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What’s up with Hastert? Plus: Morgenthaler; Lipinski

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* I’m been wondering what the method behind this back and forth really is all about…

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert is denying recent reports that he plans to resign before his term ends 15 months from now.

During a morning interview on WLS Radio’s “The Don and Roma Morning Show,” the Illinois Republican dismissed the reports, saying “rumor of my demise is greatly exaggerated.”

Hastert says he isn’t sure how long he will continue to serve in Congress. But he says he’s always planned to stay as long as he can get things done, and Hastert cited the energy bill he’s promoting as 1 of the things he hopes to accomplish.

He’s out. He’s in. He’s out. He’s in. This has been going on for weeks.

From what I gather, Hastert was ready to announce his resignation last week, but was very upset after House Minority Leader John Boehner leaked it to the press. Hastert had apparently told Boehner about his plans in the strictest of confidence, and was angry when Boehner flapped his gums.

“I think he just wants to go on his own terms,” said one person close to the situation. “He felt like he was being pushed.”

* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has finally gotten around to covering Jill Morgenthaler’s congressional bid…

Retired U.S. Army Reserve Col. Jill Morgenthaler of Des Plaines is expected to announce soon whether she’ll take the plunge and numerous political insiders predict her answer will be “yes.”

“She’s taking all the steps needed to prepare for a run,” said a campaign spokesman. “We will be making an announcement this week.” […]

Addison Township Democratic Chairman Art Remus believes Morgenthaler has “a very good chance. The way she speaks commands attention,” he said.

But Democratic organizer Bob Peickert, who heads the Operation Turn DuPage Blue group, said it’s early in the game to pick a candidate.

“We’re in the process of finding out where she stands on the issues,” he said.

* Netroots activists appear to be holding their opinions in check until they see how Morgenthaler deals with her past flacking for the US Army about the Abu Ghraib torture scandals…

Democrats hope that they can put Roskam on the defensive in this Democratic-trending district, but it remains to be seen whether Morgenthaler has the right profile to inspire local activists. She was at the center of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal as an army spokeswoman, and a Web journal that she had during her time in Iraq features a good deal of criticism of the media for what she perceived as negative coverage of the war.

One such nugget from her journal: “As people get upset about Abu Ghraib, one thing that should never be forgotten: these are men who have murdered Americans and would continue to murder Americans if given the opportunity.”

* Speaking of the Netroots, the Tribune ran a piece yesterday about all the online huffing and puffing over Congressman Dan Lipinski…

Frustrated with Democrats’ failure to thwart Bush on Iraq and other issues after winning House and Senate control in 2006, Internet activists deride Lipinski and about 40 other Democratic members of Congress as “Bush Dogs” for their votes on the war and warrantless wiretapping. The activists have targeted those lawmakers with attack ads, scathing blog posts and, in Lipinski’s case, financial help for his primary foe. Pera, a Cook County assistant state’s attorney, outraised Lipinski last quarter, a rarity for a challenger, thanks in part to the $30,000 he raised online over a recent two-week period.

Democratic bloggers say they’re prodding Lipinski and other “Bush Dogs” to support key party principles. Lipinski and other aisle-crossing members of Congress worry the bloggers are trying to drive bipartisanship off Capitol Hill.

Some of that story is way off the mark, but that’s par for the course with a traditional MSM outlet like the Trib. Still, considering Little Lip’s old-style ward and township support, the blog onslought so far appears to be more of a harassment action than a true threat.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 9:01 am

Comments

There are very different approaches to what the netroots can do within the netroots. Clearly the hard work has to be done in the District, but netroots can supply money and volunteers to help combat the ward and township support. The challenge is that Pera has to gather unorganized voters in the District without the usual support a machine candidate has.

Making it even tougher is that Madigan has backed Lipinski in the past so it’s very much an uphill fight, but one worth having to those who are doing it.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 9:14 am
Rich, You should ask folks like Cheryl Axley and a slew of 2005 muni candidates (incl. many incumbents that lost) what they think about their own “harassment actions”.

Granted, it remains to be seen if such “harassment action” can be translated to a higher level like a Congressional primary… but still.

Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 9:26 am
I’m referring only to this particular primary. I’ve watched other Netroots actions, been impressed by some, not so by others.

There’s little question that Dan Lipinski is a mope. But that district is very susceptible to precinct captain influence - perhaps more than any other in Illinois.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 9:30 am
DailyKos attacking Lipinski as a Republican? That’s interesting except they don’t know the dynamics of the Democratic Party that contain just as many different groups that are in the Republicans. Just like there are liberal Republicans. These netroots are looking for a purity that may not even exist.

Oh and to see their effect in the 14th CD would be interesting. If they can raise enough to help the nominee other than Lipinski and if they can build an organization. There’s no reason to assume they can’t win. Of course I’m being optimistic.

Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 9:58 am
The netroots support has given Pera a legitimacy that he may not otherwise have. It’s gotten him earned media coverage, which he might not otherwise have. A front page Tribune story, in which the incumbent’s best support comes from a North Shore Republican? That story, imo, worked out nicely for Pera.

His campaign has a long, long, long way to go though.

Comment by jerry 101 Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 10:22 am
==#There’s little question that Dan Lipinski is a mope. But that district is very susceptible to precinct captain influence - perhaps more than any other in Illinois.

Yes, he’s their mope

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 10:59 am
Levois,

The DKos post was about a) a Republican defending the Lipinski (apparently the only person to step up to defend him) and b) Lipinski’s record of voting with the Republicans/Bush on critical issues, a record which runs counter to his deep blue district which went solidly for both Kerry and Gore.

Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:12 am
Thanks for that. I had to go back and read it again.

Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:21 am
I am still appalled how Big Lip engineered the coronation of Little Lip. My distain has nothing to do with his being the son, per se — that happens all the time in Illinois politics — it’s the fact that the son didn’t even live in Illinois when he was tapped to replace his dad. And the media reports questioning how the son could have possibly voted in person when he was in Tennessee at the time. No wonder people are disenfranchised. And that’s exactly where people like Big Lip wants ‘em.

Comment by Anon 101 Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:26 am
I don’t think that many voters in Lip’s district spend much time on blogs or even know what “DailyKos” is.
We are too busy earning our livings, paying our taxes, and living our lives…and we don’t like outsiders like Kos and netroots sticking their noses in our business…
…and Lip is not a mope. He may be a little too conservative but definitely not a mope.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:30 am
I’m afraid I am unable to express my true feelings of disgust over Dan Lipinski on this site, due to the restictions placed here on comments that may seem to be excessively rabid. However, I can say that his defeat on february 5 would greatly benefit his district and the Democratic Party here in the Chicago area, by being brought closer to the rest of the nation.

Comment by fedup dem Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:45 am
Hastert misses the attention. He used to enjoy the spotlight and now he has it on him again.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:47 am
The mope reputation comes from before being a MOC. There are a lot of socially inept people in academia, he stood out.

And most voters don’t know what Daily Kos is. However, it does provide a place for activists to come together to volunteer and donate. Often times people will organize locally by using the web site as a place to meet. While the money is often national, the volunteers are often local and quite good at self-organizing.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:49 am
BTW, the voting records are now….missing.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:50 am
Yeah, how convenient.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:53 am
I live in a changing part of Lip II’s district, and I’m not so sure the machine has much influence there anymore. Yes, there will be people canvassing the polling place, it’ll be interesting to see who they encourage voters to vote for. They usually only really push one office since they only have a little segment of time.

If the Dem primary turns out a lot of new women voters, that could upset things for Lip II if Pera can get his name and ideas out there to them.

Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:58 am
The Netroots didn’t like Joe Lieberman either. Look what it got them by doing that!

Wake up loonies! Voters are not as ridiculous as you are!

Go ahead and gut Morganthaler and Lipinski. Both candidates are far more normal politically than you are. While I can’t stand Lipinski, (because of how he got his job), I’d happily vote for the GOP candidate in his district if I lived there. Morganthaler is utterly normal - so the time has come for the Netroots to start showing some political reality by allowing normal people to run in their party.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:59 am
Vanilla Man…Champion of Normalacy

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 12:02 pm
===The Netroots didn’t like Joe Lieberman either. Look what it got them by doing that!

===Wake up loonies! Voters are not as ridiculous as you are!

===Both candidates are far more normal politically than you are.

How is Lipinski more normal than I am?
Except recent polling shows if voters knew what they know now–Lieberman would have lost. Remember,he won by lying about the war.

60% of the public wants the war to end within 1 year. 60% oppose the FISA law without warrants being required. Over 60% favor embryonic stem cell research. How are these not normal?

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 1:17 pm
Normal

Normal != >51%

if voters knew what they know now–Lieberman would have lost

And that new thing is? The war was a HUGE issue. How can you say CN voters did NOT know his war record? It was why he didnt’ get the nomination.

Comment by Pat Collins Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 1:21 pm
Pat, you might refresh your memory of that election.

===At a July 2006 debate with challenger Ned Lamont, Lieberman estimated that troops would be coming home by the end of 2006 and that half would be out of Iraq by the end of 2007, saying, “So I am confident that the situation is improving enough on the ground that by the end of this year, we will begin to draw down significant numbers of American troops, and by the end of the next year more than half of the troops who are there now will be home.”

“No one wants to end the war in Iraq more than I do.” - Joe Lieberman, 10/18/06.

“I want to help end the war in Iraq.” - Joe Lieberman, 8/11/06

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 1:33 pm
I think the point is that the Netroots have played a decisive role in some important races, regardless of what some on the Right may think. No sense in getting bogged down in that Lieberman thing.

I’m just not sure yet it’ll matter much in this Little Lip race, but we’ll see.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 1:49 pm
Arch, do you thing Morgenthaler, if successful as Dem candidate in the 6th, would show Democrats are taking a new line towards Iraq?

I’ve read her weblog and if she sounds like someone I’d want to vote for, doesn’t that mean Dems have changed… at least a bit maybe?

Comment by Bill Baar Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 3:05 pm
Reading the post from 11:30 AM, I can understand someone attacking outsiders for getting involved in an IL congressional race. Also, I can understand someone defending Lil’ Lip (well . . .maybe).

But how in Hades do you do both at the same time? Lil’ Lip is Tennessee’s unofficial congresmman.

Comment by Some Guy Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 3:15 pm
Rob N, you must not be familiar with the 3rd Congressional District. Just because it voted for Kerry and Gore do not make it “deep blue”. You need to look beyond the presidential numbers.

I’ve lived there for 20+ years, and it is safe to say it is a moderate district, with a vast pro-life contingent. The large Catholic Churches in the district are packed every weekend. The main reason Pera will lose is because his top agenda item is that he is pro-choice. It might help him raise money from the liberals on the north side of Chicago and the east coast, but it won’t get him more than 25% of the vote in the 3rd Congessional District.

Funny that Pera is so vehemently pro-choice but back in ‘96 when he ran for a state seat he was viewed as pro-life and was closely tied to the Lipinski camp.

A majority of voters in the 3rd district are Democrats that voted for Gore and Kerry, but the percentage of actual liberals in the district is at most 25%.

Comment by Radical Moderate Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 3:16 pm
The claim keeps getting made that somehow this District is radically different from the other Districts in Chicago. It is the most conservative CD in the city, but it’s hardly conservative. In the Democratic Primary for Treasurer even with the backing of the Speaker, Gianoullis, the liberal in that race, took 49% in the 19th and 47% in the 23rd. In the General where Lipinski was tacitly backing Radogno, Gianoulis took 2/3 of the vote and more in the big four wards of the 3rd.

It’s a 20% Hispanic District as well. This isn’t 1980 and while the challenge is great to organize the voters in the 3rd since the wards have generally discouraged turnout in primaries for those not connected, it’s not a conservative district. It’s more conservative than other Districts in the city, but it’s only performs 7% less than does Rahm’s 5th District.

Getting those less organized voters to turnout and know Pera’s name is the primary challenge. That’s a big one, but it’s not a basic ideological problem.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 3:59 pm
I don’t know how helpful liberal and conservative are in describing this district (and I have family who live in it).

Comment by Bill Baar Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 4:15 pm
Larry, you kinda made my point about that district. Alexi dumped a ton of Chicago media money into the race, yet the captains preserved the win for a guy with little cash, no TV, no name ID and who was from the “alien” downstate. Also, 19 has a lot of African-American voters who were bombarded with Obama’s endorsement of Giannoulias.

Plus, the Latino vote is rapidly being brought into the fold (Cicero and Berwyn Towships, 13, 14, etc.).

Also, as far as conservative goes, that district produces a ton of conservative Dem state legislators, aldermen, etc. More than any other Chicago district, to be sure.

My ultimate point here, I think, is that Pera is gonna have to raise a fortune, which he hasn’t yet done, get on TV in a big way and super-flood the zone with his message if he has any hope of winning. I just don’t see it yet.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 4:16 pm
net roots

What it CAN do is provide a rallying point for people who are mad, but not sure what to do about it.

What is can not do is create those people, or “raise their awareness” to use the phrase.

And, frankly, incumbents are very hard to beat in primaries, even with motivated locals.

Ask Patricia Lindner and Mark Beaubien.

Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 4:49 pm
Radical Moderate,

A few hundred dollars in a race that happened 11 years ago does not make one “closely tied to the Lipinski camp”…. Please.

“Challenger” Jerry Bennett is far more closely tied to the Lipinski camp seeing as how his ringing endorsement of Dan Lipinski was on Lipinski’s homepage for some time.

Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 5:05 pm
===#My ultimate point here, I think, is that Pera is gonna have to raise a fortune, which he hasn’t yet done, get on TV in a big way and super-flood the zone with his message if he has any hope of winning. I just don’t see it yet.

I see the same problems, but I’d say the solution is different. Cable TV would be a good buy in that area and I’d say organizing is his most important aspect. Getting people out to vote is the hardest part because virtually no one not connected to the ward organizations shows up in these areas so you have to create your own organizing system. The good news is that it’s a geographically compact area, the bad news is that your only way to ID voters is interest group lists since these are people largely off the radar.

He’ll need to do some radio and certainly lots of mailing and targeted TV on cable. But the key in races where you are overtaking organizational politics that still function, but have a much smaller base than in the past is to find the voters and contact them regularly and get a viral campaign going amongst people who never felt connected to the organizations in those areas. It’s not easy, and I cannot say that Mark has that ability to inspire people–though I think it’s possible.

Add to that, Obama being on the ballot in February, and a lot of those kind of voters will be going out to the polls–you hit them with what media you can and hope they can put you over the top.

Much of what the ward orgs need is low turnout. If you can match them with turnout through organizing, you need that extra push of buzz and media to win.

Before 2004, I’d have said it was impossible. Now, I’d say it’s really, really hard to pull off.

I think the Mangieri race makes both of our points because they aren’t that far off–the organization put their weight behind Mangieri and yet they could only pull off a draw. That isn’t the powerful organizations that can control everything.

And whenever someone runs a campaign to be the one who topples the old system, it’s a low probability of success. That said, with the demographic changes going on there (and Lipinski being especially horrible on immigration) it will happen. Is this the year? I hope so, but we won’t know until February 5th.

Add to that Lipinski is lazy, doesn’t raise any money, and is god awful in person, there is an opening. The bad news is Madigan is the best about getting the old system to bring out the votes and he’s interested in the race.

Comment by archpundit Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 5:15 pm
Little Lip will win with at least 65% of the vote. No doubt whatsoever. You heard it here first.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 5:17 pm
Add to that, Obama being on the ballot in February, and a lot of those kind of voters will be going out to the polls–you hit them with what media you can and hope they can put you over the top.

If HRC knocks Obama out in Iowa first, a lot of those Obama voters are going to stay home or cast a protest vote on the GOP side instead for Ron Paul.

Comment by Bill Baar Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 6:47 pm
===a lot of those Obama voters are going to stay home or cast a protest vote on the GOP side instead for Ron Paul.===

Define “a lot.” And then get out your checkbook for a nice side bet.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 7:05 pm
The Mangieri-Alexi race is different because of two factors: Big Money and Big Barack. Pera will have neither.

I don’t think you can go up against those captains with no real cash and no fantabulous endorser. Plus, Little Lip has the brand name.

It’s just too much to overcome with the relatively modest campaign kitty that Pera is building and the smallish precinct operation he’ll have. Targeted state legislative races routinely run above $500K. It doesn’t look like Pera will even have that.

The big secret here is that the powers that be are saving that seat for someone else down the road. They have to keep Pera out and the mope in so they can put their own (way better) person into that slot a few years from now.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 7:15 pm
I’ve been a member of DailyKos since early 2004. It’s kind of pathetic that the MSM and the right wing noise machine like O’Reilly vilify Kos with such abandon. Truth is, it’s mostly not a bunch of far left loonies. Instead it’s a bunch (ok, millions) of Democrats frustrated at Democrats acting like wannabe Republicans.

Some classic Kos Dems include so called centrists like Jim Webb in VA and Jon Tester in MT. It’s not about ideological litmus tests. But don’t let the facts get in the way of conventional MSM wisdom. DailyKos is NOT synonymous with moveon.org.

That said, Mark Pera ran a lackluster campaign in ‘96 and as much as I despise little Lip and wish he would be defeated, Pera doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell to win in that district.

Nor does Kos darling Daniel Biss in his run against Beth Coulson for that matter. Frankly I think this is the worst choice of a race for Kos. Beth Coulson is a great moderate rep - probably my favorite Republican in the GA (ok, it’s a short list). She doesn’t deserve the Kos treatment.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 7:50 pm
I think Archpundit and Rich proved my point - the 3rd district isn’t deep blue. I’m not saying a Republican will win the 3rd district, but it is pale blue, not deep blue.

Pera is too deep blue for the district. That’s my point. If he was running in an open seat in Rahm or Jan’s district, he’d have a better shot than running against Little Lip.

And for those on the far left that believe that Bennett is running just to foil Pera, you’re detached from reality. A longtime mayor and the Chairman of CMAP isn’t a Lipinski plant. Bennett is his own man. My bet is that he gets more votes than Pera.

Comment by Radical Moderate Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 8:40 pm
What possible reason would Boehner have to push out Hastert before the end of his term? What, is Denny snoring too loud on the back bench? This is the just the latest spin that makes absolutely no sense.

There is no mystery here. Hastert and his peeps can’t stand the idea of Chris Lauzen maybe getting his seat and they’ll play any game if they think it might work to Lauzen’s disadvantage. It’s not even clear if resignation would even hurt Lauzen at this point though.

Comment by Nonsense Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 9:26 pm
Lip wins easily. 67% of the vote. Let’s see…canvassing in beautiful Chicago January for the Feb 1. Election. Madigan’s Ward delivers heavy for Lipinski. Besides…Lipinski has a very strong Senior Network and superb staff. His constituent services for seniors are bar none, one of the best in the state. Apparently, this is below the radar of our political pundits. Who the heck is Pera any way?

Comment by anon Tuesday, Oct 23, 07 @ 11:20 pm
Define “a lot.” And then get out your checkbook for a nice side bet.

Last time we did this it was a beer that Lieberman would crush Lemont but some outragous percent. I don’t think I hit the percent but Lieberman crushed Lemont none the less.

Paul’s this option sitting out there for people to complain. He’s a wildcard sitting out there for people to play.

In places like the IL-3rd he’s got this potential to pull a lot of complainers into the GOP primary. I don’t think Obama is going to get the complainer-and-angry vote especially when his campaign looks like it’s running out of gas.

So you just have to pull the angry margin from overwhelmingly regular Dem districts like the third to get this big number for Paul.

I think these Paul people will help Oberweis in Il-14 where this sort of radical libertarian line has appeal too.

I don’t pretend to science here. Just my gut from talking to people.

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Oct 24, 07 @ 7:11 am