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More from Weller’s district

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* New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann is Congressman Jerry Weller’s choice to replace him in DC. Baldermann had a couple of harsh words for his likely Democratic opponent yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson…

Baldermann also picked on Halvorsen’s part in the state’s budget mess.

“The last thing we need is that kind of dysfunction brought to Washington,” Baldermann said.

* But Weller could be a liability for Baldermann, as this excerpt hints…

Weller was supposed to appear at Monday’s breakfast with Baldermann, but cancelled because a family-related issue, said McLean County Republican Party Chairman John Parrott.

Weller’s retirement announcement came amid questions surrounding land investments in Nicaragua and the finances of his wife, a South American politician.

* Meanwhile, another GOP hopeful has dropped out of the race…

Homer Glen Mayor Jim Daley said his decision to withdraw his name from the pool of candidates interested in the 11th Congressional District seat vacated by U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller all came down to timing.

* And another one considers a bid…

Also Monday, a 30-year-old Chicago Republican announced he will vie for Weller’s seat.

Jimmy Lee, who served on the White House Initiative on Asian and Pacific Islanders, has not previously held public office, but worked on Republican Jim Ryan’s 2002 campaign for governor and has served as an advisor to Dupage County Board President Bob Schillerstrom and former state Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka.

He said he is in the process of moving into the district, which stretches from Chicago’s south suburbs to Bloomington-Normal.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 9:32 am

Comments

VanillaMan I have to disagree, the problem is not the single party, its what the elected officials are doing or failing to do.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 9:59 am
OK, what do you think effects news and voters more, the Weller story or the Springfield situation? What makes people angrier?

If you believe Weller will stay an issue until the next election, then Balderman needs to explain why Weller is propping up his campaign. If you believe the Springfield meltdown will stay an issue until the next election, then Halvorson needs to start answering why she silently sat back as Majority Leader and did nothing, and she will have to explain why Emil Jones is propping up her campaign.

Weller is history, but could still be a campaign issue. The situation in Springfield is NOW and will return next year as an issue, so it will remain a campaign issue with more problems for Halvorson.

What reporters will do over the next year is keep Weller an issue throughout the campaign as it also keeps Blagojevich and Jones as issues too.

The Weller/Balderman relationship is fleeting, while the Jones/Halvorson relationship is 12 years old and well established. It will be easier for Balderman to dump Weller than it will be for Halvorson to dump Jones.

But the bottom line is which story effects voters more? I bet it is the rotten situation in Springfield and Halvorson’s role in it.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:02 am
The Pantagraph needs to get a new globe. Guatemala is part of Central America, not South America.

Comment by gulag Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:19 am
[…] Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 in Congressional Campaigns by robnesvacil Rich Miller opines: But Weller could be a liability for Baldermann, as this excerpt hints… Weller was supposed to appear at Monday’s breakfast with Baldermann, but cancelled because a family-related issue, said McLean County Republican Party Chairman John Parrott. [emphasis added] […]

Pingback by Understatement of the Year: Jerry Weller « Illinois Reason Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:25 am
Balderman is the wrong candidate. He is propped up by African American Alderman from Chicago. Check out his D-2s as mayor. The voters will see that he’s just wanting to consolodate more power for himself — mayor of one community, chief of police in another.

Comment by ShyGal Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 11:57 am
A Republican propped by by black Chicago alderman? How is that even possible?

Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 12:15 pm
Because he’s something of a RINO. As previously discussed, his donor list from past campaigns includes labor and Democrats… I would guess he’s really a Democrat hoping to gather votes from all of the confused Republicans.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 12:47 pm
Hey ShyGal-

I just looked at the D-2s. All I see is $1500 from former alderman Beavers. Is that what you are talking about? You think that means Baldermann is being “propped-up”? Are you serious?

Comment by Mad as Hell Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 1:02 pm
People blame Blagojevich almost entirely:
From Rasmussen:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_cont
ent/politics/election_2008__1/state_topline
s/illinois_toplines_august_23_2007

11* Who is most to blame for the government’s budget stalemate—Governor Rod Blagojevich, the state legislature, special interest groups, or voters?

53% Blagojevich
19% State Legislature
20% Special Interest Groups
2% Voters
7% Not Sure

The average voter isn’t the average outraged CapFax commenter.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 2:42 pm
That’s true, Larry, but the idea would be to tie her to Rod and hang him around her neck like an anvil. It’s not a difficult case to make, either.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 2:44 pm
Rod’s a problem, but it’s also someone she can run against. There is all this talk of Springfield, but by all accounts this is going to be a nationalized election on war and the Bush administration. Those are the top issues, state politics are secondary issues.

The difference between the two parties in Illinois is fairly easy exploit for Democrats. Democrats have no problem blasting Rod and using that to get credibility–and it’s fairly easy to do for Illinois Democrats because no one is going to balk if Halvorson attacks him–indeed others will pile on. It’s acceptable behavior in the Democratic Party.

The bigger anvil is George Bush who Balderman cannot run away from or he loses his base. He could run against him, but his base deserts him if he does. Bush is unpopular overall, but incredibly popular in his 30% of voters who think Iraq is just dandy and that the administration is Churchillian.

The vulnerable spot for Halvorson and her time in Springfield was the electric rate issue and that’s been resolved now.

It is a slight Republican lean and so it’ll be a close race, but the race won’t be a referendum on Springfield.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 3:01 pm
Rod is a problem for her and so is Emil jones. We could start with the chicago state scandal go to the way e. Jones and halvorson held up electric rate relief go to the ethics bill Halvorson refuses to let out of her commitee maybe take a look at the mass transit crisis then go to the tax increases and fee increases under blago. Blago and jones will cost halvorson the shot at an open seat but she was there as majority leader for all the follys so she gets the blame.

Comment by FED UP Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 3:47 pm
I’m sure it’ll be a big issue, but I would stay away from predicting outcomes with utmost confidence, if I were you.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 3:51 pm
FED UP,

I hear the janitor gets a lot of the blame too… Or was it the Jimmy Johns sandwichmaker?

Get real. Just because you think it’s easy blaming Halvorson for Blago’s antics doesn’t mean the smart folks of the 11th will agree. And knock on 10 doors anywhere in the 11th. I bet you’re lucky if 1, maybe 2, folks will even know who Emil Jones is. Of the 3 tops, where does his name recognition come in?

Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 4:32 pm
arch,

As we all know, perception = reality if a political opponent can successfully paint a picture, and the target isn’t effective in blunting the criticism. If I were Baldermann, I would do enough “education” so more people in the 11th would know who Emil Jones is, and then throw the millstone around Deb’s neck with a good measure of Rod thrown in. If I were Deb, I would spend at least as much time on Baldermann’s Chicago D ties (”Baldermann…rhymes with alderman”) to tying him to George Bush. Anti-Chicago fervor will resonate more in the 11th than anti-Bush, although there is ground to be gained there also.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 5:08 pm
Sounds like Baldermann is yet to be THE candidate for the GOP side.

My understanding is that Lee has the ability to raise some money, having a fundraising background.

Comment by Super Mega Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 5:12 pm
Vanman,
12 years ago Emil had absolutely np idea who Halvorson was. He played no role in her election and rarely , if ever, drove through her district unless he was on his way to the patch.
Nobody in that district, except maybe state employees, car

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 6:49 pm
whoops, fat fingers little keys,
…cares what happens in Springfield. Debbie is a champion for blocking JJJr’s Peotone airport.
She will be a strong candidate with an excellent chance to win.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 6:52 pm
Is it just me or do people really think that Balderman can really win with Weller’s support. I haven’t really seen him run a hard race yet.

Comment by MinGOP Tuesday, Oct 16, 07 @ 10:49 pm
===As we all know, perception = reality if a political opponent can successfully paint a picture, and the target isn’t effective in blunting the criticism.

That’s definitely true and my assumption is that Halvorson isn’t the kind of candidate to sit back and let someone savage her.

In the world of if I was doing things, she can take the wind out of the sails of the arguments a bit by doing some independent things now. I could see here moving HB 1 out of rules or the such.

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Oct 17, 07 @ 8:24 am
Balderman is making a bad mistake on many fronts. One, he is running a campaign under the assumption that he is the GOP nominee. Many GOP leaders have been supportive (but not too aggressive), because there is no credible candidate that has publicly stepped forward. Jimmy Lee will surprise people with his fundraising prowness, much like Aaron Schock has pleasantly surprised folks, when he offically announces, assuming he does.

Two, the GOP voters will have a problem with the fact that he is moves where the political opportunites lie. He enjoys being mayor when convenient, but functions as head of police in another. Now that a seat is open, he’s blowing off the voters of New Lenox who supported him.

Three, he cannot hide the fact that he is supported by Chicago labor. When the good conservatives and GOP voters learn of this — they will really be turned off. If he does win the nomination, he will not get the base excited to come out and vote and will lose a general election. The bottom line — if he comes close to winning the nomination — he will definitely lose the general.

Four, the increase of crime in Chicago Ridge has occurred under his leadership. How does he defend this?

Fifth, Beavers is a supporter of Balderman. Regardless of the amount (rather large for a mayor of a small community), why would Beavers with a horrible track record in Chicago and Cook County support a GOPer in New Lenox? Could anyone under Balderman in the police department in Chicago Ridge be part of the Beaver’s Organization?

Sixth, an earlier post wanted to know why would Beavers prop up Balderman? If you look into it, there is a major Beavers vs. Jackson rift. The Jackson organization beat out Beaver’s daughter for a aldermanic seat. This is Beaver’s payback. The third airport can become a “control” issue between Congressman Jackson and a Beavers should Balderman win. Control of a third airport would excite the unions and Beavers. Again, the GOP base will be turned off by this. Given the district, the mainstream voters will be turned off when they see the Beaver’s influence in the Balderman camp.

If Balderman wins the nomination, the GOP will lose the election. My prediction is that is Jimmy Lee enters the race, the GOP has a better chance with his clean record and ability to raise money for his campaign and other GOP organizations who sorely need it to win in 2008.

Comment by RichMillerFan Wednesday, Oct 17, 07 @ 11:26 am