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* Here we go…
After telling me on Sunday that he’s “definitely looking at” running for Congress, @SenChapinRose tells me he has decided not to run for IL-15 in 2020. “It is absolutely the wrong time for my family,” he says. He has three kids between grade school and high school. https://t.co/G519CrunJr
— Mark Maxwell (@MarkMaxwellTV) September 3, 2019
Righter says Senator @JasonPlummerUSA is a “young, bright guy” who “has to be drowning in frustration in Springfield right now.” He says @ErikaHarold “would have made a great Attorney General.” Righter says both would be “an outstanding nominee for our party.”
— Mark Maxwell (@MarkMaxwellTV) September 3, 2019
State Rep. Michael Marron (R-Fithian) is “definitely interested” in running to replace @RepShimkus in Congress, per a campaign aide. He is set to make an announcement about his 2020 plans on Tuesday in Danville. https://t.co/qctVEPbiyb
— Mark Maxwell (@MarkMaxwellTV) September 2, 2019
* Marron announced an exploratory committee today…
At the Vermilion County Administration Building in front of family, friends and supporters, State Representative Mike Marron (R-Fithian) announced the creation of an exploratory committee to seek the 15th Congressional seat currently held by John Shimkus. Shimkus has recently announced that he will not be seeking reelection.
“For over 20 years, Congressman John Shimkus has represented parts of Southern Illinois in Congress,” said Marron. “When John decided not to run again, I knew that it would be a huge loss for Southern Illinois, and our country. Anyone trying to replace him will have incredibly large shoes to fill. He has a legacy of rolling up his sleeves and getting to work for Southern Illinois in the good times and fighting the liberal Obama and Pelosi policies in the bad times. I want to continue that legacy that reflects Southern Illinois values.”
Marron highlighted his experience as Vermilion County Board Chairman and State Representative at the press conference. Mike has had success in getting a strong consensus on a partisan county board. During his tenure, he was successful in working through differences the board members had with other board members and with the opposition party.
Mike took this leadership style to Springfield as State Representative, and as a freshman representative, he was able to work within a super-minority caucus to pass legislation that helped the citizens of the 104th Legislative District. Legislation such as helping protect the public health of his constituents by creating the regulatory framework that prevents coal ash pollution like what occurred at the Vermilion Power Station and protecting taxpayers from fronting the bill.
“Now, everyone knows that Springfield politics, especially from the past year, don’t reflect the values of us downstate, rural Illinoisans,” said Marron. “I fought against Springfield Democrats implementing the largest minimum wage increase in this state’s history, the implementation of a massive tax increase being billed as a “fair and progressive” tax, and the most expansive abortion law in the country. Unfortunately, due to Chicago’s influence, all of these things passed despite my opposition.
“A true leader knows when to get to work and when to fight for what’s right. Politicians and political insiders in Washington DC fight when they need to get to work and make compromises when they need to fight. I am here today to announce that I am opening an exploratory committee to run as the Congressman in the 15th District.”
Chairing the exploratory committee is Vermilion County Board Chairman Larry Baughn. Other members of the committee include Pat O’Shaughnessy of Danville, Stan Harper, Champaign County Board Member from St. Joseph and Bill Raben, a farmer from Ridgeway. More members will be invited in the coming weeks.
He did vote for the capital bill taxes, however.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 12:43 pm
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The most foolish runs?
Erika Harold… Jason Plummer.
Both will, if they win, be the “freshman”, catching either Bost or Davis, or might get all three in one district come 2022.
Harold needs to win, get established, move forward. A one term congresswoman, she’ll get to be a pundit with some now “elected” cache, but…
Plummer? It’s not 2020 that should scare him, it’s being squeezed out long term as a continued failure outside a senate seat, and the patsy for both parties to draw out. I’m sure he’d like to leap out… can he beat either, or both, Bost, Davis, and risk the seat he has and what he’s building on? He’s young.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 12:49 pm
Also, any Raunerite that would like to run and leave the GA in any fashion, by winning or giving you their seat, I couldn’t be happier.
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 12:55 pm
When I read Shimkus was going to retire, I recalled the famous quote from Dorothy Parker when she was told Calvin Coolidge had died: “How could you tell?”
Comment by Sayitaintso Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 12:56 pm
“Now, everyone knows that Springfield politics, especially from the past year, don’t reflect the values of us downstate, rural Illinoisans”
Hey I live in downstate and you don’t reflect my values.
Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:01 pm
Also looking at it from the GOP Caucus perspective?
Shimkus leaving now, this round, he helps both Bost and Davis by allowing them to even wade into who should be “next”, maybe helping the weakest win as they will face this new Congressperson in 2022, so they can choose their poison now?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:04 pm
running to get the last seat on the titanic
Comment by NotRich Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:06 pm
Who wants a seat that’s gonna vanish after the re-map?
Comment by Hard Hat Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:22 pm
Is that Toby Trimmer reading the news?
Comment by TEC Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:23 pm
… and I’ll finish my thought(s) with this;
The very smart thing for;
Shimkus
Bost
Davis
Rep. Congressional Campaign Comm
ILGOP
Pick a caretaker candidate all will help and support, get them elected, and that new Congress Critter walks away saving a boatload of cash and heartache for the party and the delegation come remap time.
Maybe a Shimkus staffer? Old timer looking for a final “headstone” title? Maybe a climber looking and not minding the short-term gig.
This probably won’t remotely happen so lots of cash in 2020 and 2022 will be wasted on a seat likely disappearing.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:44 pm
I think this would be a great career move for Harold. She cashes in on the good will earned with the party elites from her AG. And who’s to say she couldn’t beat Davis and/or Bost? I wouldn’t call myself a member of the Harold fan club, but it’s a smart move for her.
Comment by DarkHorse Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 1:59 pm
===And who’s to say she couldn’t beat Davis and/or Bost? ===
Narrator: Davis has already beat Harold.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:01 pm
Dear Oswego - while I generally love your posts…
Harold got 41% against Davis while being outspent 8:1. She’s a better candidate now. I think she’d beat him.
Comment by DarkHorse Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:05 pm
Harold lost.
People win spending less, people win with horrible messaging and campaign crews.
===And who’s to say she couldn’t beat Davis and/or Bost? ===
Davis beat Harold.
She’ll also be a freshman, and Davis or Bost, or both, will take her to task as such.
It’s a foolish run. The GOP needs to eat the seat, save the money, hold their powder, and make it easier to keep what they have in remap discussion come 2021
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:08 pm
I hear you, OW.
Here’s a related question: do you think Harold will actually run for this seat?
Comment by DarkHorse Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:14 pm
Marron did vote for the budget while half of the GOP Leadership cowered under their desks . . .that is true. It also included a casino license for Danville that they had been waiting 30 years to get . . . . .$100 million dynamics don’t happen very often in Vermilion County (which by the way has the largest single community and County population in the District).
Comment by Say What? Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:15 pm
I dunno.
I’m also someone, even if it’s figured out how to phase out the seat… run ‘em all.
Anyone wants to run, have at it.
It may be foolish, but…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:15 pm
- DarkHorse -
===I dunno.===
To that, who had Lightfoot winning?
Doesn’t mean it’s right, wrong, anything.
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:19 pm
OW, very Rauner-esque of you to be telling voters of this district that they should bow down to Bost/Davis’ political aspirations and settle on a backbencher/one-termer in congress. (eat your spinach, no pudding)
Comment by ego illy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:19 pm
===…very Rauner-esque of you to be telling voters of this district that they should bow down to Bost/Davis’ political aspirations and settle on a backbencher/one-termer in congress.===
The ILGOP caucus and the IL delegation politics “say” it’s the smart move.
I always also say, “run ‘em all”, so there’s that too.
Dunno if Rauner says that…
(He didn’t)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 2:21 pm
==Marron did vote for the budget while half of the GOP Leadership cowered under their desks .==
Not only that, he hasn’t joined the Eastern Blockheads, while being surrounding by them.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 4:02 pm
Always appreciate Willy’s serum for fixing the GOP. #eyeroll
To the post: I’m sad to see Sen. Righter turned off by politics so badly that he wouldn’t want to explore this. He’s one of the smartest, most thoughtful policy guys in Springfield and would have been a great antidote to the s#itshow that is Washington.
Comment by Token Conservative Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 4:42 pm
===#eyeroll===
Don’t hurt yourself, “they’ll stay that way”
Also, Sen. Righter is a solid legislator. The lone break during the Rauner hostage taking.
===He’s one of the smartest, most thoughtful policy guys in Springfield and would have been a great antidote to the … that is Washington.===
You think he could’ve won in 2022 against, Bost, against Davis, or against them both.
No eye rolling, that’s the play. lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 4:45 pm
First of all, the 2022 discussion is based on Davis winning in 2020. Likely, but not guaranteed. If he loses then that changes the dynamics for the remap because it makes it easy for the Dems. If there’s one seat down, combine Bost & the Shimkus replacement.
Secondly, the remap could be based on where the Shimkus replacement is from. Right now you have Davis from Taylorville, Shimkus from Metro-East and Bost from the western part of Southern Illinois. If Shimkus’ replacement came from East Central Illinois (Marron/Harold) then that’s a different map discussion than if somebody like Plummer from Metro-East won. I could see a situation where Plummer gets put in with Bost and Marron or Harold gets combined with Davis.
Comment by MyTwoCents Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 7:56 pm
Don’t rule out Ambassador McCarter.
Comment by Highland IL Tuesday, Sep 3, 19 @ 8:03 pm
===First of all, the 2022 discussion is based on Davis winning in 2020. Likely, but not guaranteed===
It’s based on what we know. Today.
Shimkus won’t be around after 2020, or 2022.
That’s an open seat, with a Freshman, and in an area Dems won’t mind drawing out a solid GOP district.
That’s what its based on.
===If he loses then that changes the dynamics for the remap because it makes it easy for the Dems.===
Maybe, but not really.
Dems are guaranteed by eliminating the known, (Shimkus) the rest can either be drawn more competitive, or leave Davis’ seat, along with Bost, LaHood, Kinzinger, all alone, and go after other districts *if* they flip back… like 6 or 14.
Sacrificing Shimkus allows the delegation and the ILGOP a strong chance to lose but one district… because as a delegation, it’s close to being maxed out partisanly, including 6 and 14 now in Dem hands.
===Secondly, the remap could be based on where the Shimkus replacement is from. Right now you have Davis from Taylorville, Shimkus from Metro-East and Bost from the western part of Southern Illinois. If Shimkus’ replacement came from East Central Illinois (Marron/Harold) then that’s a different map discussion than if somebody like Plummer from Metro-East won. I could see a situation where Plummer gets put in with Bost and Marron or Harold gets combined with Davis.===
That’s quite a bit of work when the easy and safest is sacrifice Shimkus, and then the whole focus becomes 6 or 14 or how those districts are drawn as “competitive”.
It’s a fun parlor game, today… but having a southern and central Illinois mess for a freshman GOP member taking over a seat Shimkus is leaving seems more and more like a way the Dems can fracture the fragile GOP more… being even more regional within the regional mindset.
Run ‘em all, but ignoring a chance to save the GOP caucus time, money, and division… that seems smart.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 7:33 am
Plummer is the obvious choice, but the question is, does he really want to do it right now? I doubt he would be all the concerned with the redraw. He would be much stronger than Davis in a GOP primary (voters would be reminded of Davis’ bailing on Trump in 2016), and Plummer would drastically outraise Bost, who has never been a great fundraiser.
I also think it’s more likely that Davis gets drawn in with LaHood, if you look at the current map.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 9:47 am
===voters would be reminded of Davis’ bailing on Trump in 2016===
… and yet, in 2018, Davis shared a stage with Trump those final “days”
===I doubt he would be all the concerned with the redraw===
If Davis and Bost can outflank Plummer, the new Freshman in the caucus… I’d be worried. Plummer will be least senior.
===He would be much stronger than Davis in a GOP primary===
Remains to be seen.
It’ll be really interesting if Plummer decides its time.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 9:51 am
===Don’t rule out Ambassador McCarter===
Please rule out Ambassador McCarter.
Comment by someonehastosayit Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:17 am
==If Davis and Bost can outflank Plummer, the new Freshman in the caucus… I’d be worried. Plummer will be least senior.==
Bost isn’t in any sort of leadership position, and struggles to raise big money. Plummer has an endless supply of money. The last thing Davis or Bost would want is to be drawn into a district with Plummer.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:36 am
===Bost isn’t in any sort of leadership position, and struggles to raise big money.===
Seniority in the delegation, that’s the position. Making a map more “reasonable” for competing incumbents.
===Plummer has an endless supply of money.===
… and yet, needed an engineered state Senate seat. Hmm.
===The last thing Davis or Bost would want is to be drawn into a district with Plummer.===
I doubt that. Neither Bost nor Davis have lost a congressional race, Plummer has lost, easy to see why.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:41 am
=Plummer has an endless supply of money.===
… and yet, needed an engineered state Senate seat. Hmm.
===The last thing Davis or Bost would want is to be drawn into a district with Plummer.===
I doubt that. Neither Bost nor Davis have lost a congressional race, Plummer has lost, easy to see why. =
Plummer has never lost a primary, which is what we’d be talking about here, so try to stay focused and on point.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:44 am
OW- I disagree with your statement. If Plummer is running, he’s obviously had conversation with GOP leadership. Oh, and what would Erika Harold have to lose? Bost is likely to bow out in a primary with Plummer. The last thing Mike wants to do is test many of his long term relationships in the twilight of his career. Davis is another story, he isn’t going anywhere. That would be an interesting match-up, but I agree with Dave W., it would be a tough *primary for a moderate like Davis.
Comment by MadCoPolitico Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:45 am
===Bost is likely to bow out in a primary with Plummer.===
What do you base that on?
===The last thing Mike wants to do is test many of his long term relationships in the twilight of his career.===
You’re saying Plummer scares Bost? That’s what you’re basing it on?
===Plummer has never lost a primary, which is what we’d be talking about here, so try to stay focused and on point.===
The point is… Plummer has a blueprint to be beaten, abd in a primary, the incumbents with history and a favorable map in the delegation for Bost or Davis won’t be an accident.
This thought that … Jason Plummer… scares TWO sitting Congress Critters in a remap that has Plummer the newest member of a delegation that could defer to the senior members, (Dems are drawing the map, with “input” at the congressional level, of history is a precedent) ceding to a more favorable map to the newly minted…. whew.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:50 am
===twilight of his career.===
Bost… is Fifty-Eight…
Twilight at 58?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 10:52 am
==This thought that … Jason Plummer… scares TWO sitting Congress Critters in a remap that has Plummer the newest member of a delegation that could defer to the senior members, (Dems are drawing the map, with “input” at the congressional level, of history is a precedent) ceding to a more favorable map to the newly minted…. whew.==
I didn’t say that anyone drawing the map would defer to Plummer. I’m saying I don’t think he would back down from running against Bost or Davis, and they would most certainly not want to run against him. Their seniority in the delegation would mean nothing to the primary voters. Just ask Kinzinger.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 11:10 am
===I’m saying I don’t think he would back down from running against Bost or Davis, and they would most certainly not want to run against him.===
LOL
Again, Plummer scares BOTH Congress Critters, Bost AND Davis?
Your premise is… “Plummer ain’t scared, others are”
Others being actual congressmen, who will have greater seniority, and the Dems drawing a map with Plummer the newest?
===Their seniority in the delegation would mean nothing to the primary voters. Just ask Kinzinger===
You’re purposely comparing…
Kinzinger to Plummer
Manzullo to both Bost AND Davis?
Yikes.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 11:23 am
No, you’re pretending that somehow seniority is going to benefit Davis and Bost with primary voters. I’m saying it’s not.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 1:45 pm
===you’re pretending that somehow seniority is going to benefit Davis and Bost with primary voters. I’m saying it’s not.===
Can you not read, or…
===Plummer the newest member of a delegation that could defer to the senior members, (Dems are drawing the map, with “input” at the congressional level, of history is a precedent) ceding to a more favorable map to the newly minted===
You think that this new map with TWO or THREE other mrners are going to agree to a map favoring a freshman?
===Just ask Kinzinger===
If you think Plummer is Kinzinger, LOL
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 1:50 pm
So, you’re not willing to acknowledge the point. You’re the expert on Southern IL GOP politics. Got it.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 1:52 pm
===So, you’re not willing to acknowledge the point.===
What point? LOL
Bost and Davis are afraid of Plummer, but Plummer fears no one?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 1:53 pm
=Bost and Davis are afraid of Plummer, but Plummer fears no one?=
Yes. You have a guy who is young, very popular with Southern IL Republican voters, who is to the right of both Davis and Bost (certainly Davis), and an unlimited amount of money at his disposal. Of course they have zero interest in running against someone like that. I don’t understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp. By then again, you’re obviously not in touch with the political climate down here, so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:28 pm
===Yes===
LOL, No.
Sorry, no.
Your basis is a failed congressional and Lt. Governor candidate who lucked into a state Senate seat.
===You have a guy who is young, very popular with Southern IL Republican voters, who is to the right of both Davis and Bost (certainly Davis), and an unlimited amount of money at his disposal.===
Friend, that you *think* they actually *fear* Plummer?
I give you the “Chicago Tonight” video… LOL
This ain’t bean bag. They are seasoned.
===By then again, you’re obviously not in touch with the political climate down here, so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised.===
LOL… are you saying Bost and Davis aren’t popular?
Also, they BOTH stood on a stage with Trump.
Jason have that video?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:33 pm
Yes. Twilight of his career.
When does a normal person retire?
Bost is collecting a full pension from the state.
Maybe I’m wrong, but it’s been a long said rumor that he was planning to be done in 2024, if that’s true- this period of time would mark the twilight of his career.
Comment by MadCoPolitico Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:33 pm
===Maybe I’m wrong, but it’s been a long said rumor===
For the love of Pete, stop…
You’re basing your premise as “fact”… on a rumor?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:35 pm
===When does a normal person retire?===
At 59? 60?
Have you actually *looked* at the ages of some Congress Critters?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:37 pm
Here’s that Chicago Tonight video.
This brings fear to Davis and Bost?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8lICjD0aw9M
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:39 pm
==Your basis is a failed congressional and Lt. Governor candidate who lucked into a state Senate seat.==
Again, we’re talking about a PRIMARY, not a general election. He lost on the same ticket with Brady by less than 1% in an ultra blue state, running on a conservative message against an incumbent governor.
Then he wins the 12th congressional district in a landslide, and loses in the general election, in a big Democrat wave year in a district held by the Dems since before WWII.
But we’re not talking about a general election. We’re talking about a primary.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:40 pm
===He lost===
Lost.
===loses===
Loses.
Mike Bost beat Gen. Enyart. Did Plummer?
===We’re talking about a primary.===
… where both Bost and Davis are inoculated with Trump, sharing a stage.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:47 pm
You’re right, you have it all figured out.
Comment by Dave W Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 2:57 pm
===you have it all figured out.===
It’s absurd to think Bost and Davis fear Plummer.
No one… no one is clearing a field for Plummer, especially TWO Congress Critters, one who actually beat the sitting congressman Plummer lost to.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 4, 19 @ 3:00 pm