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* You had to figure this was going to happen…

After weeks of speculation over the fate of some of Chicago’s biggest summer festivals, the official word arrived Tuesday morning.

Out of an abundance of caution and adhering to state-mandated stay-at-home guidelines and social distancing guidelines from the CDC, the following events have been canceled according to the Department of Cultural Affairs and Special Events (DCASE):

• 4th annual Chicago House Music Conference & Festival, May 21–24, various venues
• Chicago’s Memorial Day Parade and Wreath Laying Ceremony, May 23
• 35th Chicago Gospel Music Festival, May 27–30 in Millennium Park and the Chicago Cultural Center
• 37th annual Chicago Blues Festival, June 5-7 in Millennium Park

…The cancellations reflect only specific DCASE-run festivals through early June, and according to the official announcement, “is not official City guidance for other event producers; they should continue to follow the public health guidance of the CDC, City and State officials.”

* And even if late-summer events happen, large crowds may not show up. From one of those polls we discussed earlier…

Two-thirds of Americans (67 percent), including 66 percent of independents and 64 percent of Republicans, say they will continue to practice social distancing even after official restrictions are lifted; just 13 percent of Americans say they will not.

* The governor was asked yesterday how much testing needs to be done to reopen the economy. This was part of his answer…

Look, there’s not an exact number, but I would tell you this, that you need a lot more testing than we have today.

And the reason I say it that way, I’m saying not an exact number because you can debate this question. I would argue that as we start to think about it, remember you need a lot of other preconditions even according to the White House model of how to move into phase one of what they’re calling reopening. You have to get past the peak, you know, you have to have 14 days of numbers going down, right, all those conditions.

But on the testing front, I would ask you this question: What would make you feel comfortable going back into your place of work, how much testing [of] other people work with you, near you? How much, what would you need to feel comfortable as you go to work every day knowing that everybody in your workplace goes home, and they go to, the grocery store and they go to wherever it is they go visit their grandmother and so on and then they come back to work the next day?

* The Question: What’s your answer to the governor’s question?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:08 am

Comments

Well, when you put it like that…

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:18 am
If a trend is established and keeps going down I would be satisfied if just keep testing randomly. If trend doesn’t go down I would want lots of testing and if it is discovered many many people have had this and were asymptotic I would settle for less testing with perhaps at risk people being asked to stay home I understand Governors problem. No correct answer and you will called out no matter what.

Comment by DuPage Saint Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:18 am
I’m not sure about a hard number as much as it should be inversely proportional to a decrease in cases. In other words, if we get the magic 14 days of decreases in hospitalizations/ICU/intubations/new cases, we need to see a baseline amount of 10k tests or even more over that same period.

Comment by Eloy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:19 am
The notion that testing would make me feel any safer. A big fat no.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:21 am
My response to the governor’s question would be another question.

“What do you think should be done to an entity that declares themselves to be a “Sanctuary” to your decree?

Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:24 am
Testing might make some feel better, but remember there are such things as flawed tests. And more importantly, that test is one moment in time. What about tomorrow? 3 days from now? If possible the work from home is certainly doable for many companies. For others? Social distancing, limited contact at workplace is possible. For those running out to experience their freedoms? Don’t come near me please.

Comment by Ano Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:24 am
I’ve been wrestling with that question. I actually had a organization’s national convention planned for early summer here in Springfield, which I have now tentatively shifted to late August.

My answer at the moment is I will know it when I see it. Things like not only a leveling but a steady decline in cases. Businesses back open with new social distancing modes of operation. Excess hospital capacity and more normal operation.

That’s not really a good answer, but it’s what I have right now.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:25 am
Adding … surprised Chicago area is just now getting around to cancelling early June events. I’ve been seeing things already cancelled with early August dates.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:26 am
It depends on the type of testing and how its being deployed. As a first step I’d want to see widespread serology testing. We need to know how much of the population has antibodies to this. Having that data will help a lot of us feel safe as we’ll know that we have immunity at least in the short term and possibly longer. And for those that don’t have immunity they will know that they are susceptible to contracting the virus. With widespread testing of that population people can being to self-isolating at the onset of symptoms. The collective benefit of being able to execute on both of these issues is that we’ll continue to see fewer and fewer positive cases which in turn will make us feel a lot safer. Regardless of any political motivations, the country isn’t safe until enough of us feel safe. And that doesn’t happen anytime soon without a lot more testing.

Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:29 am
Given the wide variety of symptoms of COVID that are known that range from totally asymptomatic to death, I can’t answer that question until I get tested myself to see if I have/have already had it. Since the vast majority of the population still can’t answer that basic question, I don’t think we can open anything back up until we get that far.

Comment by Sterling Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:33 am
We are an essential industry helping other businesses in a time of crisis. Our downstate office with 13 staff has never closed. We asked employees to practice common sense sanitizing, self-distancing and to stay home if you even think you have a sniffle. No outside access to the facility and little if any employee travel. Reduced hours on some days, catered lunch on others. Has anyone been tested? Don’t think so and we aren’t going to line them up and mandate it as a requirement to continue work. Somehow along the way society is going to have to accept that there are going to be chances of getting sick - that’s no different than any other illness. We have never mandated a flu shot in the past and I don’t think we’re going to mandate a Covid test. Would I feel better knowing they have a negative test result? Sure, but common sense also weighs heavily and I’m not going to tell a 25 year old employee they must have a test as a condition to work.

Comment by Wylie Coyote Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:33 am
I definite don’t feel comfortable about going back to the office to work for another month. Beyond that impossible to predict… We will have to see where we really are at in a month.

Comment by twowaystreet Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:33 am
“How much testing needs to be done to reopen the economy?”

I would say less than or equal to 1% of the population isn’t a good measure, but putting a number on tests like 500,000 or “79” isn’t at all a great measure either.

The measure to your question is gather numbers but the safety to that number.

If there’s a 14 day continued decrease and all other steps are being followed to get through Step 1, that should dictate a wider, broader opening.

My biggest fear to any type of opening, even a partial rollout? The a-symptomatics. The testing needs to get to where the a-symptomatic infections can be seen not only as manageable, and not just the acceptable herd thought, but seeing how going to beyond Step 1 won’t bring us quickly back to a beginning with hot spots overwhelming areas like central and southern Illinois which have had fewer cases.

What we’ve done thru April is make the testing and the three T’s the most logical and possible way to measure how quickly we can return, and how the testing ramp up should be measured in the White House plan and apply those testing measures to open Illinois as safe as possible.

Opening to open without the science won’t give the public confidence, hopefully the benchmarks and ramp ups will build that confidence too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:35 am
We would feel most comfortable if Darrin & Rodney would load the yokels into the clown car and over to East Stump Jump to gather in place with the EasternBLocHeads.

Comment by Annonin Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:39 am
Wylie… Us as well in 7 states with warehouses. Office folks working from home. We distance, masks, and clean 3 times a day.We act as if EVERYONE has it, because that what the CDC is proposing. Office folks will come back with distancing here in Illinois and the same set up.. It can be done and has been. I am not telling any of our 2000 + workforce with no symptoms to have a negative test. If they show signs, you’re off for 2 weeks of no signs. The road map has been out for a month.

Comment by CCM Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:40 am
For me it is not the number that matters as much as testing on demand. If I can get tested even if I am not showing symptoms or ‘qualify’ for testing; that is the benchmark for me. Wide availability of testing on demand. it can either be testing for the virus OR testing for antibodies. Either one.

Comment by indianbadger Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:44 am
The measure I have seen that makes some sense is not based on a number of tests but on the percentage of positive results of those tested. Currently, when the percentage of positive results gets down to the 3-5% range, that seems to be an indication that a representative sample of the population is being tested.

For me, when we are able to collect a random, representative sample, I will feel comfortable.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:44 am
Your questions are moot for many Governor as we have been working this entire time…public safety and emergency services are 24/7/365.

Comment by LawandOrder Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:44 am
I like pundent’s answer. If I were not in the high risk category and especially if I were very young, I would venture out under his conditions. As I am not, no amount of testing is going to make me feel safe and I will be waving to all of you from my window until there are treatments that put a huge dent in the death rate and/or a reliable vaccine.

Comment by Rachel Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:46 am
For me, testing only tells me that at this moment, I’m covid-free. I’m still at the mercy of every person (and surface) I come into contact with.

I’m not requiring that everyone wear masks and gloves, but at the very least it sends a message that you are (reasonably) symptom free and can be trusted to circulate in the community.

Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:47 am
I work in state government and I would not feel comfortable returning without the proper re-opening based on the federal guidelines. There are too many people visiting the complex on a daily basis from all around the state and all it would take is one person to be infected without showing symptoms to cause a huge outbreak.

Comment by IMO Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:48 am
To add…

Any plan or rollout without the confidence of the public will not bring about an opening that will be helpful to businesses.

So, adding, the testing needs to be seen in many lights but as important a light is to bring confidence to moving the state forward too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:56 am
For a start, I’d want a large sample of people whose jobs currently bring them into contact with the general public–grocery store workers, cashiers, delivery drivers, restaurant workers, transportation, health and safety workers. That will tell us a bit about how effective our current efforts are as we look at opening up more businesses and services to the general public. I’m not sure what a “large sample” is though, nor when it would be come realistic given testing capacity. Nor what kind of follow up would need to be done once we had results. Grateful for the people who have that expertise at this time.

Comment by Earnest Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:57 am
Testing? On a weekly basis? Monthly basis? When feeling under the weather? How will I know if others around me were tested? Or if they are being truthful about their results? As you can probably tell by now, the lawyer in me has a ton of questions. Hanging our hats, in a manner of speaking, on testing only in the absence of a vaccine or even something more than generic types of treatment without any special medications identified to treat this virus, is one thing. It is only a start.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 11:59 am
OW..I don’t think testing is the only indicator. Our sampling of 200 plus employees in 7 states show by the confirmed cases on one hand shows distancing, masks, and aggressive cleaning has worked. It certainly isn’t the media or political reality. It’s the actual reality. Just a real world observation. It has taken plenty of “floor” presence to show people you are pointing out what we do to keep them safe. No punching in and out to congregate. Distance lunch breaks was alot of work at first, but it’s all worked! Please, everyone, there is plenty of positives if we follow guidelines.

Comment by CCM Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:02 pm
I won’t re-emerge until there is widespread diagnostic and serology testing, and by widespread, I mean, anyone can literally get a test when they want it AND get results within 24 hours.

But that’s just when I’ll re-emerge. I won’t feel comfortable and I won’t attend any even small-scale gatherings (50+) until there’s a proven, effective treatment and/or a vaccine. Unless it’s session, then I’ll have to.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:10 pm
No amount of testing would make me feel better because there are too many covidiots out there spreading the disease who won’t get tested. I won’t feel comfortable until there is some sort of treatment.

Comment by Just Me 2 Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:13 pm
The test capacity needs to be such that anyone showing symptoms can be tested plus the tracking capacity to notify and test people COVID positive individuals came into contact in the days prior to the test. I don’t know what that is, but it’s a whole lot bigger than what we have now.

Comment by In 630 Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:14 pm
=== I don’t think testing is the only indicator.===

Ok. What do you base this on?

=== Our sampling of 200 plus employees in 7 states show…===

You think that’s a better sampling than a much broader testing sample than the meager 1% of the US.

That doesn’t pass my confidence test part.

Anecdotal “evidence” isn’t science.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:20 pm
== Two-thirds of Americans (67 percent), including 66 percent of independents and 64 percent of Republicans, say they will continue to practice social distancing even after official restrictions are lifted; just 13 percent of Americans say they will not. ==

This is the thing to me. I don’t think my behavior will change too much in the broad strokes (I’m going to keep going to bars and whatnot), but I think we are all much more hyper aware of the biological soup we are constantly wading through.

We’ll see how long everyone’s improved hygiene and the like last.

Comment by Homebody Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:32 pm
When antibody tests are universal so we know who has had it and who has not. Then, after the number of those who have had it tops 70% I’ll feel better about riding in a crowded elevator again.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:35 pm
When you can buy a pack of genuine 3M N95 masks and nitrile gloves at the local hardware store and still have some on the shelf.

Testing isn’t going to do it. What happens if you have a negative test and go out for dinner and sit next to an asymptomatic super spreader? A week later when you are out on the couch, you’re thinking - How can I have covid19? I had a negative test.

The only way testing will work is nationwide, wide spread, mandatory, random, and repeated testing to ruthlessly hunt down those who are asymptomatic and quarantine them.

Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:42 pm
I’m not sure when I will feel comfortable going into work at my office. The room is not open to the public but the hallways, other rooms, and lobby are. Can’t get to my office from my car and practice social distancing. Elevator will not be big enough if even 1 other person is on it. How often will everything be wiped down?

As to big social events…. have you seen pictures of the Decatur Celebration streets when the headliner band is playing? It’s cancelled this year and that’s a good thing.

I’m over 60 and was so looking forward to retirement and traveling. No idea when I will feel comfortable doing that.

Comment by thoughts matter Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:42 pm
I’m actually more concerned with treatments than testing - I’m not sure we can effectively test/treat/isolate, at least anytime before we probably HAVE to start at least partial return to work. But if effective treatments (and widespread availability) could push the “death or serious consequences numbers” down, and we can get enough quality masks for the public (let alone our hospitals), that might be risk I could assume.

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:44 pm
My number is lower than most we have that 1 guy who just won’t stay home when he’s hacking all over. Test him regularly and I’m back to work.

Joking aside most of the work I do can be done outdoors w folks who are taking it seriously and I can social distance between co-workers while in the office, will take more vehicles of course, but w masks for public wear and hand washing, i’m ok with starting back up with the Fauci guidelines. I’m also downstate closer to the metro east I understand people with other perspectives.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:49 pm
No one intentionally wants to get sick i.e. “I feel confident/comfortable that I will not get polio because I have been vaccinated”

So to me, comfortable at work and interfacing with people in close contact is about having a readily available cure/vaccination.

Willing and necessary - which I think is the true question - when there is scientific evidence along with the medical capacity to handle those who are sick with CV-19 AND any elective/emergency procedures

Comment by Former Candidate on the Ballot Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:52 pm
A vaccine to cure it would make me really feel comfortable.

Until then watching trends on a county by county basis and then making my own judgment.

Comment by OpentoDiscussion Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:52 pm
=== There is risk to everyday life. I’m willing to go back to work and send my kids back to school right now. I do not fear travel or interaction with others.===

Very cavalier with your life, the lives of your loved ones, and my life and the lives I’m in contact with too.

This is probably why I won’t be going to restaurants, businesses, large gatherings… not for a while.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:57 pm
=== I believe this way of thinking is growing fast and will soon be the majority.===

Confidence is earned, blind faith isn’t confidence.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 12:58 pm
I would feel better if national and state officials worked together. That doesn’t solve it but we might get a solution sooner. Plus, if we could all row the same direction there would be less anxiety.

I don’t have a specific answer to the Governor’s question. I’m probably going to hang back when the gate starts to open.

Comment by Dog Lover Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:03 pm
Answer: When they announce they have a treatment protocol that works, with high reliability, and when there’s a vaccine proven effective. Testing is important, but testing doesn’t cure you. I get it that vaccines will take a long time. But when they announce they have the combination of meds and therapies that defeat the symptoms and get you thru the infection without your lungs aging 50 years, then I’m going to be more relaxed about going back. There seems to be good progress being made on identifying and on defeating what they call a “cytokine storm,” - that is an over-reaction of the body’s immune system to the infection. Seems from what I’m reading that this is what’s eating up the lungs and leading to organ failures, and suppressing the cytokine levels lets the body deal with the other infection effects better.

Comment by Give Us Barabbas Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:26 pm
(1) I’d like to see strong evidence not just that the absolute number of new cases is decreasing but that the rate at which this is occurring is itself accelerating. (2) This implies dramatically expanded testing and tracking for active symptomatic cases so they can be isolated and treated. (3) But it also implies widespread serological testing to identify both asymptomatic cases and past exposure. We need to know much more about the possible development of immunity to this thing, how much and for how long. (4) Because there are doubts about creating a vaccine for this thing in the first place and then its ultimate availability, for the foreseeable future we’ll need to rely on readily accessible, effective treatments. Given my age, that is problematic for me. (5) Social distancing, mask wearing, and small group sizes have proven effective; they’d need to be continued. (6) Accurate data locally, regionally and nationally are necessary for people to make informed decisions regarding travel.

/mild rant/ I’ll add that I’m not too crazy about people saying everyone can go about their business as normal so long as the “most vulnerable” — say, us geezers — stay out of the way. Those of you advocating for or planning on that happening probably should oughta rethink it./done/

Comment by Flapdoodle Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:27 pm
==I’m willing to go back to work and send my kids back to school right now. I do not fear travel or interaction with others. ==

That seems to be one of the definitions of a Covidiot

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:29 pm
==Don’t impose ur fear and insecurities on my way of life and my liberties.==

Grow up

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:29 pm
=== Don’t impose ur fear and insecurities on my way of life and my liberties.===

Says.. “Anonymous”

The lives you’re threatening are those around you too.

Your liberty is about ending their lives… “anonymous”

I fed you. Congratulations

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:32 pm
Anonymous:

This is what the result of the recklessness of people like you would be should you get your wish to “go back to normal.”

https://capitolfax.com/2020/04/21/todays-must-read-31/#comments

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:38 pm
=There is no number that is reasonable when consider that 5 minutes after get tested you can get infected.=

Not likely if we’re testing for antibodies. You might already have those today. Without a test there’s no way to know for certain.

= I’m willing to go back to work and send my kids back to school right now.=

We can’t build an economy around you. And if there’s a lot of us that don’t feel safe what you want isn’t going to mean much. Can’t have kids in schools without teachers. Can’t crank up production if there’s no one to buy what you’re selling.

We’re not going to be able to demand that our economy reopens. It will only happen when enough people feel safe enough to enable it.

Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 1:49 pm
Looks like Evanston is going to plow forward with their Farmer’s Market.

Comment by Grate Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 2:15 pm
LOTS of testing, employer provided PPE, well along in the vaccine development effort.

Comment by Anyone Remember Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 2:21 pm
Much more testing, more than the 10,000 per day goal the Governor set. There are many more actual infections than the confirmed cases count, and there is no way to track how those infections spread the disease without more testing and testing more than just people with serious symptoms.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 4:06 pm
Obviously testing has to be ramped up significantly, and there needs to be widespread and accurate antibody testing. But there’s 2 other issues at play, asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic carriers and lack of knowledge about how protected people with antibodies actually are. Therefore, I’m not sure that the infection/antibody testing is enough and the risk to the economy to wait until there’s a vaccine is too great. That’s why for me it comes down to face coverings. I’ll stay home as much as possible until the we’re significantly off the peak (hopefully early summer) but until there’s a vaccine I hope there is widespread wearing of face coverings and I’ll use one when I go out. Once we’re past the peak, it really will come down to social distancing as much as possible, good hygiene and facial coverings because that is the only way to protect against the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers. That’s also why the Governor should have been mandating face coverings since at least the beginning of the month.

Comment by MyTwoCents Tuesday, Apr 21, 20 @ 4:10 pm