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* Illinois has lost at least one congressional seat after all but one decennial census since World War II…
* And we will likely lose another one…
An analysis of population trends now suggests Illinois will only lose one seat in Congress. […]
When the Census is completed and the districts are redrawn in 2021, Kimball Brace with Election Data Services said Illinois is on track to lose one Representative. Previous estimates suggested Illinois could lose two seats.
“In relation to other states, Illinois is only looking at the possibility of losing one seat, not really two seats,” Brace said.
Because Central and Southern Illinois lost a higher percentage of the population than the Democratically-held Chicago-area congressional districts, it’s likely a Republican-held seat will be dissolved.
* From the study…
Election Data Services created a variety of different methodologies to project the 2019 data forward nine months (from the July1, 2019 date of the Census estimates) to April 1, 2020 (several short-term projection methods for the trend occurring in 2018-2019, and 2017-2019, a middle term methodology using the 2015-2019 trend, and a long-term projection for 2011-2019). The different methodologies benefit some states and disadvantage others in the “musical-chairs” effort of allocating 435 seats to the 50 states. All the methods would add a second seat for Florida and a third seat for Texas, to the list of states noted above that will gain one or more seats by 2020. The list of losing states will expand to also include Alabama and Ohio, by the time the Census is taken in 2020. A map showing the 2020 projected apportionment using the 2018-2019 trend is attached. Because all the projection models produce the same state overall results in seats as the 2018-2019 trend map, only the tables of the calculations for the different projection models are attached so that how close states are to changes can be observed. […]
Previous Election Data Services studies have hinted that the states of Illinois and New York might be in a position to each lose a second seat by 2020. However, these new Census numbers seem to indicate this will not be the case, with both states just losing a single seat each. […]
Using any methodology, the population projections points toward a ten (10) seat change over 17 states across the nation by year 2020. States that will gain single seats include Arizona, Colo- rado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon, while Florida is set to gain two congressional districts and Texas would gain three seats. Single seat losses will again occur in the Midwest and Northeast sections of the nation, where Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minne- sota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia would each lose a seat. All other states would keep the same number of representatives they were awarded in December 2010 when the official 2010 Census numbers were released.
* The gainers…
Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Colorado +1 (from 7 to
Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)
North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)
* The losers…
Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
California -1 (from 53 to 52)
Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -1 (from 27 to 26)
Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)
* Meanwhile, this is from Bloomberg…
More…
The adjusted gross income of Illinois taxpayers who didn’t migrate averaged $78,959. Illinois has been losing high-income residents (a lot of them retirees, one imagines) to Florida, middle-income residents to the South and West, and those with lower incomes to neighboring states. Also, the top two destinations for Illinois migrants are the top two for the nation as a whole, with Florida first, Texas second.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 11:24 am
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Wondering when the Chicken Little’s will acknowledge that Illinois’ population loss is downstate in Republican-led areas, not in the Democratic-led northeast. Maybe the map will force them to admit the truth.
Comment by DIstant watcher Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 11:36 am
Holy cow, an increase of 10 seats for Illinois between the 1860’s and the 1880’s. I wonder if newspapers in New England were editorializing about the Vermont Exodus?
Comment by Roman Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 11:41 am
If we increased the size of the US House from 435 (it has been there since 1920, I think), we likely wouldn’t lose a seat and our districts would be more reasonably sized.
Comment by Dan Johnson Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 11:41 am
===Vermont Exodus===
Illinois doubled its representation between 1843 and 1863. A large share of that were Irish immigrants.
Anybody who’d like to reverse our population declines should be in favor of more immigration. Communities that are growing and thriving economically. If we aren’t going to have more children, we need to welcome more people to Illinois somehow.
(pre-emptive rebuttal: I’m not arguing for so-called “open borders,” so please spare me)
“If everyone who wanted to migrate were able to do so, global GDP would double, estimates Michael Clemens of the Centre for Global Development, author of a forthcoming book, “The Walls of Nations”. No other policy change comes close to generating such colossal rewards. If there is $90 trillion a year up for grabs, you might think that policymakers would be feverishly devising ways to get a piece of it. They are not.”
https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/11/14/to-make-the-world-richer-let-people-move
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 11:56 am
Georgia, Colorado, and Tennessee being in the top 10 is interesting.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:04 pm
Before 1970, when Illinois had no state income tax and a bigger say in the U.S. House of Representatives. It also appears that some wealthier taxpayers prefer Florida’s tax structure to Illinois’, according to the data Rich put up.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:14 pm
Which right-wing talking point will come out of this? “Fair Maps” or “taxes driving population decline.” Place your bets.
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:16 pm
=== Illinois had no state income tax===
Illinois is not going to abolish the income tax.
So there’s that.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:17 pm
-Illinois is not going to abolish the income tax-
The Florida economic development officials know this.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:26 pm
As in most things follow the money - in this case the extra money saved by moving to a lower tax state.
Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:43 pm
=== in this case the extra money saved by moving to a lower tax state.====
Explain Illinois losing seats in 1943, 1953, 1963… before Illinois had no income tax.
Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:45 pm
-Explain Illinois losing seats in 1943, 1953, 1963… before Illinois had no income tax.-
There were more no income tax states back then. Plus, those were some good years for Paul Ricca’s organization/unions which many didn’t want to experience first hand.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 12:51 pm
=== There were more no income tax states back then. Plus, those were some good years for Paul Ricca’s organization/unions which many didn’t want to experience first hand.===
“Because unions?”
Is that you Bruce Rauner? LOL
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:03 pm
I would love to see the average age of the folks that moved to Florida. My hunch is it would back up the assumption it is primarily folks retiring.
Comment by Montrose Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:17 pm
=The Florida economic development officials know this.=
Yeah, their big plan is for the sun to keep shining. But, if the waters rise what is their plan?
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:19 pm
It’s a given IL loses a seat and it will likely be a Republican seat, most likely the current 15th district seat that will be held by a freshman Republican this time next year.
But the 17 remaining districts will have to become bigger, too. Could be interesting what the current 14th, 16th & 17th might look like, especially with the Bustos seat having little choice but becoming more Republican?
Some say the 14th district, assuming Underwood wins a 2nd term as expected, will be difficult to make safer for her in spite of Madigan’s proven mapmaking legerdemain.
Be interesting to see what the Democrats do.
Comment by John Lopez Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:49 pm
Stories of retirees going to FL, TX, AZ, and TN are common and there’s not really anything to do about them, except wait for rising seas or climate-change induced droughts to encourage people back to where they have dry feet and wet taps.
Again, our best argument for in-migration is to take care of roads, education, and the less fortunate while we work off our debt. A wealthy, well-run, and well-educated state will remain attractive for business.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:51 pm
=== Be interesting to see what the Democrats do.===
(Sigh)
Dems will make 6 and 14 more Democratic leaning, eliminate 15 entirely, make Bustos seat stronger for her, and reduce the GOP/Trump seats to 4, following tends.
All you need to do is look at Raja’s district and it’s own evolution.
This isn’t all a mystery or rocket science, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:56 pm
Few things are monocausual . But, when bad causes start adding up people start voting with their feet.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:56 pm
=== Few things are monocausual===
Hmm…
===Plus, those were some good years for Paul Ricca’s organization/unions which many didn’t want to experience first hand.===
What, you backing away from your passive organized crime thingy by saying it was “unions”
Time to change your tinfoil, your hat is sending you wacky signals.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 1:59 pm
@Montrose
==I would love to see the average age of the folks that moved to Florida. My hunch is it would back up the assumption it is primarily folks retiring.==
What you really would want to see is the median age, rather than the average: https://www.quora.com/Why-is-median-better-than-average.
Comment by Romeo Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 2:12 pm
==our best argument for in-migration is to take care of roads, education, and the less fortunate while we work off our debt.==
But I keep hearing how much better the roads are here than down South, we continue to spend more on education than the most of the country, and the less fortunate are probably better off here than most other states. We do and have been doing these things for decades. You’ve got me on debt.
Maybe revive the “Illinois, you put me in a happy state” marketing plan?
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 2:19 pm
==But the 17 remaining districts will have to become bigger, too. Could be interesting what the current 14th, 16th & 17th might look like, especially with the Bustos seat having little choice but becoming more Republican?
Some say the 14th district, assuming Underwood wins a 2nd term as expected, will be difficult to make safer for her in spite of Madigan’s proven mapmaking legerdemain.=
I can see the new 17th swap out Rockford for either more of Peoria, Normal (ISU), Macomb (WIU), and/or maybe even part of Springfield (Bustos’ hometown).
With the new 14th strengthening Underwood’s seat by adding D-leaning areas in Rockford and DeKalb (NIU), among others. I can see that happening too.
Comment by Leatherneck Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 2:26 pm
=But I keep hearing how much better the roads are here than down South…the less fortunate are probably better off here than most other states. ===
CZ, I don’t think we know any of these things for sure. However, we know we currently do these things poorly. I’m sure you recall headlines on the reasons for the gas tax and more recently DCFS and waiting lists for disabled folks. Doing better on these, improving funding for education and retaining high school graduates, and delivering state services more efficiently, and paying our debts are about all we can do. Trying to be like Mississippi didn’t work, and we don’t have the tourists to be Florida.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 2:31 pm
Looks like the population losers are primarily rust belt states. Could this be a combination of boomers retiring and moving to states like FL and AZ and the large loss of manufacturing jobs in the midwest? Me thinks so.
Comment by Boone's is Back Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 3:05 pm
Jibba - I’m referencing numerous commenters here recently claimed the South has horrible infrastructure and health care. Yet despite these drawbacks, people keep flocking there.
==improving funding for education==
Illinois already spends more than 3 out of 4 states on K-12 education. Outside of the northeast, you’d be hard pressed to find another state that spends more than us. How does spending even more change the outcome when we’ve already been spending more?
==Trying to be like Mississippi didn’t work==
I thought we were trying to be Tennessee? It worked for Tennessee.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 4:38 pm
===It worked for Tennessee.===
If it wasn’t for federal taxpayers from wealthier states like Illinois, you wouldn’t be able to plug in an air conditioner in Tennessee.
You low tax, free riding “conservatives” make me wish we had better public education. I can’t tell if it’s plain old ignorance, or the willful kind, but knee-jerk opposition to taxes is a sign of a shallow and selfish mind.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 5:02 pm
Illinois Republican congressional candidates in the Chicago suburbs could stand to gain from losing a second seat.
Comment by Lowden Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 5:54 pm
-What, you backing away from your passive organized crime thingy by saying it was “unions”
-Time to change your tinfoil, your hat is sending you wacky signals.- Backing away.
Facts are stubborn things. A lot factory businesses have headed to right to work states. OW : your name calling shows your anger and your weakness in defending the Illinois status quo you are so proud of.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 6:38 pm
- Steve -
Dude, you brought up a mobster from the 1940s and 50s
That’s as looney as that goofy blog you keep linking here, lol
=== …your name calling shows…===
… suffering your foolishness is tiring and not much adding, like not fully grasping the whole Hurricane McQueary and your respect for “her writing”
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 6:49 pm
==If it wasn’t for federal taxpayers from wealthier states like Illinois, you wouldn’t be able to plug in an air conditioner in Tennessee.==
That’s restaurant quality.
Comment by Jocko Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 6:52 pm
FYI. Union membership in Illinois in 2017 was at 15%. 2018 it was 13.8%. Waiting for 2019 numbers. This decline, despite one of the most robust economies of my lifetime, says it all. It ain’t the unions that are decimating Illinois.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 9:10 pm
OW
You really are bitter. The constant personal attacks on people . How sad.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 10:02 pm
- Steve -
Move on. Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 10:07 pm
*Blue Dog Dem*
More specifically, public sector union bosses and their coherts in the GA are responsible for a death spiral. When we lose high and middle income residents to FL, TX, IN, WI because of high taxes, we losr our tax base.
Comment by Lowden Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 10:21 pm
*Steve*
OW was the same guy that said the losing congressional seats didn’t effect democratic influence in Washington. Has this guy ever heard of electoral votes?
Comment by Lowden Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 10:24 pm
=== democratic influence in Washington===
(Sigh)
Sen. Durbin is still #2 in the Senate.
Keep up.
LOL
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 10:28 pm
=== When we lose high and middle income residents to FL, TX, IN, WI because of high taxes, we losr our tax base.===
Narrator: Illinois has been losing population since the 1943 census.
===a death spiral===
.., and yet foreign investment has Chicago #1 for the seventh year in a row.
That’s what a death spiral looks like?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 10:31 pm
===Illinois has been losing population since the 1943 census.
Incorrect. Illinois started losing our proportion of population compared to other states since then. It is only in the last 4-5 years Illinois has lost population. Over the last ten years there has still been modest increases.
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Jan 9, 20 @ 11:30 pm
==== Illinois started losing our proportion of population compared to other states since then.===
That is most correct. Thank you.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 10, 20 @ 7:10 am