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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
For many weeks after the beginning of this COVID-19 crisis, Gov. J.B. Pritzker proved adept at telegraphing his every move.
Pritzker waited until people practically begged him to shut down the schools on March 15. He talked about issuing a stay-at-home order for days, and then acted on March 21 only after California jumped first.
It was clear for days that he would extend his stay-at-home order another month starting April 1. He talked for well over a week about a mask-wearing requirement, always noting that he was being lobbied by Republican state Rep. Mark Batinick before finally announcing the order on April 23.
People did not always agree with him, but they always had a sense of where he was going. Pritzker did get out over his skis when his Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission dramatically altered the burden of proof on COVID-19 illnesses in favor of employees without so much as a heads-up to business groups. But most regular folks never noticed that and a court intervened and stopped the order anyway.
Otherwise, the governor did a remarkably good job of making sure the public was always aware in advance of his leadership direction.
And then on May 5 he announced his “Restore Illinois” roadmap to gradually reopen the state.
To be fair, Pritzker did say for days that he was looking at a more regionalized approach to the stay-at-home order. But then he sprung his plan on the state without adequately laying the groundwork. Everyone was most definitely sure to complain about a regional map no matter what it was. People will always find a way to say they should be in a different region, particularly near borders.
But the governor has yet to come up with an easily digestible explanation for why he drew the map the way he did and, in the process, he’s left the door open to municipalities to try and form their own regions.
For instance, Peoria’s mayor is backing a regionalization plan developed in concert with his county’s public health director, a trained epidemiologist. They’re not ignoring science in Peoria, as the governor has accused local officials of doing as they push to reopen in defiance of his order. The Peoria area is using actual epidemiology to make the case for their own map because Pritzker’s map and his overall scheme don’t get them where they want to go and when they believe they should get there.
More importantly, though, Restore Illinois broke with Pritzker’s battle plan of copying others’ work. New York’s reopening plan has 10 regions to Illinois’ five, though New York is only half again as populous as Illinois. People see that and understandably wonder why our regions are so big.
New York’s plan also relies on two-week intervals to move to the next stage, as do most other state plans that don’t throw open everyone’s doors right away. Illinois’ plan includes a 28-day metric for hospitalizations. That 28-day requirement for no overall increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations has understandably rubbed a whole lot of people the wrong way.
Pritzker has a nuanced explanation for this, but he’s struggled to get it across. I asked him last week for a succinct summation and he said his plan would allow the regions to move more quickly into the next phase than “under the metrics that the White House put forth.” But the White House essentially abandoned its two-week metrics the moment they were released. People are understandably focused on Pritzker’s four weeks.
I get the governor’s pitch, but I do this for a living and most people don’t. I am also no fan of reopening too fast. It makes me feel like we’ve gone through all of this for nothing and will have to do this all over again.
Anyway, Pritzker made the mistake of introducing brand new concepts into a process that had worked well for him and the state since March.
The governor could’ve accomplished the same ultimate goals with smaller regions and by sticking with two-week metrics, opening up a couple or three things in two weeks and then several more in another two weeks. Instead, Illinoisans, especially at our thousand-plus miles of borders, may understandably feel trapped while every one of our surrounding states are opening up.
If you can’t explain a surprise announcement in a sentence or two, then it’s too darned complicated and people won’t understand. The governor needs to get back to simple copycatting as soon as humanly possible.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:24 am
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“Out over his skis…” on the IWCC fiasco is a huge understatement of how incredibly bad that move was… That was a nuclear bomb with all kinds of ramifications.
Comment by essentially working Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:35 am
Well said, Rich. Perhaps he’ll listen?
Though, I’m afraid he may be too entrenched to make changes.
Comment by Bruce (no not him) Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:56 am
Can’t wait to see the guy from Oswego’s reaction to this……
Comment by SIU Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:57 am
This was never going to go well. JB did a great job and is doing a great job steering the State through treacherous waters. His message isn’t faltering because of a failure to bureaucrat. His message is being attacked and diluted through a national disinformation campaign.
Millions of people across this country are falling prey to a sophisticated disinformation attack that is being run by Fox News, OAN, Anti-Vaxers, Russia FSB, China, and politicians. Every actor in this attack has their own goal. For most of them, the goal is to get clicks and increase their platform’s status. With Russia and China, the goal is to hurt the United States and reduce its global influence.
JB has had to respond to a global panic on his own with little federal support, while the President of the United States works with the Russian FSB to spread disinformation attacking his own country.
We’ve never experienced something like this before. The States are on their own until there is new leadership at the White House.
Comment by Merica Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:57 am
The Workers Comp Commission clearly exceeded it’s authority on this. They had their hands slapped a number of years ago for promulgating new restrictive procedural rules that resulted in some cases being suddenly dismissed without going through rulemaking as required by the state APA. Apparently they still have the attitude that all they need to do is just slap notes up on the bulletin board at the Chicago hearings location and that suffices for public notice and comment. Wrong! This one was clearly way out of bounds and should be for the legislature to decide. Personally, as a former workers comp attorney, I would favor it but it needs to be vetted properly.
As to the Governor, I really have to applaud him for sticking to his guns when others are running for cover. We are just at the start of this thing, not the end. There will need to be 70% infections to develop herd immunity and we are still in the low single digits. A vaccine may or may not be coming and may or may not work.
Those states which are opening their doors are going to have them slammed in their faces when their cases and death rates start climbing, as they surely will.
Having said that, he needs to be open to discussing not lumping the Chicago collar counties, one of whom I used to sit on the county board of, along with the city of Chicago. I realize that there can be a lot of cross contamination within that area as people go to work generally closer in to the city or in the city proper and then come home, but this should have been discussed with the counties affected ahead of time. Some sheriff’s departments and county health authorities have announced that they will refuse to enforce it. He needs to talk to those folks and get some type of consensus.
Comment by PrairieChicken Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:59 am
I prefer JB’s approach.
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, May 18, 20 @ 9:59 am
Add in May 1 was a mostly arbitrary date to begin counting from.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:01 am
===Anyway, Pritzker made the mistake of introducing brand new concepts into a process that had worked well for him and the state since March.===
When best politics butts up against best pandemic response, it’s probably better to let best pandemic response win and I am hopeful that regardless of the ability to explain it well that it’s a case of where best pandemic response won out over best political response.
We currently have community spread and reopening will allow community spread to continue — and potentially even expand. We have individuals treating refusal to take public health seriously as an act of defiance.
In truth a pandemic response is probably a complicated game where policy makers can embrace as much of a moral hazard as they want and some of our leaders clearly have chosen to operate in full embrace of that notion.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:01 am
The governor is quickly losing control over this situation. He is either going to have to take measures to enforce his plan or revise his plan.
Comment by Old Shepherd Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:05 am
==The governor could’ve accomplished the same ultimate goals with smaller regions==
Maybe stick with the current 11 IDPH regions for now, but maybe factor in the situation in a specific region’s bordering regions as a metric in moving up the levels.
Comment by Chatham Resident Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:05 am
The critics are going to get louder as the states that are opening up around us get back to normal and JB doubles-down on his plan and the enforcement efforts that he has laid out. If the legislature grants him “extended” authority through the fall (as rumored), things may spiral out of control quickly. I pray he comes to his senses soon and looks around the country to other states that are making this work with fewer restrictions in place.
Comment by RuralKing Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:06 am
We could do the Georgia and Florida model, which is cooking the books and then acting like an ostrich:
https://twitter.com/ajc/status/1262012536968396801
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:09 am
Rural King-
Let’s wait a couple more weeks before determining what other states are doing are successful.
See Texas that last couple of days.
Missouri started opening last week. They have also tested half the residents per capita than Illinois.
Comment by efudd Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:11 am
- SIU -, you are truly, honestly, the lone person who cares what I think, am thinking, or my thoughts.
My thoughts first to the governor’s messaging?
=== The governor need to do the following;
1) prepare an extensive PowerPoint laying out methodology to the orders and the regions.
2) explain within that methodology how the hot spots and larger towns and communities were factored in
3) using that explanation of hot spots known and larger towns and communities, show the hospital reach and how that factors into the phases and each reaching the next phases to open
4) highlight the current status within the regions and expectations towards the positives and negatives of opening up with and outside the guidelines.
There’s more than enough time, data, information, and science to meet those 4 expectations.===
So, reading that - SIU -, what do you think *I* think about what Rich wrote?
To the post,
Rich again and again goes to the deep issues of where thugs are, not the glossy or easy “thus seems not to be working” that reporting tends to be falling on during this pandemic.
This is biting and tasty good where there needs to be a smidge of recalibrating;
===If you can’t explain a surprise announcement in a sentence or two, then it’s too darned complicated and people won’t understand. The governor needs to get back to simple copycatting as soon as humanly possible.===
The goal of any Comms exercise is to be concise and be smart to the message. You can’t make a nuanced messaging with details too long winded to defend choices. That’s why I went all PowerPoint, if that’s their goal, then go deep-deep into the weeds. Otherwise, figure out your plan in less than 45 seconds of words and details.
You can’t be both; detailed and nuanced, brief and simple.
Impossible.
Jim Edgar discusses his words with the Governor and his own (Edgar’s) approach of not being first, in many ways our current governor has done that. The reinventing his (Pritzker’s) own plan with other benchmarks, can’t finesse differences, to cookie cutter, “copycat” plans and expect others to easily follow.
Last point.
“Everyone” seemingly has a plan.
The governor is *the* Governor. He, and his crew, has a plan they all are working. Fine. If it’s different, then it is. The communications to it need more simplicity or more clarity to nuance.
One of the other, but, going to the copy cat thought is where that crew and thus governor have been better. It’s where they are find that sweet spot in leadership too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:15 am
Thanks Rich for pointing out that Peoria’s reopening plan was developed by an epidemiologist and did not ignore science as the Governor continues to argue. Looks like public health officials in Sangamon County are making similar, science-based objections to the Governor’s plan.
It will be interesting to see how the Governor responds to these objections if asked at his daily news conference — will he lean into his past arguments that counties are ignoring science and data, or will he acknowledge that municipalities throughout Illinois are putting forward good faith, science-based plans. Keep in mind that the Governor received Peoria’s plan on 5/8/20, if he claims not to have reviewed it yet.
Comment by Downstate Region Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:18 am
Without so much as a heads up to business groups.
There is a pattern here.
Same sad situation with the largest employer in Illinois- the members of the Illinois Restaurant Association.
They have supported the administration on the minimum wage only to blindsided by the June 28th best case for opening.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:18 am
I agree with Old Shepard. The governor needs to show why the limited number of regions, or some evidence of listening. Change to 11 regions? Maybe shorten to 21 days instead of 28? The precedents being set–the governor acting alone without legislative approval–are disturbing.
Comment by ajjacksson Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:21 am
Oh, and an outstanding article by Rich.
Comment by ajjacksson Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:21 am
Georgia has been open for more than 3 weeks, well past the 14 day incubation period for the virus and their hospitals have not been overrun…Iowa and Missouri have been opening up for 2 weeks with no discernible uptick in hospitalizations. Waiting for a couple more weeks will only get us to the governors phase 3…then another 28 days for restaurants…that will be too late for many to survive. Time will tell who is correct, but there will be a heavy price to pay for those that chose the wrong path.
Comment by RuralKing Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:22 am
Rural King-
Again, Missouri has tested half the population per capita than Illinois. It has also been reported that they are suppressing Covid 19 deaths.
Cape Girardeau county has over 78,000 residents and reported no new cases three days in a row last week.
You think they are adequately testing?
Comment by efudd Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:27 am
The minute JB announced his Restore Illinois plan with the fancy charts and spreadsheets and regions and dates that made little sense was the day it became obvious that he’d turned over the process to consultants. That almost never works well as anyone who has ever been part of a consultant-led business initiative knows. As Rich points out, JB’s instincts both as governor and as a native Illinoisan mostly served him well at the beginning of the process even though everyone was basically still flying blind with respect to the coronavirus and where it might go. Facts on the ground now need to supersede decision making over the models which thankfully have turned out to be significantly wrong.
Comment by Responsa Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:28 am
efudd - testing isn’t the issue, hospitalization rate is the most important factor. If the hospitals are able to handle the needs of the region then that is the only information that is important. Most positive tests don’t result in hospitalizations
Comment by RuralKing Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:34 am
Those pretending that Gov. Pritzker is on the “wrong” side, polling says otherwise.
Pretending you’re speaking for this “movement” against… whatever… the reality is open too soon, more things will close for good.
Also,
If your ignorance is based on “look at it now” logic, you’re ignoring how effective the moves by the Governor for the state have been. Can’t say things are better and ignore the reason(s) why.
The clarity of what the plan, or thoughts, or whatever is said that people agree or disagree with coming from the Governor…
…that’s also different than the delivery of the messaging and how the clarity to it are seen.
Open is different than viable. Messaging to get to confidence for viable is the issue.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:40 am
JB has done a great job in trying to protect us, and will need to continue to do so as multiple groups seek to undermine those protections for political benefit. Illinois will likely be front and center as the state support bill gets debated in Washington. Illinois will again and again be put in a negative light rather than being recognized for its many positives in defending against the virus.
Comment by Lincoln Lad Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:45 am
The polling will change and go against the governor very quickly. There was already a softening of support last week in the poll relative to previous ones. He is losing the messaging.
Comment by Logical Thinker Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:45 am
@RuralKing You have to wait longer than 14 days. Case figures are inaccurate as many people are either asymptomatic or don’t go for testing when they have mild symptoms. Also availably of tests varies.
The only reliable figures are hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths, and those are going to lag behind. It also will take a while for the infections to get a head of steam up. Remember when it was just that “one guy in Seattle” who was “under control”. That was January 21st. The first US death on American soil was February 29. However, much earlier cases have since been detected. So it takes a while.
A previously secret government report was leaked in mid March that predicted “multiple waves” of infection extending out for 18 months. That’s what we are going to see.
The question is, how do you manage things over that period of time? Obviously you can’t keep everything shut down, so you have to have something more nuanced.
Nursing homes and other densely packed places like prisons, mental health facilities, packing plants, etc. are where most of the action is, along with health care workers and first responders.
Perhaps those people need to be restricted in their movements somehow , housed in the now vacant hotels etc.so they don’t infect their families and can be tested every day before leaving for work. The elderly need to have provisions made so they don’t have to go out to forage for food.
The others who are less vulnerable can then take their chances.
Another major source is unfortunately public transportation. You can’t help but be exposed if you are packed into an “L” car or bus twice a day.
So maybe rotating shifts so fewer people are subjected to rush hour crushes, coupled with everyone who can conceivably work from home being allowed to do so.
The regional approach taken by the Governor is a step but it needs to be refined much further and he needs to get better buy in from affected groups ahead of time. He’s not the CEO of a private business any more. Government doesn’t work that way (ie Rauner, Trump).
Comment by PrairieChicken Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:47 am
=== The polling will change and go against the governor very quickly.===
See me when it does.
Wishing for support is not having support.
I’m sure you’re counting the racist, anti-Semitics, and the national socialists in there.
Otherwise, how many others are you taking about?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:47 am
“testing isn’t the issue”
OK, dude, we’re done.
Comment by efudd Monday, May 18, 20 @ 10:51 am
I’m interested to see how the administration / Gov will respond to protests, alternative opening plans focused on a single region or, as in Peoria’s case, carving out a new region for itself and surrounding counties to E and S. One does rather wonder what hospital hub nearby counties to the W and N are expected to use in their plan, given that Peoria (OSF, Unity Point) serves as the hospital hub for these counties too. Remember that the four regions are geographical and based on hospital / ICU capacity within each.
No plan was going to be perfect or respond to everyone’s perceived needs in exactly the way they themselves perceived those needs.
Northern Illinois has been heading to Wisconsin to have fun, and I’m assuming more or less the same is happening along the Mississippi border. So we’re going to see more community spread downstate over the next weeks and months, it can’t be helped when there’s no coordinated national-level plan or series of standards consistently applied and enforced.
I would like to better understand why the IDPH’s 11 regions weren’t used instead. (Just went to the IDPH site and saw an explanation, more elaboration would be helpful.)
Comment by dbk Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:07 am
Obviously the Support of the at home still on the payroll State Workers and Pensioners remains strong.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:08 am
Correct me if I’m wrong but as I understand it COVID19 is brand new. There is no historical data to base decisions on. “We” attempted to flatten the curve to make sure we didn’t over run the hospitals and health care facilities. From reviewing the data on the IDPH website, all metrics are coming down rapidly in all Regions. JB uses rolling averages for his metrics within a phase but when going to next phase, the same rolling average begins a new.
See what’s going on here? He is attempting to string this out by using an arbitrary start date to ensure that you can’t move to the next phase for a minimum of 28 days. If you use a rolling average, use it through all phases!
Comment by Swimdad13 Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:17 am
I wish there were one of you covering the city of Chicago through all of this. MLL is whipping by the Chicago press without any accountability and it certainly isn’t because she’s using smart messaging.
Comment by La Dictadora Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:18 am
Operating within a system that values money over human life is the actual issue…no one wants to discuss…honestly.
Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:26 am
The issue is not “money over human life.” Consider a man in his early 30s, married, his wife doesn’t work, he has two kids, and hasn’t worked for two months. He has not worked for two months, and he has no money. What about is life? What about the life of his kids?
I’m not saying, “open up.” I’m saying, thinking that it’s money over human life is too simplistic. No one–including JB–is 100% right or 100% wrong. The man we elected gets to make the decisions in the best interest of the people. He needs to convince us of that–explain the number of regions, for example–but it’s not money over life. It’s not that simple.
Comment by ajjacksson Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:50 am
==A previously secret government report was leaked in mid March that predicted “multiple waves” of infection extending out for 18 months. That’s what we are going to see.==
This secret report (if it existed) is an example of the modeling that was being used for decision making back in March and early April. It was on these models that concern about the availability of hospital beds for Covid patients was born and what led to the Javits Center and McCormick place being built up as back-up emergency field hospitals. That both javits and McCormick beds have now been completely closed down should be ample proof that neither the Feds or locals now believe that the early models can be believed or effectively used.
Comment by Responsa Monday, May 18, 20 @ 11:58 am
===Those pretending that Gov. Pritzker is on the “wrong” side, polling says otherwise.===
I believe the standard practice for scientific polling in the Eastern Bloc is to spend a few minutes reading Facebook statuses from right leaning, right wing astroturffed, or foreign astroturffed, Facebook pages in order to continue to believe y’all have support.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, May 18, 20 @ 12:06 pm
Downstate- thank you for the daily reminder about ardis’s plan to reopen the tricounty economy at the expense of the public health and safety. /s
Comment by Huh? Monday, May 18, 20 @ 12:19 pm
Downstate - Who was the client of the epidemiologist? Did the expert prepare a document at the direction of the client and had a predetermined outcome?
Because that is what it looks like from the outside.
Comment by Huh? Monday, May 18, 20 @ 12:30 pm
This is well stated Rich.
I hope some in the statehouse or close to the governor pass it along.
I noticed the governor was copycatting from the start by following what CA, NY, and OH were doing for their plans. However this “plan” to “Restore Illinois” feels messy. There is a small amount of applause deserved for trying to be original, but the plan still isn’t clear enough. Have there be a hotline or a “suggestion box” on IDPH’s site.
As with any plan, there is room for improvement; but before people start completely losing their minds, it needs cleared up.
I also want to thank you Rich for this line, “If you can’t explain a surprise announcement in a sentence or two, then it’s too darned complicated and people won’t understand”.
As a communications major, someone who understands that makes me happy.
Comment by Still South of I-80 Monday, May 18, 20 @ 12:36 pm
Rich, this is very well done. There is a lot of frustration from downstate, rural Illinois and I think you articulated it fantastically. I’m sure it’s appreciated even though it’s highly doubtful that the Governor will actually listen.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, May 18, 20 @ 2:22 pm
==neither the Feds or locals now believe that the early models can be believed or effectively used==
I love the argument that says that since things didn’t turn out the way the models projected they might then the models are to be ignored. Did any of you geniuses ever think that the reason that is the case is due to the actions that the states have taken?
==That both javits and McCormick beds have now been completely closed down==
You act like that’s a bad thing?
Comment by Demoralized Monday, May 18, 20 @ 3:45 pm