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Justice Karmeier to retire

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Illinois

* I told subscribers about this earlier today as well…

Illinois Supreme Court Justice Lloyd Karmeier, 79, who was first elected to his seat on the state’s high court in 2004, will retire next December, according to the Administrative Office of Illinois Courts.

His notice means that candidates interested in filling the open seat may begin circulating nomination papers to appear on the March 17 primary ballot, with winners going on to the general election on Nov. 3, 2020.

Voters from the Fifth Judicial District - comprised of the state’s 37 southernmost counties - elected Karmeier, a Republican, over Gordon Maag, a Democrat who was a sitting Fifth District appellate court justice at the time, by a 10 point margin, 55-45 percent.

That election, essentially pitting business interests against the trial bar, was the nation’s costliest at the time, topping $9 million. A major issue in the election that resonated with voters was the high cost of medical malpractice insurance that providers said was driving doctors away from the Metro-East.

The district has since become even more Republican. I just don’t see it flipping back to the Democrats.

Four out of seven Supreme Court districts will be in play next year. In addition to Karmeier, appointed Justice P. Scott Neville of Chicago is up against numerous opponents, and Justices Bob Thomas and Tom Kilbride are both facing retention.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:07 pm

Comments

“Four out of seven Supreme Court districts will be in play next year”

Technically true, but those retention votes are a slam dunk for the sitting justices.

Comment by Donnie Elgin Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:15 pm
The Fifth will be remapped in 2022, bet on it.

Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:16 pm
===those retention votes are a slam dunk===

Nope. Both those districts have flipped to the opposite party and the justices need 60 percent.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:18 pm
2010
Robert Thomas was retained with 81.01% of the vote a new term on the Second District of the Illinois Supreme Court.[1][4]
2010
See also: Illinois judicial elections,
2010
Thomas Kilbride was retained with 65.88% of the vote for an additional term on the Illinois Supreme Court.[7]
Source:
https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois_Supreme_Court

Comment by Donnie Elgin Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:23 pm
“Only one judge failed to be retained from 1994 to 2014, though in 2014 a campaign arose to remove Justice Lloyd Karmeier from his seat on the Illinois Supreme Court. He was narrowly retained, winning by a margin of only 0.8 percent.[13][14]”

https://ballotpedia.org/Retention_election

Comment by Donnie Elgin Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:26 pm
Donnie, 2010 was a big GOP year. 2020 likely won’t be, which will hurt Thomas, but Trump on the ballot could help the GOP in the Kilbride district.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:35 pm
The Fifth had gotten more Republican; it has also gotten smaller. Will there be half a million votes cast there? Maybe the redistricting folks want to take a crack at those seats. It’s not required, but it still may be good policy to revisit those lines every half century or so.

Comment by DIstant watcher Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 12:46 pm
I agree both the 2nd and 3rd district retention races are slam dunks. In Kilbride’s 2010 retention election, there was massive outside money trying to get him unseated. I doubt that his yes vote will be as low as 65% this time. Also, Thomas is very well known and popular in the second district. There’s no chance of him not being retained.

Comment by Steve Rogers Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 1:06 pm
It’s ridiculous to elect judges based on judicial districts. They sit on the statewide supreme court. They should be elected statewide.

In any event, Democrats need to keep their eye on these races. The court is pretty closely split, and with Illinois Republicans unable to win legislative races, the judiciary is their best chance to foist their unpopular agenda on the state.

Comment by Quibbler Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 1:35 pm
The 3rd was a GOP seat for years before Kilbride won it. Will county is more than 1/3 of the district so turnout there will be most meaningful. In the 2nd, I don’t know if a Dem has ever been elected there since justices were elected, though if Rich’s point is that congressional and legislative races show a more competitive electorate than previously seen we’d have to concede that point. Solidly Red DuPage and Lake are no more. But I am unaware that the 2nd Judicial district has ever elected a Dem to either the Supreme or Appellate courts.Just sayin… Not much chance of a double doink with Justice Thomas’ retention election.

Comment by depressed in politics Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 1:37 pm
===But I am unaware that the 2nd Judicial district has ever elected a Dem to either the Supreme or Appellate courts===

This isn’t an election, it’s a retention requiring 60 percent and Pritzker won that district last year.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 1:39 pm
The Justices oversee the judges and administration of their individual districts. They may vote on cases statewide, but there are district specific responsibilities.

The 5th seats in 2016 were red by 11 and 13 points in 16. If Trump is on the ballot that stays minimum 8+. If they impeach trump it may go to 15.

If you are going to objectively evaluate races one rule must be kept in mind. It doesn’t have to be rational for it to be real to any particular voter.

Comment by the Patriot Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 1:46 pm
The 5th appellate district, which is part of Karmeier’s district had two judicial races last time. The Metro East attorneys helped the Democrat candidates outspend their Republican opponents by as much as 5:1. Both Republican candidates easily won the race. Karmeier’s successor will be decided in the primary.

Comment by Downstate Friday, Nov 1, 19 @ 2:19 pm