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The way ahead

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Illinois

“If you want to be purely political about it, the numbers just don’t hold up,” [former Gov. Jim Edgar] said. “White people aren’t going to be around (as a majority) much longer. You look at what’s coming up, young people, people of color, we’ve got to figure out a way to attract them. You may not carry all of those, but you’ve got to do better than we did in this election.”

Greg Baise, the outgoing president and CEO of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, faulted Republican leaders in the suburbs for not actively recruiting support among a changing electorate after years in which the GOP just assumed newcomers largely from the city would become Democratic defectors. Baise cited the retirements of some women suburban legislators whom local GOP leaders replaced with suburban men as one example of a failure to look forward.

“We don’t take the opportunity, when you’re trying to grow in the suburbs,” Baise said. “Is there any effort to find Hispanic business leaders that are Republican-oriented and to promote them and to talk with them and have them a part of any activity? Any effort like this? I haven’t heard of any if there is, whatsoever.”

“The business community, we get the phone calls (from campaigns) at election time: ‘Oh, can we have somebody walk through a manufacturing facility?’ Well, guess what they see when they walk through the manufacturing facility?” he said, noting that many have large numbers of Latino factory workers. “And half of the supervisors for the owners of those companies have to speak Spanish.”

* Shia Kapos…

Illinois Democrats’ takeover of every level of government has the Illinois Republican Party is taking stock on how to shift gears. The way Pat Brady sees it, the Illinois GOP needs an “autopsy” similar to what the national GOP underwent in 2012 when Mitt Romney lost to President Barack Obama. “We need to get back to the party of Reagan, a party that appeals to a broad spectrum,” he told POLITICO.

That would mean having to pull back from the politics of Dick Uihlein, the business magnate who supported conservatives across the country during this past election season, including Alabama Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore—who was accused of sexually assaulting teens when he was in his 30s. Uihlein lives in Wisconsin but has been an influence on GOP politics in Illinois, funneling $8.5 million to the Liberty Principles PAC and to conservative gubernatorial candidate Jeanne Ives (who lost to Bruce Rauner in the primary).

Brady and others say the Illinois GOP would do better to stop focusing on social issues like gay marriage, especially as more young people and women get involved in the voting process.

GOP state Rep. Dave McSweeney also points to the missteps of Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. “ We have a massive tax hike, out of control spending, a big unpaid backlog of bills—and we have fewer Republican General Assembly members,” he told POLITICO. “We’re worse off than when he came in.”

McSweeney says Republicans need to follow Democrats’ political tactics: Run a grassroots GOTV campaign. “This wasn’t a policy victory,” he said, referring to J.B. Pritzker’s rout over Rauner. “Pritzker ran on a vague platform. What he and Democrats did was get out the vote.”

The trouble with Brady’s thinking is that, while Bruce Rauner was a classic “post-autopsy” Republican candidate, Donald Trump threw that autopsy out the window and tripled-down on immigration, etc. The president cannot be wished away and his reelection bid is next on the statewide list, so finding Republican Latino candidates, as Baise suggests, is gonna be really tough. And winning over minority voters, as Edgar urges, ain’t gonna be easy, either.

Also, shortly before election day, Brady called polls showing Rauner trailing by double-digits “inherently unreliable.” Rauner lost by 15 points. He’s a better surrogate than he is a prognosticator.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:15 am

Comments

Post-Rauner, post-Trump I will never even consider voting GOP ever again.

Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:26 am
Illinois is not favorable to today’s Republicans, with anti-unionism/IPI/Koch brothers fiscal austerity on one hand and Trump xenophobia/racism/nastiness on the other.

Not having Trump as president would have probably helped Rauner, but his record was abysmal, as was the damage he caused with his budget crisis.

Many feel much better today than we did a week ago. We’ll see how it goes, but Pritzker so far has been a godsend to many, especially those with less financial means to have battled Rauner.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:27 am
Really the best the statewide GOP can hope for is to lay low, save what seats they can, fight off the out-of-touch social conservatives, wait out Trump, and wait for the national mood to shift. There’s no path for victory in two years, except maybe taking back some of the seats that they lost in moderate areas.

Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:28 am
What a joke. Edgar hasn’t won an election since well back in last century. And Pat Brady is one of losingest state chairs in history. Beyond clueless.

Comment by GOPgal Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:30 am
How can anyone blame Trump or any leader when you have republicans in congess or in the legislature who enable people like Trump and Rauner? And not only that you also have republican voters that actively support these type of elected officials. None of that attracts minorities to the republican pary as it’s not the best interest for a majority of us

Comment by Real Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:31 am
===What a joke. Edgar hasn’t won an election…===

Edgar never lost an election. Never lost a statewide election.

It’s not a joke, it’s understanding Illinois and knowing Raunerism and Trump isn’t a winning ILGOP formula in a long term build of a party.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:32 am
After every election cycle, the GOP always “reflects” and comes to the same conclusion that they need more youth, more ethnicity, and more gender diversity. And every two years, nothing changes. You may get candidates interested, but then the youth are told to wait their turn, and the ethnically diverse candidates have bad ballot names for GOP primaries. Females are slowly making strides, but not fast enough. You can’t change if you don’t want to change.

Comment by Lost In Chicago Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:34 am
I don’t know how much the average young person pays attention to state politics, so I can’t quantify the lasting damage Rauner has done to the GOP here in Illinois. But Trump has poisoned the GOP for a generation.

Deservedly so.

Comment by AlfondoGonz Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:37 am
A good start would be recognizing math and facts. While generally few parties’ politicians have ever been lauded for their honest, the blatant non-stop lying (See Bush, Cheney, Rauner, Trump, Durkin) about important issues has become downright harmful.
Also the more nuanced dishonesty of calling the paying old debts as “out of control spending” or taking “holidays” from debt service should red flag a person as unfit for public office.
The dishonesty and its debt are drowning us. The GOP has a chance to go back to being fiscal conservatives and responsible stewards of public trust if they would just tell the truth more often than not.

Comment by Duopoly Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:37 am
Not really sure qhy Pat Brady gets so much air time as the gop expert. He all over radio saying same thing over and over. Goid pr for his lucrative lobbying business but no original ideas

Comment by Regular democrat Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:38 am
It is difficult for the GOP to be forward thinking when their mindset is to bring back the good ol days when women knew their place and the country was much whiter.

Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:38 am
Oswego Willy, what are u talking about? No one in IL even seriously embraced Trump except 4 Bost and he won by big margin. U need new hobby

Comment by GOPgal Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:39 am
It will be impossible for Illinois Republicans to claw their way back to majority status in the suburbs given the current branding of the national party.

And there is no path to a GA majority or successful statewide candidates without regaining that majority status in the suburbs.

To confused Republicans such as Chapin Rose who refer to “all-dominant Chicago,” the city is 21% of the state’s population. The GOP finds itself where it is today because it’s losing the suburbs.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:40 am
ILGOP needs to stop the criminalization of need and poverty.
Yes folks must be responsible and accountable.
And
Folks here in the Metro East
Are still hurting
Still suffering
From the budget impasse
Rauner can still help many
Governor Rauner
Please request the waiver
For the Work Requirement for
SNAP
If the work requirement comes on
It will wipe out what is barely left
In our community
HSC’s have now all been trained in it
Only you Bruce Rauner
Can keep it from coming on.
Mrs. Rauner
You know the jobs are there
But the wages aren’t
All the work Requirement will do
Is kick people just when things
Are starting to improve.
The local economy’s just aren’t good enough yet
Please
Just as last year
I will sing your praises
Have mercy
Request the waiver

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:41 am
To the Post,

The national GOP lost me with Trump. I’m no Trump, never Trump. The Trump GOP is not my GOP, so…

The state GOP, two years earlier, lost me with Raunerism.

I still vote in GOP primaries, I still look to leaders in the GOP I will support… but if you’re giving me, first Raunerism, then this nationalist Trumpism… you lose me, and I would be measured as a “reliable GOP voter”.

This is a huge lift.

The Slytherins smell blood in the water after Rauner, the grifters smell money in the air, TV and mailboxes, and the moderates feel that fiscal conservatism and moderate social issues will end their careers, with no base in a primary.

I don’t envy those rebuilding.

Again, new voices, sure, but new languages too.

Spanish, for one. Reaching out to Latinos… can’t be ham handed.

The numbers that women, suburban women, voted against Republicans, minorities too…

You can’t cheer for a monolithic party and expect that party ever to be a majority, especially in Illinois

A dynamic leader, a woman maybe, a minority, possibly, who can see diversity to thought and politics avd agreement 80% of the time… while marginalizing the grifters and the far right ideologues… that’s ground zero to build from ashes.

Numbers?

Look at the Dem-GOP splits…

114/63… 177
6/0… 6
2/0… 2
12/6… 18

134/69… 203

The math of Illinois politics.

If you think Raunerism has no blame in the 4 years… how can Rauner lose by 15 points, worse loss by any sitting GOP Governor in 116 years.

It’s time to get back to look ahead.

Where is the leader to do it?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:44 am
I don’t tune in to WGN anymore after all the fawning over Brady and his pablum in the morning on the way to work.

Comment by DeseDemDose Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:47 am
The ILGOP will go the way of the national party. Jeanne Ives will be a much more formidable 2022 contender than people give her credit for. Bookmark me.

Comment by WSJ Paywall Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:47 am
===what are u talking about? No one in IL even seriously embraced Trump except 4 Bost and he won by big margin.===

You think Trump can beat his own numbers of 2016, let alone poll better now than his 2016 numbers?

Hobby or not, Trump is not popular, Rauner was defeated at a humiliating lever of loss.. being “right” or with Trump is not going to help the ILGOP.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:47 am
As Rich alluded to, Republicans can conduct their autopsies and make very serious statements about outreach and encouraging diversity, but as long as all their money keeps pouring in from old, rich, white, male bigots, guess what the party’s message is going to be and who they’re going to attract.

Comment by Roadrager Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:50 am
Maybe in 2020 we ran reform the platform to say we recognize gay marriage is okay and legal. Only 5 years late. Younger voters do not want to hear from the GOP.

Comment by ste_wit a v_en Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:52 am
==Oswego Willy, what are u talking about? No one in IL even seriously embraced Trump except 4 Bost and he won by big margin. U need new hobby==

Agree with GOPgal. As a dem, I think the entirety of the ILGOP slate in 2020 should run as far-right, trump supporting candidates. Most will say this will only lead 2 success 4 dems, but U can’t B certain until U try.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:55 am
There would seem to be no path to power for a party whose constituency is making plans to move out of the state.

Comment by simple mind Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:56 am
” “White people aren’t going to be around (as a majority) much longer.” Just come out and say it: The Angry Old White Dude demographic is not a growing one.

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 11:56 am
I think ILGOP is in a pretty tough spot. Trump won and maintains control largely thanks to electoral college and the wildly gerrymandered US senate. In both 2016 and 2018, the GOP lost the popular vote by substantial margins while winning the presidency and maintaining the senate. Fair enough, that’s how the game is played.

State level republicans in Illinois can’t rely on technicalities in the same way, and most people in the state don’t want to buy what their selling, whether it’s Rauner’s austerity or Ives’s reactionary social conservatism.

Comment by Actual Red Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:00 pm
=To confused Republicans such as Chapin Rose who refer to “all-dominant Chicago,” the city is 21% of the state’s population. The GOP finds itself where it is today because it’s losing the suburbs.=

Rose, like Bill Brady makes the same mistake over and over. He thinks everything north of I 80 is “Chicago”. As a transplant to central Illinois from the suburbs I have often tried to help my friends understand the difference.

Rose will never understand the difference because he is unwilling.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:01 pm
–The ILGOP will go the way of the national party. Jeanne Ives will be a much more formidable 2022 contender than people give her credit for.–

The guy she lost to in the primary just got clobbered by 15 points last week. Where does her general election “formidable” come from?

Keep in mind, exit polls showed that Rauner kept the right-wing base.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:04 pm
Obadiah (KJV)
1 The vision of Obadiah. Thus saith the Lord God concerning Edom; We have heard a rumour from the Lord, and an ambassador is sent among the heathen, Arise ye, and let us rise up against her in battle.

2 Behold, I have made thee small among the heathen: thou art greatly despised.

3 The pride of thine heart hath deceived thee, thou that dwellest in the clefts of the rock, whose habitation is high; that saith in his heart, Who shall bring me down to the ground?

4 Though thou exalt thyself as the eagle, and though thou set thy nest among the stars, thence will I bring thee down, saith the Lord.

Comment by Real Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:07 pm
If your thought is to be “farther Right” and more “Trumpian” going forward… in Illinois…

You’re. Not. Helping.

You’re helping the Dems, but…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:08 pm
Trump did a number on suburban voters. Rove spoke out about that. As long as Trump is president, Republicans stand to suffer in suburbs.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:14 pm
I find myself wishing for a storm in the GOP — an unpredictable, haughty, devastating swirl of fury. A dramatic levee break. Geysers bursting through manhole covers. A sleeping party, forced onto the rooftops.

if you think somehow new leadership is going to right the ship, you might want to get your head checked. There is no sense of urgency about the GOP’s perpetual abyss.

Comment by Wednesday Morning QB Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:18 pm
—-Females are slowly making strides, but not fast enough. You can’t change if you don’t want to change.

In the GOP? I don’t know the numbers in Illinois, but the US House on the R side is going to have fewer women next Congress.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:18 pm
===Jeanne Ives will be a much more formidable 2022 contender than people give her credit for.

I agree, as Lester’ Holts Mustache says, you can’t tell until you try it so please try it.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:20 pm
GOP Gov. Baker won blue Massachusetts by 33 points and is popular there with almost all voters. That looks like the best way forward in Illinois and not the anti-union zealot way and the Trump/Ives way.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:21 pm
===Post-Rauner, post-Trump I will never even consider voting GOP ever again.===

Safe to say, you never did.

Comment by People Over Parties Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:22 pm
Trump is toxic to ILGOP and sealed Rauner’s loss. Look at the Republicans who won statewide in IL, and look at the ones who lost. Trumpism, Jeannie Ives and the far-right are guarantors of loss. Do they forget which state they live in? Sheesh.

Comment by People Over Parties Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:24 pm
=== ===Post-Rauner, post-Trump I will never even consider voting GOP ever again.===

Safe to say, you never did.===

Hmm.

You think all those voters who voted for Dems this time around were ALL Dem voters?

Look at Kendall, Kane, DuPage…

All those reliable GOP voters, who always voted Republican… they moved?

Sure… “because the exodus”

LOL

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:25 pm
I will be surprised if a R wins the governor seat in the future. But, I guess it is possible because JB will struggle unless he let’s MJM and others do the heavy lifting.

For all the Trump bashing, who will the Dems throw out there to beat him?

Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:28 pm
===Safe to say, you never did. ===

There’s a winning attitude for ya.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:28 pm
===Trump is toxic to ILGOP and sealed Rauner’s loss.===

Rauner was double digits under water in his own polling.

Rauner lost because he was terribly unlikable, and damaging this state and people voted against the unlikable Rauner, as Dems at a 90% clip supported Pritzker.

Rauner was the most vulnerable outside of Trump because Rauner was a terrible Governor.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:29 pm
===Jeanne Ives will be a much more formidable 2022 contender than people give her credit for.===

She’s going to win a LOT of counties. That’s for sure. Unfortunately for her, none will be named Cook, Lake or DuPage.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:31 pm
===I will be surprised if a R wins the governor seat in the future.===

I won’t.

It’s an off year election, candidates yet to reveal themselves are possible, and there’s a map to win, just as this historic loss by Rauner is how you lose by ridiculous numbers… greater than 11% too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:31 pm
The state party under Pat’s direction won a US Senate race, two constitutional offices, republicans took control of the Illinois congressional delegation and there were pick ups in both the house and senate. We have nothing now. And will be years on the rebuild. This pre-Rauner when republicans were republicans.

Comment by Black Balled Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:58 pm
===I will be surprised if a R wins the governor seat in the future

I won’t. ==

OW is right. Sooner or later, Pritzker is going to screw something up, or one of his appointees will commit some stupid act of petty crime, or there’ll be a massive failure at the agency level. State govt is too big and unwieldy for everything to go perfectly for 4 or 8 years. What will the GOP have to offer when it happens? Will the candidate they put up against Pritzker in 2022 be a moderate who can win back those suburban votes, or will it be the female version of Iowa Rep. Steve King?

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 12:58 pm
Actually, yes, I have voted for GOP candidates in the past. And until now, I’ve always listened to what the GOP candidates had to say.

Just not anymore.

Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 1:14 pm
===Will the candidate they put up against Pritzker in 2022 be a ===

Probably won’t matter either way if the president is reelected.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 1:14 pm
===won a US Senate race, two constitutional offices, republicans took control of the Illinois congressional delegation and there were pick ups in both the house and senate. We have nothing now===

All during a Obama off-year wave elections. Funny how that works.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 1:16 pm
I have to agree with Brady (to an extent). Even if the ILGOP were to move away from some of those social issues, it doesn’t mean that the people who still feel strongly about those issues will just fall in line with the party.

The IL GOP continues to talk about attracting minorities, etc., but they are non-existent in minority communities. I remember in the Illinois GOP Primary, Chris Cleveland (43rd Ward Committeeman and Chicago GOP Chairman), wrote and released a professionally bound book called ” The Governor You Don’t Know” in an attempt to reveal who Bruce Rauner “really is”. Chicago GOP Voters received a copy of the book in the mail.

If the GOP leaders would use half the energy they use in fighting with each other to actually reach out to more diverse populations, then they might be more successful. This party is in shambles….and this is coming from someone who is a minority and typically votes Republican.

Comment by JakeCP Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 1:27 pm
“. . . and the wildly gerrymandered US senate.”

How do you gerrymander a state-wide election?

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 1:33 pm
I agree with Cheryl 44. I will never vote for any Republican now in office or who was running for office. Nationally they have completely abdicated their responsibilities to the Trumpists. Here in Illinois they did not do much better standing up to Rauner. Republicans are going to have to do a whole lot of work to regain my trust and my vote.

Comment by Past the Rule of 85 Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 2:27 pm
When I looked at the Chicago ballot so many uncontested races. The party needs to come into the city and offer a real alternative to what we have now. And as to the Hispanic vote, Ron Desantes in Florida, got 44% of their vote even being as pro Trump as you can get. A lot of it is proper marshalling of resources and finding and supporting the right candidates. Look at Michigan where the African American Republican John James who was pro Trump came within single digits of Stabenow. It takes brains and hard work. Look what Thompson did. The current GOP leaders are unable to do what is necessary to rebuild from the bottom up. Rahm didn’t run because he knew he couldn’t win. The opportunity is there.

Comment by commonsense 171 Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 3:41 pm
“”What he and Democrats did was get out the vote.””

Well that’s certainly true locally, but the underlying environment, which put many seats within range, was driven nationally.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Nov 13, 18 @ 3:56 pm