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* Via Bill Dennis, Jim McConoughey is a Republican candidate in the race to replace retiring Republican Ray LaHood and has released a new poll…
As the race stands today, among those voters who have a definite opinion of whom they would support, Aaron Shock garners 23%, Jim McConoughey garners 6.6% and John Morris is at 2.6%. The key point is that 67.8% of likely Republican primary voters are not firmly committed to any one candidate.
The key driver in Schock’s early lead is simply name identification. Of likely voters in next year’s primary, 51% of voters have “heard of” and have a “formed opinion” of Schock, while McConoughey’s number stands at 19.6% and Morris is at 19.2%.
* After biographies were read to the respondents (no bios supplied yet) the poll shows these numbers…
McConoughey Bio – 37.8%
Aaron Schock Bio – 29.4%
John Morris Bio – 13.4%
Undecided – 17.2%
Refused – 2.2%
* Methodology….
The survey was conducted September 10-11, among 500 Illinois voters in the 18th Congressional District who indicated they were likely to cast a Republican ballot in the primary next February. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%
* Schock also polled this district back in late August, when incumbent Ray LaHood’s son was still considering the race. The trendlines, such as they are, are below, with the more recent McConoughey’s results listed first…
McConoughey – 6.6/3
Aaron Schock – 23/44
Darin LaHood - WD/22
John Morris – 2.6/3
Undecided – 67.8/30
* Make of this what you will, but if McConoughey releases a strong financial report this month then it will be much easier to make his case that getting his message out is what he needs to win.
There are very high expectations for Schock’s fundraising abilities, so McConoughey’s financial success, or lack thereof, is a crucial issue here. If he has no money - or if he’s buried by Schock’s cash - there will be no message.
* The most prominent Democratic candidate is, of course, Dick Versace, whose campaign kickoff event didn’t go over well with several people who covered it, including Bernie Schoenburg…
However, the idea that his life has taught Versace something he can pass on to voters was turned on its head at the end of the session. That’s when Versace, whose campaign manager recently moved in from Washington, D.C., refused to answer questions from reporters.
Well, if Versace has life experience, he probably has opinions on things like gun control and abortion and health care, not to mention how to get the U.S. out of a war he said he wants to end. He said he wants to hear from voters during a listening tour before giving his views on the issues, on the grounds that, if people knew he had views already, why would they want to talk to him?
How silly. People give their two cents’ worth to politicians all the time, on a wide range of issues they care about, hoping to reinforce or change policy decisions. The abrupt end to the event was clearly a gimmick to keep Versace from saying the wrong thing. The tactic also kept news outlets from providing a better picture of a first-time candidate who voters know nothing about except that he’s been big in basketball.
It’s bad enough when the governor plays games and walks away with mouth shut. It’s not smart for a new candidate seeking to introduce himself to do the same thing.
Basketball is a game. Representing people in Congress shouldn’t be.
* More here…
Versace tells audiences that he’s not a career politician. A experienced politician — such as Ray LaHood, for example, or two of the people running the GOP nomination — would not be so foolish as to enter a race not willing and able to discuss the issues on day one of the campaign.
* And here…
“If I answer questions on issues today, the people who I’m going to go visit would say, ‘What do you need to see us for? We already know where you stand,’” Versace told reporters during a contentious Springfield news conference formally launching his long-expected candidacy.
When pressed by reporters for some hint of his stance on issues, Versace responded: “I don’t want to debate this with you. I’ll tell you what: Your question deserves an answer, and I’m going to give you an answer. But it’s not going to be today. OK?”
Discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 1:57 pm
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“After biographies were read…’
McConoughey helped bring 100 jobs to Peoria.
McConoughey only brought 100 jobs to Peoria.
Now that you know about McConoughey how do you rate him?
Please. Give us all a break.
Comment by True Observer Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 2:20 pm
Schock’s fundraising abilities should be watched closely when he files. He has largely been funded by individuals with large donations, PACs, and party leadership funds in every race that he has run. Federal laws are much more restrictive and will force him to do real fundraising rather than sucking at the teet of an elite few and party leaders. He may be fine and prove to be capable of bringing in big money, but that isn’t a given. I’m anxiously awaiting that first filing…
Comment by the sonderboy Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 2:20 pm
It’s hard to see how Schock won’t be in Washington in 2009. He would have to really mess up.
This looks to be heading for the done deal/not news category.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 2:30 pm
So Versace wants to be a Rod Blagojevich Democrat - tells people he has all the answers then refuses to answer questions. I don’t think that will work when you don’t have the State of Illinois treasury available to pay to spread your message hither and yon through the media.
Dick, you are not going to be allowed to BS the voters like you would a bunch of basketball recruits. Go back to game playing.
How silly, indeed.
Comment by Emulate Rod Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 2:34 pm
This is McConoughey’s to lose. Schock may have name ID in Peoria, but this district is much bigger than Peoria.
People may have reservations about electing a 26 year-old to Congress, outside of his State Rep district.
Comment by The Shadow Knows... Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 2:46 pm
Emulate Rod -
Good call. Versace is acting just like Rod Blagojevich…
Comment by SalukiDog Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 2:56 pm
I don’t blame Versace one bit. He said he hadn’t formed an opinion on key issues yet, was waiting to talk with the people before he shared them. What’s wrong with that? The media, including Bernie, are upset because he DIDN’T give them an opportunity to pounce on him. Based on what I read, he handled himself well. Like a guy who knows what the media can do if left to their own devices.
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:00 pm
And by not answering any questions, he left them to those devices…
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:22 pm
I have to disagree with the Kettle. Once McConoughey has the opportunity to tell his story, his accomplishements, etc., most people will see he is the best qualified for the job. Whether he can overcome Schock’s “golden-boy” persona and actually get elected is probably another story. We don’t always elect the most-qualified…sometimes we elect the most popular.
Comment by Pekin Tom Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:31 pm
Joe- totally disagree, this makes him look like he’s letting polling make his policy decisions for him. It shows a lack of leadership. It’s a fine line between listening to your constituents and letting polling drive policy. I think he def crossed the line on this one. Bad start.
He kinda came out and said, “Hey, I wanna be your rep.” I think voters might like to hear why, and what goals he intends to pursue.
Comment by Gene Parmesan Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:31 pm
What Shock needs to do is start promoting himself as “The Old Pro”. Compared to the opposition, he is the old pro on how to work within a government entity, run a campaign, meet with citizens, ask for votes, and collect campaign cash.
It would be a memorable slogan too, wouldn’t it? While he would be generations younger than Versace, Shock would be seen as the “old pro” who knows this District!
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:41 pm
Versace will need to retool. but
He will not need to explain:
Bush
Cheney
Scooter
Rove
Craig, etc.
That should level the playing field a whole lot.
Comment by Reddbyrd Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:50 pm
Reddbyrd makes a good point. Versace will retool and become a viable candidate whose platform will be to teel off on Bush, Cheney, et al.
Schock is going to have to broaden his environment to DC issues and will not be able to rely on his wonderboy status in the state capitol to carry him to DC.
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 3:57 pm
Versace looked silly. And the SJ-R isn’t exactly a pro-Republican newspaper. He should have never dodged questions, because if he were a Republican and had done so, moveon.org, the DailyKos and every other left-leaning group and blog would have been calling him to task. Instead, he looks like someone who isn’t prepared to be a candidate.
I think this is Schock’s to lose. He’s only 26 and has already been elected twice in a state rep district that is Democratic-dominated. If he loses the primary, I would be shocked.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 4:12 pm
I’m just not buying the idea that these congressional candidates are going to have to explain Bush, Cheney, etc. Balderman and Schock aren’t incumbents, they didn’t cast a vote on Iraq. Are they going to feel some effects? Absolutely. They word “Republican” is toxic in this country. But is a reporter from Peoria going to ask Schock to explain Alberto Gonzalez when Schock’s been in the GA? Don’t get me wrong, I certainly agree that there will be a trickle-down; there already has been. But I just can’t find any reason that all a Dem has to do is say ‘Bush’ and they can win in a walk, particularly when things are so bad locally.
Comment by Gene Parmesan Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 4:14 pm
Looks like a lack of courage for a former Bradley “Brave”.
Comment by Truth Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 5:38 pm
It would have been a little much to expect Versace to answer a host of detailed questions on day one, but a candidate for an office like Congress should be able to at least rattle off two or three big picture issues and give a broad sense of where they stand on those issues. If you don’t have any issues motivating you to run for office, then it seems like you’re just doing it for the glory. He could have probably said something as general as “get us out of Iraq, build a big wall on the Mexican border, and expand health care for children” (or whatever his actual views are on those issues) and it would have made some difference in the coverage.
Comment by Gus Frerotte's Clipboard Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 5:41 pm
This Versace deal reminds me of 1996, when Bob Kustra was running for the GOP nomination and his campaign was asked where the candidate stood on a recent controversial Senate vote.
The smarmy spokesman said “(h)e doesnt’t have to answer–he’s not a Senator.”
He lost, and deservedly so.
Comment by Pickwick Theatre Matinee Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 6:01 pm
Rich, you fell for Schock’s opponent’s spin in both of his state house races. Following your blog and fax, one would have never thought Schock had much of a chance in 2004 or 2006. You covered Schock like he was an interesting hopeful but in the end wasn’t going to win.
Your readers were in the dark about Schock’s strength in both races.
Here we go again. How can anyone fall for this ridiculous poll? How can serious journalism print this without even asking the name of the polling company to check their reputation? How can you print answers to push poll “bio” questions without the text of the bio questions stated?
No serious pollster,PAC or journalist gives any credence to these sorts of slanted questions, especially without asking who did the poll or what the questions were.
Schock’s poll was done by the same firm that does the Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling. The gold standard of polling. To put these anonymously conducted polling results next to Schock’s poll as if it is a track is ludicrous.
After three races where Schock won against all initial odds, how many times are you going to underestimate him at risk to your own credibility? You are too quick to pick up on Peoria fluff that has no substance.
One of your last posts on Schock said Schock was using his state campaign fund for his congressional race. You got that from a commenter who speculated such on Peoria Pundit. It was wholly untrue.
Have you ever published poll results before without stating the company that did the poll?
You ought to do a cursory investigation of observations on the 18th Dist race before you spread Schock’s opponents manure further. What you print ought to have some basic credibility.
Or you can continue to buy into to spin that will be proven wrong–by a longshot–yet again.
Comment by peorian Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 6:46 pm
“One of your last posts on Schock said Schock was using his state campaign fund for his congressional race. You got that from a commenter who speculated such on Peoria Pundit. It was wholly untrue.”
What was true is that Schock was running his federal campaign AND his state district office out of county party headquarters. What is also true is that the phone numbers for both both federal campaign and the state office were one and the same, which to me suggests a co-mingling of funds. If there is nothing wrong with this, why was there a scramble to move out the weekend after the Friday I reported on it?
Aaron Schock’s entire campaign is based almost entirely on the belief that his victory in the primary is absolutely assured. This is his very first primary battle. And I know that there are many serious voters and officials in the party who simply do not think the guy has what it takes to be a United States Congressman.
Comment by Billy Dennis Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 9:16 pm
Way to go Q-tip!
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 11, 07 @ 9:45 pm