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* Remember, these are growth rates, not growth…
Chart shows annual population growth rates for Illinois, neighboring states and the U.S. as a whole from 1990 to 2018: https://t.co/Yo2KCRsQ39 pic.twitter.com/iVwo7kT5hm
— The Civic Federation (@CivicFederation) February 19, 2019
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 1:45 pm
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At least we’re finally leading the nation in something.
Oh, wait…
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 1:50 pm
Yikes.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 1:56 pm
Benefits: relatively inexpensive housing.
Downside: weather and a State debt backlog that will probably ultimately be paid by the residents that stick around for that party.
Comment by California Guy Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 1:57 pm
So the rates continued to go down when the tax rate went back to per hike levels? That doesn’t match IPI propaganda
Comment by Morty Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:00 pm
Why aren’t we dedicating 100% of new marijuana revenue to the pensions?
People are leaving because taxes are going up and we have a huge pension crisis.
We don’t need new shiny programs. Dedicate ALL marijuana revenue to the pensions.
Comment by Josh Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:04 pm
What happened between 04 and 07 that caused that bump back up? Otherwise it seems like this has been at pretty steady decline since 1990.
Comment by Fixer Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:05 pm
Well that’s an easy fix, pointed out here all the time by anonymous commenters. Just have to outlaw taxes and minimum wage and unions and Speaker Madigan. All those African Americans who have left will flock back to the south and southwest sides of Chicago.
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:06 pm
The ranges are between decline and stagnation.
Overall, the United States’ fertility rate is below replacement level. Among the states, only two — Utah and South Dakota — are above replacement rates.
–The report also showed differences in total fertility rates by race: Among non-Hispanic white women, no states had a fertility rate above the replacement level; among non-Hispanic black women, 12 states did; and among Hispanic women, 29 states did.–
If population growth is going to drive economic growth, some might want to rethink their immigration stands.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/health/us-fertility-rate-replacement-cdc-study/index.html
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:08 pm
==So the rates continued to go down when the tax rate went back to per hike levels?==
The rates never went back to pre hike levels.
Looks like there was a pretty steep drop in 2013-2015, the first years the full impact of the 5% income tax hike took effect.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:11 pm
“Relatively inexpensive housing” - I disagree with this, particularly when talking about downstate Illinois.
The initial purchase price may be inexpensive, but the cost of ownership when you account for property taxes and lack of appreciation means that the total cost of ownership is very high.
If you buy a house in Springfield, and own it for 30 years, and you include only mortgage interest and taxes, but not maintenance, and if you sell that house 30 years later, youll likely get back less at closing than what you paid in total over that time period. In many places in a California, the price of a home is high, but so is the appreciation. If you own a house for 30 years and then Sell it, you’ll make a substantial profit.
Comment by Merica Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:14 pm
What the civic federation data misses is the growth rates by age cohort. Census data for Illinois shows a dramatic decline in the number of young people. Rauner’s disinvestment from higher education accelerated this outmigration as young people left for other state in droves.
Comment by Scamp640 Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:20 pm
Most of our neighbors have progressive income taxes with higher top rates than us. Even Kentucky’s new flat tax rate is slightly higher than ours.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:20 pm
To see that neighboring states have seen some improvement proves the weather, while a factor, isn’t a hurdle too high. We’ve got a lot more to offer here. This is a serious, but solvable trend that every person and every party should be interested in turning around.
If we collectively decide to, we can.
Comment by A guy Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:22 pm
There you go again Grandson, ignoring many of the high taxes in Illinois while pointing out our state income tax to neighboring states.
You’ve pounded that horse repeatedly.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:30 pm
We haven’t given Mike Madigan enough power to solve problems.
Comment by Steve Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:30 pm
Word, page 15 shows net birth minus death at half its 2007-08 level which as you mentioned is a large driver:
https://www.civicfed.org/sites/default/files/reportroadmapfy2020.pdf
Comment by njt Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:57 pm
High taxes to pay for high service levels are one thing, high taxes to pay for old bills and the credit card bill on pension holiday’s are another.
An even harder sell when coupled with a tolerance for quasi-legal graft.
Its not about price, its about value.
Comment by Ebenezer Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 2:57 pm
Comparing percentage change leads to misleading charts. Michigan had a big percentage fall, so they would have a big percentage rise — even though the percentage of increase is based on a substantially smaller number.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:01 pm
Lots of the leavers are takers. Another words, they take their city or state pensions and get out of dodge. I don’t blame them but it sure doesn’t help our states economy/
Comment by Bobio Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:05 pm
Wow, page 15 is startling. What happened from 2013 to 2014 to cause the large increase in negative net domestic migration?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:13 pm
Yes, Illinois is in a bad spot. But give JB time. We already have a $15 minimum wage and soon we could have marijuana and even a fair tax. Then you can see the investments we need to fix this problem.
Comment by Let’s solve this Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:19 pm
A $15 minimum wage is unlikely to help our population loss as downstate employers will reduce jobs and hours worked further pushing people out of state.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:23 pm
–Wow, page 15 is startling. What happened from 2013 to 2014 to cause the large increase in negative net domestic migration?–
Baby Boomers started retiring.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:36 pm
==Wow, page 15 is startling.==
You ain’t kidding. I would’ve guessed the cause was a decrease in international migration, but it’s been relatively constant for 10 years. Births minus deaths appears to be the main driver.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:38 pm
According to many, a lower population growth rate helps keep the pace of global warming down. Therefore, this is a good statistic. Someone needs to teach me how to show my google homework.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 3:38 pm
California Guy “Benefits: relatively inexpensive housing.”
= Falling property values
in many parts of the state…add increased property taxes to that, and some other states are looking better every day.
Comment by Tequila Mockingbird Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 4:11 pm
“Yes, Illinois is in a bad spot. But give JB time. We already have a $15 minimum wage and soon we could have marijuana and even a fair tax. Then you can see the investments we need to fix this problem.”
That’s the way to go, and the voters will support it or most of it.
The big problem is African-American outmigration. The last governor wanted to strip union rights and put African-Americans in an inferior position, so businesspeople would find it worthy to invest in them. People saw they’re being exploited, so they rejected this philosophy. The proof is in the votes.
The current governor is proposing a fair tax and property tax relief, in which the wealthiest will pay more of the tax burden. That apparently is overwhelmingly supported by African-Americans.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 4:51 pm
Most retirees are moving to warmer weather states or moving to be closer to their family. The younger ones are moving for jobs. There appears to be more construction jobs down south.
Comment by Mama Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 4:57 pm
We are going to lose 2 congressional seats when redistricting happens after the 2020 census.
Maybe that will wake everyone up that out migration really is happening, and is something to take seriously.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 5:04 pm
– What happened between 04 and 07 that caused that bump back up? –
That was all the federal agents moving to Illinois to investigate Blagojevich.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 5:19 pm
Well, if state government is solely responsible fir the chart we should ask Rod Blagojevich to come back.
Comment by Bigtwich Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 5:23 pm
Can’t say I know what to make of this, from a Moody’s Analytics report:
–Illinoisans are migrating mostly to Florida, Texas, Indiana and California, in that order, losing more than 20,000 people a year to those states. Inbound migration of 10,000 to 14,000 is greatest from Indiana, Texas, California, Missouri, Wisconsin and Florida.–
What’s with the pipeline of those moving to Illinois from Texas, California and Florida? Former residents moving back?
The full report is rather upbeat on the state economy, warning, however, that the state is beyond full employment now and needs more workers in low-wage sectors.
What’s that Econ 101 solution to a low-wage worker shortage, again?
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/moodys-sees-reason-optimism-over-illinois-economy?utm_source=breaking-news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20190218&utm_content=hero-headline
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 5:57 pm
Whats the solution…..
Legal immigration.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 6:15 pm
wordslinger - Another factor driving outmigration in 2013 was the recovery in housing prices to pre-recession levels. There may have been pent up demand to relocate prior to 2013, but to do so would cost too much due to depressed home prices. Once home prices recovered enough, that demand to move could be done without taking a serious loss on one’s home.
Comment by muon Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 7:20 pm
muon, but illinois is losing people now faster and faster.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 19, 19 @ 8:13 pm
Anonymous 8:13 pm. The net domestic outmigration is virtually unchanged in the last 3 or 4 years. During that time the increased losses in Illinois are primarily due to decreased births compared to deaths. The chart on page 15 of the report breaks down those factors.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Feb 20, 19 @ 7:43 am
Forty percent of Americans are over 44. Too many kids are up to their eyeballs in collage loan debt and are too broke to start a family. The USA simply can’t replace itself. This is a serious problem. The US should encourage people to immigrate here. We should declare a national emergency and use Pentagon money to pay people to come here, especially fertile young people.
Comment by Double Secret Probation Wednesday, Feb 20, 19 @ 9:10 am
40 % of Americans are over 44. Too many kids are up to their eyeballs in college debt, and are too broke to start a family. The USA simply can’t replace itself. This is a serious problem. The US should encourage people to immigrate here. We should declare a national emergency and use Pentagon money to pay people to come here, especially fertile young people.
Comment by Double secret probation Wednesday, Feb 20, 19 @ 9:12 am
Declining population should be embraced. Over the past several decades voters have proven that they don’t want to pay infrastructure and services for big populous state.
Comment by Blockedmore Wednesday, Feb 20, 19 @ 12:24 pm
Mangiare troppo sale può aumentare votre pressione sanguigna. Le individui con pressione alta hanno più probabilità di sviluppare malattie cardiache o di avere un ictus.
Comment by Cassaundra Appiah Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 6:27 am