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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Republican Lawrence Oliver of Dorsey has filed to run against Rep. Avery Bourne, R-Morrisonville, in the March primary.
Oliver has not yet reported raising any money, but his main issue appears to be Bourne’s vote for the 19 cents per gallon gas tax hike to fund infrastructure projects during the past spring legislative session.
Dorsey’s primary challenge is not really news. He has slim to no chance of even getting close to the popular Republican incumbent.
What is different, and therefore newsworthy, is that Bourne would have surely faced a far more viable and well-funded opponent in the recent past if she’d sided — as she did this year — with the majority Democratic Party to double the state’s Motor Fuel Tax.
For the past few election cycles, pressure from powerful and/or well-funded groups and individuals would’ve scared any Republican incumbent away from such votes.
But former Gov. Bruce Rauner and his vindictive checking account have faded into the sunset. The multi-million-dollar money pipeline from wealthy Republican activist Richard Uihlein to Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC has been shut off. And, except for the $2 million he gave Bill Daley to run for mayor of Chicago earlier this year, Illinois’ richest resident Ken Griffin has been mostly quiet.
Those three men contributed over $200 million to campaigns since late 2013. That’s a whole lot of cash to put the fear into anyone who crosses them. And it’s why almost all of the Republicans who voted for the 2017 tax hike and the override of Rauner’s veto decided not to run again, lest they be primaried to death. But those rich folks are mainly on the sidelines today.
As a result, neither the House nor Senate Republican caucuses are experiencing any major backlash over the fact that large numbers of their members voted to raise taxes.
Rep. Terri Bryant, R-Murphysboro, voted for the gas tax hike and is running unopposed for state Senate. Springfield Republican Reps. Tim Butler and Mike Murphy were two more “Yes” votes who are unopposed for reelection. Rep. Tom Demmer, R-Dixon, has a general election opponent, but no GOP opposition. The same goes for Reps. Deanne Mazzochi, R-Elmhurst, Jeff Keicher, R-Sycamore, and others in the House as well as the Senate.
There was much grinding of teeth from the usual suspects when those tax hikes passed both chambers by wide bipartisan margins, but no “natural” groundswell of anti-tax opposition developed against Republicans who voted to fund the massive infrastructure plan to the point of people actually running against them. And the small number of people who did run aren’t exactly burning up the fundraising circuit.
Rep. Dan Brady, R-Bloomington, voted to increase taxes to fund infrastructure programs this year, so it could be an issue in his primary. But it’s not going to be much of a primary if his opponent, David Paul Blumenshine, R-Normal, doesn’t start raising money. Blumenshine reported bringing in $350 during the third quarter, loaning $1,100 to his campaign committee, spending about $4,500 on unitemized expenditures and ending the quarter in the hole by about $2,900. Democrat Chemberly Cummings has also filed to run.
President Trump won this district by only 1.25 percentage points in 2016, so it’s possible this college-town race could eventually be in play, even though Brady has consistently won by large amounts.
Rep. Dave Severin, R-Benton, is facing off against Tim Arview, R-West Frankfort. Severin voted for the tax hikes to fund the state’s new infrastructure program, including doubling the Motor Fuel Tax, and Arview has taken him to task for it. Arview told a local paper that he ran partly because of Severin’s tax votes and also because God had spoken to him.
Arview is an independent insurance agent. Like many of the other gas tax opponents, he has not yet reported any campaign contributions. In fact, he hasn’t filed any campaign finance paperwork at all as this is written. President Trump won the district by 43 points so no Democrats have filed.
The races where you are seeing sharp disagreement over the tax hikes are mainly in general election contests. For instance, Travis Breeden, R-Utica, has already repeatedly criticized freshman Rep. Lance Yednock, D-Ottawa, for his “Yes” vote to increase the Motor Fuel Tax. Then again, Rep. Sue Scherer, D-Decatur, voted for the tax hikes and is so far running unopposed for the first time ever.
What we’ve discovered is that when ultra-rich, anti-tax activists sit on the sidelines after a tax increase, few if any viable Republican protest candidates emerge on their own.
Makes you wonder.
Your thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:24 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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So, when they can’t be bought/scared by money, the ILGOP will do the financially responsible thing?
Heck, in 20 years, some may be for legal weed.
Comment by efudd Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:28 am
“God has spoken to him”
I was wondering where the Republican was who had God’s proxy, and bam, there he is.
Comment by efudd Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:30 am
It could be that the anti-tax advocates don’t view Illinois as a viable state anymore. Other states have roads and lower taxes.
Comment by Steve Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:36 am
To borrow from the metaphor, the ILGOP can’t be bothered with learning how to fish, choosing to eat filets the ultra-rich hand them.
Comment by Jocko Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:37 am
Rich- Scherer was unopposed in 2016. A republican was on the ballot until she withdrew in the summer (Cindy Deadrick Wolfer). The chairmen did not slate.
Comment by MacArthur Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:45 am
“viable state”
Sure, the ultra rich will leave Illinois for the cultural and financial epicenters of Kansas City, Lexington, and Birmingham.
Their money is staying in Chicago, they simply realize the ILGOP is a losing investment.
Comment by efudd Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 9:57 am
===It could be that the anti-tax advocates don’t view Illinois as a viable state anymore. Other states have roads and lower taxes.===
Let us all know when Citadel leaves. Last I checked LaSalle street was still rolling.
Comment by njt Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:04 am
Only three cities for the rich to move too for 6 months a year?
Every been to South Florida in the winter?
Anti tax?
Anti tax hike would be more appropriate
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:06 am
To the post,
It comes down to ROI, and here is where the Proft/Uihlein purity really failed the party.
They’d win these primaries, some in ridiculously safe seats, but when they’d win in competitive seats, you’d have loses, compounding on loses, and now it’s a super-minority that exists.
Why “punish” anyone in a super-minority, spend the money, and that new member is *still* in the super-minority.
Throw in Raunerism, the 51st staters, you’d be better off taking crisp $100 bills and burn them in the fireplace.
Ya think anyone is willing to throw $2-3 million for seats that are as useless as they are now?
The reality is that if the math was done, many things the uber-rich right now, the Dems *could*, much easier, beat them with the votes they already have in the caucuses, and the Governor, and having Rauner… it imploded the Raunerites. They all helped making each one of them irrelevant.
So… Ms. Borne, wins or loses, that seat changes nothing for the Proft/Uihlein folks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:08 am
Careful what you wish for NJT
A hedge fund can literally locate anywhere
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2019/09/11/inside-billionaire-ken-griffins-massive-palm-beach-holdings/
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:09 am
==Travis Breeden, R-Utica, has already repeatedly criticized freshman Rep. Lance Yednock, D-Ottawa, for his “Yes” vote to increase the Motor Fuel Tax.==
Lance works for IUOE Local 150. What were you expecting?
Comment by City Zen Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:14 am
Thanks very much to Rep. Bourne for voting for the infrastructure. That’s a critical way of making the state better, and for business too, since infrastructure is very important in businesses’ decisions to locate here. We have to pay for our improvements. Apparently, ultra-rich, anti-tax people want free stuff.
Ultra-rich, anti-tax right wingers hopefully realize Illinois is a lost cause to them. They maybe should follow their own talking points and leave Illinois. Union rights won’t be stripped by politicians here, Rauner’s apparently sole objective. There’s a real push to get fair taxation and for people who’ve prospered proportionally above and beyond everyone else to finally pay more. The branding that will come out of this fight should not be good for the ILGOP: unanimously protecting the richest at the expense of the lowest incomes getting a tax cut.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:19 am
Couple add-ons;
Great read, good stuff, Rich, as you’re breaking down a story in the story when it comes to the “how” and “why” it’s different now.
Also, with the progressive income tax looming in 2020, to go back to my comment, the ROI in trying to defeat the progressive income tax is, to them, probably a better use of any money.
Also, Gov. Pritzker is $5 million in… let’s see who wants to play.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:22 am
- Lucky Pierre -
You should buy into a U-Haul franchise.
At least make some money on your trolling others to move… as you stay.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:38 am
During the time that Rauner and friends were actively funding the Republicans, the rest of the party forgot how to raise money, at least at the state level. I know that the number have been reported here before, but the amount of money that Uihlein, Rauner, and Griffin gave to state level candidates in terms of percentage of overall dollars was staggering. Without being able raise money independently, it is going to be a long time before they are relevant again.
Comment by The Way I See It Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:47 am
Did some checking a few weeks ago on fuel prices across the border in the wonderland that is Indiana. Fuel prices were $.01 cheaper in my town than in Vincennes. Who would of thunk it. I wonder if people from Indiana are driving g over to reap the savings.
Comment by Southern Illinois Mayor Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 10:48 am
Trolling others to move? I said no such thing.
I remember you were the one who thought a move to Texas was in your future
That is not the same as peddling the nonsense that the rich can only take their money to KC, Lexington or Birmingham Alabama
That is not where big money goes in the winter
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:00 am
The GOP has been branded as the party of the rich, who wants to rubber stamp that
Comment by Rabid Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:07 am
Ow - Spot on - Add to the ROI equation Trump at the top of the ticket in the collars, along with a re-map in 2022, any significant investment for 2020 is hard to justify.
Same goes for high quality candidates who may have been looking to run in 2020 and are sitting on the sidelines because the ROI on their time is not justifiable
Comment by Former Candidate on the Ballot Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:11 am
Grandson
Poll telling the tall tale the middle class and working class in Illinois are actually getting a tax cut under the Pritzker administration and run that up the flagpole to see how it flies
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:19 am
=== Poll telling the tall tale the middle class and working class in Illinois are actually getting a tax cut under the Pritzker administration and run that up the flagpole to see how it flies===
After $5-10 million, it’ll be an interesting poll, tall tale or not. Also, “97% will see no increase” is accurate, so there’s that too.
=== Trolling others to move? I said no such thing.===
Your trolling is not about staying in Illinois, lol
Yep, I can see myself in California, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina. I’m not suggesting, ever, others should move, and if it could work, I’d stay. Bad mouthing Illinois is a thing you do, how do you not see it as trolling folks to move?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:29 am
(Tips cap to - Former Candidate on the Ballot -)
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:30 am
- Southern Illinois Mayor -
There’s nothing like filling up the tank in downtown Chicago. Real value. Better roads, better schools, and safety you can’t imagine.
Comment by Steve Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:30 am
GOP bashing Chicago, is biting the hand that feeds you
Comment by Rabid Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:46 am
===Careful what you wish for NJT
A hedge fund can literally locate anywhere===
Pretty sure this has more to do with the talent that works there, coming out of UC, UIUC, etc… None of my classmates at Citadel are willing to re-locate to FL, but I’ll keep checking with them if it will make you happy.
Comment by njt Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:00 pm
===None of my classmates at Citadel are willing to re-locate to FL===
Have you asked them this week? /s
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:03 pm
The lower and middle classes would be getting a tax cut under the Fair Tax brackets:
*From 4.95% to 4.75% for incomes up to $10,000/year
*From 4.95% to 4.9% for incomes between $10,001-$100,000/year
*Annual incomes between $100,001-$250,000 would be taxed at the same current rate (not bad)
Granted some of the cuts are very small, but they’re cuts, and what’s the ILGOP offering beside screaming in favor of tax cuts?
The Fair Tax is actually a great deal when compared with progressive-tax neighbor states, who raise taxes at much lower incomes. But the ILGOP has unanimously thrown in with the anti-tax, ultra-rich people: absolutely no tax cuts for many, to protect the richest.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:04 pm
“There’s nothing like filling up the tank in downtown Chicago. Real value.”
A couple of personal notes:
• I’ve managed to lived, drive and survive here for nearly thirty years without running out of gas in downtown Chicago.
• And if I did, I wouldn’t fill my tank there.
But please, do continue to pontificate about value…
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:45 pm
- @misterjayem -
When you fill up your gas tank in downtown Chicago: the gas is better that’s why it’s higher priced. What other reason could there be?
Comment by Steve Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 1:51 pm
The gas IS better because of the convenience of having the gas station nearby. Gas is cheaper a few miles East in Indiana but driving there isn’t convenient. Time is better spent taking in a show at the Hideout.
Comment by 17% Solution Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 2:21 pm
A lot of potential GOP candidates in the suburbs have told me they’re looking at 2022 as the easier cycle to win.
Comment by walker Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 3:23 pm
== A lot of potential GOP candidates in the suburbs have told me they’re looking at 2022 as the easier cycle to win. ==
And . . . the district they might in 2020 might be snatched away from them before 2022, with the new map.
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 3:38 pm
. . . the district they might *win* in 2020 . . .
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 3:40 pm
Well said, Rich. Most all of the primary wells are
Dry. And you explained a good part of the reason. Also, very few people want to join the minority and go to Springfield. Can’t get much done there.
Comment by Jon Zahm Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 8:11 pm
Thank you for bringing this up to everyone’s attention. It’s sad that you have such a cynical outlook on things. While yes, money does play a big part of any political campaign, it is not the only thing.
Lawrence Oliver, Tim Arview, David Paul Blumenshine and a handful of others are leading the charge for the people of Illinois. If our representatives are not doing their jobs and voting in the best interests of their constituents, they should be voted out.
You have too little faith in the people of Illinois. I believe that the people will look at the facts and while they have been silent far too long, this was the straw that broke the camel’s back. They will finally see the light and vote for people who are against higher taxes, wasteful spending and corruption in Springfield.
This is just the first step to turning Illinois around. Every journey starts with one step. Join the movement. Go to Illinois Gasoline Party on Facebook and be part of the solution.
Comment by Lori Fuller Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:12 pm
The Illinois gasoline party doesn’t need no stinking bridges. They can swim.
https://www.news-gazette.com/news/tax-hike-to-benefit-bridges/article_c005bd10-4004-507b-ab31-ce5127e3e1c6.html
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Dec 17, 19 @ 12:23 pm