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More bad news for Illinois, with one very tiny bright spot

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Illinois

* WalletHub…

With states opening up and the national unemployment rate now at 13.3% compared to the nearly historic high of 14.7% at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, WalletHub today released its report on the States Whose Unemployment Rates Are Bouncing Back Most, along with accompanying videos and audio files, to illustrate which areas of the country have had the best recovery so far.

This report examines unemployment rates on a monthly basis, complementing the weekly analysis in WalletHub’s report on the States Whose Unemployment Claims Are Recovering the Quickest.

In order to identify the states with the best recovery in unemployment rates, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on four key metrics. We looked at the change in each state’s unemployment rate during the latest month for which we have data (May 2020) compared to May 2019 and January 2020. We also compared not seasonally adjusted continued claims in May 2020 to May 2019. Finally, we considered each state’s overall unemployment rate. Below, you can see highlights from the report, along with a WalletHub Q&A.

Unemployment Recovery in Illinois (1=Most Recovered, 25=Avg.):

• 313.77% Change in Unemployment (May 2020 vs May 2019)

o 920,610 unemployed people in May 2020 vs 222,493 in May 2019;
o 14th worst recovery in the U.S.

• 263.43% Change in Unemployment (May 2020 vs January 2020)

o 920,610 unemployed people in May 2020 vs 253,312 in January 2020;
o 12th worst recovery in the U.S.

• 801.93% Change in Not Seasonally Adjusted Continued Claims (May 2020 vs May 2019)

o 762,367 continued claims in May 2020 vs 84,526 in May 2019
o 5th best recovery in the U.S.

• 14.70% Unemployment Rate (May 2020)

o 10th worst recovery in the U.S.

More here.

* Definition of continued claims…

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 11:39 am

Comments

I’m not surprised the Illinois recovery is a little behind other states. As Hinz said in his article which was posted elsewhere, our State has been very aggressive in fighting COVID, unlike Florida and other red states that ignored the problem and “went back to work” too early.

Comment by Just Me 2 Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 12:14 pm
My first reaction to this was to wonder why someone was looking at recoveries when the pandemic is clearly ongoing and catching up with places that scored higher because they opened up earlier (e.g., AZ). My second reaction, after reading the methodology, was that this study doesn’t really address recovery, but rather the depth of the impact. Led by NV and HI, places where the main industry is tourism are devastated and will remain so, with no avenues for recovery until a vaccine comes along. I also note that almost all of the experts commented that states are unable to address these issues other than raising taxes on the rich and asking the feds for help, so the study is unhelpful to people who want to compare state policy actions.

Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 12:15 pm
One cannot view COVID19 “success” in a vacuum.

The more severe restrictions imposed in Illinois likely did result in fewer cases to this point; but came at a real cost - which is not just economic - for society. Future generations will debate if it were the correct approach. I imagine that most of us currently have our own opinions. There is a pretty simple experiment to test it that some people kindly conducted for us though.

The riots & protests… If they result in a surge of covid cases, the severe restrictions were a good idea. If the riots & protests don’t result in a surge of cases, the severe restrictions weren’t a good idea.

Comment by logic not emotion Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 1:23 pm
@ logic not emotion @ 1:23 pm –

Here, let me fix it for you: The riots & protests… If they result in a surge of covid cases – or if they don’t result in a surge of covid case – trying to correlate them to the severe restrictions without taking into account the many intervening variables (time and place, underlying community transmission rates, indoor or outdoor location, crowd density, social distancing, etc.) isn’t a good idea.

Comment by olddog Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 1:37 pm
At least the protests were outside.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 1:39 pm
Look at the numbers and tell me how much more effective Illinois has been fighting Covid than other large states.

You must be grading on a curve or be an ideologue

State Fatalities per Million Tests Confirmed Fatality
Cases Rate

New York 31,301 1,609.0 3,500,808 412,497 7.59%

New Jersey 13,077 1,472.3 1,267,399 172,570 7.58%

Illinois 6,671 526.4 - 1,379,003 137,224 4.86%

Pennsylvania 6,521 509.4 685,003 87,211 7.48%

Michigan 6,109 611.7 1,077,644 68,197 8.96%

California 5,565 140.8 3,411,686 184,951 3.01%

Florida 3,256 151.6 1,641,838 103,503 3.15%

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 1:58 pm
Those are cases to date, LP. Your numbers are looking to change soon as the early opening states tank, unfortunately.

BTW, the case numbers had much more to do with access to virus spreaders than steps taken by the states. NY and IL were early to see cases, and therefore had more spread prior to effective lockdown. You’re one to talk about blinding ideology. How much worse would it have been but for the lockdown? See Texas and AZ in a month. Even Ohio is going back up despite their early lockdown due to an early opening.

Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 2:11 pm
Some states like Flordia are under- reporting their COVID-19 numbers.

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 2:46 pm
Hey Logic Not Emotion, I saw plenty of protesters wearing masks…confounding your too simple experiment… logically leaping.

Comment by Dotnonymous Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 3:04 pm
The state of Wisconsin opened up completely except for Milwaukee on May 13th.

We were told by politicians including JB and the media they were doomed

As usual, the spin was not to be confused with the facts

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/coronavirus/tracking/covid-19-cases-testing-and-deaths-in-wisconsin.html

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 3:07 pm
LP, cases are rising in 26 states, most of which opened early. I think you’re ignoring the forest for the trees. And Wisconsin is not the clear success you think, having gone up and down a lot and recently trending back up. Not as bad as some predicted, but perhaps the Milwaukee lockdown had a lot to do with that.

Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 4:28 pm
LP

I really think the only reason you are allowed to continue to comment is for the comedic value of your comments.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 4:30 pm
All this talk of unemployment recovery, or how States are doing re cases is like saying the Cubs won the game and it’s the 3rd inning. Let’s wait and see when this thing is all said and done we’re were at. Illinois was unfortunate to be hit hard early, but now other states are catching up.

Comment by MyTwoCents Tuesday, Jun 23, 20 @ 5:44 pm