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“Unofficial” COGFA analysis is pretty close to Pritzker revenue forecast

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* From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability

This analysis is based on interpretation of the proposed plan, and relies on briefing materials, news reports, and administration comments {not actual legislation}. As such, this analysis is considered unofficial in nature, and is subject to change as emerging details warrant.

COGFA estimates the governor’s graduated income tax would net $3.331 billion. That’s about $69 million less than the governor’s $3.4 billion forecast, which is only 2 percent off.

The analysis was given to legislative leaders and approp people the other day.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 1:57 pm

Comments

  1. At least this Governor has submitted a budget that is close. After the last 4 years, 2% doesn’t seem staggering. Simplistic thought says spread that 2% over the tax rates and you are breaking even.

    Comment by FormerParatrooper Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:07 pm

  2. Okay let’s just stop
    I frankly don’t care how close we are to Pritzkers numbers
    We
    Have
    to
    Get
    Revenue
    into
    the fricking Willard Ice building
    hook or crook
    hell or high water.
    This is getting to be a phallus measuring contest
    I know how big it is
    means a lot to some people.
    But God folks
    Lets just put it on the board in 2020
    and let the people decide
    ugh

    Comment by Honeybear Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:20 pm

  3. I don’t quite understand the 2% off (in this post) and the 8% off (in the earlier one). The 3.4 billion isn’t Pritzger’s revenue estimate. It’s his estimated increase. That increase is something like 9%. So a 280 million difference in estimated revenue is 9% of 8%, i.e. a .72% difference. And COGFA’s 69 million dollar difference is 9% or 2% or a .18% difference.

    Another way to think about it: revenue was about 39 billion*. Pritzger says it will increase to about 42.4 billion, COGFA says it will increase to 42.331 billion, and the study of Bruno and Manzo says it will increase to 42.12 billion. I’m no expert, but can one really expect any more agreement than that from revenue estimates?

    *what I found while googling. That’s for 2016. Probably rounded to the nearest billion.

    Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:24 pm

  4. The only increase I want to hear about is the step. Budgeting is based on the assumptions used, so a minor difference is to be expected.

    Comment by Anon Y Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:52 pm

  5. Close enough.

    Admittedly it wasn’t financial, but when I was doing projections I was happy if I could end up +/- 10% two to three years out.

    Comment by RNUG Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:53 pm

  6. I look forward to this conversation turning to finding agreement on the very real and lingering problems we would solve with a new tax structure rather than the continued discussion over how many billions more the government will have to spend.

    Comment by Michelle Flaherty Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 3:18 pm

  7. Last night, i was informed by a friend of mine, that he and his wife were moving to missouri. Net worth $93 million.

    Comment by Blue Dog Dem Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 3:32 pm

  8. $3.4 billion coming from today’s top 3%.

    Comment by cannon649 Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 3:51 pm

  9. BDD - so they’re moving to Missouri for the progressive tax rate? Of which they’ll pay a higher rate than currently here in Illinois.
    Makes sense?

    Comment by DuPage Bard Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:16 pm

  10. ===Why isn’t Rep. Brad Halbrook doing the job that his constituents elected him to do?===

    I’m with you Michelle, but all they’ve got is flak. So, they’ll keep throwing it up there. JB just needs to keep delivering the clear message through the airwaves.

    Comment by PublicServant Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:20 pm

  11. Dupage. Yeah. 7% vs future 7.95% doesn’t seem significant. I imagine their property tax bill will be reduced by 1/2 but they are young(mid 40s) and angry.

    Comment by Blue Dog Dem Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:29 pm

  12. So angry that they’re going to move to Missouri and pay higher income tax 2 years before Pritzker’s proposed tax rates could become law? I guess it is the principle of the thing, not the money.

    Comment by Whatever Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:56 pm

  13. BDD- the “angry” part is the most important. That is what allows you to make a move whether the numbers make sense or not.

    Jimmy John was the same way…he “moved” to Florida expressly because he didn’t like Democratic control. Still see him around a lot, though.

    Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:59 pm

  14. Angry because you have 90 millions in your 40s and think that a mom who makes 30 thousands should pay the same taxes that’s not angry that a selfish couple who never learned the concepts of good citizenship. No one likes to pay taxes but we all want services and i for one am tired of society not realizing that then are major needs that can only be solved by government - retraining, education, childcare, healthcare, climate change programs, rebuilding and on and on and yell as you want those takes taxes…. at least when a millionaire pays a little more the next day he can eat not so much for the mom.

    Comment by Anon Y Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 6:47 pm

  15. Anony. I feel like you. But ya know what? They are good folks, and the state is going to miss those tax dollars.

    Comment by Blue Dog Dem Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 7:34 pm

  16. 93 million net worth and moving out of Illinois so they can pay more higher taxes? Sounds like nonsense.

    Comment by DeseDemDose Tuesday, Apr 2, 19 @ 8:53 am

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