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* Gov. Pritzker said the other day that he was trying to learn from mistakes made by Italy and others to avoid repeating them in Illinois. Dylan Scott at Vox takes a look at what Italy did wrong…
Italy’s political leaders did not act preemptively despite evidence suggesting such delayed increases in cases were possible. State-of-emergency declarations were shrugged off by the public and political leaders. In one ominous episode, a group of politicians engaged in deliberate handshakes even after the Covid-19 risks were known — and one of them was diagnosed with the infection a week later. […]
Italy started small with its coronavirus containment and only expanded it as the scale of the problem revealed itself. The country started with a targeted strategy: certain areas with a lot of infections were designated as “red zones.” Within the red zones, there were progressive lockdowns depending on the severity of the outbreak in the area. The restrictions were only broadened to the whole country when these measures did not stop the virus’s spread.
In fact, these limited lockdowns might have made it worse. Because the coronavirus transmits so silently, the “facts on the ground” (number of cases, deaths, etc.) didn’t actually capture the full scale of the problem. Once partial lockdowns went into effect, people fled to less restricted parts of the country — and they may have unwittingly taken the virus with them, according to the Harvard researchers: […]
Italy’s experience indicates that truncated social distancing periods and a mishmash of social distancing policies across different interlocked areas will ultimately only prolong and deepen the problem. Luckily, the country’s provinces that took a more proactive approach may have something to teach their neighbors — and the US.
Click here to read what some places in Italy did right.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 9:09 am
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JB needs to make it clear that this is through the end of April, at least.
Also, the school year is over.
Its early but wonder how Africa will do…
Comment by Bill speaks the truth Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 9:56 am
As many have pointed out, more leadership needs to come from the White House. We can’t have someone in there railing against the news media and bragging about television ratings. We need a compassionate, engaged leader.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 10:07 am
Off topic, but unless our beloved “Bill” has returned from the dead, there can be no other Bill.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 10:19 am
Unfortunately I fear that we are making some of the same mistakes as Italy. Beyond people ignoring the social distancing guidelines, we still have states that aren’t taking this seriously. Arizona is a good case in point as the governor refuses to issue a stay at home order and has barred local municipalities from doing so as well. The rationale is that the number of cases isn’t that high - yet. But the reason for taking action now is to prevent the disease from spreading. Waiting until it’s too late is what doomed Italy. Progress made in one state will only be negated by others that don’t take this seriously.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 10:20 am
So basically the federal patchwork right now is similar to how Italy initially responded.
Comment by Boone's is Back Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 10:25 am
The Governor of Florida also hasn’t issued a stay at home order. The municipalities have had to step up because Florda’s Governor has refused to. He’s done some things around the edges and has now decided that stopping people coming in on the interstates is the way to go as if that’s going to help the situation. It’s already in Florida. I suspect this guy is more worried about the economics of the situation rather than the health of his citizens.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 10:26 am
Being myself Italian (and I went to Italy last in July of last year), I follow the news over there on an hourly basis in hope to get an idea of what to expect over here. Yes, the US acted in the same way as Italy did in February by not taking the threat seriously. But I am starting to see comments from the Italian authorities that the restrictions are beginning to produce results. The “red zones” over there did see a slow to a halt in new cases. But there is also great concern that there is a HUGE number of undetected cases, which would explain the very high mortality rate (10.5%). We will get the next daily update at 11 AM (6 PM CET) or so from the “Protezione Civile” (the Dept. of Civil Protection). Hopefully the decrease in new deaths will continue.
Comment by Tomacci Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 10:57 am
Made a trip into town last week for groceries. No different than before the Gov’s EO. Only thing closed was Rent-A-Center. Even the hardware stores were open.
Comment by MH Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 11:00 am
==we are making some of the same mistakes as Italy==
I read this morning about churches holding services in Florida and Louisiana. Weeks from now, will church elders and parishioners take responsibility for infecting (possibly killing) the least among us…or will they attribute it to God’s will?
Comment by Jocko Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 11:12 am
I believe hardware and home improvement stores are considered essential businesses.
Comment by Captain Who Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 11:28 am
==Hopefully the decrease in new deaths will continue.==
812 new deaths reported in Italy bringing the total number up to 11,591. While rate of new cases is going down, the death rate is still constant. To me, this is an additional indicator that the real number of cases is at least five times more. I am saying all this because it applies to our country too. The real danger is the unreported number of cases, almost all asymptomatic, but contagious at the same time.
Comment by Tomacci Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 11:28 am
Italy had no Italy to see how not to do things. At least we had Italy to see where we were heading.
India is really botching this. Instead of paying itinerant workers to stay where they are (most only make $5 a day) they are all going home to their villages rather than starve. And the government doesn’t know if they are infected or not.
Comment by Muddy Trail Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 12:05 pm
Here’s an interesting article that gives a very educated “guessstimate” on the real number of infected people in Italy: 11,000,000, 110 times more than the reported number. Transpose that number to the U.S., there could be as many as 17 million people out there, 99.1% of which are either thinking they have a cold or don’t know that they have the virus.
Use Google Translate to read in English.
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_30/coronavirus-foresti-santagostino-contagiati-italia-sono-almeno-11-milioni-daeb3994-728f-11ea-bc49-338bb9c7b205.shtml
Comment by Tomacci Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 12:52 pm
Remember the Italian politician that encouraged a “Hug a Chinese person” campaign??
Comment by JudgeDavidDavis Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 12:53 pm
Arizona and Texas are going to be disasters. Their numbers appear low now, but that will happen when you test very few people. And their governors refuse to issue stay at home orders. Rather, they think they can just keep people from the infected areas out. Wishful thinking.
Comment by Smalls Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 2:32 pm
A key factor that is not being discussed is smoking. Tobacco smokers and marijuana smokers both are risk factors for poor outcomes. While China has enormous smoking rates, so does Italy. In the US marijuana is a new factor as is obesity. Each region will have its own nuances related to risk that are different from the factors known in other countries. So while we’re looking at those countries for insights, we should make sure to understand unique factors only the US — or Illinois have to themselves.
Comment by Ed Equity Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 4:05 pm
- -In the US marijuana is a new factor as is obesity- -
When were either of those things “new”?
Comment by Fly like an eagle Monday, Mar 30, 20 @ 7:12 pm
“I believe hardware and home improvement stores are considered essential businesses.” Scheels reopened because their guns and ammo section is considered essential.
Comment by gdubya Tuesday, Mar 31, 20 @ 9:53 am