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Mendoza poll has bad news for Preckwinkle

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* Polling memo…

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: January 16, 2019
RE: NEW POLL RESULTS: Susana Mendoza solidifies likely run-off win in race for Mayor of Chicago

Recent poll results clearly point to Susana Mendoza as a frontrunner in the crowded field for Mayor. Toni Preckwinkle has seen a significant dip in favorability and a clear drop in vote share, while Bill Daley has failed to move his vote share in both the multi-candidate and head-to-head ballots. Given Mendoza’s name ID advantage, top vote-getting status in a multi-candidate race, and significant lead in run-off scenarios with either Preckwinkle or Daley, Mendoza continues to be well-positioned to become the next Mayor of Chicago.

Key findings from a recent citywide survey of 600 likely 2019 municipal voters conducted by Global Strategy Group are as follows.

KEY FINDINGS:

• Voters’ opinions of Preckwinkle have taken a negative turn. Since December, Preckwinkle’s net favorability has dropped 26 points. Once +16 (December 2018: 47% favorable/31% unfavorable, 78% familiar), she is now underwater at -10 (January 2019: 36% fav/46% unfav, 82% fam).

• Preckwinkle’s support has dwindled along with her favorability. In December, Preckwinkle held the lead in the multi-candidate race with 19% of the vote, with Mendoza in second with 11%. But Preckwinkle has lost her edge and is now tied with Mendoza for the top spot at 11%. Daley remains in third place with 9%, seeing little change in his vote share since December (Dec. 2018: Daley 8%), despite a significant investment in advertising. The remaining eight candidates trail him.

• Mendoza surges past Preckwinkle in a head-to-head. In a run-off scenario, Mendoza leads Preckwinkle by 13 points (Jan. 2019: Mendoza 43%/Preckwinkle 30%), significantly increasing her slight December lead (Dec. 2018: Mendoza 39%/Preckwinkle 38%).

• Mendoza continues to top Daley. Daley’s multi-candidate margin has yet to improve since December, and he has been unable to gain any ground against Mendoza in a head-to-head. Mendoza’s December lead (Dec. 2018: Mendoza 46%/Daley 31%) is virtually unchanged (Jan 2018: Mendoza 45%/Daley 30%).

So, it’s not that Mendoza has boosted her own first round numbers, it’s that Preckwinkle appears to be dropping like a rock.

* Methodology…

Global Strategy Group conducted two citywide surveys between December 10th and December 13th, 2018 and between January 11th and January 15th, 2019 among 600 likely 2019 Chicago Municipal Election voters. Both surveys have a margin of error of +/-4.0%. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented in both polls based on past voter turnout statistics.

54 percent of respondents were reached via their mobile phones.

The headline is a bit of a joke, but, to be clear, this is a well-respected firm. Global Strategy Group has been used by JB Pritzker, Planned Parenthood Illinois Action PAC, Nancy Rotering, Anita Alvarez, Pat Quinn and Rahm Emanuel, among others. Pritzker paid the firm a whopping $2.9 million since getting into the race, so they must have something going for them.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:12 pm

Comments

Well, of course Mendoza’s poll has bad news for her chief rival, lol.

That being said, it’s hardly surprising that Preckwinkle is dropping since she got pretty well implicated in the Burke mess. And with her comms shop getting caught a few times now playing monkey business with the press, she’s probably running out of benefits of the doubt.

But in a large field, everything will remain fluid up until Election Day, and if Mendoza doesn’t start growing her own vote share, she won’t win.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:20 pm
Would be nice to see how the 8% Preckwinkle lost in the first round is being distributed amongst the rest of the field.

Comment by chi Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:21 pm
Did she leave Chico out again for a reason?

Comment by Anon Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:26 pm
Legitimate question: Any theories on why Preckwinkle’s favorability has dropped so much in a month? I’m having trouble identifying what could have caused it.

Comment by PoliChi Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:28 pm
If voters leave Preckwinkle over the Burke connection, those same voters aren’t going to Mendoza. It’s not really clear where they went in this poll and maybe the shifted to undecided. Mendoza should be worried about Daley overtaking her with his big pile of cash.

Comment by TopHatMonocle Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:30 pm
==Any theories on why Preckwinkle’s favorability has dropped so much in a month?==

Burke seems the most likely answer.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:33 pm
===I’m having trouble identifying what could have caused it===

Ed Burke, intense backlash over her first TV ad, etc.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:33 pm
There’s a reason why Preckwinkle has been struggling to change the conversation - it’s this. There are a lot of ward polls out showing her losing steam in african american communities as well. And what’s also interesting is what the Sun Times pointed out re Daley - despite all the cash he’s put on the air he hasn’t moved. He’s got nowhere to go because no one wants another Daley in city hall.

Comment by Shytown Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:37 pm
===etc.===

The CTU endorsement, the proposed tax on Uber/Lyft, etc.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:40 pm
I will vote for Mendoza. She has been a great Comptroller. I would never vote for Daley, no explanation needed. Preckwinkle lost all credibility when she brought back the Stoger tax when she promised to get rid of it to get elected. By the way, a supporter of hers came to my door and got mad when I stated that I was not a supporter and that I should “get informed” when was the worst thing that you could say to someone who never missed an election in over 40 years and took a bus from college to register to vote after turning 18.

The arrogance of Preckwinkle and her supporters is enough to lose my vote. Also, when I stated that I did not like that she tried to get Mendoza kicked off the ballot, I was told, “that is just the Chicago way”, very wrong and so no vote from me.

My second choice is Willy Wilson.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:51 pm
Bill Daley might be in better shape. Are we days away from Barack and Michelle formally endorsing Bill Daley? Those endorsements could mean a lot in this race.

Comment by steve Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:51 pm
===Are we days away from Barack and Michelle formally endorsing Bill Daley?===

On which planet do you live? Daley was basically run out of DC.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:53 pm
Yeah, Chief of Staff William Daley does not have the cachet Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel had in 2010.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 1:56 pm
Not surprising, Prekwinkle is very unlikable and is not a popular County President.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:01 pm
Meh. Long ways away from election day. Having the Burke’s host your wedding at their house and such will catch up to Mendoza by then. She’s danced with the devil too so her basking in Toni’s Burke connection is dangerous.

Comment by Flat Bed Ford Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:01 pm
Not sure if this is a factor, but some are blaming Preckwinkle for the rise in crime in the city as a result of policies to lower the jail population by lowering bails or I-bonding everyone out and her hand picked prosecutor reducing felonies to misdemeanors or refusing to bring charges against low level arrestees.

Comment by Practical Politics Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:01 pm
Bill Daley has raised a lot of money so far. He may well wound up in the top 2 of round 1.

Comment by steve Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:04 pm
Anonymous at 2:01 - Do better, unlikable is a sexist remark. Talk about all the Burke stuff, LaQuan McDonald, the arrogance of her campaign, etc. if you want to make an actual point.

Comment by Stark Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:07 pm
Steve, if Daley make the runoff, the other candidate might as well start measuring the drapes on the 5th floor.

Comment by TominChicago Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:10 pm
Wait, what? How is it sexist? Trump is completely unlikable.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:12 pm
Also important to keep in mind Amara Enyia’s campaign continues to build itself up, which is drawing left support that toni is relying on to stay competitive against mendoza (who is clearly using a more centrist “law and order” approach in her campaign)

Comment by tgk Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:40 pm
=Wait, what? How is it sexist? Trump is completely unlikable.= And I recall the term being used many, many times to describe our recently departed governor.

As far as Preckwinkle being unlikable, I don’t really have a view. I do think that over time she’s shown herself to be a bit of a hypocrite by demonstrating behaviors she often condemns.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 2:55 pm
Im still waiting for Mendoza to say how she will pay the increasing pension liabilities. As well as explain why she assisted Burke all these years?

Comment by Ouch Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:14 pm
== (who is clearly using a more centrist “law and order” approach in her campaign) == how exactly?

Comment by Shytown Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:16 pm
Pundent, exactly that’s why Prekwinkle is unlikable.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:20 pm
Susana going above and beyond to tie to Toni to Ed Burke when Burke has been Susana’s primary juice for two decades is going to come back to bite her.

The voters will begin to see this.

Comment by Karma Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:46 pm
===The voters will begin to see this===

So far, nobody really has the money to run two ad tracks.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:47 pm
At the inaugural events it was interesting to see how Toni Preckwinkle was treated. She is a very powerful politician with strong potential of becoming mayor. But I never saw anyone lining up to meet her or greeting her with enthusiasm. It’s hard to compare because she was being inaugurated, but there was more excitement around Susan’s Mendoza.

Comment by City Guy Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:53 pm
Karma, fixed it for you
== By taking $116k from a Burke fundraiser at his home and hiring his son, Toni went above and beyond to tie to herself to Ed Burke but Burke has actually been Chico’s primary juice for two decades is going to come back to bite him. ==

Comment by Shytown Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:54 pm
Seems like all the candidates with high name id are underwater with their favorabilities leaving a lane for a dark horse to make the run-off particularly if turnout is high.

I still think Preckwinkle makes the run-off as she consolidates the Democratic Ward Organizations, SEIU, and CTU voting blocks.

Comment by Lakeview Lou Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 3:54 pm
==Seems like all the candidates with high name id are underwater with their favorabilities leaving a lane for a dark horse to make the run-off particularly if turnout is high.==

My guess is Enyia is on the rise. Mendoza mentioned her as the candidate she would choose as her running mate at the WGN forum, so it’s clear she has taken notice of how the city has responded to Enyia’s campaign. Once we take a look at how the rest of the field performs in this Global Strategy poll I wouldn’t be surprised to see her at 8%.

Comment by Deep One Dave Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 4:06 pm
Does it really matter?
Isn’t everyone running just going to find a way to raise taxes across the board?

Comment by DuPage Bard Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 4:20 pm
Preckwinkle’s premise of how “she’s not from the machine” is laughable.

Was she fighting party bosses in the early 90s? Sure. But has she spent the last 10+ years using the same destructive tactics as those “bosses” she alludes to, to amass that same level of power? Yep. I can deal with more taxes–blatant hypocrisy though, I’ll pass.

Mayor Mendoza has a nice ring to it.

Comment by CPS Eagle Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 4:59 pm
Too many candidates in the race, Preckwinkle is running for #1-2. not worrying about the runoff, do the things to win 1st or 2nd. I.E Mcdonald ad.
the African American vote is 30% of the city,
she keeps her complaint against Brown in full force, Brown gets tossed.
Preckwinkle carries 85% of the African American vote.
she comes in 1 or 2 with 18-20% of the vote.

THEN she shifts tactics to deal with whomever her opponent is.
Advantages:
has a few million dollars now and will get more
has CTU support
has CFL support
has SEIU support,
is the cook county Dem chairman
NO OTHER candidate has those advantages.

Comment by CCrider Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 5:08 pm
Enyia can make some noise down the stretch. She will do well along the Red and Blue line neighborhoods especially if Chance keeps writing big checks.

Comment by Lakeview Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 5:16 pm
Preckwinkle is not going to get 85% of the AA vote in the primary but the runoff for sure. She will get 50-60% of the AA vote which puts her at a solid 15 percentish. The last CTU pol had both Enyia and Wilson around 7 and 6 points.

She will get another 5-10% need from other demographics which puts her in the runoff.

Comment by Lakeview Lou Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 5:33 pm
CC, no caps allowed here. Enjoy the irony and turn down the volume.

Comment by Sonny Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 5:58 pm
===I’m having trouble identifying what could have caused it===

Ed Burke, intense backlash over her first TV ad, etc.–

She’s still running the spot. Saw it today.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 6:13 pm
Daley’s put out the most significant policy proposals and has the leadership to run the city. Head and shoulders ahead on leadership. We’ll see if they can communicate that to voters.

Comment by west wing Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 6:28 pm
Toni only got 62% of vote against Bob Fioretti in 8th & 17th wards in 2018 primary….not exactly mayoral numbers. Those with long memories realize she eliminated the Harold Washington party by taking out Tim Evans for the Daley’s….Ben Franklin is crying like the Native American in the 70’s commercial…

Comment by Glass half full Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 6:52 pm
Unsurprising, given her superior numbers within the city in November as compared to both JB’s and Toni’s

Comment by Anon Thursday, Jan 17, 19 @ 8:24 pm