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Is it starting to work?

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Illinois

* Lisa Schencker and Joe Mahr at the Tribune…

The number of COVID-19 cases in Illinois could exceed 19,000 a little more than a week from now, according to a new analysis by experts at Rush — but that’s far less than the 147,000 cases the state could have seen by then if residents had not retreated to their homes. […]

The Rush calculator, which includes four growth models, projects how the number of Illinois cases might increase over the next week or so, depending on how fast the illness spreads. It also includes forecasts as far as 30 days out, but Hota said those more distant forecasts are far less reliable.

According to the calculator, Illinois could have expected to see 146,581 cases by April 9 if cases had continued growing at the fast pace seen earlier in March.

In the earlier stages of the illness’s spread, Rush University Medical Center saw a doubling of cases every two to three days, Hota said. But the growth rate in new cases has slowed, and the medical center is now seeing a doubling every five to six days.

However, testing is still spotty and private labs are overwhelmed and unable to provide timely results.

Just do your best and stay at home.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 10:15 am

Comments

I have to believe these drastic measures are helping to slow the spread and that will result in fewer lives lost. I’m thankful our Governor had what it took to roll the stay-at-home order out sooner, rather than later.

Comment by XonXoff Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 10:30 am
Of course social distancing works.

And of course, the Chicago Tribune looks like they’re misusing a model intended to help medical professionals plan by playing with hypothetical numbers to report results that mean nothing because that’s not what the model should have done.

===According to the calculator, Illinois could have expected to see 146,581 cases by April 9===

Just some person in a press room putting numbers into a tool to create a news story.

None of what we’re doing now matters if we don’t all stay home for at least a few more weeks. None of it. Watch the Tribune start referencing their own garbage in a few days when they suggest we can begin reopening non-essential businesses because what we’re doing has already accomplished their goal because someone in their press room used a planning tool for something it wasn’t intended to do.

Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 10:31 am
It definitely didn’t hurt.

Meanwhile, right next door in Cape Girardeau county, they have had 19 positive tests, and a governor who refuses to deal with this head on. Medical professionals in Mo are begging him to do what Pritzker has.
Sure hope Union county residents who don’t have to go to Cape, don’t go to Cape.

Comment by efudd Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 10:33 am
Very glad we have a governor, and for Chicagoans and others a mayor, who are proactive and working to reduce fatalities and pain and suffering, which is happening on many levels.
Mayor Lightfoot has been terrific.

The worry nationally is lack of uniformity in how we try to minimize the virus’ spread.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 10:55 am
Same with Hannibal.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 11:44 am
It sounds like we need to close the border between here and MO.

Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 12:40 pm
There is no doubt that physical distancing will help. How much physical distancing is going on is questionable. I drove by a Walmart parking lot this weekend and it was packed.

But I think it is far too early to tell how much it is helping yet. Testing has gaping holes. The best barometer is deaths and hospitalizations without robust testing. But according to the World Health Organization, the average time lapse between symptoms and death is 18 days. That means we probably should not be seeing much impact yet on death rates from changes implemented just two weeks ago.

Also, the data is going to have a lot of irregularity as it moves from community to community in Illinois, having very different hospitalization and mortality rates as it moves from business travelers, through nursing homes and prisons, across St Patrick’s Day revelers, etc.

If we had some standardized reporting of testing you could extrapolate how many people are infected right now. We don’t.

So just follow Samuel L Jackson’s advice.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Apr 1, 20 @ 3:29 pm