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A look back at Raoul’s campaign

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Illinois

* Politico interviewed Kwame Raoul’s campaign manager Joe Duffy, who is now on Raoul’s transition team…

RAOUL’s COMPELLING STORY. “His family has lived the American dream,” Duffy said of Raoul’s immigrant parents building a life on the South Side. Fast forward to Raoul being named to the state Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama when he was elected to the U.S. Senate. “We focused on that story whenever we could. It resonated with voters.”

THE ERIKA FACTOR. Facing Republican Erika Harold in the general election proved a greater-than-expected challenge. She join the race with little name recognition but also offered a compelling story—entering a beauty pageant to use the cash award to pay for her Harvard Law School education. She’s a poised speaker and tough debater.

THE JUICE. For every $10,000 plugged in to Raoul’s race by J.B. Pritzker or billionaire Neil Bluhm, Harold got her own infusion of cash from Gov. Bruce Rauner and billionaire Ken Griffin. In the end, Raoul more than doubled Harold in fundraising. Raoul took in $13 million to Harold’s $5.5 million. Republicans say a better funded GOP campaign could have swung the race Harold’s way. Maybe.

MEDIA MATTERS. Buzz grew in the media and in some political circles that this was the race to watch—in part because of the successful messaging from Republicans who saw the seat within reach. Or maybe it was just more interesting than the governor’s race. Harold also found a perfect talking point: that electing Raoul would create an all-Democrat leadership in Springfield.

RESOURCES. Unlike the hundreds employed for Pritzker’s statewide race, Raoul had three staffers in the primary and six in the general election. “People were saying this is closer than it is. Or that Kwame is in trouble,” said Duffy, who continued to rely on inside polling that showed otherwise. “We had a plan and stuck to it. We blocked out the noise.”

The inaccurate “buzz” probably helped him and the rest of the Democratic ticket by motivating voters. In the end, Raoul narrowly out-polled Pritzker, although Harold out-performed Rauner (keep in mind, those are preliminary results, before mail-in and provisional ballots were fully counted).

Also, while Harold is a good debater, she failed at provoking any sort of anger from Raoul. The big question about him was always whether he’d become angry during a debate and she poked and prodded him at every one, to no avail. If anything, she came off looking more angry than he did.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 10:37 am

Comments

Will Harold be the GOP hope in 2022? Or will a new billionaire have bought the party by then?

Comment by anon2 Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 10:42 am
Yep. ILGOP back on the auction block for an extremist billionaire to pick up cheap and exert total control. Rinse and repeat for 2022. Good luck.

Comment by El Conquistador Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 10:44 am
I’m still amazed Raoul raised/spent $13 million. I’ve been out of the game for a while, but wow, that’s a lot of dough.

I like Kwame but I thought he was vulnerable. Fortunately for him, the ILGOPs decided to nominate a symbolic candidate instead of an experienced candidate. Harold performed about as well as she was capable of, but her ceiling was always too low. No trial experience, no significant legal experience at all, no real accomplishments.

Getting Raoul to hold his temper in debates is the signature accomplishment of the campaign? Sounds about right.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 10:49 am
–Republicans say a better funded GOP campaign could have swung the race Harold’s way. Maybe.–

I doubt it. Raoul won by half a million votes, 11 points. That’s whuppin’ in any league.

The story last month was the monster Dem turnout. Just compare it to past mid-terms for confirmation.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 10:53 am
==The big question about him was always whether he’d become angry during a debate and she poked and prodded him at every one, to no avail.==

That’s probably a microcosm of the “perception that the race was close helped Raoul” situation. His temper was *Such* a big question- and his rollout so lousy on that front- that he almost certainly took very careful steps to make sure he didn’t lose his cool.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 10:59 am
Raoul’s campaign got caught in the hype machine for the only race the GOP thought it could conceivably win. The truth is that Raoul and his campaign’s victory is nothing out of the ordinary for a state that’s becoming bluer and bluer in a major Democratic year.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 11:10 am
The vote totals are official now and Raoul did get more raw votes and a higher percentage of the vote than Pritzker.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 11:26 am
I see the point re: “buzz” but I question whether that really had an effect on voters. These people who were following the campaigns close enough to know that insider politicos were worried about the closeness of AG race were the ones that really needed an extra umph to vote?

If the point is that the buzz motivated donors to cough up more $$ right at the end then that would make more sense.

Comment by KOL Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 11:51 am
He outspent Harold by nearly $8m in a Democrat wave year. Good for him that his candidate didn’t make a mistake, but the spend numbers here are the story. Not messaging or anything else.

Comment by WOB Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 11:58 am
The the last 2 1/2 weeks, Raoul outspent Harold by almost 10:1 if you count outside expenditures. The institutional Democratic Party really wanted their candidate to win. Can you say the same about the ILGOP hierarchy?

Comment by DarkHorse Tuesday, Dec 4, 18 @ 2:33 pm