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Morning Consult Poll: Pritzker job approval 44-35

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* Click here for the results. Since it’s Morning Consult, keep in mind that its methodology is, shall we say, a bit on the opaque side. All of the numbers are also quite old since the poll was taken from April 1 through June 30.

Anyway, they have Pritzker’s approve/disapprove at 44-35 with 21 percent undecided. He’s +51 with Democrats and -45 with Republicans. Independents split even. His approval rating alone (not net) ranks him 41st in the nation. He ended the first quarter at 40-39, so more people now have an opinion of him.

* Click here for US Senate results. Again, these numbers are old and the methodology is opaque. Durbin’s approval was 40 percent and his disapproval was 35. He was +45 with Democrats, -45 with Republicans and -6 with indies. His first quarter rating was 50-34, so he has declined.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:18 am

Comments

The Sterigenics reopening will hurt him with his base and kill him in DuPage and Southwest Suburban Cook. Some of the business preference “social equity” aspects of the recreational marijuana law will make the law difficult to implement, may lead to lawsuits and may hurt him with moderate voters. If busing gets injected into state and local politics, the Governor will face a Catch 22 that will either hurt him with moderates or his base. The Governor may overcome these problems but he’ll need to create a lot of new jobs separate and apart from the capital bill. If he significantly reverses the Illinois’ downward population trend and starts tackling Illinois massive debt, he will be hailed as a savior of the state. He will need Mayor Lightfoot as a partner so tackle many of these items.

Comment by Scaramucci Cuccinelli Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:31 am
Alot yet to be determined. If the progressive tax increase is allowed, i believe he will get a boost.

Comment by Generic Drone Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:35 am
==The Sterigenics reopening will hurt him with his base==

The hardest thing for people who frequent websites like capfax is conceptualizing that the vast majority of people know and care about the minute details of politics less than we do. If you polled 1000 Pritzker voters in the Chicago area, I’d earnestly be shocked if more than 3 of them had ever even heard the word “Sterigenics”.

Comment by PJ Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:37 am
Roads being repaired/re-paved, bridges being repaired/re-built is visual. Infrastructure spending goes a long way toward approval.

Comment by efudd Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:38 am
Interesting to see so many undecideds, but I guess he has only been here for less then a year so that makes sense.

I took a look at real clear politics polls of JB vs Bruce in 2018. The various polling had him at 49, 46, 36, and 50 but when Bruce is your opponent you tend to look better in comparison.

My predictions for the future? Getting closer to the election more of those undecideds will break for JB then against him if he keeps it up assuming he doesn’t do something stupid like Quinn or Bruce. People like to complain about taxes, but they also like stability which JB has been providing so far.

Comment by ItsMillerTime Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:39 am
Given all things to this poll, the lone takeaway that I’d see as “something”?

===Independents split even.===

That is going to be the measure as politics has become so polarizing and angry, if anyone can stay “even” with Indies, you have a shot at staying above water.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:39 am
===If you polled 1000 Pritzker voters in the Chicago area, I’d earnestly be shocked if more than 3 of them had ever even heard the word “Sterigenics”.===

It’s not the statewide worry right now.

The political worry, outside the medical and families effected, is the region and that scope area.

Not everything is a big picture issue “all the time”.

How all will be handling this going forward might make this larger than the regional concerns that already exist.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:42 am
== If you polled 1000 Pritzker voters in the Chicago area, I’d earnestly be shocked if more than 3 of them had ever even heard the word “Sterigenics”.==

I couldn’t agree with you more right at the this moment in time. However Durkin and the Republican Party will make it an issue via paid media. You should also check out the “Stop Sterigenics” facebook page. Baseball hall of famer Jim Thome and his journalist wife Andrea Thome have a very far reach on social media via their social media network and this page. The Tribune is also sympathetic to their cause and Erin Brockovich is also on board. Environmentalists far and wide will be upset.

Comment by Scaramucci Cuccinell Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:44 am
In 6 months he will be under water, unless the most disgruntled have already moved out of state.

Comment by Pick a Name Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:44 am
===In 6 months he will===

Playing the lottery today too? LOL

I forget, “you know”

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:46 am
==The political worry, outside the medical and families effected, is the region and that scope area.==

The Governor should also be concerned about the Sterigenics re-opening “tainting” the money he can contribute to other candidates.

Comment by Scaramucci Cuccinelli Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:47 am
I question these results. I don’t know any Democrats who aren’t approving him. Doesn’t mean there aren’t any, but that D approval number seems low.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:47 am
===The Sterigenics reopening will hurt him with his base===

He lost Durkin’s district by 15 points and his next election isn’t for three and a half years.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:48 am
===However Durkin and the Republican Party will make it an issue via paid media===

1) With what money?

2) In three and a half years?

Stop talking about the next election as if it’s tomorrow. It makes you look silly or manipulative. Start thinking.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:50 am
These are very good numbers considering what Governor Pritzker was attempting to achieve. This is a blue state. I don’t think so called independents are that important in this state. JB said what he was going to do and got it done. Most voters in Illinois agree with him on most major issues.

Comment by Steve Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:51 am
===The Governor should also be concerned about the Sterigenics re-opening.===

Ok, I let the first one slide. Here’s what you seem to forget;

Leader Durkin is the sponsor of the bill that failed Willowbrook.

If Leader Durkin wants to press this, or the GOP wants to make this partisan, a man who spent $300K a day to be the governor isn’t gonna sit back and take all the heat. Nope.

Now, I will grant you, “Governors Own”, and this governor won’t be able to escape that. That’s not how it works.

But, this premise that the failure of Durkin’s bill will be glossed over if Durkin or the GOP are more focused about partisan play calling instead of rectifying this issue, no one is going to come out all that great.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:52 am
I’m not a JB supporter but … come on does anyone think Sterigenics is going to be a big issue when JB runs for reelection ? Most voters don’t even know what it is. Put down the crack pipe.

Comment by Steve Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:57 am
According to Crains, Rauner was much worse off at this point in his first (only) term: “In spring 2015, shortly after Rauner took office, his approval/disapproval numbers were very close at 37 percent approving and 32 percent disapproving. Nearly a third of the sample then took a wait-and-see stance…”

I’d say Pritzker is doing ok.

https://tinyurl.com/y4cnzoua

Comment by Nick Name Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 9:58 am
===does anyone think Sterigenics is going to be a big issue when JB runs for reelection ?===

What happens with this issue in the next 3 months is far more important than an election 3+ years away.

Aren’t you the one that told me about pension taxes 4-5 years down the road… and I should worry?

I think I read that.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:00 am
It’s a little better than the last approval poll in March 2019. If I remember right, his approval numbers weren’t so hot during the campaign (he may have been underwater).

Pritzker and GA Democrats have done great for the base, which was a worry. Was the GA going to balk on marijuana legalization, graduated income tax CA or minimum wage hike? No, thankfully. Sterigenics could and should be a problem if not handled right.

The capital bill, marijuana legalization and casinos should create a lot of jobs, and unions like IUOE Local 150 and UFCW Local 881 should be happy. AFSCME is happy after Rauner’s brutal but failed attacks, and his ripping off thousands of workers. That’s a lot of voters who could turn out for Pritzker.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:10 am
== the vast majority of people know and care about the minute details of politics less than we do. ==

Yep. Unless it is a HUGE story covered literally everywhere for a week or more, most people don’t tune into politics until something like 6 - 8 weeks before an election … just in time for the sound bite ads.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:20 am
He’s doing a good job. I had my doubts but he’s gotten a lot done in a short amount of time.

Comment by Former State Worker Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:26 am
=The Sterigenics reopening will hurt him with his base and kill him in DuPage and Southwest Suburban Cook.=

Kill him in DuPage? There was some outcry but this was not a monster issue to begin with and it is tied to Rauner.

My parents live in the area on the Cook County side, so I am concerned and informed, but they were not aware of it until I told them about it.

You are grossly miscalculating the impact, if any.

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Pritzker did just about everything he said he would with his first GA.

Now we wait to see the impact. A lot can happen in 3.5 years.

I would guess he still has a shot at reelection. /s

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:27 am
== Durbin’s approval … ==

It’s possible Durbin is reaching his expiration date … although it just may be a decline due to national issues.

I would still like to see Durbin challenged by a center to center-right candidate from either party; I don’t think he would survive a moderate candidate. But that could just be my personal bias kicking in, I know him too well and flat don’t like the man … let alone his politics.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:29 am
===If you polled 1000 Pritzker voters in the Chicago area, I’d earnestly be shocked if more than 3 of them had ever even heard the word “Sterigenics”.===

If you polled 1000 Pritzker supporters in the suburbs (specifically west and southwest), you can bet that 97% know about Steregenics. Their advocacy group, complete with celebrity spokespersons and well-healed residents in the area have been very effective spreading the word. Dems running in the area are definitely going to be tied to JB and Kwame on this one.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:32 am
===…it is tied to Rauner.===

Governors own. They always do.

Pritzker will catch some heat. That’s the gig.

If Durkin and the GOP decide that Pritzker deserves all of it, that’s not the best way to get this solved. Probably a good way for more information about Durkin’s failed bill to be discussed too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:34 am
===However Durkin and the Republican Party will make it an issue via paid media===

Paid media isn’t necessary on this one. Thank Heavens. If it was, no one would ever hear about it.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:34 am
===If you polled 1000 Pritzker supporters in the suburbs (specifically west and southwest), you can bet that 97% know about Steregenics.===

97%? Not 98%, I bet 94% would be considered high too.

===Dems running in the area are definitely going to be tied to JB and Kwame on this one.===

… among with the failure of Leader Durkin, the sponsor of the bill that failed Willowbrook.

When you walk your imaginary precinct this weekend and talk to the thousands that seemingly always agree with you, ask them about that failed Durkin bill.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:37 am
===Paid media isn’t necessary on this one. Thank Heavens. If it was, no one would ever hear about it===

If ya wanna make this partisan, that isn’t helping.

I’d probably be worried about folks learning “Durkin’s failed bill hurt Willowbrook”

The GOP needs to realize… the answer isn’t gonna be in the blame here… they better realize solving this is the best PR they can get.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:39 am
JB’s colossal tax increase(s) on the poor and middle class should haunt him for the duration of his term.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:42 am
==Kill him in DuPage? There was some outcry but this was not a monster issue to begin with and it is tied to Rauner.==

The wild card will be Dan Cronin and the DuPage County Board. The Lake County Board may get dragged into this issue as well.

Comment by Scaramucci Cuccinelli Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:52 am
Red flag #1: It does not take three full months to survey 1000 people.

Comment by H-W Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:52 am
This is ridiculous. This is based on polling done in January through March.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 10:59 am
Rich, help me out here. You’re saying that this is Q2 data, but this is what it says on Morning Consult’s methodology page: Morning Consult conducted 472,802 surveys with registered U.S. voters from January 1 through March 31, 2019 to determine the Q1 2019 Governor Rankings.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:01 am
==JBs collosal tax increase== Go back to facebook where facts dont matter. You’ve been hit with facts you choose to ignore.

Comment by Generic Drone Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:04 am
H-W — They’re claiming they polled 20,000 people in Illinois. But doing it over three months doesn’t tell us much.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:06 am
Blue Dog - taxes for the poor and middle class will be decreased under JB’s progressive tax plan. Their were also a number of Republicans that votes for the gas tax increase, and the other taxes in the budget, but don’t let that get in the way of you saying the same talkng points over and over again. Maybe drop the Blue Dog name because it really doesn’t suit you.

Comment by Ike Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:06 am
= you can bet that 97% know about Steregenics. Their advocacy group, complete with celebrity spokespersons and well-healed residents in the area have been very effective spreading the word. Dems running in the area are definitely going to be tied to JB and Kwame on this one.=

I disagree. It is not the hot button issue many (including me) wish it was. The awareness level in the area that is in close proximity is well below 50%. It should be 100%, but that is the nature of peoples attention span these days.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:06 am
Feeding trolls with their Facebook drivebys…

They like the attention, please don’t confuse them with an argument.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:07 am
Ike. Nice try. That .05% decrease in income tax is a real deal clincher.

Governors own.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:09 am
===That .05% decrease in income tax===

=== Governors own===

Case in point.

See the troll? The troll thinks the argument is… people… see a tax decrease as bad.

It’s the attention, not a rational argument.

We fed you. Congratulations

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:11 am
Ike. I have been an advocate of the progressive income tax. But the median family income in Illinois is around $72k. I wont insult you, if you wont insult me. But do the math. Now look at new plate fees. Look at the $10k trade in allowance on cars
Look at the tax increase on fuel. These taxes dont hurt the rich person. But they really hurt those on the lower income scale. Dems need to accept this. They need to own this.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:21 am
Blue Dog - Rauner signed a budget with a tax increase on all Illinois families, but I didn’t see you saying it was a colossal tax increase that will hurt poor and middle class families. Drop the Blue Dog name because it doesn’t suit you

Comment by Ike Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:21 am
Of course (total) taxes are going up on the poor and middle class. And if the CA doesn’t pass, the taxes on the middle class are going to be brutally high.

Comment by Birdseed Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:32 am
==He ended the first quarter at 40-39, so more people now have an opinion of him.==

If his first quarter undecided number was higher than 21, it seems the more people learn out about him leads them to approve of him. That’s pretty good for any governor. Next quarter we’ll see if any of the undecideds are confederate railroad fans

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 11:42 am
“See the troll? The troll thinks the argument is… people… see a tax decrease as bad.” Well, I do give him a small plus for not saying “structural reforms.”

Comment by Skeptic Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 12:04 pm
These are early and somewhat squirrelly numbers.

If the progressive tax amendment passes with no additional taxes, JB will have high marks. Republicans cannot find a strong candidate to run against Durbin. It will be interesting to see who wants to ride the elephant against JB. But there is time for that.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 12:19 pm
On Sterigenics, JB should assign 5 IEPA staff full time to monitor emissions. That covers a 4 shift operation with backup. The state should also try to get the plant manager on board with emission free operation.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 12:32 pm
==keep in mind that its methodology is, shall we say, a bit on the opaque side==

At least they aren’t We Ask America..

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 1:23 pm
Anonymous at 12:19 was me.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Jul 18, 19 @ 2:29 pm