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* NBC 5…
Illinois’ population shrunk by more than any other state from 2010 to 2019, according to data released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Since the beginning of the decade, Illinois has lost 159,751 residents which equals 1.2% of its population. Only one other state, West Virginia, had a higher percentage of population loss at 3.3%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In 2019, Illinois’ population shrunk by more than 51,000 residents - the largest drop out of any state from 2018 to 2019, data revealed. […]
Nationwide, the U.S. population from the middle of 2018 to the middle of 2019 grew by almost a half percent, or about 1.5 million people, according to the data.
* Tribune…
In examining population trends in Illinois over the past year, the Tribune found that a decrease in the number of people moving to Illinois from other states and countries has exacerbated the impact of declining birthrates and increasing numbers of people moving out of the state.
The data released Monday shows that the state’s well-known problems with domestic migration losses (losing residents to other states) were slightly mitigated by positive net international migration. Arrivals to Illinois from other countries outnumbered international departures, causing Illinois to gain about 1.5 people per 1,000 residents. But domestically, more people left Illinois for another state than the reverse, causing a loss of about 8.3 people per 1,000. That rate was the fourth worst for any state in 2019, behind New York, Hawaii and Alaska.
When the domestic and international migration rates are combined, the flow of people into and out of Illinois caused a net migration loss of about 6.8 people per 1,000 residents in the past year.
The new numbers offer only net migration estimates and do not allow comparisons between how many people left Illinois and how many moved in. But in September, the Tribune reported that Illinois ranked worse nationally on attracting new residents from other countries and states than on losing residents to other states.
* Illinois Policy Institute…
If Illinois had simply kept pace with the average state population growth since the start of the Great Recession in 2007, when Illinois’ labor force was at its peak, the state’s population would be 1.14 million residents, or 9%, larger than it is today. This increase in population would yield an economy that is at least an estimated $78 billion larger than today, equivalent to the entire state economy of Delaware.
Counter-points from Jake…
As you read stories about Illinois’ population loss, remember — the last time more Americans moved into Illinois than out of it was **1920**
This and more important context from @CTBA_online https://t.co/glkOtaZDWb
— jake lewis (@jake____lewis) December 30, 2019
Illinois’ net outmigration seems to have peaked in 2017, slowly improving over the last two years https://t.co/1hb4HMZd8A https://t.co/MTYZ1tl066
— jake lewis (@jake____lewis) December 30, 2019
* Also…
Illinois illustrates what is likely to be a dramatic shift of political power away from rural regions and toward the big metro areas. Of the state’s 102 counties, 93 lost population in the last decade. The only substantial gainers are counties in the Chicago suburbs, as residents leave the big city for cheaper real estate and safer streets.
When Illinois loses one of its 18 House districts, legislators are likely to eliminate one of the six districts that represents a downstate area — five of which are held by Republicans.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 10:50 am
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Now, if the IPI can somehow tie this into a 2nd Amendment thing, then, they’ll really have something.
Comment by efudd Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 10:57 am
Zero proposals from Democrats to attract and retain businesses in Illinois will continue this trend
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 10:57 am
=== As you read stories about Illinois’ population loss, remember — the last time more Americans moved into Illinois than out of it was **1920**===
This is far more of an interesting tidbit than “everyone is leaving”.
Wordslinger has it right about Illinois outward migration, “air conditioning”, and at one point Alabama having more people than Florida.
My bigger concern is the fiscal health of Illinois now, and the plans of this administration in the coming 3 fiscal years of this term.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:04 am
Strange how Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan haven’t lost population and are actually adding jobs due to air conditionIng
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:07 am
Rural economic development strategy to encourage population growth: county board decides to say to anyone who moves in, the county will put them on the county employee health insurance plan and pay for all their medical bills.
Comment by Dan Johnson Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:08 am
My questions are;
what counties/cities did people move out from?
Where did they move to?
And is there any data to substantiate their political persuasion?
Comment by CCrider Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:12 am
Hasn’t it been a case too that the estimates for year-to-year loss are usually higher than what is happening in reality? Or maybe I’m just confounding headlines about out-migration again. I swear we’ve had headlines each year which peg the loss at 100K+
There’s really no spinning this as ‘good’ in either case, just not as devastating as the usual crowd/news sell it as.
Comment by Nick Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:12 am
As a middle of the road guy, the IPI exhausts me. Where are the solutions as a think-tank. It just seems like finger-pointing to me.
Comment by Alfred Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:13 am
Also interesting is that the only downstate counties with any real growth I think are… Champaign and McLean? Further sign I think that come redistricting you’ll just get a super 13th district which dips into the Democratic parts of Metroeast.
Comment by Nick Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:17 am
This is hilarious. Says “taxes aren’t a problem” but states that access to better job markets is a reason why people leave Illinois. Anybody want to guess if those “better job markets” are in high or low tax states? Quite simple: property taxes and workers comp are cheaper elsewhere…no wonder the better job markets are outside Illinois.
Comment by anon Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:18 am
When I was a youth Illinois had 24 Congresspersons. After this census they’ll be down to 17. Startling.
Comment by Stones Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:19 am
=== Champaign and McLean===
I think those counties have state universities.
When the Raunerites … like Demmer … and Barickman …continually voted not to fully fund state universities, makes you wonder how smart these Raunerites are, as they hurt Illinois and ignored voting for the full funding of state universities.
Thank goodness those areas are overcoming Raunerites like Demmer and Barickman as we see a continuation of outward migration.., since 1920.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:22 am
the map process will be a real political theatre.. fun to watch..
Comment by NotRich Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:22 am
=== Strange how Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan haven’t lost population and are actually adding jobs due to air conditionIng===
And yet… you’re still in Illinois.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:26 am
=== continue this trend===
… since the 1920s…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:27 am
=== the map process will be a real political theatre ===
It’s going to be fun alright.
If Dems are aggressive enough they could create a 14-3 Dem map with every Dem district having voted for Clinton. Though they probably wouldn’t be comfortable with how unsafe that makes some of their incumbents.
Goodbye Rodney Davis, that’s for sure.
Comment by Nick Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:27 am
What happened between 2010-11 and 2013-14? Those two years saw the most drastic drops.
Comment by City Zen Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:27 am
- attract and retain businesses -
Guess you missed all those huge lines at a bunch of completely new businesses January 1st.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:28 am
I have yet to hear a response from any Democrat on what they are doing to address this problem. The only thing I’ve heard so far is that it was Rauner’s fault. That excuse is really getting old.
Comment by Just Me Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:31 am
“Of the state’s 102 counties, 93 lost population in the last decade.”
What is the leading economic export of those 93 counties? High School Graduates. What seems to be the main political preoccupation for many of those 93 counties? Gun sanctuary status.
Comment by Anyone Remember Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:31 am
=== What happened between 2010-11 and 2013-14? Those two years saw the most drastic drops. ===
Not sure where you’re seeing that.
The state actually grew from 2010-2013 and has only started losing people since 2014. Out migration only started accelerating in 2014.
Some of this I’d speculate is that during national economic downturns people actually might be less apt to move. Less funds available to pay for moving, less jobs available elsewhere to justify it.
Comment by Nick Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:33 am
Also this may be hackish, but multiple years of budget impasse and constant hemming around a fiscal cliff which devastating the University System as pointed out, likely weren’t a positive factor for retaining population.
Not that Rauner can actually be blamed given every other problem, but why would anyone feel positive about staying in the state from like 2015-2018? When even the state’s own governor was doing nothing but trash us constantly?
Comment by Nick Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:35 am
City Zen - 2013-2014? Polar vortex.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-confidential-snow-population-drop-1218-biz-20141217-column.html
Comment by Anyone Remember Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:36 am
Go back to 2003 if you want to see when the wheels fell off Illinois
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:40 am
Mr/Ms LP you asked “Zero proposals from Democrats to attract and retain businesses in Illinois will continue this trend”
Untrue…Ds tossed GovJunk, raised wages, legalized dope and launched huge public works. Looking forward to more GOPie “consolidation” in 2020…beat goes on. Feel free to offer and helpful ideas you have in your bag of tricks
Comment by Annonin Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 11:41 am
So how many people retired in Illinois during same time period and moved south. Again a very misleading statistic.
Comment by Truthteller Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:05 pm
Perhaps make it easier for in-state high schoolers to attend in-state public universities. If they go to school in Illinois, there’s a greater chance they’ll stay in Illinois after graduation.
Comment by Steve Rogers Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:06 pm
“Zero proposals from Democrats…” Translation: “Zero proposals that I agree with..”
Comment by Skeptic Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:10 pm
Tossed “Governor Junk” and yet the exodus accelerates?
Perhaps the focus should shift to creating an environment where college graduates, who could work anywhere, choose to live in Illinois, because the state is growing jobs and incomes are rising
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:13 pm
“And yet… you’re still in Illinois.”
Won’t be when my kid is out of high school in 2 years. People who attempt to spin the population loss are the ones wearing blinders.
Comment by Valley City Roller Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:18 pm
=== Won’t be when…===
Then please just go and take your yelling at clouds from your porch with you.
No one is “blind” or has blinders, the “I know” crowd knows less and less then they think, and if you’re gonna go, go.
Yapping about he smart you think you are is the reason we won’t miss you, LOL
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:21 pm
== What happened between 2010-11 and 2013-14? Those two years saw the most drastic drops. ==
I assume this refers to the graph of domestic population change in the Austin Berg tweet.
Census estimates numbers are from July 1 to June 30, the same as the Illinois fiscal year. The exception is in 2010 where there is an exact Census count on April 1 and an estimate on July 1. That’s why the graph says that 2010 only represents 3 months, and explains the jump between 2010 and 2011.
Keep in mind that in the early part of the decade housing prices were still recovering from the Great Recession. Homeowners with underwater property may have had to wait on plans to move until their home recovered sufficiently. Such pent-up demand to move would fuel increases in out-migration as prices improved. Combined with the reduced in-migration, especially to the collar counties, and that can account for the increase in net out-migration seen after 2013.
Comment by muon Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:34 pm
I didn’t hear anyone dog Illinois more than “moderate” Republican Governor Bruce Rauner…for a fact.
Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:38 pm
Close to retiring and close down a 47 year old family business which employees 15 people and move to Murfeesburo TN area
Main reason is the taxes in the state,cost of living and the weather.
Comment by DoubleDown Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:53 pm
Alfred,
The IPI “solutions” are as follows:
Cuts to state worker pensions.
Elect Republicans.
Comment by btowntruthfromforgottonia Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:53 pm
“I have yet to hear a response from any Democrat on what they are doing to address this problem.”
Marijuana has been legalized, roads and bridges are being repaired, casinos will be built, etc. These bipartisan accomplishments will help lay the foundation for a thriving state.
What does it say about how bad the former governor and his supporters were, that Democrats were indispensable in passing more pro-business reforms in Pritzker’s first year than the past four years?
Forget trying to be a lower-income state like Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan. Minnesota is the highest-income state in the region and has been gaining population. California has the highest top state income tax rate in the country and it’s gaining population. Both states have higher median incomes than IPI-model states, and both have budget surpluses.
So, when are the professional Illinois Exodus screamers going to leave Illinois, or are they just going to continue screaming in futility for the next couple of years?
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 12:54 pm
== Close to retiring and close down a 47 year old family business which employees 15 people and move to Murfeesburo TN area.==
So rival business staying in Illinois can serve your former clients. How nice for them.
Comment by 17% Solution Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:01 pm
==Translation: “Zero proposals that I agree with..”==
True. Could also be translated as “Zero to offer in any discussion besides my tired old talking points and continued whining”
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:03 pm
==Go back to 2003 if you want to see when the wheels fell off Illinois==
Lol. Uh huh. Nothing to see before then. The wheels have been falling off for sometime now and anyone who had an honest bone in their body would realize that. Of course, that doesn’t fit your usual hyper-partisan narrative of “it’s all the Democrats fault.” You sure you aren’t Governor Rauner? You sure do whine like he did.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:05 pm
@17% Solution
Yes, will not effect the customers at all
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:06 pm
Sorry,
@17% Solution
Yes, will not effect the customers at all
Comment by DoubleDown Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:08 pm
===… you asked “Zero proposals from Democrats to attract and retain businesses in Illinois will continue this trend”===
Further?
Easy. Further, why was it when Ives “basically” proposed the IPI budget plan… why couldn’t that plan get 60 on the stairs?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:20 pm
I know two families with teenage kids about to/just entering high school. Both with good grades and interested in STEM careers. They aren’t moving but they are talking about out of state schools and which job markets might be better for them because of all the long term gloom they hear about the future. That report on the monopoly 4-5 cities have on new tech jobs is also alarming.
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:27 pm
Population will remain static at best, most likely continue to decline. Taxes will continue to increase. Not encouraging. Even OW anticipates having a different address in 5-10 years.
Comment by Looking down the Road Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:33 pm
=Close to retiring and close down a 47 year old family business which employees 15 people and move to Murfeesburo TN area
Main reason is the taxes in the state,cost of living and the weather.=
Retiring? So that probably means you are in your 60’s or 70’s right? So health care may be important at some point. Good luck with that in Tennessee.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:38 pm
1.2% is not such a big number for such a large and populous state. Baby boomers are retiring, millennials aren’t having large families and barriers to legal immigration keeps going up.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:39 pm
=== Taxes will continue to increase. Not encouraging. Even … anticipates having a different address in 5-10 years.===
(Sigh)
I do. But not because of, or driven by, taxes.
California? I’d like to head out there for selfish reasons, even outside golf.
South Carolina? Tennessee? Weather. My hope is my health is ok, as Tennessee, outside the Vanderbilt Health Systems is downright awful, and South Carolina isn’t the second coming of Boston or Chicago when it comes to hospitals.
Texas? Family. They also remind me of the 90+ days of 90 degrees or warmer. So hot things in your car melt.
I’m not leaving by being driven out by taxes. Nope.
I will miss not being here, but I’m not the “in-law” relative ruining every family gathering opining about leaving Illinois with everyone hoping they aren’t stuck talking to me about it.
On the lighter side, if there was a property on the SC coast with a golf course seaside and a Waffle House adjacent… I’ll hear those options, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 1:44 pm
Property taxes on a $320,000.00 single family 3 bed, 2 bathroom house (or slightly larger), built after the year 2000:
Tacoma, WA - $3,661.00
Sacramento, CA - $3,600.00
Ft Collins, CO - $1,291.00
Grand Rapids, MI - $1,910.00
Charlotte, NC - $2,903.00
Charlottesville, VA - $2,512.00
Lincoln, IL - $7,600.00
Springfield, IL - $7,070.00
Peoria, IL - $7,800.00
Decatur, IL - $8,300.00
Comment by Merica Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 2:11 pm
It is true that net domestic migration has been negative for a century, but that doesn’t explain the current overall decline. For decades Illinois could count on first Chicago and Cook then the collar counties to provide sufficient in-migration, so that the state grew as a whole despite losses in rural areas. The Tribune article last year shows that both parts of Chicagoland have faded over the last 20 years. (https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-census-chicago-cook-county-population-decline-20190408-story.html).
The collars not only grew but their rate of growth due to migration increased until the beginning of the Millenium. Starting around 2001 the rate of net migration growth in the collars started dropping, finally reaching zero migration growth around 2009. Since then the collars have had net migration decreases.
Cook county somewhat balanced that during the period from 2007 to 2013 when its net migration losses were not as steep as in the first part of the 2000s. By 2014 Cook was again losing population to out-migration at the earlier rate, and Illinois started seeing overall population declines each year.
Chicagoland makes up roughly 70% of the state’s population, so population changes there will dominate the changes in the state overall. Until there is a sustained source of in-migration growth for either Cook or the collars, it seems unlikely that Illinois will reverse the current trend.
Comment by muon Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 2:14 pm
==1.2% is not such a big number==
True, but it’s all relative. When West Virginia is your performance metric, things can’t be that great.
Comment by City Zen Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 2:43 pm
Weather and retirement are big factors in outmigration. Retirees from Illinois who move to a warmer state that has lower taxes have higher incomes on average. Earning a lifetime of lower income from an IPI-model state is a disadvantage. Where are we going with a lifetime of lower incomes and less benefits? There should be some gratitude to Illinois, where people earn higher incomes and have more money in retirement.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 2:43 pm
“Tacoma, WA - $3,661.00″
Sales Tax: Tacoma WA, 10.20%. So there’s that as well.
Comment by Skeptic Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 3:26 pm
@skeptic - It’s 14% in parts of the loop.
Comment by Taxyourwaytoprosperity Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 6:31 pm
Skeptic - Sales taxes in many Illinois towns including Chicago are nearly or more than 10% so I am not sure I see what point you are making there.
Comment by Captain Obvious Monday, Jan 6, 20 @ 6:43 pm
Merica,
Let’s see some numbers regarding the square footages on the houses you picked in the cities you listed. I’m not convinced you have engaged in an apples-to-apples comparison.
@ OW–feeling you there. I anticipate the robots taking my job in 5-7 years. Not sure where I’ll land when it happens,
Comment by Lynn S. Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 1:53 am
I left Illinois for South Carolina, not because of taxes, I moved for better weather. Taxes a low here, I paid $850 property tax on my home that is worth more than the home in Illinois that I was paying $5,000 per year. I bought a new car when I moved here that I paid about $45,000 for, the sale tax was $600.00. Thats the max sales tax on cars in SC, you could buy a $100,000 Porche and only pay $600 sales tax. I do pay personal property tax on the value of my cars, if I had a boat or airplane they would be taxed too.
All that said, I learned you get what you pay for The infrastructure here is crumbling, there’s not enough roads to accommodate all the people moving here. When I drive at night here there’s little to no lighting, feels like a third world country at night.
Comment by Pacman Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 6:44 am
== All that said, I learned you get what you pay for.==
And when the people have enough they will demand more services and then the taxes will be raised.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 6:58 am
“All that said, I learned you get what you pay for”
Very important to consider. Pay less taxes, get less public goods and services. Also make less money. The lower tax states certain people trot out as models for Illinois also have lower incomes—much lower median incomes in Indiana and Tennessee (bottom 10 in ranking).
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 7:40 am
Imagine how good Illinois’ population growth and job creation numbers would look if we could only take the advice of the economic geniuses in the Eastern Bloc and kick out Chicagoland.
Comment by CEA Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 8:17 am
“When I drive at night here there’s little to no lighting, feels like a third world country at night.”
I drive through a number of Chicago suburbs where this is true as well.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 8:59 am