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* Scott Kennedy at Illinois Election Data has a very well-written and thoughtful piece on his website (click here) that he condensed for Twitter several hours ago about today’s election. Here’s the tweet thread…
Holding an election during a global pandemic is not optimal. Here’s an explainer on what’s known, what’s unknown and what to expect. I’ll tweet some key items below.
Without a pandemic, turnout could have been a record high, at least on the Democratic side. It’s very hard to predict what it will be now. 730,000 people (D & R) have already voted but that’s probably at most a third of potential likely voters.
As many as 165,000 vote by mail ballots could still be returned if they are postmarked by today. They can be counted if they arrive any time in the next two weeks.
Be patient. Only the results of large margin victories will be known tonight, if at all. More data may come in the next day or two, some data won’t be in until two weeks later. Far less will be known about election results tonight than in any Illinois election in the modern era.
Don’t automatically assume the first reported election results tonight include EV. Election authorities aren’t legally allowed to count early vote & already received vote by mail ballots until after the polls close at 7pm. They can organize them, they just can’t count them.
Some election authorities will count EV/VBM ballot first tonight, others will count them last once all of their other precincts are in and others won’t count them until tomorrow or Thursday. Some of that happens in Illinois even during normal elections.
Over the next few days you will be able to see the totals by county/election authority of the number of ballots that remain uncounted or outstanding on the State Board of Elections’ website.
In the days following today some election authorities will update their totals each day with newly received or counted data, others will wait all two weeks. It will vary by election authority but it may take the full two weeks before the results of close elections are known.
Finally, please be patient and lower your expectations. Conducting an election is challenging in the best of circumstances and these are extraordinary times. It will also be safe to assume that the remaining unknowns are larger than you probably expect.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:47 pm
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Life is trying to forge ahead amid this growing crisis. And so the voting goes on. Healthcare was already a big issue in 2018. Imagine now.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 7:00 pm
It also takes longer to close the polls when there’s only three versus four or five judges. Polls full of new judges can also take longer because they’re inexperienced and are reading the rules and procedures as they go.
Comment by Jon Musgrave Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 9:24 pm
Again Scott is spot on with this piece. If only the talking heads on TV would understand this they could be taken seriously. Everyone of them has forgotten the Frerichs Cross Treasurers race.
Why some station doesn’t have Scott on as their analysis is beyond me.
Comment by Been There Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 10:28 pm