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* Everyone saw headlines like these last week…
* Tuesday, February 26, 5:25 pm: Chicago On Pace For Record Low Turnout In Mayoral Election: Barring a late surge in voting, that puts Chicago on pace for a turnout of about 30 percent to 32 percent, the worst municipal election turnout since 2007, when the city set a record low of 33 percent turnout.
* Tuesday, February 26, 11:44pm: Chicago appears to set voting record for low turnout
* Wednesday, February 27, 11:05 am: Low voter turnout attributed to disillusionment with leaders, drop in interest from midterms: That anemic total ranks among the lowest turnout levels recorded in a city election since it was 33 percent in 2007, when Richard M. Daley won his sixth and final term.
* Wednesday, February 27, 6:22 pm: Too Many Candidates, Poor Youth Turnout Blamed for Low Vote Totals in Chicago
* Scott Kennedy, however, was urging caution…
Going out on a limb to predict that once all of the mail ballots are counted Chicago's turnout for today's election will be higher than the 34.03% from Feb 2015.https://t.co/C1p06ntoXl
— IL Election Data (@ILElectionData) February 26, 2019
* And he was right…
Despite all of the handwringing in the last 24 hours yesterday's turnout was a perfectly normal one. It wasn't anything special or historic, just ordinary for a modern Feb Chicago municipal and will likely finish higher than four years ago.https://t.co/z8Jwcm81hJ
— IL Election Data (@ILElectionData) February 27, 2019
Yesterday the Chicago Board of Elections added a number of late arriving mail ballots to their totals & now turnout is up to 35.2% making it the 2nd highest Chicago municipal general election turnout this century, trailing only 2011https://t.co/RvaCgAEvOyhttps://t.co/5nJlvKsMN4
— IL Election Data (@ILElectionData) March 2, 2019
* And those mail-in ballots are having an impact…
As more mail-in ballots from Tuesday’s election are counted, Ald. Roderick Sawyer (6th) has seen his already tenuous lead shrink even more.
Records from the Chicago Board of Elections show that, as of Friday, Sawyer — son of former Mayor Eugene Sawyer and head of the council’s Black Caucus — was holding onto 50.02 percent of the vote in the 6th Ward aldermanic race.
The combined tally of his two opponents — Richard Wooten and Deborah Foster-Bonner — was just four votes fewer than Sawyer’s 5,020 votes. Foster-Bonner was in second place, with more than 31 percent of the vote.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:03 am
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Also, notice that the headline is strictly qualified. There are a few things one should never listen to Kennedy about. Malört would be one of them.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:04 am
Early voting and voting by mail has significantly changed how voter turnout should be measured, gauged, and “figured” when it especially comes down to Election Day.
It’s like chasing pluses… “did they vote early, by mail, did they vote early today… “
Election Day actually begins when mail ballots can be mailed, when early voting begins, on the day the election has polls opened in the precincts… that’s the new “Election Day”, turnout is the gumbo of all three, and you can’t eat gumbo until all the ingredients are cooked.
Also, that tweeter…if you’re not checking it out, you’re losing out.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:10 am
There was never a good qualitative reason to expect substantially low turnout
Comment by PJ Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:13 am
Media outlets really need to figure out that it’s a new ballgame with mail-in ballots.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:32 am
If the press drank more Malort they probably would have seen this coming.
Comment by The Captain Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:00 am
Part of the problem is the media are desperate for some actual political news to cover on Election Day before the polls close and vote counting starts. So they try to find a story angle in turnout numbers, even if there isn’t one. David Orr stopped doing mid-day turnout projections a couple of years ago. I wish the Chicago Board of Elections would do the same.
And Kennedy kicks butt. If you’re not following him you should be kicked out of Illinois politics.
Comment by Roman Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:02 am
Ultimately, he will go down in history memorialized by the Scott Kennedy water park that will someday soon be established within the Thompson Center once it is turned into Windy City Adventure World.
Comment by Hon. John Fritchey Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:35 am
Fritchey, I am willing to put my considerable support behind this project, but only if it is called “Blue Wave.”
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:58 am
I didn’t mind the intra-day kvetching though, it may have gotten more people to go and vote after work when there was a bit of a turnout surge. So while inaccurate at the end of the day, it may have done some good.
Comment by Grand Avenue Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:39 pm
So, if you’re Sawyer, do you spend money on advertising? Or just wait until the 12th? Kind of a weird position to be in.
Comment by JT11505 Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:40 pm
Malort isn’t terrible, if you like cough syrup spiked with gasoline.
Comment by SpfdNewb Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:48 pm