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No Hastert announcement today; Morgenthaler quits state job; Etc.

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* Don’t expect a Hastert announcement today. Several outlets appear to have jumped the gun…

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is expected to announce that he plans to leave the House later this year, setting up the widely anticipated prospect of a special election to replace him, Republican sources on Capitol Hill confirmed.

Hastert initially planned to make an announcement Thursday but has since scrapped that decision, according to one GOP aide. The former speaker, who announced his plans to retire over the summer, is still expected to leave the House some time in December, but the date of his departure — as well as his announcement — remains unclear.

* I don’t really understand why Hastert would do this, considering the consequences…

Republicans are already locked in a hard-fought primary. But Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich could fast-track that intramural contest in order to schedule the special on the same day as the state’s Feb. 5 primary - when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will be on the ballot in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

That could be seriously problemmatic for the Republican nominee, to say the least.

* Sometime after we spoke yesterday, retired Col Jill Morgenthaler decided to quit her state job…

Jill Morgenthaler, who is the governor’s deputy chief of staff for public safety, is apparently mulling a bid for Congress in Illinois 6th Congressional District.

The governor’s office said Wednesday that Morgenthaler, of Des Plaines, submitted her resignation on Tuesday, effective Nov. 1.

Morgenthaler is mulling a bid against freshman Republican Peter Roskam. I would take this resignation as a sign that she’s moving much closer to the race.

* Back to Hastert’s seat for a minute, Charlie Johnston takes a look at the odds…

Do not be surprised if the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) quietly gets into play sometime soon. If they do, it will be on behalf of Oberweis. It’s nothing personal; just follow the math. The NRCC was spread thin in 2006 and will be spread much thinner in 2008. They probably have twice as many seats they need to target as they have money to target them with. Regardless of how the Republican Primary turns out this seat is likely to become a Democratic target. While Lauzen may very well have the fundraising ability to make up for what he lacks in personal wealth to compete in the primary, he would assuredly need significant national help if the general was targeted by the Democrats. The decision-makers at the NRCC aren’t geniuses. But you don’t have to be a genius to figure out that, if Oberweis wins, money that would have to be used to prop up Lauzen in a general could be used elsewhere, relieving a little of the pressure on the very tight national NRCC budget.

It has been surprising how cautious and lackluster the Oberweis campaign has been to this point. Without a renewal of vigor, Oberweis risks repeating the results of his first statewide race when little-known, underfunded State Rep. Jim Durkin swept to victory in the U.S. Senate Primary. Anything other than a decisive win will almost certainly lead the Democrats to target the seat, making the cost of the general election campaign

* More stuff…

* LaHood plans to endorse possible successor

* Schock visits Adams County Republicans

* Schoenburg: Family, friends behind candidate to take on Shimkus in IL-19th

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 10:09 am

Comments

I would hope the NRCC would also look closely at Burns. Considering they are worried about the Democrats, Burns is the most moderate of the bunch. Lauzen and Obie are both going to be more vulnerable to a serious Democratic candidate.

Comment by A Non Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 10:36 am
I happened to be at the Schock event with the Adams County Young Republicans. I can say the room was packed and the crowd was very excited and pleased with what they saw. Mr. Schock did an excellent job and leaves the bar high for other candidates who will visit.

Comment by downstateyp Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 10:49 am
I’m not an expert at this special election crap, but stay with me for a minute… special election means that ALL people from all parties run TOGETHER and if no one gets 50% top 2 people have run off? is that correct? If so, then Tim Schmitz, Pat Lindner, Mike Ditka Steve Rauschenberger –ALL– could run for a special 90 day campaign with Name ID being the top priority, nit to mention Linda Chapa La Via and even Tammy Duckworth could run! The more people in–splits up the vote–hmmm, maybe that’s why Burns got in this race in the first place. Kane County is 55% of the 14th D. and Geneva, where he is mayor will go heavy for him. If he grabbed 10-15% of the remaining 14th D vote, he could win a special where his NAME in Geneva is stronger than Obie or Lauzen

Comment by kane county doc Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 10:58 am
Oberweis is 4 time loser. Lauzen wins primaries and general elections. Lauzen’s senate seat makes up over 70% of the congressional district. Do the math: proven winner or four time loser. The only difference between Oberweis and Keyes is…wait there is no difference.

Comment by What the F do I know Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 10:58 am
70 percent? Hardly.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 11:26 am
Difference between Keyes and Obie? One is a kook (cue helicoptor sound)–no wait, that’s not it. One is an opportunist and one a true believer.

Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:39 pm
Rich-

Therefore the moniker.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:39 pm
Here’s the theoretical ratio:

Each state senator gets 1/59th of the state’s population in their district based on the reapportionment after every decennial census. In 200, IL’s count was 12,419,293, so theoretically every state senator represents 210,000 people, more or less. IL has 19 congressional districts. The math works out to 653,000 people.

In other words, 14th congressional district represents over 3 times as many people as 50th state senate district. It’s more like 32% rather than 70%. In land area, the congressional 14th blows away IL Senate 50th even more so.

Since both districts are high growth, and IL is likely to go down from 19 to 18 congress seats next reapportionment, the population centroid of the 14th will likely move east, and the land area of the district grow a little smaller, with the next apportionment after the 2010 Census.

But What do I know?

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:50 pm
Wow, so Hastert is going to do something involving questionable motivation, and something that will hurt Republicans, help the Democrats, cause considerable confusion, all while foisting a big tab on the taxpayers.

What a shock.

Why won’t Denny Hastert just be up front for once and say the obvious. He and his handlers hate Chris Lauzen and they’re willing to play any goofy game to try and stop him.

Comment by GOP'er Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:52 pm
Six, he’s commented here once before praising Lauzen. A know-nothing hyper-partisan is apparently what we’re dealing with.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:55 pm
To append the above-

It seems counterintuitive that the 14th will shrink in land area even as the number of congressional seats is cut by one. But the population gains in the present 14th far outstrip a 5% loss in the # of seats. We are talking a 30%-40% overall population gain here between 2000 and 2010, with one county over 100%. It’ll be a whole new set of voters who weren’t around 10 years ago. Opportunity knocks to the candidate who can best appeal to all those “new” voters.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:56 pm
Six, there’s no sense applying logic, reason and facts with that guy. Won’t work. He’s apparently convinced himself that Lauzen is the be-all, end-all.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:59 pm
He also forgot to mention Lauzen’s loss in the 1998 statewide race for comptroller. Telling.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 12:59 pm
If Hastert retires early, it just might help Lauzen more than anyone else. If I’m not mistaken, he’s the only candidate with any legislative experience.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 1:00 pm
Six, I thought the Senate district was the 25th, not 50th.

Comment by RightGirl Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 1:07 pm
Oh, man. Why do you quote Charlie Johnston? The guy is selling used cars in Libertyville, because he does no work when he accepts a check from a campaign.

Look past the smoke and mirrors!

Comment by Mike Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 1:41 pm
Right Girl,

Oops, you’re right. The 25th is the State Senate district, and the 49th and 50th are the associated State Rep districts contained within Senate 25. Doesn’t change the demographic info above, since they are all considered equal until the next reapportionment.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 1:43 pm
This is going to be one of THE political stories of the year and the beginning of next. Special elections are always interesting, be they due to a death or resignation, but this is the former speaker’s district.

I too am curious as to why Denny is doing this. It can’t just be because of Lauzen - can it? I think Denny is tired of the partisan sniping - especially with him in the minority and no longer holding a leadership position. At what point do you “give up”, take your pension and come home?

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 2:21 pm
Denny HATES Lauzen. Look at where Denny’s former people are working right now?

Comment by kane county doc Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 3:05 pm
We should cheap shot the politicians, not the columnists.

But while the national committee may be short of money, there are a lot of freshman Ds in marginal districts to protect. A lot of them have very ambitious Rs coverting their seats.

Do you REALLY try and snarf the 14th? Are there no better targets out there?

More interestingly, who in Chicago loses a seat when IL loses yet another seat.

Comment by Pat Collins Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 4:29 pm
Pat-

I think the discussion was on the Republican money people throwing in on this race. For the D’s I think Foster has the only chance to win, being a self financer. And he will have to do a bang-up job in the Fox Valley growth suburbs to overcome the rest of this R-leaning but changing district.

Last reapportionment, Dave Phelps lost his D seat in southern IL and had to go head to head with R Shimkus, who won. The draining areas of the state are southern IL and Cook County. Central and northern IL and DuPage County are holding their own, and there is explosive growth in the outer suburbs, mostly in the west and southwest. So it depends on how the horse trading is done at reapportionment time. Chicago/Cook districts could be ‘mandered to pick up more of the burbs and hold their own, forcing the suburban districts out a little farther than otherwise required, then forcing another district to be cut downstate. With the current state power structure, I would not be surprised at that strategy.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 6:40 pm
Kane County Doc:

The special election in the event of a congressional vacancy the way you described it is NOT the way it works in Illinois. What you described is used in other states, but in Illinois, in the event of a Hastert congressional resignation, Governor Blagojevich will set a both a special primary election for established parties (Republicans, Democrats and Greens)in the 14th CD, along with a special general election for the primary winners.

I believe the reason the Hastert resignation announcement has been postponed is to insure Governor Blagojevich does not set February 5th as the special general election date for the 14th CD. If that were to happen, all of the Democrats pulling Democratic ballots voting for Obama or Hillary would likely vote Democrat in the special general election for Congress, placing the seat at higher risk for a Democratic takeover.

I think what will happen is Hastert will delay his inevitable resignation until early to mid December, thus forcing the governor to make February 5th the special primary election, in conjunction with the regular primary for the next elected term for the 14th CD. The special general election would then be in late March or early April.

Additionally, I don’t see more candidates “jumping into” the special election that aren’t already running for 2008.

BTW, to date, I’ve received 2 Lauzen mailings, no Oberweis mailings and 1 Foster fundraiser letter.

Hope this helps.

BTW, I do live in the 14th CD.

Comment by A WISE OLD MAN Thursday, Oct 18, 07 @ 10:37 pm
Congressional reapportionment — who loses? Tough question. I see the 8th district becoming more Democratic if Congresswoman Bean is still in Congress come 2011. To do that, the 8th would need to grow to include the Kane County portion of the city of Elgin (Cook County portion of Elgin is already in 8th CD), as well as the heavily minority village of Carpentersville, which already saw Democratic gain with State Senator Michael Noland’s election last year.

I would see more the 8th CD grow further west to include the Democratic strongholds in Rockford, too. Given that, I think the 16th CD (Congressman Don Manzullo) will be folded into the 8th CD. Manzullo, first elected in 1992, must be nearing retirement (it was rumored to happen next year, but more likely in 2010). Therefore, if there is a freshman Republican congressman elected to succeed Manzullo, look for that district to be broken-up/combined into the 8th CD in a more Democratic-leaning district, with the remainder of 16th CD west of Rockford being combined into either the 17th or 18th CDs.

Just my 2 cents.

Comment by A WISE OLD MAN Friday, Oct 19, 07 @ 12:15 am
Again Re Morganthaler:

From Wednesday 6/17: “Most of the Colonel’s current job is marketing and advertising also. She was brought into IEMA because of the desire of the “leaders” of this agency to make it a more papamilitary group. She has little knowledge of the nuclear safety end of the program at all, and given that Illinois has more nuclear plants than any other place except France, this seems to be where we should focus our protective services. The Dept. of Nuclear Safety has been disseminated of some very smart, knowledgeable people, methinks because of Sen. Jones closeness to ComEd, whose tax dollars financed that department. Here’s hoping we never need to tackle an emergency at one of the nukes.”

And the response:

- To: Disgusted - Wednesday, Oct 17, 07 @ 3:53 pm:

It is quite clear that you are a disgruntled member of IEMA/former DNS. While I agree that Nuclear Safety probably should have remained as its own agency, having a Director of IEMA whose primary experience is in nuclear safety would be disasterous, and that is exactly why the Col. and director Valasquez are right for the job.

Illinois has many scenarios, such as a dirty bomb in Chicago or an earthquake in Southern Illinois, which are more likely than a large scale nuclear plant incident and which would require massive coordination unknown to nuclear safety planners. I do not like Blago, but homeland security/emergency preparedness is one area that I think they have done a tolerable job.

FYI: I have never been a member of the staff of DNS or IEMA. I just happen to know people. And I stand by my statements. If you are smart enough to be involved in a program that monitors all aspects of nuclear power plants, you can be sure that they are smart enough to coordinate homeland security projects. Some have already been offered such jobs. These people are not stupid or political hacks, are highly intelligent, and highly trained. They also have common sense and personal dignity. In any other state this would be an asset but not to the yes-man group surrounding this administration.

Comment by Disgusted Sunday, Oct 21, 07 @ 9:54 pm