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* This poll is “new” only in that the Conway campaign decided to publish it today. The survey was completed eight days ago, so some of the numbers are eleven days old. Press release…
With three weeks left before the 2020 Democratic Primary, a new poll released today shows former prosecutor and Naval Intelligence Officer Bill Conway surging in the race for Cook County State’s Attorney. Conway is now within the margin of error (28% Foxx / 26% Conway / 6% Fioretti / 4% More), narrowing his deficit by more than 20 points after trailing Foxx by 22 in December. Additionally, in a head-to-head match-up Conway leads Foxx by 5 (41% Conway / 36% Foxx).
“Voters across Cook County are tired of Kim Foxx’s status quo, where the politically-connected get one set of justice and everyone else gets another,” said campaign spokeswoman Eliza Glezer. “It’s clear that in Bill Conway they see the change we need: someone with the independence and experience to clean up the State’s Attorney’s office so that it works for everyone regardless of who they know or where they’re from.”
Other key findings include:
By more than two to one, likely Democratic primary voters disapprove of how Foxx handled the Jussie Smollett case. With a majority 57% disapproving and only 25% approving, this promises to be a major problem for the incumbent who has refused to answer straightforward questions on how she handled the case for nearly a year and who shows no signs of stopping, despite special prosecutor Dan Webb’s decision to reindict Smollett.
Democratic primary voters are favorable toward Conway and unfavorable toward Foxx. Indeed, while nearly twice as many have favorable views of Conway as unfavorable (29%/16%), Foxx’s rating is net negative (36%/40%), a major problem for a well-known incumbent whose numbers are moving the wrong direction.
Bob Fioretti (6%) and Donna More (4%) are not major factors in this race, and like Foxx their support has trended down since December.
Frankly, I thought the Smollett disapproval would be higher, but that’s certainly not good.
And the trend doesn’t appear to be Foxx’s friend…
A superPAC supporting Foxx recently disclosed a $2 million contribution.
* Methodology…
The above findings are from a survey of n=600 likely Cook County Democratic primary voters conducted February 13-16, 2020. The poll’s margin of sampling error is +4.0%.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:11 am
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Anti-Conway fliers showed up in our mailbox on Friday and Saturday. Any takers on whether there’ll be one in today’s mail?
Comment by Northsider Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:25 am
600 likely voters is hardly scientific. All voters from Lincoln Park? Winnetka? Really tells us nothing.
Comment by JP Altgeld Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:34 am
Kim Foxx still can’t explain why she dropped the charges.
What an epic blunder.
Comment by Bashoooka Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:35 am
=600 likely voters is hardly scientific=
I don’t like this poll because it isn’t favorable to my preferred candidate
Comment by Iggy Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:35 am
Well that certainly appears to give him more of a shot than I thought. Smollett is back in court today so another day of bad press for the incumbent.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:43 am
== All voters from Lincoln Park? Winnetka?==
Have you ever seen a county wide poll that used this idiotic methodology?
Comment by A Guy Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:45 am
===600 likely voters is hardly scientific===
You really need to find another place to comment.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:47 am
I got an anti-Fioretti mailer from Conway last week. Kind of strange to be attacking someone who your own numbers say is polling at 6%.
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:56 am
=I got an anti-Fioretti mailer from Conway last week. Kind of strange to be attacking someone who your own numbers say is polling at=
Any votes for Fioretti or More don’t help Conway and help Foxx.
Comment by Pawar Lost Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:57 am
- Pawar Lost - Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:57 am:
“Bob Fioretti (6%) and Donna More (4%) are not major factors in this race, and like Foxx their support has trended down since December.”
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:09 am
Wouldn’t have thought a county state’s attorney race would amount to a proxy fight between a 70 year-old billionaire and 90 year-old billionaire.
Comment by City Zen Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:15 am
==Bob Fioretti (6%)==
Is the MoE 6?
Comment by Rich Hill Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:20 am
Fioretti takes vote from Conway.
Comment by 19th Ward Guy Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:20 am
I answered a poll about the race. I refused to answer the question about Kim Foxx, but instead harangued the tepid questioner about how Foxx belongs in prison and not in a poll. Wonder how they counted me?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:28 am
===A superPAC supporting Foxx recently disclosed a $2 million contribution.===
Wow.
Comment by don the legend Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:31 am
Time for Conway to ease up on the Smollet narrative and hammer her on lesser known cases where undercharged people went on to commit even worse crimes. Look at surge of crime on CTA, carjackings, high end retail theft and murders this year. Her policies reflect this uptick.
Comment by BarnabasBuckeye Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:47 am
If Conway is within the margin of error, it could be a turnout / ground game race in the end.
Can Conway beat Foxx in the precincts? Can Conway gin up his identified voters, *if* he even knows who they are?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:52 am
“ Look at surge of crime on CTA, carjackings, high end retail theft and murders this year. Her policies reflect this uptick.”
What surge of crime? Crimes went down since 2016, especially murder.
Conway best stick to Smollett.
Comment by All This Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 10:53 am
All This: was it though? Those are Rahm stats. Cooked more times than the books at Enron.
Also look at the stats since January 1. Highest number of homicides in years. CTA crime up double digits since last year. Carjackings up double digits since last year.
Another big difference is that these crimes are now being reported by the local news, whereas before, only outlets like CWB and local blogs were.
Comment by BarnabasBuckeye Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:03 am
“Also look at the stats since January 1“
You’re basing your “crime is increasing” schtick on one and a half months?
I’m sure Conway will be so eager to get your advice.
Comment by All This Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:18 am
==- BarnabasBuckeye - Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:03 am:==
If you think crime reporting on the tv news and blogs is an accurate representation of crime, I’ve got quite a few bridges to sell you.
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:18 am
==What surge of crime? Crimes went down since 2016, especially murder.==
Foxx’s stats benefit greatly from a huge spike in 2016, a year with an unusually high homicide rate comparable to the early 1990’s. Even still, homicides are at levels higher than they were 10 years ago.
Comment by City Zen Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:19 am
-If you think crime reporting on the tv news and blogs is an accurate representation of crime, I’ve got quite a few bridges to sell you.-
True but I bet a lot of the voting public may be interested in those bridges. There was just a high profile carjacking of an IDOT employee last night, complete with a high speed chase and wreck on the Dan Ryan.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:40 am
Counterpoint to the “crime as reported by the news/blogs is inaccurate” view: given that the data provided by the SA and the Chief Judge’s office has been proven demonstrably false, where do you suggest people get their data? The need for increased patrols and SWAT teams during the night rush on the CTA downtown suggests that the news/blogs are probably a bit more accurate than the self-serving reports from Foxx and Evans.
Comment by Anon324 Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 11:54 am
still think the number of candidates favors Foxx, especially as More now has the Herald and the Tribune, but could turn out (literally) to be the resurgence of a SWside ground game that is in play.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 12:32 pm
If Kim Foxx gets the votes of all of the people who were in Jussie Smollett’s entourage today at court, it should be worth at least a point or two.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 12:46 pm
am:
=“Also look at the stats since January 1“
You’re basing your “crime is increasing” schtick on one and a half months?
I’m sure Conway will be so eager to get your advice=
When people are headed into the polls, they’ll tend to remember and vote what high profile violence they saw in the news last, rather than what Foxx’s massaged stats are. Do you remember what you wore yesterday, or what you wore a year and a day ago better?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 1:16 pm
Lots of examples of the surge in nonviolent crime leading to violent crime. This guy was arrested and released SEVEN times in 2019 before he did this murder.
https://cwbchicago.com/2020/02/man-charged-with-execution-style-shooting-in-cta-tunnel-police-say.html
Comment by Southern Skeptic Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 1:26 pm
And yet the Trib endorsed More who has no chance. Not that newspaper endorsements matter much anymore.
Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 5:04 pm
JP Altgeld –
Take a gander at the following, then comment — it’ll help
Dillman, D. A., Smyth, J. D, & Christian, L. M. (2014). Internet, Phone, Mail, and Mixed-Mode Surveys: The Tailored Design Method. (4th ed.) Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Comment by Flapdoodle Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 7:29 pm
About 33% undecided. If past history is an indication, that’s not good news for Foxx. Also will this move some anti-Foxx voters away from More & Fioretti and towards Conway? I’m guessing other polls show something similar - which explains Soros spending $2 million to oppose Conway.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 24, 20 @ 9:19 pm
Doesn’t anyone find it weird that a black girl from Cabrini Green could got voted in as States Attorney, now repeatedly play the race card?
Comment by Bozo Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 5:46 am
== Those are Rahm stats. Cooked more times than the books at Enron.==
The tin foil hat is a little tight methinks.
Comment by Muddy trail Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 7:14 am
== given that the data provided by the SA and the Chief Judge’s office has been proven demonstrably false==
This hasn’t been proven false. Do they have a sale on too tight tin foil hats this week?
Comment by Muddy trail Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 7:17 am
= Do you remember what you wore yesterday, or what you wore a year and a day ago better?=
So nobody will remember Smollett, since it happened so long ago.
The problem with using stats from a couple weeks ago is that there hasn’t even been enough time for the perpetrators to be charged and brought to the prosecutors. Police are still knocking on doors, talking to witnesses and waiting for DNA lab results etc. So these crimes have nothing to do with the prosecutor’s office so far.
Comment by 17% Solution Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 7:44 am
=== Foxx’s stats benefit greatly from a huge spike in 2016, a year with an unusually high homicide rate comparable to the early 1990’s. Even still, homicides are at levels higher than they were 10 years ago.===
Crime does go up and down in waves. Ten years ago was the bottom of the wave. Twenty years ago was the top of the wave. The fact that the criminal justice community was able to interrupt a wave while it was cresting is nothing short of heroic.
The police, Eddie Johnson, the states attorney’s office and everyone else should take a bow. They have saved hundreds of lives.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 8:42 am
==Crime does go up and down in waves.==
If you looked the stats, which you apparently couldn’t be bothered with, you’d have seen 2016 homicides sprang up like a middle finger. It was an aberration in what had been a downward trending statistic up until that year.
And it doesn’t change the fact those rates are still higher today than they were before that spike.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 8:59 am
Correction crime peaked thirty years ago not twenty.
Yes crime was lower ten years ago because the crime rate moves in waves. I wasn’t arguing that your statement about tens years ago was wrong.
The crime increase in 2015 and 2016 was the wave going upwards. And our criminal justice people worked their tails off to get it down, in the middle of the top of the wave. That is astonishing.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 9:05 am
=== If you looked the stats, which you apparently couldn’t be bothered with,===
I’m not sure why you would say that. I hadn’t disputed that crime was up in 2016.
Nor have I disputed crime being lower ten years ago. So I’m not sure what points you think you are debating.
The fact is that the crime moved up in 2015 then up even more in 2016. The criminal justice community worked their tails off to cause the wave to stop when it was moving upwards. That is nothing less than astonishing.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 9:17 am
Bill Conway cares deeply about social justice reform while balancing the need for keeping violent criminals off the street. I have increasingly felt unsafe on the EL and in my loop neighborhood as assaults / robberies have gone up. Kim Foxx has repeatedly released violent criminals on $0 bail who have gone on to commit more crimes. I am voting Conway because I want to see all chicagoans feel safe in their neighborhoods.
Comment by Chicago Love Tuesday, Feb 25, 20 @ 4:54 pm