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* The headline is not a typo. Click here and scroll down and you’ll see Chicago’s population was 2,695,652 on April 1, 2010 and it was estimated at 2,693,976 on July 1, 2019. That’s a decrease of 1,676. I ran it through the calculator three times.
Yes, lots of people have moved out of Illinois, but that’s not the full story. More importantly, other cities and states have seen significant population increases during the same time period…
Since 2010, populations in cities in the southern and western regions of the United States experienced rapid growth. The South leads the way with 10 of the top 15 fastest-growing large U.S. cities, with a population of 50,000 or more, according to new population estimates for cities and towns, the Census Bureau reports today.
“Frisco, Texas, tops the list of the fastest-growing large cities with a growth rate of 71.1%, increasing its population by more than half since April 1, 2010,” says Amel Toukabri, chief of the Local Government Estimates and Migration Processing Branch in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. For a complete list, see fastest-growing large cities 2010-2019.
With respect to numeric change, cities in Texas are among those that have added the most people this decade. Collectively, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth and Dallas increased by almost 933,600 people. This equals 39.5% of the roughly 2.4 million increase by the top 15 numeric gainers.
Among the 15 U.S. cities or towns with populations of 50,000 or more as of April 1, 2010, that had the largest numeric increases since 2010, eight were located in the South, five in the West, and one each in the Northeast and the Midwest. Phoenix, Ariz., tops the list of the 15 largest numeric gainers with an increase of over 234,300 people or an average of 25,330 people per year between 2010 and 2019. Aside from New York, New York, and Columbus, Ohio, the other cities making up the list of the largest numeric gainers were located in the South or West.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:21 pm
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Wow! If that holds up in the actual 2020 Census count, that will be amazing. I was anticipating much worse.
Comment by Northsider Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:26 pm
Estimated
Comment by Key Word Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:32 pm
That’s all?
Comment by Just Me 2 Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:32 pm
That is just numbers for Chicago more interesting to se demographic changes.
Comment by DuPage Saint Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:36 pm
===That is just numbers for Chicago===
Wow, Sherlock. You’re right! lol
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:39 pm
Well that doesn’t sound right. I’ve been told numerous times by certain commenters here at Capfax that tens of thousands of people have left Illinois because the wealthy can’t make a living here with such high taxes so they all left for Florida and Texas years ago. Surely those commenters know more than the US Census Bureau.
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:47 pm
13 of 15 large cities with the most growth include perks such as not shoveling snow and scraping windshields.
People leave for lots of reasons including the seasons.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:48 pm
Seven county region is only down 1,787. Whole State is down 158,811.
Comment by Proud Sucker Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 2:56 pm
It appears the large population loss projected for Illinois will result in less legislative representation for southern Illinois. How many and which of the R’s won’t have a chair when the music stops? s/
Comment by Retired Statie Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:01 pm
== How many and which of the R’s won’t have a chair when the music stops? ==
Well Bailey doesn’t seem interested in legislating, so maybe he’ll volunteer.
Comment by Homebody Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:04 pm
You mean the Chicago Tribune’s repeated editorials about an Illinois Exodus were overblown??? Color me not surprised.
As I have mentioned in previous comments, the people going to the South and Southwest is a short term solution. From what I have read the future climate in the US will be a hotter and more humid south with more rain, hurricanes, etc. and a hotter and drier western half of the country. Other than cities like San Francisco and Seattle, I do not see the long term advantages of living in the West or South.
The coasts will eventually be under water or experience constant flooding and the southern half of the country will be hotter.
Lastly, water. Water will become in increasingly scarce resource and being by a freshwater source like the Great Lakes will be a huge advantage.
In looking at the data, several of the cities with large decreases are Rust Belt cities. Again this may be short term as the larger cities become increasingly expensive, people will move to smaller cities. And in the not too distant future when oil/gasoline becomes expensive more people will be living in small cities.
Comment by Big Jer Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:06 pm
Hey Rich, just a reminder, be kind. lol
Comment by Smalls Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:15 pm
With the US fertility rate at 1.7 then without immigration the whole US population will fall. The world outside of Africa is expected to be falling by mid century.
We have had some immigrants from Congo. Many have been working at the slaughterhouses.
Comment by Not a Billionaire Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:15 pm
1,676 people have moved out of Chicago…and every one has written an editorial for the Tribune titled “Why I’m Leaving Chicago.”
Seriously, population change has so many facets (birth/death rates, domestic vs. foreign immigration, etc.) it’s foolish to attribute it all to any one cause, like “taxes” or “weather.” I wish everyone would keep that in mind
Comment by Benjamin Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:21 pm
Update:
== 1,676 people have moved out of Chicago…and every one has written [five] editorial[s] for the Tribune titled “Why I’m Leaving Chicago.” ==
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:27 pm
=We have had some immigrants from Congo. Many have been working at the slaughterhouses.=
Low wage imported serf labor by corporate America. These types of jobs were always tough but they used to be very well paying for lower skilled Americans.
Read the following and one will get a better perspective:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/29/business/economy/storm-lake-iowa-immigrant-workers.html
Comment by OpentoDiscussion Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:39 pm
So all of the state’s population loss over a decade greater than 1,676 came from elsewhere. I suspect rural areas lost more than Chicago did.
Comment by anon2 Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:39 pm
John Kass moved back to Chicago, so there’s that. Even though we didn’t want him.
Comment by JoanP Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:41 pm
I have been googling for more information in confidence intervals for these estimates. No luck so far but apparently a 90% confidence level is the Census Bureau standard.
Comment by very old soil Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:53 pm
Let’s quit worrying about population loss. Once we deal with the Ponzi scheme nature of our social security system, a smaller population will provide many benefits to our country. Couples in North America and Europe have already voluntarily decided to reduce their births below replacement levels and if other nations are prevented from dumping their excess population on those areas, maybe they will too. Young people will have less competition for jobs and higher wages and will pay far less for housing. We will have a chance to slow climate change and wildlife habitat will be protected from urban sprawl giving threatened species a chance to survive. The benefits will be many and varied.
Comment by striketoo Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 3:54 pm
Joan P for the win. but let’s hope people everywhere in Illinois answer the census. it’s so easy.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 4:18 pm
The fun part is going to try and figure out where all those people in Phoenix are going to go when they run out of more than half of their potable water supply in the next few decades. Say what you want about the Chicago area, but they have water in spades.
Comment by benniefly2 Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 4:36 pm
Looking at the county level, Cook went from 5,199,016 in 2010 to 5,150,233 in 2019, so the county as a whole drained far more than the city, nearly 50k. I’d suspect most of the loss is from the south suburbs and the near west.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 4:45 pm
It’s also useful to look at NE Illinois as a whole. Kane, Kendall and Will helped keep the boat afloat the last 9 years.
2000-2019
Cook -48,783
DuPage +4,938
Kane +17,134
Lake -6,927
McHenry -1,338
Will +11,919
Kendall +13,617
Region -9,440
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 5:11 pm
Ah, fun with numbers. City of Chicago loss is 0.06% estimated. Seems like within a margin of error for these studies, but I’m not statistician.
For fun I looked at the top growth cities/townships in Illinois. 12 of 15 for growth are the outer reaches of the greater Chicago metro region. I should dig further to see what the +/- for the region as a whole is.
Another notable is Chatham being #10 on the State rank for growth cities. That sticks out to me due to articles highlighted here in CapFax about education resources and discrepancies (if my memory is working).
Comment by From DaZoo Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 5:13 pm
Six Degrees saved me some work. Thanks.
Comment by From DaZoo Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 5:19 pm
Interesting. I wonder if improved counting methodology is a factor?
Comment by Ken_in_Aurora Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 5:23 pm
=I suspect rural areas lost more than Chicago did.=
Rural Illinois, and America, is dying. There are many factors and people like Bailey are part of the problem not the solution. These areas are dead red and yet America is pumping enormous amounts of government money into the areas.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 7:18 pm
Thats it? I thought people were fleeing the city? You mean the Tribune and various conservative politicians were wrong?
Lets see what Kristen has to say about this development.
Comment by low level Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 7:50 pm
Kass moved to the city? So I won’t run into him at the local hardware store anymore? Woohoo.
Comment by West Side the Best Side Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 9:26 pm
JS Mill, the virus & the apparent role of density in transmission may do a lot of small towns a lot of good in attracting/retaining residents if more people can/will work from home most days.
Comment by Blake Thursday, May 21, 20 @ 10:05 pm