, too soon for Olsen.

Appointed, probably felt “invincible”, without really feeling the heat or having the scars to make him worry.

Like his appointment, this loss was “out of the blue” and “unexpected”.

Wasted talent here, as you can’t be appointed as a youthful rising star, only to be then labeled “lazy” to your work.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:44 pm
@Grand - The timing of the Marwig withdrawal prevented that, IIR.

Comment by Conn Smythe Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:44 pm
==Definitely seems like a guy who was trying to go too-fast-too-soon on climbing the ladder and seeming like a regional political leader.==

Olsen definitely had this “GOP Golden Boy” air to him after he was appointed to the seat in the wake of Ron Sandack’s Filipino Whoopsie. Fifteen years ago, that alone would have been enough to give him a couple terms in the House with zero campaigning and plenty of time to work on his game and fundraising to work his way up the ladder.

Judging by last night’s results, no one bothered to inform anyone in the DuPage County GOP that it is not, in fact, fifteen years ago.

Comment by Roadrager Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:52 pm
Unless something goofy happens, Walsh appears to be toast. As usual, Lake Co dropped its early votes very late and, unlike the blue wave of past years, this year the EV/AB’s were a tsunami. Knocked about 6 points off every countrywide Republican’s margin. She was up 1000 votes before they dropped. Can’t see how late-arriving mail would help her considering the last-minute spending that flooded in.

Comment by KungFuCaine Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:52 pm
I hope speaker Madigan treads carefully around this one Stava-Murray. Ensuring no harrasment or intimidation occurs to her because I’m sure she will be looking and documenting every encounter in her quest to get rid of Madigan. So I hope he is kind and treats her with the utmost respect.

Comment by Real Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 1:55 pm
Marwig should have better luck in 2020. She should of stayed in this year.

Comment by Real Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:03 pm
We talked here on the blog on Monday about how important the JB vote-by-mail effort could be in close races. In addition to taking Miller-Walsh’s 1-vote “win” off the board, VBM will probably spell doom for Mike Connelly’s 12-vote lead for his senate seat.

Money not only buys you a lot of tv advertising, it can buy you a good ground game, too. I have 9 nieces and nephews between the ages of 18 and 25. Everyone of them got a VBM kit from JB.

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:22 pm
Olsen was not the GOP’s golden boy. Infact some of the votes he took put him right in the cross hairs of many in his party. Did he mess up? I mean he didn’t win, so yes. However, I seriously doubt it was because he was chasing the ladder. He was however a moderate Republican in a state where they are becoming extinct. In the last few years they have either eaten their own in primary, retired or lost to Democrats.
For the record he was one of only two Republicans to get the social workers endorsement He wasn’t always on our social work issues but he was always fair, listened, made time to truly understand what a bill is trying to do. He is also willing to buck his party if needed - and he did on several bills. In short he took the responsibility and honor to represent his community seriously.

If you don’t work down there, you really don’t understand how rare that is. His future is bright - and the state is better because he served. I am as surprised as many people are at this result but sometimes the current is too strong and every election has their - where did that come from result. I genuinely wish the guy the best.

Comment by Kyle Hillman Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:31 pm
Kinda off topic, but I was shocked that Art Jones got 56k votes. I have to imagine the majority of those voters had no idea who he was, and some thought all the Nazi stuff was spin/propaganda/”fake news”, but still. A Holocaust denying Nazi got 25% of the vote? He did better than a Tillman in D-1 right next door, percentage wise. Not as good as Stella in D-11, but still.

Comment by Perrid Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:31 pm
Rich mentioned time for the lawyers. Don’t forget that the court of last resort is the chamber itself. The House (and in Connelly’s case the Senate) decide all election contests such that the decision to reject ballots is not ultimately in the hands of the local election officials but by the majority vote of the respective body. Food for thought…

Comment by depressed in politics Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:46 pm
===I seriously doubt it was because he was chasing the ladder.===

It could’ve been because he was putting up yard signs for others.

Wasted talent, from “A Bronx Tale” isn’t about being golden, it is about having *the talent* to do or be anything, and making bad choices.

With great respect, especially towards you - Kyle Hillman - … and towards clarification.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 2:47 pm
==documenting every encounter w Madigan==

LOL - I dont think there will be too many. There usually arent and in this case, given her statements, even less probably.

Comment by low level Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 3:19 pm
In the primary, both ran unopposed.

Olsen got 8,924
Stava-Murray got 10,935

That should have been a wake up call to Rep Olsen.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 3:31 pm
Keep in mind there are still 15,510 vote by mail ballots out in Lake County. Even if only 10 percent are returned, it could widen the Walsh-Edly-Allen race considerably. https://www.elections.il.gov/Counts/Pre-Election/Pre-election%20Ballot%20Requests%2011-7-18.pdf

Comment by Peter Torque Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 3:44 pm
David Olsen is a strange bird. Doesn’t make him a bad guy, but man, he is a strange bird.

Comment by Name/Nickname/Anon Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:38 pm
Being from Lake County, I’m embarrassed that Helene Miller Walsh got as many votes as she did from my former neighbors. That woman has no business being anywhere near the halls of power, let alone be a part of it.

Comment by 312 Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 4:45 pm
Word of advice to Representative-Elect Stava-Murray: don’t fall into the trap of trying to be the Dem version of Jeanne Ives.

Comment by GA Watcher Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 5:03 pm
Olsen was a hyper partisan empty suit with no political chops, just talking point garbage. As much as I vote republican, seeing Olsen does not surprise me in the least.

Comment by Saluki Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 6:08 pm
So the big question is when will the race for Connelley and Miller-Walsh be called?
Is there anyway to find out how many ballots haven’t been counted?
I clicked that link that showed how many vote by mail were sent out and how many came back but were all those counted yesterday?

Comment by DuPage Bard Wednesday, Nov 7, 18 @ 6:18 pm