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Pritzker changed the map

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Illinois

* Click here or on the pic to read John Pletz’s full story at Crain’s Chicago Business…

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:38 am

Comments

Hopefully this is a lesson for the GOP that one can’t be a terrible governor and do terrible things without consequences, regardless of how much they’re willing to spend to blame someone else.

And — maybe a lesson for some of those legislators that maybe next time, if there ever is a next time, they shouldn’t let a billionaire bribe or coerce them into trying to destroy the state government in some fun political theory experiment.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:49 am
More like Rauner changed the map because he was terrible.

Comment by Jimmy Two Times Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:49 am
It’s not only the counties that went blue, but the counties that went from dark red. The Governor couldn’t even keep the normally solid downstate Republican base in line. It’s indicative of just how badly people viewed him and was a strong rebuke of his time in office. The Governor failed at governing. And the voters told him that loud and clear.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:55 am
Still can’t get over the Blue in those suburbs (you know, the place where about half of the state’s citizens live).

To paraphrase Reagan, I don’t think they left the GOP, the GOP left them when it got all Dixiefied and Trumpified.

To me, the change is most dramatically seen in the election of Lauren Underwood. A 32-year-old black woman wins in those edge suburbs and cornfields? Blows my mind.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:56 am
I don’t agree. Not that JB ran poorly or anything, but Rauner and Trump changed the map.

Comment by Concerned Observer Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:58 am
Other statewide Democratic candidates got more votes than Pritzker: Mendoza, Raoul, Frerichs, so it was more than Pritzker and his money. Rauner and Trump had a lot to do with it, as did the candidates themselves. Any one of these would have apparently cleaned Rauner’s clock, money or not.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:09 am
I think Rauner changed the map.

Comment by NoGifts Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:15 am
As others have said, Rauner changed the dynamic, as did Trump.

Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:16 am
Some very important factors to consider looking at this map;

Trump alienated the traditional GOP.

Rauner was terribly unliked, and considered awful to Republicans.

Pritzker has field offices everywhere, and with VBM, maximized the disinfranchised.

New voters were not this new Rauner/Trump circle of voters.

The collars, and pockets downstate, the spreads downstate, the above, with ginned up anti-Trump/Rauner/GOP… it’s a credit to Dems and Pritzker’s Crew to have these results, as they are… results driven by hard work.

I’ll wait to see where the ILGOP turns to rebuild again.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:16 am
The overall point is correct, but I’m not impressed with this article, Rich. Quinn got less than 47% of the vote in 2010. Rauner got barely 50% in 2014. It needs some fact checking.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:23 am
I believe Trump had more to do than Rauner with the change.

Comment by Steve Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:47 am
I mostly agree with the growing consensus that Rauner and Trump changed the map. And it might well snap back in 4 years.

That being said, JB’s decision to organize everywhere certainly didn’t hurt.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:49 am
===I believe Trump had more to do than Rauner with the change.===

Rauner didn’t help… himself or others…

A poll of Rauner’s favorables, September, 2018

===The poll found 23.9 percent of respondents had an overall favorable view of Rauner and 52.4 percent had an overall unfavorable view of him.===

There was no stopgap or wall to stop Trump or Rauner from each other.

The Raunerism and Trump allowed a snowballing that people shunned the GOP, finding few reasons to support Rauner, his ticket, the suburban congresscritters, the GA candidates… going even into county races…

No buffer to stop. Trump and Rauner buried the GOP

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:54 am
What were the biggest reasons for the change in the map in the suburbs?

Trump- especially the SALT change.

Spending 30 million dollars than any candidate for Governor in US history. The previous record was California that is 3X the size of Illinois.

Steriogenics

Running on shifting the tax burden to rich people with the false promise that it will allow for more spending and will solve the budget crisis without any negative repercussions.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:58 am
Pritzker (and democrats nationally) benefited from a map changed significantly by Trump. That “new” map was copied all across the country with suburbs moving from red or purple to blue.

Comment by That One Guy Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 11:19 am
JB did change the map but he was helped along the way by Rauner and Trump. A republican governor in Illinois has to hold there own in the City and Cook. Almost from day one Rauner demonized that part of the state making it easy for JB to pull a huge plurality out of there. You can’t make it up downstate.

Comment by Tired Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 11:57 am
I would not put Trump and Rauner together. Rauner distanced himself greatly from Trump. But I do agree that it was Rauner who changed the map. Republicans who did vote for him, voted for the party, not the man. Others simply couldn’t stomach it, and under voted. Truly a lesson in poor strategies, starting from day one.

Comment by x Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:08 pm
It didn’t help that Hultgren committed political malpractice on a massive scale.

Roskam campaigned hard. Hultgren mailed it in on a slow boat.

But what if she’s there in 20? Do the D eliminate a district with her in it ? 😆😆

Comment by Fav Human Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:09 pm
===Steriogenics===

Sterigenics didn’t tube Roskam. C’mon. And the plant is in Sen. John Curran’s district. Know him? The only one of four suburban Republicans targeted for defeat who survived.

Spare me the lame excuses.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:09 pm
LP, you’re too modest. Don’t forget about that great Rauner record and messaging machine. Certainly a big factor in changing the map.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:13 pm
Would be interesting to know for the regions that flipped blue what previous investment levels were for campaigns vs. what Pritzker invested in terms of paid staff, local Dem party resources, etc. If his investment level holds at a higher amount, perhaps building out the Dem party infrastructure is for real. IL GOP may be in even bigger trouble than I realized.

Comment by Veil of Ignorance Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:13 pm
===Spending 30 million dollars than any candidate for Governor in US history. The previous record was California that is 3X the size of Illinois.===

Yeah, I’ve been saying that for a while.

Unlike you, I acknowledge, unlike in California, it worked here.

To be like California…

…Pritzker woulda had to have lost

Guess that “Rauner failed” mantra worked. You admit as much.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:19 pm
As much as Rauner was a disaster as Governor, it’s noteworthy that the AG race spread was 12 points - a race the GOP vigorously contested. IL is becoming like New Jersey where the base GOP vote is low 40s, the ceiling barely above that. May just reflect the nationwide phenom of votes hardening along partisan lines.

Comment by DarkHorse Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:41 pm
===IL is becoming like===

Stop.

This was a midterm election with an unpopular Republican president. Four years ago, Bruce Rauner won and so did Topinka. If she had lived, she probably would’ve won (if she ran). We might have a Democratic president in two years. The GOP is gonna be hurting for a long time in the General Assembly, but it could still come back statewide.

IOW, one election does not a trend make.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:47 pm
What Rich said… and this…

Illinois is not, and is nothing like New Jersey in the political landscape of states.

New Jersey is neither a population hub, nor an agricultural leader.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:50 pm
I’m surprised the counties with university voted Red.

Comment by Mama Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:30 pm
“I’m surprised the counties with university voted Red.”

Champaign County, DeKalb (NIU), and Jackson (SIU) turned blue, Coles (Eastern) and McDonough (WIU) both a lighter shade of red.

Comment by Independent Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:44 pm
Trump clearly changed the map in the suburbs and a couple of university counties to the detriment of the GOP in 2018, but the idea that ‘Rauner changed the map’ is off a bit. In fact, it could be argued that it was/is a combination of Quinn (for the worse) and Pritzker (for the better with his message and money) that changed it for the Dems downstate. It wasn’t that long ago that the Dems won counties like Fulton and Rock Island.

Comment by Hyperbolic Chamber Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:48 pm
Folks shouldn’t wed themselves the the crazy notion that one factor determined the outcome. Obviously Bruce Rauner was a disastrous governor who alienated both Ds and Rs. And yea, Trump was a big undertow. But you cannot ignore two things. 1) JB’s infrastructure and VBM program were directly responsible for dozens of marginal Democrats at various levels of government being elected. That’s not because of Rauner and Trump. And 2) JB got almost 800,000 more votes than Quinn with a turnout that looked strikingly like a presidential year. That’s also in part because of the machine they built.

Not sure why folks want to deny him credit for running a great race, but he ran a great race and the results can be seen up and down the ballot.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:54 pm
Hultgren? who was that

Comment by IL14 resident Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 2:42 pm
Keep in mind he spent a ton of money, benefited from Sam McCann pulling a lot of conservative voters, and Rauner had an approval rating in the 20’s.

Comment by An American Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 4:06 pm
“one election does not a trend make…”

Right-o! The Republicans swept in 1994, but the Democrats made gains within two years.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 4:33 pm
===Champaign County, DeKalb (NIU), and Jackson (SIU) turned blue, Coles (Eastern) and McDonough (WIU) both a lighter shade of red.

McLean as well with a lighter shade of red and it was a deep red county not all that long ago.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 7:08 pm
The VAN didn’t hurt either.

Comment by A 400lb. Guy on a bed Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 8:06 pm
@ArchPundit: True. Not sure how I missed that one having once lived there over a decade.

Comment by Independent Friday, Dec 7, 18 @ 6:48 am
Turns out Art Jones is about the upper limit for white supremacy for the bulk of Illinois’s population.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Dec 7, 18 @ 7:58 am