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Please, don’t be a Covidiot

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* All of a sudden last night, this became a thing for certain elements of the far right…

* Look, I’d like to have the numbers, too, and I’ve asked for them. ProPublica is attempting to put together some data. But there are two things to consider here…

And…

The overall numbers track everywhere. So even without hospitalization numbers, we have a pretty good idea from looking at other countries and other states what they likely are here. In other words, despite what “Dr.” Glennon and his ilk say, we don’t actually need hospitalization numbers to see how bad things are.

What they instead appear to be doing is sowing doubt among the populace. There’s more than enough misinformation and panic out there already without trying to manufacture something out of thin air.

…Adding… Rep. Wilhour…

Rich:

The Governor has been very clear that the point of the preventative measures was to relieve pressure on the hospital system. Why would we not be specifically monitoring the pressure on the hospital system? How is that not extremely relevant? How can we make good decisions and properly allocate resources without knowing this? Yes, we need more data-the Governor has said this and I agree. Right now, there are only 2 data sets that are reliable: Deaths and Hospitalizations. I sure hope he has this information. He should be asked if he has it and if he has it, why not be transparent about it?

Serious legislators ask questions and demand all available data to ensure informed decisions are being made.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 10:59 am

Comments

1. It’s freaking exhausting. The imperial college released another model, accounting for (mostly) changes in people’s behavior and some changes in assumptions based on more data about the disease, and because the new model is less disastrous than the previous one we have Covidiots out there yelling that the whole thing has been made up. It’s infuriating.

   Comment by Perrid Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:04 am

2. This group of geniuses are part of the Covid denial group that is rising up on the far right.

   Comment by Demoralized Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:07 am

3. We need to test more and we need more tests. In McLean County as of yesterday we had only tested a little over 100 people and today we announced our 9th positive. We need to listen to science and not the tin foil hat crowd.

   Comment by The Real Captain Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:09 am

4. ===What they instead appear to be doing is sowing doubt among the populace. ===

   For some folks this is the only kind of “leadership” they’re proficient at.

   Comment by Candy Dogood Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:13 am

5. Mark Glennon is now a medical expert too? Huh, I kind of thought he was a one trick pony with his pension theft gig.

   Comment by Ole' Nelson Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:15 am

6. No matter how hard they try, they’re not getting a Trump tweet to put on mailers.

   Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:17 am

7. Mr. Rogers said to look for the helpers… when in trouble, look for the helpers.

   Yet to see Mr. Glennon or Mr. Skillicorn as helping… in any instance of the state’s crisis.

   Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:18 am

8. They need somebody to blame, and they’ll get plenty of assistance in this effort from the right wing media sphere. Top candidates are: Dirty cities, Blue State Governors, the media just wants to incite panic, China and their “culture.” I expect lots more dangerous Sabre rattling at China in the coming months

   Comment by SWIL_Voter Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:24 am

9. Glennon doesn’t need to know anything. He already was demanding the country end this virus malarky and get back to work already.

   If they were toremake It’s a Wonderful Life I think I have a great actor suggesting for the roll of Mr. Potter.

   Skillicorn was demanding the state reverse the shuttering of craft stores.

   I think everyone can see where his head is at.

   Comment by Morty Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:27 am

10. I think the entire State of Illinois is in a much better and safer place with representatives like Skillicorn & Wilhour not making policy decisions at all.

    Comment by Les Nessman Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:30 am

11. The growth in deaths from covid-19 unfortunately seems to suggest that the virus was doubling cases every three days, rather than earlier conservative estimates of 5-6 day doubling time. If we have a 0.6% mortality rate and 14-day incubation and that growth rate has not abated, we’re looking at roughly 80,000 people with covid-19 in Illinois right now. Let’s hope all the physical distancing measures, which really started about two weeks ago, slowed down that growth rate. We’ll know in a couple of weeks by looking at deaths. If we’re over 90 total deaths a week from now, not much has been done to slow the growth rate. If we’re at 50 or below, that’s real, material success.

    Comment by Lowden Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:34 am

12. “Ok. We’ve got most of the roles in our dystopian novel cast. We just need someone to play the irrational denier.”

    Skillicorn - “On it.”

    Comment by Montrose Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:34 am

13. Producers of a future “It’s a Wonderful Life” need someone with Lionel Barrymore’s talent, not some empty head who keeps saying “Illinois bad” and “Pensions bad.” and “Bankrupt Illinois.” over and over.

    Comment by Fly like an eagle Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:42 am

14. Still it would be nice if IDPH would be consistent with the data they present. Going through the news releases yesterday was frustrating. Would also like to know the number of those recovered. At one point early on we had one recovered case in Illinois now we have none. That doesn’t seem right.

    Comment by Downstate Illinois Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:44 am

15. ===Still it would be nice if IDPH would be consistent with the data they present===

    Totally agree. And, again, I want to see as much data as possible. But I do not want people unnecessarily sowing doubt.

    Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:51 am

16. I have yet to meet an individual who does not believe the Governor is handling this admirably and the President is bordering on dangerous in light of his lack of a consistent
    message.

    The Republican Party is a weaker, embarrassing relic of itself in large part due to the Eastern Bloc Neanderthals and the Carnival Barker in Chief.

    Global warming is still a hoax as well . . . . . .right? Lord help us.

    Comment by Say What? Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:54 am

17. ===I have yet to meet an individual===

    I’d say you need to get out more, but…

    Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:56 am

18. One of my relatives was notified, by phone, by the local health department, they had been exposed to the virus and needed to self quarantine. Same HD person told my relative “we have xx number of cases, but we aren’t reporting it because we don’t want to cause a panic”. Rural county. My relative has no reason to lie.

    Comment by Coronanon Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:57 am

19. Are they tracking how many positive cases have made a full recovery, if there is such a thing.

    Comment by Some Anonymous Dude (S.A.D.) Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:57 am

20. The essentially one-to-one correlation between cases, tests, hospitalizations, and deaths from the COVID-19 Tracking Project is useful. We need more data from Illinois and the U.S., but as of right now there is no reason to think we are any different from the rest of the country/world.

    I’m not sure why folks want to downplay a pandemic for which there is no current vaccine or cure. Yes, something like 80% of cases are mild and something like only 5% actually require hospitalization. But the death toll is rising by the day. We can celebrate the 98%-99% of people who fully recover, but the steps taken right now in Illinois, across the U.S. in many states, and globally are about saving those other 1%-2%. And with the Illinois’ fatalities increasing by 7 yesterday, 3 more than any previous day, we all need to do our best to stay at home and keep social distancing.

    Comment by Frank Manzo IV Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:01 pm

21. ===I have yet to meet an individual===

    Sorry, meant to say “intellectually adept individual”

    Comment by Say What? Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:02 pm

22. Mr. Glennon and Mr. Skillicorn spreading disinformation that neatly correlates to their worldview?

    I am shocked — shocked — to find that gambling is going on in here.

    Comment by thunderspirit Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:03 pm

23. Skillicorn is just upset there are no parades for him to march in right now.

    Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:11 pm

24. The synchronization of the right on talking points is quite breathtaking.

    Comment by Excitable Boy Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:19 pm

25. Good to hear you have been asking the hospitalization question, Mr. Miller. They do need to be careful calculating it, as I’ve read nationally that some are hospitalized with COVID-like symptoms before getting a test. Not sure if that is the case here.

    Comment by Joe Learner Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:21 pm

26. so much misinformation coming out. the docs do not know if when someone gets out of the hospital whether that person is still capable of passing on the virus. that is, they are still a public health issue. and the president talking about counties with the virus is like people posting on this site who are supporting a losing candidate by saying that the candidate won more counties. People, not counties.

    Comment by Amalia Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:22 pm

27. Meanwhile, Rep. Chris Miller has claimed on facebook that 47% of tests show a false positive.

    Comment by KSDinCU Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:26 pm

28. If any of them want to shows us in factual terms how the people who have dedicated theirs lives studying this kind of stuff as opposed to being politicians, I’ll be more than happy to listen. But this fake news screaming from the right needs to be muzzled before it kills someone.

    Comment by Fixer Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:28 pm

29. Rich, please link to my full article instead of your misleading description. I will have a response for you shortly. https://wirepoints.org/unacceptable-illinois-and-certain-other-states-not-releasing-covid-hospitalization-numbers-wirepoints/

    Comment by Mark Glennon Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:32 pm

30. Doubt could not be sown if consistent, accurate, and most importantly, complete data were available.

    Comment by Captain Obvious Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:37 pm

31. “”Rep. Chris Miller has claimed on facebook that 47% of tests show a false positive.”"

    He knows this how?

    Comment by walker Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:38 pm

32. === Rep. Chris Miller has claimed on facebook that 47% of tests show a false positive.””

    He knows this how?===

    Divine message?

    Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:39 pm

33. ===Doubt could not be sown if===

    LOL

    What planet are you on?

    Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 12:44 pm

34. Don’t know if this is what Rep. Miller was referring to, but this article refers to 47% false positive tests done in China early on during the crisis. Not with tests administered in America, however. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-tests-who.html

    Comment by Michael Westen Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:03 pm

35. There is little mystery here. President Trump has said that governors are exaggerating the epidemic. Trump’s supporters believe they data will vindicate the President. He is their Oracle, and they are his Chorus, in the Classical Greek sense.

    And yes, making the data public will not convince them. See “confirmation bias”,

    Instead, the best thing to do, as with global warming deniers, is to try to draw them into conversation about the science.

    Calling them Covidiots does not help. That isolates them from they science and medical community and deepens their misbelief.

    A word about Strykers graph: in Illinois the ratio of tests to positives is not 10 to 1.

    Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:03 pm

36. From Wirepoints: “It’s hospitalizations that matter, not the number of confirmed cases that are widely reported every day. Most cases are not at all serious.” . . . “Preventing hospital overload is the entire point of ‘bending the curve’ through drastic social distancing and shutdowns now throwing millions out of work. Nobody wants scenes develop here as they did in Northern Italy where triage forced doctors to decide who would live and the sick were left to die. However, it’s hospitalizations, not number of cases, that tell us about that risk.”

    Not really, since symptom free people can spread it, hospitalizations don’t tell us the risk. Imperial College in Britain epidemiologist Neil Ferguson estimated 2.2 million deaths in the US without shelter in place measures. University of Washington School of Medicine epidemiologists predict the peak mid April. Listen to the epidemiologists, don’t count hospitalizations.

    Comment by Mr. Green Genes Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:05 pm

37. Sow all the doubt you want. It’s a free country.

    Comment by Jack Sprat Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:06 pm

38. ==if consistent, accurate, and most importantly, complete data were available==

    lol. You’re sowing doubt with that comment by insinuating that data isn’t accurate.

    Comment by Demoralized Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:09 pm

39. === Sow all the doubt you want. It’s a free country.===

    Lemme guess, you get your “information” from twitter account @fyn5639755

    Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:09 pm

40. ==Sow all the doubt you want. It’s a free country.==

    That comment fits the definition of a Covidiot.

    Comment by Demoralized Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:10 pm

41. -Michael Westen- Thanks for digging that up. That probably is his source, but he provided no context and no link. He made the claim in reply to a comment, and he has not responded to my request for his source. My husband has family members in his district, and I don’t appreciate his spreading misinformation among people I care about.

    Comment by KSDinCU Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:11 pm

42. I read Mr. Glennon’s opinion piece and he is indeed sowing doubt by insinuating at the end of his opinion that decisions aren’t being made using good data. Just because that data isn’t being provided doesn’t mean that data isn’t being used to make decisions. And I think I’ll let the experts make public policy on a pandemic instead of the likes of Mr. Glennon. He’s hardly someone to listen to on the topic.

    Comment by Demoralized Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:12 pm

43. Mr. Glennon, Rep. Miller and others: South Side Bonnie has some words for you, and she’ll share them and more in the alley: https://twitter.com/RicWilson/status/1242563308185673729?s=20

    Comment by TGIF...nope Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:14 pm

44. Add Skilly and the Bond Guy to the EasternBlocHeads who have a long list of freebies and the always charming Rep/Sen Bryant who was on the radio this a.m. displaying previously unknown hospital siting expertise. Yikes. They could have their own think tank.

    Comment by Annonin Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:22 pm

45. From the ProPublica piece: “We’re hoping for one consistent dataset, … .”

    IF a statue / administrative reg had been implemented during the Blago / Quinn era mandating ALL hospitals release such data daily and post it to a DPH website, anyone want to guess what Skillicorn / Rauner / Glennon would have said about such a “mandate”? Would they have supported a claim from a privately owned hospital that such data was a “trade secret” that couldn’t be released?

    Comment by Anyone Remember Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:26 pm

46. Westen Thanks for looking that up. That’s what I should have done

    Comment by walker Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 1:46 pm

47. @Anyone Remember: it is disingenuous to suggest that the Governor and IDPH don’t have the data. In fact, if they do not have the data they are incompetent. We already have a law that requires that info to be shared, it’s called FOIA. But it should not come to that.

    Ohio stated 1% of their population was infected as of two weeks ago. There is every reason to believe Illinois was on par with or slightly ahead of them by that point, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 8% of Illinoisan’s are infected now based on an R-naught of 2.2.

    Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:10 pm

48. -…epidemiologist Neil Ferguson estimated 2.2 million deaths in the US without shelter in place measures.-

    They gonna die at home?

    Comment by CapnCrunch Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:12 pm

49. Thomas Paine -
    Law / regulation that requires reporting the data, s’il vous plait. (Has to be reported before it can be available under FOIA.)

    Comment by Anyone Remember Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:19 pm

50. The hospitalization rate does not tell you much early on when testing is focused on those most likely to have the virus and with the most serious symptoms. The hospitalization rate will drop as testing is expanded to healthier individuals. In NY the rate was 18% and has dropped to about 12% as of a few days ago. The rate in the US may well be 10%.

    Comment by Still anon Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:19 pm

51. Please ask Pritzker why Illinois is so far behind other states, especially New York, when it comes to testing.

    Comment by Still anon Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:20 pm

52. =Calling them Covidiots does not help.=

    You may be right. But there also seems to be a belief that we can somehow reach these individuals and educate them. I’m highly doubtful of that. When you shut yourself off from views or news that conflicts with your view of the world, there’s not much that can be done to alter the reality short of having the disaster land at your doorstep.

    Comment by Pundent Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:27 pm

53. Still anon, are you a sentient being? Read up on it for crying out loud

    Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 2:36 pm

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