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Clearly, mapmaking is a power that Madigan has no intention of ceding. So how to go forth? First, lawmakers can stop leaving the fight to others; that includes the U.S. Supreme Court. Those applauding the court’s decision to again hear a pair of gerrymandering cases this term should be careful what they wish for. The court’s new makeup has court observers worrying that the majority will protect, not reject, partisan maps.

That means Pritzker and Illinois lawmakers must take the matter out of justices’ hands by crafting a constitutional amendment that creates an independent commission to draw districts that let voters choose their political leaders and not the other way around, as well as answers the constitutional objections raised in past court challenges.

They must then demand en masse that Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton call identical bills — without amendments — for a vote. And Pritzker must sign it.

Um, governors don’t sign constitutional amendments. And governors who publicly and loudly demand things from Madigan don’t succeed. Perhaps the editorial board missed the last four years.

As I’ve said many times before, you don’t need a constitutional amendment to get a fairly drawn map. The best leverage Pritzker has is to stick to his March, 2018 pledge to veto any map “that is in any way drafted or created by legislators, political party leaders and/or their staffs or allies.” If their super-majorities hold up, the Democratic leaders will try to override a map veto in 2021. Then it’ll be up to Pritzker to pick off as many members as he can to prevent the override.

But, think about it, if the Democratic leaders do wind up overriding a governor’s veto of an unfair map, there’s no way in Hades their members would’ve ever approved a constitutional amendment to remove that power from them and no amount of yelling at the clouds will do any good. The only leverage Pritzker would have at that point would be to threaten to do something drastic like shut down the government or something, and we’ve all seen how that turns out.

* News-Gazette editorial…

CHANGE Illinois wants legislation or a proposed state constitutional amendment that will strip legislative leaders of their map-drawing authority and transfer it to a bipartisan commission directed to draw maps without regard to voting patterns. That way, more voters will have a real choice on Election Day.

But Madigan is a ruthless political tactician who is determined to retain gerrymandering. Using the courts, he’s twice defeated efforts to put a proposed Fair Map constitutional amendment to a public vote.

Further, one ought not get too excited about Pritzker’s anti-gerrymandering pledge because, unfortunately, campaign promises don’t count for much.

When he was governor, Democrat Pat Quinn made the same pledge Pritzker did, only to meekly sign Madigan’s gerrymandered 2011 maps into law.

Quinn flip-flopped on a lot of things. For instance, he said he wouldn’t sign any tax increase above a single percentage point and signed a two-point hike. And Madigan knocked the remap amendments off the ballot with ease because they were Rube Goldberg contraptions which clearly exceeded the constitutional limits of what can and what cannot be placed before voters.

* From ILGOP Chairman Tim Schneider…

An overwhelming majority of Illinois voters supports independent redistricting reform, but Speaker Madigan and President Cullerton have, through lawsuits and obstruction in the legislature, blocked all efforts to let the people have their voices heard. Governor Pritzker must follow through on his fair map pledge, work around Madigan and Cullerton, and empower rank-and-file Democrats to stand up to their leaders and enact meaningful change. Republican lawmakers are ready to work with Democrats on this critical issue to finally get the job done. It’s time for the people to truly be able to choose their representatives, not the other way around.

The Republicans have 44 members in the House and 19 in the Senate. That’s a very long way from the 71 and 36 required to pass a constitutional amendment over the objections of Democratic Party leaders.

I support fairly drawn maps, so it’s fine to keep up the heat, but people should retain some perspective and try to learn from the failures of the past. And one of the biggest failures is relying on frontal assaults against Madigan. They don’t work. They only make him stronger.

* Related…

* Sun-Times editorial: In the glow of victory, Governor, listen to the GOP on gerrymandering

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 9:59 am

Comments

Crocodile tears.

If Durkin had a majority i wouldnt even want to imagine the mess of a map his team would create.

Why is Madigan being singled out for partisanship? It seems like certain editorial boards like to pretend that the ILGOP leadership is somehow different.. Hmmm….

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:06 am
=but people should retain some perspective=
Yes! Cannot believe the number of Central Illinois people who think fair maps = Speaker Durkin. With fair maps this is still a Blue state.

Comment by Amyone Remember Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:11 am
The 2011 map passed judicial scrutiny. It wasn’t gerrymandered, according to the courts.

Comment by Moist von Lipwig Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:13 am
I’m curious what people think a “fair” map would look like. If I understand correctly, it is envisioned to be a map drawn based upon geography rather than political make up, which would thereby create more competitive districts. But, in practice, I don’t see how that would work. How would you, say, draw a district in southern Illinois based on geography that would be competitive for Democrats? The fact is, people more and more tend to live near people with similar ideological and political preferences. Madigan’s maps have been drawn to create more competitive districts (albeit with a slight edge to Democrats) so he can play in more districts. A “fair” map might therefore actually have the effect of creating fewer competitive district. This would push the parties further towards their wings because the primary election would be the only ones that matter. I don’t see how this is any better that what is being complained of, if you are seeking a map that moderates the legislature. To me, the better plan to achieve than goal would be to repeal Pat Quinn’s cutback amendment and bring back proportional representation.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:13 am
Let’s be honest here. JB has a limited amount of goodwill and a limited amount of time for his honeymoon with the General Assembly. The State has lots of pressing needs; probably #1 is more revenue. JB is going to need every bit of his influence to get a graduated income tax amendment on the 2020 ballot.

Does JB really want to die now on the hill of fair maps? Politically speaking, it would be better to get some cooperation with the GA under his belt first. After all, JB does hold veto power if the maps are awful … so why waste currently limited political capital? Better to get to where you have some credibility (and chits) with MJM first.

If you have to, make a future deal on a fairer map process after this cycle; that way the change will be less threatening. Better to slowly advance than make no progress. Politics is the possible; Rauner never learned that.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:18 am
== long way from 71 and 36 ==

And getting enough Dems to reach 71 and 36 gets all the more challenging when you consider black members (and maybe to a lesser extent Latinos) are going to be vehemently opposed. No state legislative map in the nation helps ensure minority representation better than Illinois’. The “geographic integrity” goal of the “fair map” proposal is an existential threat to that.

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:20 am
== The 2011 map passed judicial scrutiny. It wasn’t gerrymandered, according to the courts. ==

The 2011 IL map is far less gerrymandered than GOP drawn maps in WI, PA, MI, IN, SC, VA, & OH.

Unless the IL GOP is willing to denounce Project Redmap, I see no reason to take these calls seriously.

Anyway, Rich Miller is 100% spot on when he points out that attacking Madigan head on typically ends in failure.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:22 am
===typically ends in failure===

Always.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:22 am
–The best leverage Pritzker has is to stick to his March, 2018 pledge to veto any map “that is in any way drafted or created by legislators, political party leaders and/or their staffs or allies.”–

Hadn’t seen that specific language before.

Who does Pritzker expect to draw the map? Even Durkin’s proposal envisions partisan participation.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:22 am
Great Post, Rich.

The ILGOP are barely relevant, and Rauner’s taint to the brand, coupled with POTUS still around isn’t going to help.

It’s curious that Schneider opens with “overwhelming majority”… when his party is overwhelmingly in the minority, and it’s probably not going to change anytime soon.

Fair maps now will in no way bring back, resurrect, or rebuild the Raunerite GOP.

The smartest play was holding Pritzker as a partner…see what I did there Mr. Schneider… hold… Pritzker… not accountable… hold as a partner… in this “battle”

Hold as a partner, now what does that mean?

It means not writing or speaking so utterly ignorantly to the issue that words sound like you’re attacking your possible lone Dem ally… the governor.

“The Illinois Republicans are looking forward to working with Governor Pritzker and his vision of fair maps. Only by working together can Illinois find the way outside partisan maps with a bipartisan partnership to get the fairest maps, and maps that people will have faith that politics wasn’t its sole purpose”

The old Raunerite that is Mr. Schneider has no clue how to work when there is no leverage, perceived or otherwise.

It’s embarrassing. As long as Mr. Schneider is the chairman, the ILGOP will as irrelevant as its 44 and 19 seat totals in the General Assembly.

I’d usually say… “do better” or “be better”…

But, as pathetic as it is, this is Mr. Schneider thinking he’s doing… better.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:27 am
===The Republicans have 44 members in the House and 19 in the Senate.====
It is pathetic that there are more House Dems than there are total GOP members of both chambers. But they still have almost 36% of the seats and Rauner only got 39% of the vote. Add in McCann though and there is 43% statewide for GOP. Independent drawing of map might get them off super minority status but nowhere near control of a chamber.

Comment by Been There Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:31 am
===But, think about it, if the Democratic leaders do wind up overriding a governor’s veto of an unfair map, there’s no way in Hades their members would’ve ever approved a constitutional amendment to remove that power from them and no amount of yelling at the clouds will do any good.===

To Dems screaming “fair maps”, to Republicans, conservatives, screaming “fair maps”… indies now fed up with both parties screaming… “fair maps”…

That snippet above… if you don’t fully grasp the reality of those words, the politics to them, there will not be enough clouds to yell at to feel better.

The purposeful lacking of embracing the politics of how votes go… that’s why things lack the ability to “find a way”, as the reality being ignored is the biggest stumbling block.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:42 am
We politically naive voters might think that having primaries in which the voter is not required to declare allegiance to a political could be even more fair than a “fair map.”

Comment by My New Handle Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:44 am
…to a political party…I meant to say.

Comment by My New Handle Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:46 am
===But Madigan is a ruthless political tactician==

Because demonizing Mike Madigan has always worked so well.

Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 10:53 am
Last point…

If you are part of the Illinois Republican Party apparatus, a member of the state central committee, elected GA member… since there are ZERO statewide officeholders I’ll skip that…

Rauner burned down the ILGOP… and here “you” are… still running “his” demanded playbook.

Why?

At some point, y’all need to look outside Raunerism branded thoughts and look to political responses that make the ILGOP something people will see as… relevant… in thoughts, strategy, policy, and politics.

Where o where are the leaders I know I crave?

Where?

It’s things like this move… it keeps me (speaking only for me) away from thinking that this party can rebuild.

I’m trying to help, but it’s not helping. I’m trying to show failures, so that silly mistakes can stop… yet… here we are.

At what point do y’all want to hit a bottom to build? Right now, you’re just falling further.

It’s time to move on from Raunerism. You know it’s true. Why all the waiting, and appeasing, and following his playbook?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:03 am
===Who does Pritzker expect to draw the map?===

I wouldn’t be surprised if he appoints a trusted (by him) group of people to come up with a map based on best practices for fairness or something similar. Why not propose an alternative to try to win over the middle and make whatever map the Democratic leaders propose look nakedly partisan (assuming it will be egregiously partisan).

Proposing a moderate map would at least make it somewhat easier to pick off rank and file legislators to uphold a veto. Let them see an alternative map and then he’d only need to pick off 5-6 Dems (if all the HGOPs go along).

Regardless of my speculation, this is THE showdown to watch and we’re still a long way from the opening bell. Too soon to say how it’ll play out.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:07 am
I’ve never seen a more brutal, personal attack on a politician that what MJM went thru under Bruce Rauner. He still survived. I said before Rauner took office that while you might want to choke him and many do, you still have to work with him if you want to get anything done. Hopefully JB’s people understand that.

Comment by Ginhouse Tommy Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:25 am
And in exchange for (in their eyes) “fair maps”…is the ILGOP willing to put some votes on a tax hike? ::rolls eyes::

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:27 am
Proposing a moderate map would at least make it somewhat easier to pick off rank and file legislators to uphold a veto. Let them see an alternative map and then he’d only need to pick off 5-6 Dems (if all the HGOPs go along).

5 or 6 Dems???? Must be that new math. By the old math, he’d need 27 in the house AND 17 in the Senate. That’s a lot of picking off.

Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:29 am
And Pritzker really wants a ‘fair map’???

Comment by Nonbeleiver Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:34 am
== Add in McCann ==

Sam is history …

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:38 am
For those who may not have ever read it, here is the passage from our Constitution on redistricting. Note the entity charged with the task.

SECTION 3. LEGISLATIVE REDISTRICTING
(a) Legislative Districts shall be compact, contiguous
and substantially equal in population. Representative
Districts shall be compact, contiguous, and substantially
equal in population.
(b) In the year following each Federal decennial census
year, the General Assembly by law shall redistrict the
Legislative Districts and the Representative Districts.
If no redistricting plan becomes effective by June 30 of
that year, a Legislative Redistricting Commission shall be
constituted not later than July 10. The Commission shall
consist of eight members, no more than four of whom shall be
members of the same political party.
The Speaker and Minority Leader of the House of
Representatives shall each appoint to the Commission one
Representative and one person who is not a member of the
General Assembly. The President and Minority Leader of the
Senate shall each appoint to the Commission one Senator and
one person who is not a member of the General Assembly.
The members shall be certified to the Secretary of State
by the appointing authorities. A vacancy on the Commission
shall be filled within five days by the authority that made
the original appointment. A Chairman and Vice Chairman shall
be chosen by a majority of all members of the Commission.
Not later than August 10, the Commission shall file with
the Secretary of State a redistricting plan approved by at
least five members.
If the Commission fails to file an approved redistricting
plan, the Supreme Court shall submit the names of two
persons, not of the same political party, to the Secretary of
State not later than September 1.
Not later than September 5, the Secretary of State
publicly shall draw by random selection the name of one of
the two persons to serve as the ninth member of the
Commission.
Not later than October 5, the Commission shall file with
the Secretary of State a redistricting plan approved by at
least five members.
An approved redistricting plan filed with the Secretary
of State shall be presumed valid, shall have the force and
effect of law and shall be published promptly by the
Secretary of State.
The Supreme Court shall have original and exclusive
jurisdiction over actions concerning redistricting the House
and Senate, which shall be initiated in the name of the
People of the State by the Attorney General.
(Source: Amendment adopted at general election November 4,
1980.)

Comment by Hawkeye Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:38 am
The House GOP proposal would not result anything close to “fair” maps. Far from it.

Comment by low level Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 11:53 am
–We politically naive voters might think that having primaries in which the voter is not required to declare allegiance to a political party could be even more fair than a “fair map.”–

I’m pretty sure you just have to say what primary you want to vote in, not “declare allegiance.”

And if the next time, you want to vote in a different primary, no problem.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 12:06 pm
== Add in McCann ==

A lot of McCann’s support was from conservative union members; you can’t assume they’d all fall in line behind a Republican candidate. After all, when offered a Republican, they chose McCann.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 12:19 pm
First, it doesn’t matter what constitutional amendment is crafted for a petition: the Dem majority on the IL Supreme Court saved their bullet by refusing twice to rule whether it’s even possible to put a redistricting up for popular vote.

So…Rich is right - the only thing people who don’t want their voting power minimized to the lowest amount possible by MJM (at present, others in the future) is to pressure JB and see if you can get others to make the same pledge. Or in the unlikely event the SCOTUS provides a path, sue.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 12:31 pm
Regarding “non-partisan committee” to draw maps. So, people with no interest in politics are to draw political maps? And where do you find those non-political people? The best way is to admit that everyone except the totally disengaged has a political viewpoint and craft legislation that ensures that all parties above a certain threshold, have an equal stake in the commission.

Comment by Streamwood Retiree Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 12:42 pm
How would this “independent commission” to draw the map work? Would people be selected randomly like jury duty?

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 12:48 pm
Simple solutions are neither simple or solutions.

One difficulty that needs to be covered is minority representation. If you draw the maps the way thebwhite majoroty of voters are proposing, you cna marginalize minority blocks so that they never have a candidate or a voice.

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 1:13 pm
Da Big Bad Wolf - California is the model for the type of commission most consider for reform in Illinois. It uses two rounds of selection to get a balanced board to approve a map.

Comment by muon Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 1:26 pm
==It uses two rounds of selecting==
So who is doing the “selecting”. And why should we think the selected will be unbiased?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 1:36 pm
Anonymous 1:36 was me.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 1:45 pm
==So who is doing the “selecting”.==
In California the State Auditor selects a panel of three auditors to review and interview candidates for the commission. The candidates are reduced to a pool of 20 Democrats, 20 Republicans, and 20 unaffiliated with either party.

The legislative leaders in California then reduce each pool to 12 and names are randomly selected from each pool to provide 3 Democrats 3, Republicans, and 2 from the unaffiliated pool. The 8 selected panelists then select 2 more from each pool to complete the 11-member panel.

==And why should we think the selected will be unbiased?==
There’s no guarantee that the commissioners will be unbiased. However, the maps produced by their commission in 2011 kept communities of interest together while preserving minority voting rights. Results this decade suggest that the California plan has proven to be more responsive to the will of the voters than the plans approved by the legislature in prior decades.

Comment by muon Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 2:30 pm
JB could care less about the map …He can fund any candidate he wants or help MJM and Cullerton do so. Map will never be an issue as long as he dumps millions into the coffers to help the Dems in the GA.

Comment by NorthsideNoMore Wednesday, Jan 23, 19 @ 5:01 pm
The party with the second most votes, wants the party with the first most votes to turn on itself. This is two years away, 2020 election issue, or crying before the spanking

Comment by Rabid Thursday, Jan 24, 19 @ 7:06 am