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The rising tide didn’t lift Rauner’s boat

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Illinois

* The Daily Line’s Hannah Meisel attended an Illinois Republican Party State Central Committee meeting in Bolingbrook over the weekend. From her report…

The main takeaway from the presentation was that Republicans actually did quite well bringing out their own voters. The problem for the GOP, the presenters said, was that the Democrats did much better.

Precisely 912,979 more Illinoisans voted on Nov. 6 than did when Rauner was first elected in 2014, the presenters said. Rauner only lost 61,232 votes compared with his vote total in 2014, but Pritzker gained 794,763 more votes than Gov. Pat Quinn received in 2014. It’s this gap, the presenters said, that the GOP should focus on.

If the Republican presenters are right and 913K more voters cast ballots this year than four years ago and Rauner’s total dropped by 61K, then that’s pretty darned horrible for the GOP.

Also, maybe first focus on the votes Rauner lost from four years ago before going after all those new voters who went for Pritzker? You know… walk before running?

Anyway, go read the rest because there are some pretty good anecdotes in there.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 9:48 am

Comments

===If the Republican presenters are right and 913K more voters cast ballots this year than four years ago and Rauner’s total dropped by 61K, then that’s pretty darned horrible for the GOP.===

Right there. That’s the Rauner impact.

You can NOT dismiss Rauner being so terribly under water himself, and say “oh, that Blue Wave, and the Dem VBM, and the map, and Trump, and… “

No.

Stop.

Rauner was deemed unlikable so fighting for new voters as those who voted before are in concert that Rauner was bad… it was disaster.

It must be noted that these whining, complaining party officials are also ignoring Rauner required depressed turnout, required that depressed turnout in large part to Rauner’s own failings and as a drag himself outside Trump.

The biggest mistake in interpreting these numbers is not baking in the overwhelming unpopularity of Rauner and that *piling on* to… Blue Wave, Trump, etc.

The ILGOP is so much more monolithic to aspects of social and fiscal agendas, that those a “mere” 80% in agreement are considered the outliers of ILGOP ideology.

You can’t be 80% in agreement and be embraced by the Raunerism that enveloped the Rauner-bought ILGOP brand.

I don’t envy those trying to turn this around, but if GOP GA Raunerites who purposely hurt social services, higher education, local and county governments are leading the charge with IPI/Proft ideals… the ILGOP will never be a majority party in Illinois.

Ever.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:07 am
–Precisely 912,979 more Illinoisans voted on Nov. 6 than did when Rauner was first elected in 2014, the presenters said. Rauner only lost 61,232 votes compared with his vote total in 2014, but Pritzker gained 794,763 more votes than Gov. Pat Quinn received in 2014.–

That’s the whole story; monster Dem turnout for a mid-term. There will be a lot more in 2020 if Trump is on the ballot.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:18 am
ILGOP: “It’s not dead, it’s resting. Remarkable bird the Norwegian Blue.”

Comment by Way Way Down Here Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:23 am
Rauner and Republicans had massive opportunity to build Republican brand. But to do that you have to actually build and all they could do was tear down. Instead of actually changing state government to help it serve more citizens they just cut services to everyone and expected we would all thank them. Anyone surprised that people didn’t say thank you at the ballot box. Now we still have the same party in power that has led our state to the edge of bankruptcy and destroyed any realistic alternative. Great job Bruce.

Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:34 am
Almost 294,000 votes went to the independent / libertarian candidates. 6.7% of the total votes. McCann got about 188,000 of those votes that most likely would have gone to Rauner. It wouldn’t have changed who won, but that might be where a lot of the missing (far right) GOP voters went.

I suspect there are a lot of lessons to be learned from the election, but it may not be quite as obvious as some believe. It was a rejection of the imcumbent, but a horrible candidate still managed to get around 39% of the vote total.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:37 am
Wow. Is this the epitaph for the IL GOP?

Comment by Boone's is Back Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:40 am
Why work for a vote or change your positions when suppressing the vote is much easier. Look for increased efforts in 2020, although that will not be as successful here as elsewhere.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:40 am
I am so glad to be in a blue state right now, having high hopes (no pun intended) for policies like marijuana legalization.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 10:46 am
==It was a rejection of the imcumbent, but a horrible candidate still managed to get around 39% of the vote total.==

It is almost unheard of for an incumbent governor, of any party and in any state, to get that low a share of the vote.

Comment by Nacho Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:26 pm
Nacho is correct. 39 percent is not an aspirational number for an incumbent governor. It’s a new hard floor.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:37 pm
== 39 percent is not an aspirational number for an incumbent governor. ==

My point was I didn’t expect Rauner to do that well, given all his negatives this time around.

There is a hard core of conservative voters that could be energized by the right candidate; someone competent in governing, fiscally conservative, and fairly moderate on the social issues.

Unfortunately, I don’t know who that would be.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:45 pm
““I’ve got better things to do with my time to listen to that,” Ives told The Daily Line when asked why she was leaving the meeting only an hour in. ”

Good to see she is taking this well

Comment by ste_wit a v_en Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 1:10 pm
The numbers suggest that this was a personal defeat for Rauner. Like Walker, he was not of the party– much too good for it. With good folks and a message for 21st century IL, they could still be relevant. Maybe.

Comment by Tired Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 3:43 pm