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* From the U of I’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs…
The University of Illinois Flash Index registered an unexpected gain to 105.5 in September from its 105.1 level in August.
“Despite numerous reports of slowing U. S. and global economies, Illinois appears to be doing well,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs.
However, Giertz said a word of caution is in order. “A large one-month change in the index can be the result of unusual variations in tax receipts patterns rather than true economic impacts,” he said.
The jump in the index comes after it had hit its lowest level so far for the year in August. See the full Flash Index archive.
Two of the three components of the Flash Index, individual income and corporate tax receipts, were up around 10 percent from the same month last year after adjusting for inflation and rate changes. Sales tax receipts were down slightly.
The unemployment rate in Illinois fell slightly to 4.0 percent, the lowest in many decades. In addition, the Illinois rate was only three-tenths of a percentage point above the national rate.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, personal income and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through September 30, 2019. An index reading above 100 denotes growth.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 10:56 am
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In line with the near crash of the repo market which attributed to biz need for cash for tax payments.
Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 10:58 am
Illinois is usually one of the last states to go into a recession and one of the last states to come out.
Don’t get too exhuberant, you can only buck national economic trends for 6-9 months, tops.
Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:03 pm
I’d say what we have going here is the Trump economy. Lower taxes for most and softening of some regs.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:34 pm
Definitely the Trump economy
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:49 pm
===Definitely the Trump economy===
Same with the bankruptcies happening on farms.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:54 pm
==Lower taxes for most==
You sure about that? Tariffs are taxes.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-war-tariffs-cost-americans-22-billion-through-april-2019-6-1028296264
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:57 pm
Trump absolutely gets the blame for the farm situation. Of course he could care less as farming is a miniscule part of our economy.
Comment by Rudiforte Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:58 pm
Same with the bankruptcies happening on the farm. When you over produce product, when you overpay cash rent, and you overpay for new equipment, bancruptcy is inevitable.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 12:59 pm
===When you over produce product===
It doesn’t help that a gigantic market is now suddenly gone.
Try living in reality here.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:00 pm
Rich. Prior to trade wars, the world corn supply for three consecutive years produced 33% more corn than global demand. That is the real world.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:06 pm
..each year.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:07 pm
===Prior to trade wars, the world corn supply for three consecutive years produced 33% more corn than global demand. That is the real world.===
Hmm… ethanol wavers??? Yeah, real friend of the farmer that guy.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:15 pm
Corn prices
2016-$3.58
2017-$3.61
2018-$3.71
2019-$3.86
Typical averages
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:18 pm
Taiwan recently agreed to buy $3.6 billion soybeans, corn, wheat, etc. from the US.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:29 pm
Soybeans were as low as 850 in 2016. So in this rate event I just agree with BDD.
John Deere is laying off on QCs. Small numbers compared to past downturns. Perhaps due to increased automation?
Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:30 pm
Our demographics mean slower growth but low unemployment. That will be a global thing not necessarily bad we just need to adjust.
Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:33 pm
While world wide commodity prices are very low, and have been that way for six to seven years, input costs(seed,fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides,fungicides,rent, equipment) have steadily increased. This is the trend that cant continue.
Back to the original post. Things seem good
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 1:39 pm
Not a Billionaire, it is absolutely true that or shrinking population means slower economic growth. Unfortunately, Illinois has a higher unemployment rate than the national average.
Comment by Dybalaton Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 2:04 pm
==Unfortunately, Illinois has a higher unemployment rate than the national average.==
0.3%? What’s the MOE?
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Oct 1, 19 @ 6:22 pm