Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Poll has Mary Miller with the lead in Shimkus district, but undecideds are at 63 percent

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* Remington Research Group poll taken in the 15th Congressional District December 10-11 for Republican congressional candidate Mary Miller, (no relation) who’s running in a crowded primary to replace retiring GOP US Rep. John Shimkus. The poll of 810 likely 2020 GOP primary voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. These are all interactive voice response calls…

Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 87%
Unfavorable: 8%
No opinion: 5%

Q2: What is your opinion of J.B. Pritzker?

Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 76%
No opinion: 18%

Q3: What is your opinion of John Shimkus?

Favorable: 52%
Unfavorable: 20%
No opinion: 28%

Q7: Possible candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for United States Congress are Mary Miller, Darren Duncan, Kerry Wolff, Charles Ellington, Kent Gray, and Kimberly Wade. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mary Miller: 16%
Darren Duncan: 7%
Kerry Wolff: 7%
Charles Ellington: 3%
Kent Gray: 3%
Kimberly Wade: 1%
Undecided: 63%

* Meanwhile, the leadership PAC for the House Freedom Caucus has endorsed Miller, which should be a big help in that primary. The House Freedom Fund has also endorsed Jeanne Ives.

Miller is the spouse of Rep. Chris Miller (R-Oakland), a member of the Eastern Bloc. I met her once and she has some chops. We’ll see what she can do at this level, though.

* Darren Duncan may also be one to watch…

Conservative Vermilion County Treasurer Darren Duncan, a seventh-generation farmer from Rossville and advocate for reduced spending and common-sense government is formally launching his campaign for the GOP nomination for the 15th Congressional District in the March 2020 primary.

Duncan, 48, made his formal announcement in a campaign video released this morning and in a speech to Vermilion County Republicans in Danville. […]

Duncan said he wants to help President Trump pass a conservative agenda through Congress that benefits rural areas and small communities throughout Illinois.

“I fully support President Trump’s USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico that will boost access to American farm and manufactured goods to our neighboring countries,” said Duncan, “and I stand with President Trump in his efforts to stop bad actors on the world stage taking advantage of our current trade system.”

Kerry Wolff is vice president of the Altamont School Board and has been in the solar power industry for the past few years.

Kent Gray is a goner.

* Kimberly Wade could be an interesting candidate if she survives the challenge to her petitions by Eastern Bloc Rep. Brad Halbrook. She filed on the last possible day.

Wade founded the Kids Shouldn’t Have Cancer Foundation and her work has often been featured by US Rep. Rodney Davis.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:03 am

Comments

This is fun, and a fun exercise to this election, who will win, and who will eventually be drawn out of the new congressional map, running against either Bost or Davis in 2022

If anything? If anything I think the polling and the eventual winner will be the good precursor of the precincts and voters swallowed up, and what they did in *this* primary and in votes for *this* POTUS in the fall.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:12 am
87% favorable for Trump. Ugh.

Comment by Nick Name Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:15 am
Crazy to think how long this district has been used to an uncontested race…I wonder if that’ll boost voter engagement/receptiveness to candidates reaching out to them.

Comment by NIU Grad Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:18 am
===87% favorable for Trump. Ugh. ===

It’s a Republican southern Illinois district. You were expecting otherwise? Heck, I’m surprised it’s not higher.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:19 am
“87% favorable for Trump. Ugh”

So they like the president big deal.

Comment by Donnie Elgin Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:21 am
In Effingham they hate the gov’ nor (boo, boo, boo)
Now we all did what we could do
Now election interference does not bother me
Does your conscience bother you?
Now tell the truth

Comment by midway gardens Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:53 am
I like the idea of a Representative who fights for kids with cancer.

Comment by 17% Solution Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:01 pm
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 11:12 am:

This is fun, and a fun exercise to this election, who will win, and who will eventually be drawn out of the new congressional map, running against either Bost or Davis in 2022

—

LaHood could also see himself mapped into the 15th if the GOP holds onto that seat. If it was based on seniority within the state’s GOP congressional delegation (currently he’s the least senior IL GOP congressional member).

Comment by Leatherneck Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:06 pm
- Leatherneck -

Honestly, you’re not wrong, and I’ve looked into that as a possibility to the political means, with, as you rightly point out, seniority being a driver to get everyone on board to get that map, and that freshman taking Shimkus’ place is definitely going to be district-less.

Maybe once we know who wins, and where they live could come into play, but I’m still leaning on making downstate far more “compact” as two districts helps Dems in 14, 6, even with Bustos(?)

We’ll see. Good point.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:12 pm
= seventh-generation farmer from Rossville and advocate for reduced spending=

Bet he likes government spending when it’s for farm subsidies.

Comment by JoanP Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:18 pm
===87% favorable for Trump. Ugh.===

This is a poll of Republicans who are likely to vote in the primary. This is not a poll of all voters in the district.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:19 pm
= seventh-generation farmer from Rossville and advocate for reduced spending=

Darren E Duncan USDA received $940,000 in subsidies since 1995.

https://farm.ewg.org/persondetail.php?custnumber=A03120340

Comment by Live Wire Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:23 pm
“Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 87%
Unfavorable: 8%
No opinion: 5%

Q2: What is your opinion of J.B. Pritzker?

Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 76%
No opinion: 18%“

So you are saying the Democratic Party has a chance.

Comment by Kyle Hillman Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:41 pm
Since I live in the 15th district I hope Undecided wins in a landslide.

Comment by Gruntled University Employee Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 12:49 pm
=Darren E Duncan USDA received $940,000 in subsidies since 1995=

That equates to $37,000 and change per year over 25 years. 18 or 20 years of saving all of that cash would buy one combine.

This is chump change. Candidates choosing to run AGAINST the ag community in this district are DOA.

Comment by Say What? Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 1:26 pm
==Candidates choosing to run AGAINST the ag community in this district are DOA.==

True. He is in favor of reduced spending, he probably won’t vote to cut farm handouts.

==That equates to $37,000 and change per year over 25 years…This is chump change.==

Median household income in Illinois is about $63,000, save 59% of income and you get the $37,000. Far from chump change.

Comment by Live Wire Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 1:44 pm
==This is chump change.==
Per capita annual income in Illinois 2017 per American Community Survey is $32,924.

Comment by 17% Solution Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 1:47 pm
==Darren E Duncan USDA received $940,000 in subsidies since 1995.==

And the Millers have received 750k.

There are no more direct payments. Those were written out of the last farm bill. But, go ahead and attack farmers some more.

Comment by Token Conservative Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 1:59 pm
== But, go ahead and attack farmers some more.==
It’s not attacking farmers to point out some of them make good socialists.

Comment by 17% Solution Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 2:12 pm
I have no problem with Farmers. Agriculture is an important economic sector nationwide. I am just noticing that a candidate wants to cut government spending (a nice goal) while being the beneficiary of government spending.

There may not be direct payments but the spigot has not been turned off

https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/agriculture/subsidies

Comment by Live Wire Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 2:24 pm
Two state solution is big in this district.
Why I have no idea.

Comment by Big foot Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 4:27 pm
In the context of running a 1,500 - 2,000 acre farming operation, it is in fact very little money.

The winner here will almost certainly be Miller or Duncan. A non issue in this District. Move along.

Comment by Say What? Monday, Dec 16, 19 @ 4:31 pm
The early farm subsidy silliness? Gotta love the hypocrisy

Comment by Elliott Ness Tuesday, Dec 17, 19 @ 7:23 am