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Slowing the upward curve is just not enough

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* We talked yesterday about how the state’s new infection doubling rate had dropped. It’s basic math to figure out what could have happened if that doubling rate hadn’t been curtailed. Here’s Heather Cherone at her new WTTW gig…

By the time Gov. J.B. Pritzker ordered Chicagoans to stay home in an effort to stop the spread of the new coronavirus starting March 21, the number of confirmed cases was more than doubling every three days in Chicago, setting the city on a catastrophic course.

Had that pace of infections remained steady, 2,000 Chicagoans would have died and approximately 64,500 people would have been sickened by COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, according to new data released by Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

Instead, the governor’s order and the mayor’s campaign to get Chicagoans to stay home through a series of humorous memes and videos mixed with stern warnings has saved at least 1,700 lives, according to newly released city data. […]

The number of cases of the virus is now doubling every 12 days [in Chicago], according to the data.

* But it wasn’t just the orders…

“In many places, many people started staying at home before the orders came out,” [Ali Mokdad at the University of Washington] told me. “Many companies moved to working from home,” he said, including Seattle giant Microsoft, which switched to work-from-home several weeks before formal stay-at-home orders were put in place in the city.

* And the future is unclear…

Most schemes to reopen the country rely on this: They require that case numbers fall for 14 days before the US starts loosening restrictions. The idea is that two weeks of falling cases is enough that it can’t just be a coincidence, and enough to lower the overall case count so regions can trace contacts and use more intensive monitoring approaches in a targeted way.

But even in the parts of the country that have now been living under extensive restrictions for several weeks, case numbers aren’t falling across the board — though in some areas (most crucially New York) they do seem to be. Other, more reliable measures like hospitalizations and deaths, aren’t falling either. That’s why the CMMID estimates the RO in the US at about 1 — each sick person is infecting about one more person. […]

In other words, social distancing is definitely working — but the question of whether it is working well enough remains to be seen, and the fact that numbers are plateauing rather than falling isn’t a great sign.

“It seems that the press has been eager to push the narrative of ‘we are near the peak!’ and ‘the end is in sight,’ but given the strong uncertainty about the future and lack of clear consensus among modelers, I think these messages are premature,” UMass infectious disease researcher Nicholas Reich argued.

This is exactly what we talked about earlier today. Reporters should take note.

* And Gov. Pritzker may well need to do something more like perhaps require masks in public to finally start pushing these new case numbers down. [Changed the link and deleted a graph.]

We’re not getting out of this mess until those new case numbers consistently fall for a period of time.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 1:43 pm

Comments

This is where I meant to put this comment.

How is it possible that that this far into a pandemic which has already claimed more than 30,000 American lives we’re still getting the denial crowd reacting to the proposition of masks as if someone said they were banning guns. People, we are all in this together. The stay at home order is likely to continue for all the reasons Rich laid out above. You need to get used to this awful situation. It sucks. I hate it. My kids hate it. My friends hate it.

Oh, and I guarantee you the governor hates it. All those commenters who think Governor Pritzker is enjoying putting restrictions on people need to have your head examined. This is an awful, awful situation. But the sooner we comply with restrictions, stop gathering in groups and start wearing masks in public, the sooner we can get back to normal.

Comment by Southern Skeptic Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:08 pm
re: masks and reopening: From your fingers to the governor’s ears, I hope.

Comment by Stuff Happens Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:12 pm
Mr. Reich said “It seems that the press has been eager to push the narrative of ‘we are near the peak!’…”

My news sources are CNN, Washington Post, New York Times and other national reporting organizations. In my opinion, the only time they’re talking like that is when they’re reporting out on what President Trump and others who agree with him are saying…

Comment by WeAreAVillage Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:15 pm
===My news sources are===

Look at the reporter questions Pritzker gets every day. It matches what Reich says.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:16 pm
Just want to extend a thank you to Rich for all the work he has done keeping everyone informed about the COVD-19.

Many of Rich’s comments and posts: have been one of the more informative on the internet, does not try to gloss over things, tries to deal in facts, and tries to give people the direct but hard truths.

Comment by Big Jer Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:20 pm
Rather than curtail everyone’s civil liberties why don’t we focus on where it will do the most good. The increases in cases, particularly downstate, have been centered at group quarters, whether nursing homes and assisted living centers, group homes for the developmentally disabled, or prisons and detention centers, i.e., places of high population density, not the general public.

We have a second problem with infected people not staying home but circulating in the community. We have at least one local resident where that is a problem. We need to target resources on court-ordered forced quarantines if necessary.

Comment by Downstate Illinois Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:24 pm
=== curtail everyone’s civil liberties===

“Look, people can’t un-die, but if you infringe civil liberties one more time we’d rather risk dying than take steps for our own safety”

It’s like the NBA player who touched all the microphones… who was patient zero for the league.

It’s so tiring.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:29 pm
==Rather than curtail everyone’s civil liberties==

Oh boo hoo. Some of you really need to grow the heck up with your constant bellyaching about “oh, my, they are taking away my civil liberties.” Are some of you really that ignorant to not realize the reasons for some of the actions being taken? Are you really that dense?

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:31 pm
==We need to target resources on court-ordered forced quarantines==

Also, I find it odd you are complaining about your civil liberties being violated while at the same time advocating court ordered quarantines. Do I agree with you if people who are sick don’t stay home? You betcha. But, jeez man, having a court order someone to stay home seems like a pretty big civil liberties issue. Just sayin.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:34 pm
Dem - like I said, you act like the bratty child in school that is always criticizing others for being “wrong”.

Comment by NothingBurger Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:36 pm
Go away

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:39 pm
=Gov. Pritzker may well need to do something more like perhaps require masks in public =

New York just did that: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-face-masks-andrew-cuomo.html

Comment by JoanP Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:42 pm
=== curtail everyone’s civil liberties===

Don’t we also have civil liberties to not be coughed on by you?

Comment by West Town TB Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:45 pm
– It matches with Reich says —

that’s unfortunate. perhaps those reporters need to broaden their news sources….they have a civic responsibility to understand the subject matters they report on as much as possible.

Comment by WeAreAVillage Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:47 pm
===It’s like the NBA player who touched all the microphones… who was patient zero for the league.===

I was thinking “Don’t be a Gobert” was going to be a trend, but the overall wave of the virus has dwarfed any single person or event.

In retrospect, we may owe Rudy a bit of thanks. The stay at home concept became more real to many people when there were no pro or college basketball games to attend. Then baseball and hockey. When the biggest of businesses started taking this seriously, the other businesses realized they could not afford to be outliers.

Comment by Proud Sucker Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 2:53 pm
Sure. Lock-down the elderly, esp those with health conditions, all obese people, smokers, vapers, asthmatics and let the rest of us get on with our lives. You all still collecting a pay-check? Well, you won’t for long if the lock-down of workers continues.

Comment by MJH Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:07 pm
The masks in public idea should be suggested and the governor and those on tv can lead by example but it really isn’t enforceable and that will be plain after a few don’t comply.

Comment by John's Daughter Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:13 pm
==let the rest of us get on with our lives.==

While you’re at it, we can start our first day of freedom by blasting the ‘Purge’ siren.

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:14 pm
==but it really isn’t enforceable==

It would be, at least indoors, if he mandated that businesses that are still open not allow individuals in who aren’t wearing masks.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:14 pm
==Lock-down the elderly, esp those with health conditions, all obese people, smokers, vapers, asthmatics and let the rest of us get on with our lives==

So basically nothing changes as far as a stay at home order.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:15 pm
==why don’t we focus on where it will do the most good. The increases in cases, particularly downstate, have been centered at group quarters, …, i.e., places of high population density, not the general public. ==

The documented cases have been and remain an artifact of who is tested. The daily numbers go up and down with the number of tests administered, with an average of 20-25% positives. Those concentrations may be actual focal points of infection OR they may simply we where testing has occurred. And, because we are testing people in those places at high rates, the latter is more likely the case.

So, a lack of documented cases is not the same as a lack of infection. As the Gov keeps stressing, until there is widespread, rapid testing, we cannot go back to “normal” without significant risk.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:27 pm
One issue with the “flattening the curve” is that there is the same volume/number of infected people under the flatter curve. This spreads out the duration. The benefit is that you don’t overload the hospitals and ICUs. But it lasts a lot longer.

Comment by Groundhog Day Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:34 pm
GD
That is what I have always thought the curve depicted. If so, why don’t they ever speak to the fact, flatting the curve or not, the same number of people get the virus, become ill, and potentially die, its just spread out over a longer period of time so the curve never reaches as high.

If we are wrong, someone show us what the curve differences are otherwise.

Comment by Burgee Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 3:48 pm