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* I told subscribers about this earlier today. From WBEZ…
Illinois expects to have 3,400 new cases of COVID-19 a week from now if the virus continues to spread at its current pace, WBEZ has learned.
If 20% of cases are severe, about 650 more infected people would need to be hospitalized, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.
If the state’s projections hold, Illinois would see an eight-fold increase in the number of people who test positive for the new coronavirus in the next week. As of Thursday, there were 422 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Illinois. Four people have died, and public health officials have repeatedly warned that residents should expect those numbers to increase.
In an email, a state public health department spokesperson told WBEZ the estimated figures are based on the trajectory of cases this week continuing.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 11:16 am
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Probably way underestimated. Any such data, and projections, are driven more by the availability of testing than by actual occurrence in the populace.
Comment by walker Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 11:23 am
Agree with Walker. The reported number is more a function of testing capability than of disease prevalence.
When we have the capability, approach it like an audit of receivables; test all who show major symptoms (like large receivables) and then randomly sample asymptotic individuals.
When we can identify people who have had the virus, are not contagious, and are temporarily immune; put a bracelet on them and let them resume normal lives.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 11:49 am
We have some major data validity issues. This is like predicting the weather by looking through your peephole.
Comment by Candy Dogood Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 12:50 pm
How many are currently being treated in hospitals because of severe cases in Illinois, how many total negative test. Lot of data not available for us not in the loop to make much of a judgement call.
Comment by Arock Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 1:52 pm
First, kudos to the IDPH for releasing this info.
All models are wrong, some models are useful.
This number is sure to be wrong, and 90% likely to be an underestimate.
As long as their model is not off by an order of magnitude, atleast it shows they are taking the right factors into account.
More importantly is the government being transparent in their thinking and not withholding — and especially not acting upon — inside information.
I am thinking back to that scene in Contagion where the CDC doctor calls his girlfriend from Atlanta to tell her to get out of Chicago.
Also, they are preparing folks mentally as quickly as possible for an intense and prolonged alteration of our normal way of life.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 2:12 pm
According to the Pantagraph online site, the Mclean County Board Chairman has issued an Emergency Proclamation. This initiates the Emergency Operations Center for the county. The article states that there are now four confirmed Coronavirus cases in the county.
The proclamation is effective for seven days with the county board to meet prior to the expiration to consider continuation.
Online article stated it would be updated.
Comment by Nearly Normal Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 2:40 pm
There are almost certainly at least 3400 actual people with covid-19 in Illinois right now. The most reliable indicator is deaths. So:
–Mortality rate is 0.5% to 1.0%.
–It’s a two-week incubation period.
–The people dying now got it two weeks ago, at least.
So if you assume a 0.6% mortality rate, 667 people had it two weeks ago in Illinois. You only have to assume a very conservative 12% growth rate (cases double in 6 days; lots of evidence points to a faster growth rate) to arrive at 3258 cases as of yesterday.
Comment by Lowden Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 3:33 pm
Due to the delay in testing at the beginning of this event, we’re driving down a highway navigating only by the rear-view mirror, instead of the windshield. The number from test results going forward are going to be smaller than what’s really already happening, and that lag is ongoing. It’s already worse than we think, we just don’t know how much worse, so assume it’s beyond that.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Friday, Mar 20, 20 @ 4:29 pm
it has been proposed that 10,000 tests are needed daily, to be performed proportionally in each county. we are no where near that level. I don’t have any degree of confidence in the IDPH covid 19 increase projections since there is no firm representative sampling base yet to make such projections.
Comment by EAGLE 2 Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 12:16 am