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* Sun-Times…
The virus that has raced around the globe and killed more than 100,000 in the U.S. alone has yet to reach one small community in Illinois.
Scott County, with a population of about 4,951, is the only one of Illinois’ 102 counties that has not yet reported a single case of COVID-19.
The mayor of Winchester, the 1,458-population county seat, suspects it’s because so few people move in and out, lowering the risk of anyone bringing the virus in.
The local public health official thinks they might have actually had a few cases early on, but no one was getting tested back then.
Some residents — particularly the younger crowd — think the whole pandemic has been overblown.
“We think it’s more political than anything,” said Dalton Schoenfelder, 20, a laid-off factory worker. “It’s not as bad as people portray it out to be.”
* This is some of what I told subscribers last week…
Excess deaths is a phenomenon that has been widely reported in other states and countries. The number of deaths since the pandemic began has exceeded the total of average expected deaths plus the number of known COVID-19 deaths, sometimes by huge amounts. [Illinois Department of Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike] said [a few weeks ago] that a review would eventually be conducted here which averaged death counts from 2018 and 2019 and then compared that number to deaths this year.
So, that’s what we did. We FOIA’d data from IDPH on a county-by-county basis for March and April of 2018 and 2019, added in known COVID-19 deaths per county in those two months and came up with 1,893.5 excess deaths in Illinois, or 10.5 percent above the number of average expected deaths plus coronavirus deaths.
What that means is, almost 1,900 more Illinoisans passed away in those two months this year than can be accounted for. And nobody yet knows why.
The biggest percentage increases were all in Downstate. The highest such increase was in tiny Scott County (population a bit over 5,000), which saw a 200 percent increase above 2018/2019 average deaths. But the base numbers are so small that I can’t be sure they mean anything. The county is one of only two with no reported COVID deaths in March and April (or May, for that matter), but its average deaths over the last two years was 3, and this March and April it recorded 9 deaths. Could those extra 6 actually be coronavirus deaths? Could they be an anomaly? Could it be something else?
The complete spreadsheet is here.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:23 am
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“It’s not as bad as people portray it out to be.”
Small town thinking that keeps a town small.
Anna had a BLM protest yesterday. Facebook had garbage on it about looting, violence, etc.
A number of residents and business owners believed it.
Protesters assembled peacefully, with no incident, many were young.
Small town, small thinking, leads to exodus of young people with options.
Comment by efudd Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:30 am
Arguing about percent changes in really small numbers is not sensible. Compare March 2018 and 2019 numbers in many counties, and you’ll see changes of 700% or more. One increased by infinity.
Covid might have been in Scott County, but this is not the way to show it.
Comment by Simple Simon Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:49 am
Maybe I am misreading this, but if I’m not, it’s not shocking. We’ve required people to stay away from doctors. Cancelled all ‘elective’ procedures. Screenings aren’t/weren’t being done. And some senior citizens are dying prematurely because they’ve been wasting away in despair, unable to have the visits from loved ones and engage in the activities that tend to keep them going. All while most hospitals in the state are at or below normal occupancy and do not have enough business to remain fully staffed.
By narrowly focusing on one public health issue at the expense of all others, we may have created an even greater problem.
Comment by I'm Here Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:49 am
If there is actually at least 1 case in Scott County, since the nearest hospital is in Jacksonville, could it have been counted in the Morgan County totals? Same if the patient was transferred to Springfield’s hospitals (Sangamon County).
Comment by Chatham Resident Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:52 am
=If there is actually at least 1 case in Scott County, since the nearest hospital is in Jacksonville, could it have been counted in the Morgan County totals?=
Tracking typically ties back to the individuals county of residence, not where treatment is rendered. That’s an important aspect of looking at community spread.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:56 am
===Arguing about percent changes in really small numbers===
Did you not read what I wrote? “But the base numbers are so small that I can’t be sure they mean anything.”
Some of y’all are arguing about loopholes that aren’t even there. It gets tiring.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 9:58 am
The COVID problems are far from over, but there seems to be some reason for optimism that as the infection stats decrease, the economy will slowly but surely improve. Let’s say its over in 6 months - there will be (hopefully) several non-biased studies on how/what/when/ relative to the virus and how it was handled. There will be evidence that things should have or should not have been done. BUT, I will not blame those who had been given the heavy burden of making difficult decisions. I will assume they made the best decisions they could toward the end of keeping citizens safe. The Peanut Gallery is always active, but rarely helpful.
Comment by Sayitaintso Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:02 am
Rich, indeed I did read it, and the spreadsheet. I’m sorry if I was a little blunt, but I didn’t know how else to say it. The numbers are so small and variable that any analysis is statistically pointless, not simply questionable or unknown. I liked seeing the data, though.
Comment by Simple SImon Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:04 am
what I would like to know, and haven’t been able to find yet this morning, is the number of Scott County residents tested? That’s always what I look for when a community/county/area starts crowing about they aren’t affected. Testing numbers and subsequent positivity rate. Also testing per capita
Comment by DownSouth Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:05 am
I traveled through Calhoun, Scott, etc. counties this past Wed, and had lunch at a well-known spot on the river. What an eye-opener. Lots of hateful signs in yards about Pritzker, and MAGA flags. The only thing the restaurant had going to be safe was that eating was outside (a sunny and windy day). Wait staff wore no masks or gloves, passed out menus from a pile, cleaned tables and waited without washing hands.
Last week I stopped at Big-R in Springfield and was surprised to see NO ONE wearing masks, plexiglass at checkouts but not the parts counter - you get the picture. I am surprised things aren’t worse than they are.
Comment by Xeno Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:07 am
I think that Dalton who believes that it isn’t as bad as portrayed and is a political stunt should get his laid-off self of Facebook and Twitter and get a job at a local nursing home.
Comment by The Way I See It Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:21 am
Even with small base numbers we can calculate the statistical likelihood that a deviation from the mean is by chance. In this case we can ask, what is the likelihood that 9 deaths are due to random fluctuations when the average is 3. The answer is 0.3% to get exactly 9 deaths, or 0.4% to get 9 or more deaths in Scott county purely by chance in those two months.
Comment by muon Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:22 am
Yes on testing. If you never test anyone, you don’t have a problem. Small towns are by nature, secluded as compared to big cities/suburban areas. That alone helps keep things contained. But just let one “outsider” in………
Comment by AnonymousOne Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:23 am
I’m sorry, muon, but that is not sensible. A sample size of 2? Just because you can calculate something doesn’t mean you should. Start with 20 years of data and then see how it goes. Look at the data from the other counties to see how the number can vary year to year. No one would accept an opinion poll of two people, nor should they.
Comment by Simple Simon Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 10:31 am
“ Could those extra 6 actually be coronavirus deaths? ”
Did they not FOIA the death certs too? As it requires reviewing *9*, it should be a manageable task.
And I ask that with an understanding that it still may be inconclusive as to some number of them, as the current thinking is that covid may cause serious non-respiratory consequences, too.
If all 9 are “pneumonia” deaths, that would be a strong indication that *some* are covid related, but if they are all hospice-type, or accidents, then the opposite.
Comment by Chris Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 11:30 am
I’m Here–elective procedures were canceled due to lack of PPE. Or do you want your elective procedure without it? A completely avoidable problem if only we had acted sooner on figuring out how to get more PPE made in the US
Comment by Groundhog Day Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 11:45 am
“ any analysis is statistically pointless”
Any analysis based solely on the variance in death count, sure. Stats don’t work well with small numbers, as you can’t get a representative sample.
If they were to include cause of death, then it *could* be statistically relevant, in relation to covid.
Comment by Chris Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 11:52 am
Simple Simon - the math of statistics applies to any sample size. If the sample is small then the margin of error is larger. A larger MoE doesn’t invalidate the result or make it not sensible. I’d love to have a 20 year sample to use as the average, but if that 20 year average is between 2 and 4 it won’t change the conclusion much.
Comment by muon Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 11:55 am
If the Flu found your podunk county then Covid will eventually. Morgan county has been steady at 34 cases for a month or more until last week and now it has crept up to 42. Must be some outsiders snuck in. GD is right about PPE. Its still a problem. Dentists can’t get N95’s. And now that we know that this is airborne and we all need masks…why aren’t they making N95’s for everyone ? We have about 5-6 months to get ready for 2nd round…
Comment by Anotheretiree Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 12:22 pm
Tried downloading the spreadsheet to see the detail, but I can’t seem to get it. Is there a fix?
Comment by Downstate Dem Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 12:57 pm
I was told by the Morgan Co. rumor mill that their one death was an 84 year old election Judge who got it during the March primary in Lynnville…which is as close to Scott Co as you can get..it’s just luck they don’t have a case yet..
Comment by Anotherretiree Friday, Jun 5, 20 @ 1:12 pm